Took forever to get home from Indianapolis yesterday — 90 minute flight, with weather and congestion delays. took far too many hours. I am still recovering, but it was a great conference and the trip was well worth it. I love speaking to sophisticated farmers and ranchers who run a cooperative power association — surprisingly savvy folks, smarter than the geniuses who caused the meltdown.

Anyhow, I have a a few posts today after the open today, but here’s what I am looking at this morning:

Why the Bulls Just Won’t Die (Barron’s)

Profit Rebound Still Has Long Climb Back (WSJ)

Profits Squeezed at the Margin (Barron’s)

Banks Balk at U.S. Push to Rein In Derivatives (WSJ)More Homeowners Facing Foreclosure (NYT)

Bernanke Bid to Lift Housing Scuttled by Rising Rates, Defaults (Bloomberg)

Borrowers with good credit fuel foreclosures in 1Q (AP)

Did the CRA cause the mortgage market meltdown? (Minnesota Fed)

The Big Banks’ Best Friend in Washington (Washington Post)

Credit Relief May Not Last Long (NYT)

Roubini Finds Economy Even He Can Be Bullish On (Bloomberg)

Banks’ Appraisal Conflicts Could Continue Under New HVCC Rules Cuomo’s office: “GSE’s knew they were buying loans with appraisal fraud…” : “Outside industry experts on Bank of America’s advisory council, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they had hoped Countrywide’s shady past would be cleaned up within a year of the new ownership. But nearly a year later, we’ve learned that the Charlotte-based BofA has simply assumed the same practices that branded Countrywide a financial predator.”

Category: Financial Press, Weblogs

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

225 Responses to “New Posts . . .”

  1. call me ahab says:

    DL-

    no doubt- because it is on top of everything else including the income tax- from a philosophical perspective- I believe in a consumption tax- as opposed to an income tax-

    I think there is some merit to the idea of increased opportunities- for instance- DL wants to open up his own surfboard company- but- keeps the secure job pushing paper because it provides health care benefits for his family- too much risk to leave

    knowing that your family is covered however- DL gets a bit of savings together and starts making surfboards- revolutionizing the industry- and creates hundreds of jobs-

    that is the upside

  2. Mike in Nola says:

    green shoots:
    Even Bloomberg has joined the cheerleading. Has Timmy been around to see them with a bazooka in his pocket? This article was rightly dubbed “the Orwellian post of the day” on some blog:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZhCpkVnhzo4

    Similarly here:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/05/pangloss-watch-japans-industrial.html

    The market is even showing signs you see late in bull markets, like crap being pedalled. Looka this Souther Cal Reit offering. Anybody want some:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kilroy-prices-public-offering-apf-15381048.html?.v=1

  3. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    Although I’ll say something…When you look at that 10/6 – 10/7, 2008 let’s call it a GAP (even though it wasn’t technically)…I’ll bet there are a lot who’d like to see that GAP filled in with some trading…

    Look at the Goldman Sachs chart right now…

    It’s making every effort to “fill in” the gaps from March 17th of last year & September 15th of last year…

  4. ben22 says:

    Mike,

    Another nice post.

    On another note, who really cares what Franklin says anymore. Seriously. There are probably 50 posts a day just in response to his nonsense. It’s clogging up the blog. Then again, this happened with borchers and otto and cinefoz as well.

  5. Mannwich says:

    @Transor & ahab: Employer-based coverage has created a whole population of Zombie employees who only stay for the health care that covers them and their families. Like many things in the U.S. today, the model is completely broken and needs to be fixed. It’s all about the WILL to do it and crush the special interests. I can’t believe that we’re not creative enough as a country to come up with the best of other country’s plans and put our spin on it. It’s beyond absurd that people are having their lives destroyed through a health event in such a rich country as ours. We should be able to come up with a system that makes sense and covers everyone to SOME degree (but ensuring that everyone pitches in some $$$ as well) on preventatitive and catastrophic care. And the market for extra services would always be there and could be offered to those who can afford it.

  6. Mike in Nola says:

    commodities
    A repeat of last year, showing that most money managers have really short memories. Or are confident they can always find greater fools. Starting to hear stories to justify the speculation, e.g. “Saudi’s want $70 oil,” as if the Saudi’s had any control over price. If they had, it wouldn’t have dropped to $40 a barrel last year.

    It’s being driven by big speculators, like hedge funds and SWF’s.
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/29/56403/funds-piling-back-into-the-commodities-trade/?source=rss

    Hard to predict where the top is but expect lower than last year, as many hedge funds have gone under and the SWF’s are severely shrunken after brilliant investments in banks last spring. Expect the same result in a few months.
    Remember this chart?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_oil_price_in_dollars_from_1999_to_2008_November_21.svg

  7. franklin411 says:

    @cvienne
    Rates plunged in March when the Fed announced it would buy bonds. They spiked above 5% a week or two later. Then they plunged again in mid-April, then they rose to a middling level in May. Now they’re spiking. How do you know they won’t plunge again tomorrow? What makes you think your “bond vigilantes” are reliable allies in the bear’s attempt to destroy America?

    @Mannwich
    I wouldn’t be so quick to declare “game over” if rates go to 6%. I think the pain would be so bad that it would hit white people, and then you’d see bipartisan support for a massive Federal mortgage refinancing program. The private student loan companies, the Chrysler bondholders, and the GM bondholders all thought they could buffalo the administration.

    They all paid in blood.

  8. cvienne says:

    @call me ahab (11:10)

    It’s not as simple as VAT…I lived in Europe with VAT and earned wages there as well so I’m familiar with the system…

    While your INCOME is not taxed, your EMPLOYER pays a tax off of what they pay you in the form of a VAT…

    In the end it means less jobs because it’s too costly to hire a large staff of workers…Furthermore, when you go to this type of system it’s VERY HARD to fire workers…Companies are very cautious about hiring, and growth is very stagnant…

    Europe only survived the past decade on the fact that it was able to EXPORT goods to America who were taking out 2nd mortgages to buy them…

  9. ben22 says:

    This is exactly the type of sh*t I’m talking about:

    F411@ 11:15

    bear’s attempt to destroy America?

    Yeah, it was the bears that did this. Not Greenspan and his bubbles or almost 30 years of misguided Reganomics.

  10. cvienne says:

    @Franklin411

    The “point of view” of the bond vigilantes is that they’re SAVING America by keeping a watch on the purse strings…

    And to “kind of” answer your question about what rates might or might not do today or tomorrow…

    The POWER of the bond vigilantes is much stronger than the FED…The FED will lose…PERIOD!

    This past week was just a “shot across the bow”…The BV’s took down Clinton’s health care package with ease…They can do anything they want because at some point SOMEBODY has to buy all the paper that Obama wants to issue…

    $10 trillion in 10 years (& climbing), is too much…

  11. I-Man says:

    Ahh benny boy…

    It’s so hard to ignore him… but you just gotta do it. We all gotta do it. Little tidbits snuck in like: “bear’s attempt to destroy America” or “Shorts being unAmerican” are only designed to provoke and get a stir going.

    A desperate stab at getting attention, perhaps? Or maybe, just the sophomoric tendencies at work again?

    Who knows? Who cares?

    Short Franklin, Long TBP. Nuff said.

  12. cvienne says:

    @Franklin411

    The Chrysler & GM bondholders “paid in blood” because they’d already lent the money…

    After this, they’re not going to be lending anymore money to Obama who is asking to borrow it as we speak…

    Who has whom over a barrel?

  13. VennData says:

    Investment bankers: CIA wants you

    http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/05/28/pm_cia_recruits/

    ROFLMAO! Investment bankers in the CIA. We’re doomed.

    This is comical. Unless the CIA needs to sell something to somebody – that they don’t need when they’d be better off indexing – these Inspector Clouseau-esque bankers would make the Keystone Cops look like the Founding Fathers. Queue the Pink Panther theme…

    I would love to see the vetting process after the interviews when the CIA HR folks realize these dopes’ only skill is going to lunch.

    CIA HR: “Hey, let’s send them out to take Kim Il Jong , Ahmedijad et al to lunch.”

    …a few months later…

    Ibanker turned CIA spook: “Well… uh… sorry we lost the global war on terror due to the poor incentives you gave us, but we’re here to discuss another bailout. Lunch anyone?”

  14. cvienne says:

    @Franklin411

    Bottom line:

    You can PRINT all the money you want (or toss it out of helicopters)…You can’t FORCE anybody to buy anything with it…

  15. Mannwich says:

    @f411 (I don’t even know why I bother anymore): How many mortgage people have you talked to in the industry? Well, I’ve talked to a few and they tell me that many of their re-fi’s aren’t getting done. Some of these HAVE to get done to keep people in their homes. Actually, a lot of them, especially in places like your home state. Re-fi’s in the high 5′s/’6 won’t get done and these people will be foreclosed upon and people like me simply won’t re-fi and will hang tight for the time being. Mortgage re-fi market DOA as a result. More lost jobs too.

  16. ben22 says:

    I-man,

    you are right. that’s my last time. my blood pressure just went up.

    Like you said, who knows what he’s trying to do and who cares.

  17. leftback says:

    Mike in Nola: Same BS commodity rally as last year, same culprits (GS, hedgies, Pension Fools), reduced leverage.

    “Saudis want $70″ “Nigerian incident” “Pipeline explosion”. All BS stories that don’t affect supply/demand curve.

    Storage is full. The world is awash in oil, this is all speculation. I wonder if Krugman gets it this time around? Princeton’s Nobel Laureate posted a bunch of nice equations last year apparently unaware that GS was jacking the market up by toasting hedgers and shorts. (It’s Trading, Paul !!) Watch crude fall like a stone when the $ rallies.

  18. Mannwich says:

    @VennData: North Korea’s Dear Leader could just pay them off to switch sides. Would almost be too easy for them.

  19. Mannwich says:

    No green shoots on this map. More like red shoots….a couple of pink and fuscia ones as well.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html

  20. call me ahab says:

    cvienne Says:

    You can PRINT all the money you want (or toss it out of helicopters)…You can’t FORCE anybody to buy anything with it…

    that is the truth of the matter- however it can allow banks to trade all they want with free money

    also- point noted on VAT- never said I was a fan- just said that the way to sell it would be to link it to health care

  21. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/new-posts/comment-page-2/#comment-177366

    My feelings exactly re: healthcare. There is pressure building out there. And this recession just may push it over the top, we’ll see. The millions of people who’ve lost their job and health care benefits/insurance are screwed and it will start showing up as the social unrest increases.

    The whole system has been rigged so that the individual is at such a disadvantage if not in a company plan or govt employee. The health care insurance industry has us by the ‘nads and will fight tooth and nail to keep the status quo. Doctors and hospitals don’t even know how to deal with somebody without insurance.

    And I’m a lucky one. Military retiree with great coverage as a result. But I feel so badly for those out there who are hanging in the wind right now with the threat of a health problem completing ruining their lives. If you’re unlucky, you’re screwed. I’m wary of a socialized health care system, no doubt. But we really should find a way to craft a system that doesn’t leave the unlucky out in the cold. Maddening stuff.

  22. zell says:

    Ben 22 is on target re: F411. Day/day; month/mo. moves are as irrelevant as the pom pom crowd.
    Think Debt– Deleveraging– Demographics–Decimation of assets–Drag as mood sours again.

  23. cvienne says:

    @LB (11:32)

    Chill out lefty :-)

    Just let it go for a tiny bit longer…

    - Get your $70 print
    - Let it help the energy sector break the S&P up a little higher
    - Be patient and let that happen so the bv’s can come in and restore order

    SHORTS will be cheap at that point and we’ll all ride the “green chutes” down together…

    Do you want a dollar today? or 2 tomorrow?

  24. Transor Z says:

    Chicago PMI = horror show. Re-accelerating manufacturing decline.

  25. Mannwich says:

    @Transor: Better than expected?

    At least the banks are doing well. Really happy for them.

  26. http://www.tracetracker.com/?tag=GTN

    yet, the “War on Drugs” is an ever-losing battle?
    ~~

    as an aside, “All the News that’s Fit to Print.” was a Typesetter’s Joke, never a Guarantee of Journalistic integrity..

  27. DL says:

    call me ahab @ 11:10

    “DL wants to open up his own surfboard company- but- keeps the secure job pushing paper”

    You’re right… I’m much closer to the second category than the first.
    But to use your example, WHO exactly is going to pay for the health insurance for workers of the surfboard company? Obama is likely to say that, as the owner of the company, I’ll have to either pay for the workers’ health insurance, or else pay a higher tax. Your argument sounds much like what I heard from Hillary during the presidential campaign. So, you’ve got to explain to me, as the owner of the company, who will pay for the insurance? There’s not going to be any free lunches here (except perhaps for some people at the bottom of the income scale).

    As for the consumption tax, if there were no enforcement problems, I would say do away with the income tax altogether, and just have a consumption tax. But with a high VAT, tax avoidance will be rampant. And then there’s going to be all the exclusions. Exclude medicines, exclude food, exclude diapers, exclude this, exclude that, which means that the tax has to be that much higher for everything else, which means that much more cheating.

  28. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    You NEED things like “drugs”, & sports, & American Idol in society to keep the sheeple “comfortably numb”…

    Otherwise, they might all be on blogs like this and holding their politicians “accountable” for things…

  29. leftback says:

    “Do you want a dollar today? or 2 tomorrow?”

    I’ll take both, please, cvienne. Thanks. You might enjoy this from MacroMan this morning:

    “And while “everybody else is doing it, so why don’t we” can on occasion be a persuasive argument, it’s also paved the road to some of the most spectacular crashes of the past couple of decades. Put another way, just because some other doughnut decided that it’d be fun to buy GM stock (which traded in positive territory for most of the day) the day that they announced their imminent bankruptcy timetable doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea for you or Macro Man to do it.”

    My thoughts exactly.

  30. AmenRa says:

    Alright already. Who is forcing down the yield on the 10yr note by 134 bps?

  31. Andy T says:

    The first link up there from Barron’s was actually a decent article on technicals and pennant formations…

    Professionals don’t trade pennants until it breaks one way or another…..

    Here’s the other thing about this particular pattern on the SP500…if this is a triangle, and we break out higher, the thrust should be limited to 75-125% of the widest part of the triangle, so 950s tops. If, however, we thrust lower out of this triangle, then we probably put in a spring peak and it would be best to exit the markets….

    The existence of a triangle type pattern at the end of a big move is a sign of exhaustion, sort of like finishing a marathon…a struggle to the end….you either a) get the last rush that takes you to the finish line [where you collapse], or b) lose energy and collapse before the finish line [call the ambulance].

  32. Mike in Nola says:

    VennData: Maybe the CIA intends to send investment bankers as moles into China and have them blow up the Chinese economy.

  33. call me ahab says:

    mannwich, transor, onlooker, DL-

    I am all for health care- universal is fine- but- need to go to my own doctor- do not want a clinic-

    I talked to my doctor who i have been seeing for 20 years- and he is as frustrated as everyone else regarding the insurance companies-

    and just instinctively- I have a innate suspicion of insurance companies anyway- as soon as shit gets rough companies pull out of whole States like State Farm did in Florida with homeowner’s ins-

    and pre-existing conditions- how do you get around that conundrum-

    with ins companies it’s basically- give us money until you start costing us money- then- adios amigo

  34. cvienne says:

    @DL

    Re: who is going to pay?

    I already answered that question in an earlier thread…

    The owner of the company pays…I know…I lived in Italy for 12 years…My business had 17 staff on the payroll…I PAID THEIR HEALTHCARE PREMIUMS…

    what people STILL don’t realize is that if we ever move to a system like this, the RESULT is going to be a lot of “undocumented workers”, and money “nero” coming into the cash register…

    Commerce will literally revert back to CASH BASED…Businesses will try to incentivize customers by offering “discounts” if they pay in cash…The customers will accept because they avoid paying the 20% or whatever VAT…

    In the end…It means you have LESS revenues coming into the US Treasury…You’d have to establish a whole force of “tax police” to roam around knocking on doors of small businesses and looking at their books…

    Trust me on this…

  35. the fly in the oinment of the ‘deflationista’ argument is that it’s based ‘on the ‘dollar”..

    primarily, that it holds/increases in value..

    that’s a high-risk proposition. caeteris paribus, aka “Freeze Frame”, can leave you cold.

    “snapshot image froze without a sound.”
    http://www.metrolyrics.com/freeze-frame-lyrics-j-geils-band.html

  36. cvienne says:

    In Italy they call the “tax police” the…Guardia di Finanza

    Look it up…

    I had MANY visits from them during my years there…It’s a big “cat & mouse” game…

    It’s why Italy is “charming”, but backwards…

  37. Onlooker from Troy says:

    ahab

    No doubt the health care problem is a tough nut to crack. You want some market type forces at play to keep things in check, but you don’t want insurance companies doing what they do: collect premiums and then play gotcha and run interference to try to minimize pay outs. And add huge overhead to the whole thing. How much health care money is sucked down the administrative hole?

    And the health care providers are truly fed up and frustrated too.

    If we don’t craft a good compromise soon I think the balance of political will from the masses is going to push us towards single payer by the time we get through this grinding economic period. I think you can tinker with a universal system to add some flexibility for those who want to pay up for more without leaving others out in the cold. I’m hesitant to call it a right, but it sure feels rather crappy to just say those who lose the genetic lottery are just screwed.

  38. call me ahab says:

    DL Says:

    “There’s not going to be any free lunches here (except perhaps for some people at the bottom of the income scale).”

    it already is free at the bottom of the scale- meidcaid

    with the universal health care I see a tax to pay for it either payroll or national sales tax- I think the impetus will be getting stronger to enact the more unemployed people and distressed families there are- as well said my mannwich and onlooker-

    at this point of time in America- I much fell like taking my guitar and working the streets in DC for tips for playing some poorly played songs-

    tax free

    reminds of a story of when I was in Santa Monica- full of homeless people everywhere- not necessarily a bad thing- but just the way it is because of their open arm policies-

    anyway- in the morning I would be in standing line at an eclectic little coffee shop I found- and in line with me were the same dudes who were bumming for change the day before- getting latte’s and what not-

    quite the life

  39. Jdamon33 says:

    CRA didn’t cause the meltdown, but to say it didn’t have any substantive impact is not accurate and I’m not buying it.

  40. cvienne,

    see: http://www.marketing-interactive.com/news/12193

    “Hong Kong – Visa has appointed Sunny Cheung (pictured) as country manager for Hong Kong and Macau and will oversee the development of the Visa brand across both territories. He replaces Jim Dixon who has relocated to head up Korea.
    Cheung said he looks forward to diversifying Visa’s products and services further as well as demonstrating the value of Visa more in the electronics payment industry.
    He explained that Visa’s vision is to encourage people to use electronic payments rather than cash and checks and sees opportunity in the ongoing migration from paper-based payments to card-based and other electronic payments.

    Cheung said Visa recently launched the “More people go with Visa” campaign which for the first time gives Visa a single global marketing message that will be executed locally for maximum relevance and impact in local markets.

    He said the campaign is consistent with Visa’s core growth strategy – migrating consumer and business spending from cash and checks to a better form of electronic payment, Visa.

    Cheung said he will also focus on high-opportunity segments where Visa products and services are currently under-penetrated…”
    ~~
    and: “Peter Ayliffe said that, by 2012, using credit and debit cards should be cheaper and more convenient than cash.
    Some retailers could soon start surcharging customers if they choose to buy products with cash, because of the greater cost of processing these payments, he warned.
    Visa Europe briefed the British Retail Consortium last month on new “contactless” cards that can be waved in front of a scanner to make small payments.
    However, the consortium dismissed this vision and claimed that card processing fees, which regulators are investigating, are still too high.
    One member of the consurtium said that the estimated “interchange” fee charged to retailers amounts to some 4p for each transaction.

    Nick Mourant, treasurer at Tesco, said: “There is a duopoly between Mastercard and Visa in the UK. Their setting of fees is anti-competitive.” …
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/cashless-society-by-2012-says-visa-chief-439676.html

    to Mourant’s point, VISA, half of the mentioned duopoly, would have been crushed, long ago, if they weren’t doing somebody’s bidding–and, yes, save me the talk of AmEx settlements..

    obviously, these dudes (wet)work for VISA– spin keyword: Cashless Society through your fave web crawler..
    LSS: Cash has been under attack for, literally, decades..

  41. leftback says:

    “The existence of a triangle type pattern at the end of a big move is a sign of exhaustion”

    Quite. As if further evidence were needed. We are at a stage of equal bear and bull exhaustion now. TWINE™ (“The World Is Not Ending”) is not going to be enough to drive the market higher from here.

    @MEH: Ray Dalia has explained this pretty well, in his article about the “D-process”. Debt is denominated in $. Deleveraging must therefore lift the $. We will be on the D-Train™ this summer.

  42. call me ahab says:

    hoffer Says:

    “the fly in the oinment of the ‘deflationista’ argument is that it’s based ‘on the ‘dollar”..

    primarily, that it holds/increases in value..”

    good point- what do you think Mark- a slow slog to 1.5 per Euro- a 1.6??? 1.7??? No $ rally forthcoming?

    I am starting to wonder if the air is being let out slowly

  43. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    The article was fine MEH but you’re missing my point…

    I’m speaking of “behavior changes” in the context of moving to a UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE SYSTEM…

    I’m just referring what I actually experienced for 12 years…

    -Who pays for healthcare?…Employer
    -Result: Small businesses try to hire UNDOCUMENTED workers (and pay them cash under the table)
    - VAT tax is imposed on consumption (say 20%, which has to be reported as income by business)
    -Result: You NEVER want your business to show profits…Too onerous…You incentive customers to buy things and pay CASH for them…Offer them a 25% discount…20% is what they save from the VAT, and 5% is what you knock off your margin to entice the sale…
    -You SIMPLY CANNOT USE CREDIT OR DEBIT CARDS because it is an electronic transaction (subjecting you to taxes which would KILL your margins or possibly make you close down)…

    Believe me, if Healthcare is passed, thhe ABOVE described black market will ensue…

  44. Short Crone says:

    @Onlooker: Reality of the health insurance market is hitting a lot of people in the face, my family included. My husband recently lost his job. We have to take the COBRA for him because of a single instance of accelerated heart rate last fall. He doesn’t take meds, he doesn’t have any heart issues, but no carrier will take him. You cannot qualify for personal health insurance if you take blood pressure meds, cholestrol meds, or any anti-anxiety meds. Don’t even consider it if you have diabetes. So, we eliminate, what, 75% of the population over age 50?

  45. leftback says:

    ahab: The $ may be more trash than cash, but the same can be said for any of the currencies: $, £, ¥, €.
    This is the proverbial Race to the Bottom, and someone else’s currency is going to take a beating soon.

  46. karen says:

    today, the $tran has broken out and up from the May downtrend… looks like anyone betting on that H&S from mid april to mid may is short and wrong. $wlsh still looking good on decent volume today as well.

    fwiw, the p&f for the spx is 935, for the $wlsh it’s 10550.. and for the $tran, 3680.

  47. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    note: it won’t be wholescale and across the board, but you watch…IT WILL HAPPEN…

    People in this country have “blinders on”…

    and I’ll make ANOTHER point…These BK & foreclosure filings mean bad credit ratings on the way for a lot of Americans…

    They won’t be able to get anything other than a SECURED card anyway (with a very limited balance)…The CARD FEES will be too high because it is part of Obama’s “genius” plan regarding credit cards (where carrying fees go up)…

    Many will turn back to cash…

  48. cvienne says:

    @karen

    Thanks for posting that ($TRAN)…

    It had been one of the things I was watching (but I hadn’t looked at it today)…

    I think it’s an important indicator of the next direction after AndyT’s triangle…

  49. karen says:

    a simple $tran chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24tran
    it’ll be interesting to see how it ends the week and month! i’ll post a weekly and monthly next.

  50. cvienne says:

    @karen

    What’s interesting too is that the DMI indicator had come into complete tangent and is now separating apart off this past week’s consolidation (on the $TRAN)

  51. call me ahab says:

    lftbk-

    good point- £ especially

  52. leftback says:

    :-) Just showing off my legendary Keyboard Skilz™. The € was the hardest to find…

  53. Moss says:

    We should simply tell the so called foreign bond vigilantes that we will remove all our defense bases and leave them on their own since we can’t afford to protect them anymore. Pull the pay to play card on them.

    Tell the various Kingdoms, Japanese, Germans, all of them. The burden the US bares as the Global police force needs to be put in economic terms. Lets monetize that!

  54. cvienne says:

    @LB

    If there ends up being the famous RACE TO THE BOTTOM (which most agree on), once the € goes under $1.16, they’ll start thinking of dismantling it altogether…

    The Germans will want to go back to the mark
    French francs
    Italian Lira
    Spanish peso

    etc…

    So then your € will be REALLY hard to find (especially on BR’s new Mac)

  55. cvienne says:

    @Moss

    It may come to that someday…

    But then we’d probably have to start drilling for oil here again or start riding our bikes…

    It’s all a Mexican standoff isn’t it?

  56. I-Man says:

    @ Left:

    Would you mind linking that Dalia article, young brotha?

  57. ahab,

    re: ‘dollar’–short term? http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax

    the best thing one can say about that ugly chart is that it looks overextended to the d-side..

    if it were me, I’d be preparing for serious financial market ‘liquidations’ occuring August-timeframe..

    LSS: people are, still, not awake to the “Derivatives” issue(s), in general.

    all this “we’ve dodged the bullet” chest-thumping, and “greens shoot” parrotting, is delusional in the extreme.

    if one has their ‘ability’ to function wrapped up in electronic bleeps and flashes, they’re the type of Risk-taker, wittingly, or not, that would make Evel Knievel Run the other way..
    ~~
    cvienne,

    as I was saying, alluding to, Cards are more the Financial Transaction vehicles these daze..

    websearch: Real ID, and EEVS
    see: http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2007/06/harper-real-id-and-federal-no-work-list

  58. I-Man says:

    @ Cvienne and MEH:

    When can I sign up to have the chip implanted in my wrist?

    Get my gist?

  59. hopeImwrong says:

    Re: hyper-inflation.

    Probably hyper-inflation is way off, but if the dollar trend doesn’t reverse, high inflation is coming soon.

  60. Mike in Nola says:

    Lefty: Is the superscripted TM actually an ascii code? I tried html and it didn’t work.

    BTW, I think you know finance too. Must be your international outlook. :)

  61. AmenRa says:

    10 yr down to 3.50% and the Dow and S&P are relatively flat. Explain.

  62. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    Grrrrrr…..

    I get your gist MEH…I get your gist…(yours too I-man)

    But both of you are still making your conclusions based on the way the system exists today…

    So if the present structure never changes…that is:

    - No healthcare reform
    - No VAT

    I’m in agreement with you…

    I think, however, the system will change…

    And I’m telling you that the more the government succeeds to nationalize and/or socialize everything, the more of an UNDERGROUND of “under the table” commerce will begin to formulate and proliferate…

    Who was it that posted a few threads ago here about going to Washington DC and playing his guitar on the streets?

    Trust me…He’s not going to be asking for debit cards or imbedded chips to get bar scanned into his guitar box…

    If I’m Starbucks…I keep the cash register OPEN…and when someone I know comes in to buy a latte, I make it for him and charge him 50 cents less for it (but I don’t punch the transaction into the cash register)…

    When the government wants a cut of ALL TRANSACTIONS, margins are tough to come by…So the only way to survive is to AVOID EVIDENCE OF THE TRANSACTION…If you want to stay in business…

  63. leftback says:

    I-Man: Ray Dalio, sorry. Thoughtful article. Here it be, brotha:
    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/07/barrons_ray_dal.html

    “10 yr down to 3.50% and the Dow and S&P are relatively flat. Explain.”
    It’s a summer Friday. The A traders are in the Hamptons – the B team desk is eating takeout and watching p*rn.

    Mike: Trade secrets. Now if you subscribed to Schadenfreude’s Investor Newsletter…

  64. Mike in Nola says:

    AmenRa: Who knows? It’s dangerous for mortals to meddle in the affairs of the gods for they are quick to anger.

    A friend who bought GM bonds 6 months ago on a flier when they had some enourmous yield because they were so shakey is now whining about Obama screwing him. It’s what happens when you gamble.

  65. ben22 says:

    Karen,

    I also noticed that in $TRAN.

    @ MEH,

    Just remember, being short the $ right now, is running with the crowd.

    Though, Clearly, I’m talking my book here, given my new position in UUP @ $24 yesterday

  66. leftback says:

    “It’s what happens when you gamble.”

    It’s what happens when dipsticks buy illiquid instruments they cannot unload. I know tons of people who piled into bank bonds in December, I wonder how that’s going to turn out.

    “If I’m Starbucks…I keep the cash register OPEN…and when someone I know comes in to buy a latte, I make it for him and charge him 50 cents less for it (but I don’t punch the transaction into the cash register)…”

    This describes a significant fraction of the bartender business, unless the owner is all over it all the time.

  67. Mike in Nola says:

    Lefty: ĤŰĤ? ™

  68. Cvienne,

    “And I’m telling you that the more the government succeeds to nationalize and/or socialize everything, the more of an UNDERGROUND of “under the table” commerce will begin to formulate and proliferate…”

    this isn’t 1940′s-era Vichy France, or Lira-devaluing pre-e-comm Italy..

    add in, http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Civilian+National+Security+Force of all the newly ‘available’ unemployed..

    you’ll have 168. Track n’ Trace that would be the envy of the Stasi’s wettest dreams..

    the type of ‘underground’ you’re referring to would be seen on Breed’s Hill, not Nob Hill.

  69. hopeImwrong says:

    Has anyone else noticed that pessimists (bearish propensity) want to catch the cusp of a move more than optimists (bullish propensity)? Optimists seem to want to catch the momentum of the move, not the cusp. Or is it something else that differentiates these two behaviors?

  70. leftback says:

    LOL. ™ is option-2 on my Mac. The € is shift-option-2, for those who are bored..

  71. ben22,

    I’m not short the U$D, I’m long Silver.

    and, I’d love to see the DX=~90, if not ~120, just saying it’s, certainly, not a given..and, that, there are, significant, Risks, well, and truly, about.

  72. karen says:

    What would be the catalyst to push the spx over 925 today? Looks like that’s a real possibitly on the 60 minute chart…

  73. ben22 says:

    Mark,

    No doubt. I’m curious, did you just buy silver, or are you doing that via a mining outfit, or something else?

  74. Mike in Nola says:

    Lefty: you gave away nothing by telling me that :) Use a pc laptop and have never tried ot memorize keyboard combos; if it ain’t marked on the keys, I’m not typing it. Found a page of ascii symbol codes and save it to my desktop as a cheat sheet to copy and pase. £©£

  75. AmenRa says:

    @Mike

    Hahaha. I think it’s because of the short week. As leftback said “the A traders are in the Hamptons”.

    So next week it begins. I’m just wondering how much spin is going to happen over the weekend.

  76. Mike in Nola says:

    Which does not answer the quesiton of why WordPress accepts html tags for bold, italics, etc., but not the super and subscripts.

  77. hopeImwrong says:

    I have slv for silver holdings.

  78. ben22 says:

    Karen,

    You are a chart diva but I don’t think so. We haven’t crossed over the intra-day high of earlier this week. IMO we are going to need some big buying push, perhaps around 3:30 for that to occur. Does there need to be a catalyst anymore for anything though?

    If it does happen,

    That would be the double, or triple zig zag scenario on the way to new highs but I’m not sure about that just yet.

  79. ben22,

    two ways, no third way.

    Physical y CONEX

    if you’re willing to stand for delivery, you can start making Silver(Metals) Pay you to hold them, as well..

    No Paper Silver, as in Miners, ETFs, et al., here.

    btw, if you want a new way to keep track of how you’re doing ‘in the Mkt.s’ use the Silver Oz. as basis, rather than the Paperback–might get a clearer picture/better focus.

  80. karen says:

    ben, if we get over 912.50, it can move of its momentum.. and look at transports..

    dto is getting jumpy.. it just made a multi point move in the right direction.

    next, did you read the bespoke link? did you see jcg today? (meant to buy that earlier… too many stocks and two few eyes… ha ha ha)

  81. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    OK then my friend…But there will be two different economies…”Nob Hill” & “Hillbillies”

    @karen
    Implied volatility is pricing in roughly 25-27 point peak to trough moves in the S&P…

    the last low was 888, so I’d say 915 would be “tops” for today…

    So I suppose to answer your question, any catalyst to go above 925 would be any euphoria that might gather…I don’t see it happening…It’s 76 degrees and low humidity on Long Island…Time to hit the beach…

    On Monday, you’ll have a minor reverse H&S pattern formed…

    So you go to 915 today…Retrace and test 906 on Monday…Then tack on 27 points after the 906 test…

  82. Mannwich says:

    Here’s a shocker. Looks like S&P is being influenced by the Street again, this time on their CMBS potential ratings downgrades….

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/more-on-s-and-possible-cmbs-downgrades.html

  83. Andy T says:

    karen Says:
    May 29th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
    What would be the catalyst to push the spx over 925 today? Looks like that’s a real possibitly on the 60 minute chart…

    The catalyst is always something that is unknown until after the fact….a move to 925 would start breaking out of the pennant and would create that last rush to the 950s/960s. The only question is which path would cause the most damage to most people:

    a) a rush to 950/960 followed by a collapse?
    b) an anticipation of a rush out of this pennant/triangle that never materializes and we end up just collapsing.

    I honestly don’t know the answer….thus I sit and wait patiently for the market to tell me….

  84. cvienne,

    the “War on Bubba” has been on for years..

    and this: http://animalid.aphis.usda.gov/nais/index.shtml

    will put ‘hillbillies’ on the Grid, or OOB..

  85. ben22 says:

    @Karen,

    No I only read your first link so far. I’ll get to the second one in a minute. I had to place a few trades in between. Just sold some DBA for a nice gain. The $TRAN action is really worth paying attention to. Good eye, you must put carrots in your salads.

    @Mark,

    I have watched a chart of the DOW priced in Gold (real money) for a while now. It spells credit deflation if I ever saw it. It’s down huge since the 2000 peak. If we still used real money more people would understand exactly what is going on here.

  86. hopeImwrong says:

    MEH @1:52 – just when my stress reduction program was starting to work, you have to post that link!

  87. hopeImwrong says:

    My cows (when I get them) will be off the grid. My chickens too.

  88. ben22,

    why do you think we use Paperbacks?

    Peep have been F*****g Crushed, in Real Terms, since ~2000, at the minimum..

    good thing they collected those ‘Statehood Quarters’..that’ll tide’m over..

    I’ll say again, the whole World begins in Commodities, peep that ignore that Reality, are, to borrow a phrase, Walking around Blind, without a Cane.

  89. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    I hear ya bro…but when FULL SCALE socialist government hits (and it begins to impact people’s lives in a “behavioral” way)…

    The government is going to see the problem…It will be like Roy Scheider’s character in Jaws…”We’re going to need a bigger boat”…

  90. cvienne says:

    @Andy T (1:52)

    I nominate the “a” scenario…

    Commodity & Energy bulls are in full command right now…

    The BV’s volley was just a “shot across the bow”…for now…

    It’s going to take the commodities & energy to push this market up before the BV’s come back to torpedo the whole idea…

  91. hopeImwrong says:

    MEH – Call the stroke team. Code Blue.

    For those bearish on gold – you need to worry about
    1) GDX high volume breakout above $40 and successful re-test (so far).
    2) GDX and GLD above rising 200 day MA. Silver almost there too.
    3) Potential 4th retest of the $1000 area by Gold. Seems a breakout is more likely on the 4th try.
    4) Potential (highly anticipated, unfortuantely) longer term reverse head and shoulders on gold.
    5) Dollar down trend is intact. Below 50 day and 200 day MA, with 200 day having potential to roll over in a week or two.

  92. leftback says:

    True… But, this would be a great time to take gold down and cause maximal GOLD BUG pain, would it not?

  93. cvienne says:

    @hopeImwrong

    Obama is heading off to Egypt to give a speech to the Muslim world (on June 4th) telling then what great citizens of the world they’ve been and how we all owe a great debt of service to them all…

    Then he has a “private dinner” with the Saudi King, followed by, probably, a “tounge lashing” of Netanyahu telling him to “get with the program” (and cede back land to the Palestinians)…

    He’ll top it all off with a D-Day visit with Sarkozy on the Normandy beach (which someone forgot to invite Queen Elizabeth to – or – Obama instructed her that she wasn’t invited unless she could recite BY HEART all his famous speeches on the iPod he gave her)…Even though QE was the only one of the three that had a “physical presence” during that invasion…

    So I suppose gold will trade in accordance with idiot crap like that…I don’t care what technicals say, I’d fade it after that…

  94. hopeImwrong says:

    @LB –

    Yes, max pain could be down for gold, at least for me. But, there seems to be less excitement about this run up to $1000. So, I’m not sure. I’d gage sentiment as more bullish than I would like, but not close to scary. For gold, this move has been sedate.

    I’ve seen J6P interest in gold, which worries me.

    Another concern for the bears should be this week’s move up around options expirations.