Comments on: New Home Sales Fall 34%

By: thetanman

thetanman — Fri, 29 May 2009 02:11:32 +0000

The mortgage market unlocked and the bond auction was normal. If we had a spike like yesterday, the stock market would have been way down.

By: Cursive

Cursive — Fri, 29 May 2009 00:52:10 +0000

@thetanman 7:05

If nothing changed in the mortgage rate market today, why did we have a reversal this afternoon?

By: Barry Ritholtz exposes the state of journalism « Stocks Go Up. Stocks Go Down.

Fri, 29 May 2009 00:52:07 +0000

[...] Ritholtz exposes the state of journalism Jump to Comments All this mockery can’t help prop up today’s journalism: The usual headlines got it wrong: • Bloomberg: New-Home Sales in U.S. Climbed 0.3% to 352,000 [...]

By: thetanman

thetanman — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:05:56 +0000

Here’s the cause for the sell off yesterday

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/mortgage-market-locks-up.html

By: hopeImwrong

hopeImwrong — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:33:39 +0000

The HIW post of the day award goes to Andy T at 3:51pm.
– Take away: Truth is stranger than fiction.
Yesterday’s post of the day went to Karen for comments on kids, family, pets, and TV watching.
– My take: I’d prefer a war on TV, to a war on drugs. TV does more damage.

By: I-Man

I-Man — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:24:19 +0000

So Left,

Would you be scaling out of DBA on a impending USD rally?

That DBA has had a nice run off that breakout from 25… trend still strong to me, but the dollar could throw a wrench in that no? Dont want to overthink it though, if the trend is up, its up.

USO keeps throwing me for a loop tho- after bailing on my SCO last week, I’m thinking we are just in consolidation mode, and that the uptrend still has some juice to 45. (That’s USO 45) I dont have conviction on that just yet, but it might be a good hedge on my equity shorts to get long some USO.

By: Onlooker from Troy

Onlooker from Troy — Thu, 28 May 2009 21:01:45 +0000

I refi’d in late Dec to a 15 yr fixed at 4.25 plus a point, soon after the initial Fed talk about getting rates down. I thought I might have jumped the gun at the time and would regret the lower rates that might come. But it appears that’s not an issue. I didn’t follow rates closely over the last 5 months but I don’t think I missed the bottom by much.

And since then it’s apparently been a real pain in the butt to go through the process with most lenders, from what I’ve heard (long waits as the banks, et al were swamped with too little help on hand). Mine was painless. 2 weeks from applying to close. At least I’ve done something right lately. :)

By: leftback

leftback — Thu, 28 May 2009 20:55:31 +0000

I never trade the UUP. I just short everything in sight – it’s a “deflation, deleveraging, dollar rally” trade.
Took a beating today. On the wrong side of the oil trade. Serves me right for hubristic posting last evening. :-(

By: ben22

ben22 — Thu, 28 May 2009 20:51:25 +0000

I thought there could be downside on the USD index to 77 so I set the stop accordingly in case it breaks through that.

By: ben22

ben22 — Thu, 28 May 2009 20:50:44 +0000

leftback,

I see the exact same and bought UUP via a limit order at 24 today with a tight stop. This is only for a trade as I think the real dollar strength comes after this countertrend rally is finally over, and I don’t think it is yet.