Took forever to get home from Indianapolis yesterday — 90 minute flight, with weather and congestion delays. took far too many hours. I am still recovering, but it was a great conference and the trip was well worth it. I love speaking to sophisticated farmers and ranchers who run a cooperative power association — surprisingly savvy folks, smarter than the geniuses who caused the meltdown.

Anyhow, I have a a few posts today after the open today, but here’s what I am looking at this morning:

Why the Bulls Just Won’t Die (Barron’s)

Profit Rebound Still Has Long Climb Back (WSJ)

Profits Squeezed at the Margin (Barron’s)

Banks Balk at U.S. Push to Rein In Derivatives (WSJ)More Homeowners Facing Foreclosure (NYT)

Bernanke Bid to Lift Housing Scuttled by Rising Rates, Defaults (Bloomberg)

Borrowers with good credit fuel foreclosures in 1Q (AP)

Did the CRA cause the mortgage market meltdown? (Minnesota Fed)

The Big Banks’ Best Friend in Washington (Washington Post)

Credit Relief May Not Last Long (NYT)

Roubini Finds Economy Even He Can Be Bullish On (Bloomberg)

Banks’ Appraisal Conflicts Could Continue Under New HVCC Rules Cuomo’s office: “GSE’s knew they were buying loans with appraisal fraud…” : “Outside industry experts on Bank of America’s advisory council, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they had hoped Countrywide’s shady past would be cleaned up within a year of the new ownership. But nearly a year later, we’ve learned that the Charlotte-based BofA has simply assumed the same practices that branded Countrywide a financial predator.”

Category: Financial Press, Weblogs

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

225 Responses to “New Posts . . .”

  1. hopeImwrong says:

    @ cvienne 2:27

    I’m not saying there isn’t a bearish case to be made. Just laying out the risks for the bears. My humble opinion is, risk is higher for shorts than longs at this juncture. But, I’m not married to that. And I’m not adding to positions. Any new positions should be protected with stops.

  2. cvienne says:

    @hopeImwrong

    Disclosure: If you didn’t know it b4…I’ve OWNED gold bullion since 2004 @$375…I don’t TRADE it…

    I still think it goes much higher in the long run (and I’m actually looking to add more to SILVER these days)…

    But I don’t need to ADD any gold unless I see it at $820 – $750 (which I’d love to see)…

  3. cvienne says:

    @hopeI’mwrong

    My last gold purchase was October 2006

  4. Moss says:

    @cvienne

    I am all for a Mexican standoff.
    We can not allow the rest of the world to take for granted the incredible cost we endure year after year to keep the world safe for commerce. The recent past has seen the erosion of respect for the US and what we bring to the table. It is time for us to leverage our superior defense, intelligence and statesmanship capabilities. It has been acting as a detriment due to its imprudent use. Our dependence on Oil is certainly a weak link but we should continue to depend more and more on Canada and our own reserves.

    I would love to see the the when we can tell the Kingdoms to take their heavy crude and stick it.

  5. cvienne says:

    @Moss

    Actually the KINGDOMS have the light sweet crude (as does Nigeria)…

    Canada has the heavy stuff…

    Our own WTI is light…

    But those are just ‘technicalities’…In principle I agree with parts of what you’re saying…In the end, it’s a fascinating ballet of soverign interests…

  6. karen says:

    Obvious update of the spx outlook, 3 minutes to go but 60 minute candle bearish… last 30 were bearish as is this 30 minutes… lets see how the hour ends.. if we can bet back to 908, my bias would still be up..

  7. bill_from_chicago says:

    Just read today’s discussion – must say one of the best and most insightful in a while.

    Cvienne – great view points re March 12 and March 19 – but doesn’t decide then this rally is over?

    Any guess for Monday’s S&P – it has been hammered the last 2 Mondays (even though last Monday was technically a Tuesday)

  8. cvienne says:

    @karen

    To me it looks like its formed a nice REVERSE H&S (with support at 906)…

    Probably sets up for an upward bias going into next week…

    (Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see a “knee jerk” down under the 906 in the first 30 minutes of trading on Monday just to play head games with some)…A “seek & destroy” mission…

    otherwise…It’s 76 in the Hamptons right now…This will most likely end quiet…

  9. cvienne says:

    btw

    My “seek & destroy” level (on Monday) would be around 897…So it have to zip down and then be back above 906 by 10:00 am…

  10. bill_from_chicago says:

    sorry June 12 and June 19

  11. .. probably, a “tounge lashing” of Netanyahu telling him to “get with the program” (and cede back land to the Palestinians)… ??

    interesting perspective..

  12. karen says:

    On deck for Monday: personal spending, personal income, ISM index, and construction spending…

    cvienne, i’ll walk with you on that spx scenario…

  13. cvienne says:

    @MEH

    I just get the feeling that Obama is throwing Israel under the bus…

    That’s just how I see it…

  14. hopeImwrong says:

    OK. So the oil market seems irrationally up in anticipation of a rapid global recovery, or high inflation [that's the rational arguements] OR speculators are driving it up for profit [possible].

    What about non-precisous metals (xme) run? Is this speculators also?

  15. Onlooker from Troy says:

    GM is finally finding it’s rightful value; just about 75 cents more to go. A most bizarre tale on that one. Still can’t figure out why it stayed elevated for so long. Even without BK it should have been a penny stock it would seem.

    JCG – major short squeeze? 25% up, good grief. Wonder where it will settle to.

  16. cvienne says:

    @karen

    Re: SPX

    It would basically explain today’s action…in short…

    - Reverse H&S formed with around a 906 base on the S&P (since Tuesday)
    - But maybe the market looks to do some GAP “filling in” in the 897 to 899 range (3 “gaps” there in the last 7 days)…
    - So you get a 899 GAP down open on Monday…It spends a half hour filling it in…then it charges up to 906 right at 10 o’clock (which would pretty much keep the reverse H&S in tact on more than a 30 min chart)…
    - You still have implied volatility which could move the S&P 27 points all week
    - So you have a new BASE of 897, with topside of 925
    - It bumps around there all next week
    - The 88 puts and 93 calls that one of the big boys wrote are still in tact (and the PREMIUM is decaying fast for the buyers)…
    - Rinse & Repeat the following week…
    - Technical breakout on OPEX week

    over & done

  17. cvienne says:

    @karen

    oh…and that ‘gap down to 897…if you need a bulls**t story to pin it to…let’s just say the GM bankruptcy for sh**s & giggles…

  18. Onlooker from Troy says:

    The mania in NG seems to have cooled off today. Anybody think it resumes a meaningful rise from here? Just doesn’t seem like there’s a fundamental case for it doing anything but staying down around 4 bucks without a REAL recovery in sight. No weak dollar affect like oil.

  19. karen says:

    Onlooker, I’m showing a 30% short postion in jcg… darn I missed it… thot they’d post better than expected.. i just dumped a bunch of money their way yesterday : )

  20. bill_from_chicago says:

    @Cvienne

    I just get the feeling Obama is throwing American under the bus…

  21. bill_from_chicago says:

    America – can’t type today

  22. I-Man says:

    That was one hell of a last print on SPY… Selassie.

  23. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Whoa, nice steep ramp job into the close! Almost hit your target karen. How’d you do that again?

  24. karen says:

    Onlooker, just remember how wrong i was this week on gold, crude and the usd… : )

  25. psm2112 says:

    “Did the CRA cause…”? Without reading more than two paragraphs – it is blatant neocon, Chicago School nonsense. Did you post ironically?

    Ah, the great myth of The Government Distortions in the Marketplace. Paul Krugman puts it this way more or less: if the free market is so nimble, how can a little thing like a government get in its way? Put another way, what’s wrong with a rule that ensures that we unhinge our next dollar of GDP growth from our next barrel of imported oil (as was done in Japan, France, Britain, Denmark, … after the 70′s oil crisis; countries that today use the same amount of oil as they did then – from P. Tertzakian’s ‘Thousand Barrels a Second’)?