From my analysis it seems that these numbers are a good leading indicator for market tops, but no so good for market bottoms.

Take a look and let me know what you think.. thanks :

Building Permits Analysis

Agree with everything – housing, durable goods, unemployment all terrible, but the market is still UP?? I call it the “propaganda bubble”

Great – I am going to watch that video before I go to sleep tonight.

I normally watch Bloomberg before bed, and as soon as I hear the drone about 3rd quarter recovery, Armageddon been avoided, green shoots, housing bottom, China single handedly moving the World out of recession, I am normally in la la land well before my 30 minute auto shut down kicks in.

People need to keep their eyes on pricing. Sales of existing homes where 45% of sales are distressed, new houses languishing for a year. A 15% price drop is a direct hit to builder’s bottom line — plus inventory maintenance costs over a year. 12% of mortgages are in arrears/foreclosure. . . unemployment continuing to chug along at 626k 4-week MA.

Highly recommend the terrific 2007 Elizabeth Warren lecture video Bruce posted yesterday when they’ve got a spare hour.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A also at http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/13534/The_Coming_Collapse_of_the_Middle_Class/

GM to Announce 14 Plant Closures Monday

So much for the unemployment rate…and where are those census workers??

Good point re: Median #months on the market

This is what David Rosenberg was saying about that today

“Keep an eye on the unsold inventory (was 10.7 months’ supply in March — needs to dip below 8.0
months’ supply before home prices bottom out).

relative to rates rising (conforming from 4.750% on tuesday closing at 5.375% yesterday) will kill the refi market for awhile. rates hung in the mid-to-high 4′s range for so long, it will take a while for the public mindset change to kick-in again.

i live in a nice, quiet neighborhood in carmel (burb just north of Indy). my neighbor had his house listed for about 10 months, 3 price reductions, no offers.. . none. at least he didn’t dump it and kill the rest of us.

Re: Cramer “June bottom” call…

I lived in Italy for 12 years…

There was this highway through the mountains being repaired (the E45 stretch between Cesena and San Sepolcro)…So they had to close down the main highway and re-route traffic through these small winding roads (which made about a 12 mile stretch take about an hour to navigate because of all the trucks passing)…

Anyway, they hung a sign out at the DETOUR saying “Grand Re-Opening June!”…

That was in 1998…I moved back here to the US in 2006 and the sign was still there…

So JUNE, YES, Cramer might be right…WHICH June is a tricker question