Lost in all of the bank stress tests and market rally is a little data point today: Its the Employment Situation Report.

Given the past 6 months mayhem, we are set up for a better than expected number. Median estimates of economists for Payrolls is a fall of 600,000.

Remember, “Less bad is the new good.”

Release is due at 8:30.

Category: Employment, Psychology

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

101 Responses to “NFP Data: “Less bad is the new good””

  1. adavydov says:

    U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell 539,000 in April. Unemployment rate is 8.9%

  2. adavydov says:

    Prior revised to 699K

  3. dead hobo says:

    It’s ok. We’re all going to be census workers.

  4. Pete says:

    I just read that is 539,000 . I guess that is “good” news .

  5. Ian leNobel says:

    228,000 jobs added via Birth/Death…..lol….added.

  6. dead hobo says:

    Becky Quick, when she heard a guest commentator mention the jobs report was ‘bad’ and that high number of census jobs were low quality jobs most people don’t want unless they’re desperate, said REPEATEDLY, “I’ don’t understand, They’re jobs”. Her reaction appeared honest.

  7. skline2 says:

    Does any have a spreadsheet on what the initial report was versus the revised number? Does the government’s website have this data? It’s just ridiculous and blatantly fraudulent that the initial number is reported and revised down the next month every single time.

  8. dead hobo says:

    skline2 Says:
    May 8th, 2009 at 8:41 am

    Does any have a spreadsheet on what the initial report was versus the revised number?

    This ‘effect’ has been common with a lot of statistics recently. Surprisingly, it’s always ignored in the media.

  9. Stuart says:

    2009 Net Birth/Death Adjustment, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
    Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    Mining & Logging
    -2 2 1 1
    -79 8 23 38
    -28 6 6 -8
    Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
    -58 10 17 16
    -14 7 0 5
    Financial Activities
    -33 8 5 1
    Professional & Business Services
    -99 36 16 65
    Education & Health Services
    -10 17 -1 25
    Leisure & Hospitality
    -19 35 41 76
    Other Services
    -14 5 6 7
    Total Nonfarm Birth/Death Adjustment
    -356 134 114 226

  10. cvienne says:

    @ dead hobo

    Tell Quickie “she’s fired” give her a clipboard and send her out on the beat…

    After about a month, ask her back and see if she understands…

  11. Stuart says:

    Bludgeoned behind smoke and mirrors, again. 226K fictitious jobs added into the calc through the birth/death model, INCLUDING 38,000 construction jobs. 72,000 Govt jobs, mostly census workers (temporary) to boost the total. Sigh.

  12. PrahaPartizan says:

    No, the number is not -539K. The real number is that associated with PRIVATE non-farm payroll jobs and that figure came in at -611K. The Federal gubmint had to add 66K jobs, with the states and local governments adding another 6K due to education hires. This report basically is just slightly worse than the consensus, unless one wants to discard the free-market mantra that only private-sector jobs really count. Nonetheless, this report would seem to indicate that the general economy is still struggling and that private firms continue to slash payroll as they try to justify executives’ bonuses.

  13. Marcus Aurelius says:

    The following numbers were released by the government, yesterday:

    - 4,375,829


    85, 423,002

    + 67.53%


  14. Stuart says:

    We find out, again, who in the main stream media is too brain dead stupid to see through the statistical alchemy and critically question the data or are simply paid up members of the kool-aid society.

  15. some_guy_in_a_cube says:

    Hey, look at the bright side of the numbers, the economy is now destroying jobs at a rate of only 6.5 million a year. Buy buy buy!!!

  16. buermann says:

    skline2, “a spreadsheet on what the initial report was versus the revised number?”


  17. cvienne says:

    If one is a TRUE BEAR (with reason), it is time to show your colors and be patient…Bears should have more patience than Bulls…

    I liken the action by the USG to trying to get the country out of a financial jam by going to the races and “letting it all ride” on a pick 6 ticket…

    So maybe we’re all happy and giddy right now because the FIRST RACE just came in (which was ‘rigged’ because to decided to put a multiple bet ticket on it and take 6 out of the 8 horses in the race)…

    In time, you’re going to need to see single winners occur in precision if Geithy ever hopes to go to the teller window at the end…

    Smile…& reward yourself with a beer and a dog while you relish that first race victory.

  18. HCF says:

    Has the Birth/Death model ever SUBTRACTED jobs? That single number has to be the biggest fudge factor known to man!


  19. adavydov says:

    @HCF: last time was this January (-356) in fact Stuart posted the exact numbers up above.

  20. paulyarbles says:

    Given that Ben “My past statements show that I really don’t know much of anything” Bernanke was saying that the unemployment rate would max at 10% a few days ago I expected a better report. The fact that the -66,000 revisions from prior months kind of takes the sparkle off of the 61,000 improvement from the expected losses and that these downward revisions are commonplace is, of course, ignored by the MSM.

    The Bloomberg positive spin has already started, check out the headline…

    U.S. Job Losses Shrink as Economy Began to Stabilize; Rate Rises to 8.9%


    The certainty in the headline makes me feel really really good.

  21. rob says:

    A year ago, it was job losses aren’t above those historical recessionary levels… (500k) but now that is spun as good because it isn’t 600k. Oh look we can send the field medic back home and put the patient just in ICU on critical life support, the hemorrhaging has stopped!

  22. cvienne says:

    @ Marcus Aurelius

    And the scores in Major League Baseball were 4-2, 5-2, 3-1, 8-3, 9-4, 4-3, 5-4, 13-3, 8-6, 6-5, & 6-0

    In weather…the forecast…

    In the Rocky Mountains…Cloudy…………….In the Cloudy Mountains…Rocky

  23. rob says:

    Whatever happened to news reporting without the spin… “U.S. Jobs losses are 539k. No idea why but there’s the number”

  24. cvienne says:

    Thank God it’s a census taking year!

    Now we know where 1.5 million of the 4 million jobs that BHO promised back on election night are going to come from…

  25. Stuart says:

    Nice summary from Across the Curve
    “Labor Pains
    May 8th, 2009 8:52 am
    This report does not look real swell to me. The net revisions subtract 66K and the one area of strength was government workers where my friends at UBS had a nice call on the census worker hiring (66K also).

    Back out the 132K and you get -671.

    There is weakness in every category of this report except government and education and health.”

  26. Marcus Aurelius says:


    Thank god for Monty Python/George Carlin, huh? ; )

  27. cvienne says:

    More on Census jobs…

    Why all the fuss about hiring workers at taxpayers expense?

    Why not just plug in that BIRTH/DEATH factor like they do with NFP and call it a day?

  28. cvienne says:

    @Marcus Aurelius

    It was Carlin and “The Flintstones”…But thank God for Monty Python too…

  29. ben22 says:

    There it is, just trotted it out:

    Liesman about two minutes ago: “all these loss assumptions in the stress test are worse than any two year period including the depression. some people say they aren’t stressful enough but I haven’t seen anyone write in to say what it should have been”

  30. twshore says:

    @ adavydov…that January negative number for the b/d was the revision for last year. In other words, one a year they have to admit their model sucks and clean up the number. BR has written about this in the past.

    This report sucks as much as the last few months. Last month was revised to -699k….I’m sure it’s a mere coincendence they stopped just shy of -700k.

  31. cvienne says:


    What amazes me is that the MSM has people so mesmerized on the “stress” aspect of the tests in the first place…

    Nobody is looking at the other side of the ledger…GROWTH

    If you, ahem, assume BAC is trading at a 15.2 p/E ratio right now (who believes that anyway based on Fasby), but let’s say you do anyway…Well yesterday, some analyst put a price target of $24 on BAC…

    So assuming nothing changes, that takes the P/E ratio up to around 26…

    That’s fine in a “growth” economy, but I’d sure like to see what further GROWTH occurs after a simple few months of “re-fi’s” make their way through the goose…


  32. cvienne says:


    Yeah…they looked at it and said “CRAP we’ve got a 7 handle” and went out and hired 1,000 census takers

  33. Onlooker from Troy says:

    The birth/death model B.S. has to be the most ridiculous and intellectually dishonest thing I’ve seen in govt statistics. How can anybody really believe that crap? Stuart pointed out the numbers above. These people have no shame and are pathological liars.

    Anything for the cause. Ends justify the means. Unfortunately the ends won’t even pan out the way they tell themselves it will.

  34. Stuart says:

    For Liesman to say: “but I haven’t seen anyone write in to say what it should have been” means he is being willfully blind. Perhaps no one sent him an e-mail but there are gazillions of write ups saying what was wrong with the tests and how they should’ve been rectified. Liesman, once again, lying.

  35. cvienne says:


    Liesman has been secretly auditioning for Jared Bernstein’s job for the past 6 months

  36. KidDynamite says:

    i finally figured out how to say what i’ve been trying to say:


    bottom line: does it really matter what Timmy and Big Ben think when they’ve PROVEN their model doesn’t work? the american economy is not a con-game – despite the wishes of the government – it’s NOT about confidence when you lack the funds to spend that hope with.

  37. rootless_cosmopolitan says:


    “Does any have a spreadsheet on what the initial report was versus the revised number? Does the government’s website have this data?”


    “It’s just ridiculous and blatantly fraudulent that the initial number is reported and revised down the next month every single time.”

    No, revisions are not ridiculous. They are inevitable due to statistical sampling and the use of statistical models. The first revision of each release is based on a smaller statistical sample than later revisions. I also wouldn’t assume deliberate manipulation of the data, necessarily. The payroll data are derived applying some extrapolation techniques on past data and newly sampled data using a statistical model. They aren’t measured data. Looking at the data for past revisions there seems to be a large variability of the revisions, upward and downward. The strong downward revisions during the current recession could indicate some strong bias of the underlying statistical model for small samples, when the economy is contracting sharply.

    Anyway, no matter what the final revision for the April data will be, released in two month from now, the stock market got its happy data point and the party continues. Who cares about reality?


  38. Mannwich says:

    “Better than expected.” But of course.

  39. cvienne says:

    The NASDAQ 100 rolled under the SPX for the first time (yesterday) since this rally began on March 6th…

    Today, despite the DOW & S&P being up, I see INTC down, MSFT, flat, AAPL slightly down, and GOOG slightly up…

    SPY up 1.5 but QQQQ only up .5…

    Is TECH going to start leading this market down into a correction?

  40. willid3 says:

    but wait theres more. just wait in May the auto companies will add their workers to the total. followed in June by the auto dealerships and part companies. in july we will add the media companies layoffs to the list . ands that just GM and C shutting down, never mind F and the others doing the same

  41. adavydov says:

    @twshore: right, I never meant to imply that it wasn’t. My question is what’s the point of even using the B/D adjustment? Its not like the employment number is a leading indicator (in fact we know its a trailing one) so why try to incorporate this adjustment into the model? It doesn’t make the employment numbers at the time of collection any more accurate/indicative of a turnaround (i.e. the employment data still lag true economic recovery meaning even with the adjustment they haven’t properly captured the turn in the economy because of their reliance on historic estimates of nonreporters that have gone out of business versus those that simply didn’t get their report in on time, as well as on historic estimates of people working at new establishments). My problem with the B/D adjustment is that due to its reliance on historic estimates it is always likely to be over/underestimating job losses, thereby introducing added variance into the analysis; I think by eliminating this adjustment and looking at the tried and true employment number prior to any adjustment will eliminate additional variance from the analysis while still offering you a look at the big employment picture, I mean if jobs are being created the gross of B/D number will show this, and if they are being destroyed it will show that also.

    So again I ask, if the only benefit of the B/D adjustment is added variance (i.e. error) why the hell do we continue to use it?

  42. rootless_cosmopolitan says:

    @Onlooker from Troy:

    “The birth/death model B.S. has to be the most ridiculous and intellectually dishonest thing I’ve seen in govt statistics. How can anybody really believe that crap? Stuart pointed out the numbers above. These people have no shame and are pathological liars.”

    I suspect you wrongly assume the data releases were more exact w/o the birth/death model. The B/D model is a statistical model that is used to correct the data derived using another statistical model. The large B/D adjustment only shows how badly the other model performs on its own to get reliable payroll data.


  43. Chubby Davis says:

    March 9, 6,547….May 8, 8,547….. oh my!


  44. adavydov says:

    @rootless: please see my post above. So why is it that you CORRECTLY assume that the model is more correct with the adjustment?

  45. Rich_Lather says:

    willid3 Says:
    May 8th, 2009 at 9:44 am

    but wait theres more. just wait in May the auto companies will add their workers to the total. followed in June by the auto dealerships and part companies. in july we will add the media companies layoffs to the list . ands that just GM and C shutting down, never mind F and the others doing the same

    …and all the laid off teachers at the end of the school year.

  46. Strassertalk says:

    Layoffs slow to 539,000? Nearly all industries negative: mfg, retail, construction, professional business – - – oh wait, +66,000 for Government jobs, Census workers being trained. http://bit.ly/Govk

  47. 1001 says:


    apologist for the White House


  48. cvienne says:

    @ Transor Z

    Sure…Lezner and a few others were probably AVERAGING down in the October – March period…

    Now the race is on WITH ALL THESE GUYS to dupe retail investors into buying their portfolios…

    This is no different a tactic than what the National Association of Realtors were telling you in 2005-2006

    “Home prices will continue to go UP”…

  49. Mannwich says:

    Me-thinks the NAZ is losing steam. Like I pointed out the other day, I think QID has formed a bottom(around 35 or so). Like Steve Barry noted, it’s “generational low”, buying opportunity!

  50. franklin411 says:

    Your tears sustain me.

  51. cvienne says:


    Look at a comparison chart on the NDX 100 & the $SPX since March 6th…

    Tech led all the way…Just yesterday those lines crossed (and TECH is weaker today relatively)…

    In a few weeks, they’ll start ratcheting up the Biotech conferences…They might have to start pulling some of FRANKLIN’s “nano-rabbits” out of some hats and get biotech moving to keep the Q’s rolling

  52. rootless_cosmopolitan says:


    According to BLS, testing the estimated payroll data w/o B/D adjustment and estimated payroll data w/ B/D adjustment against the head count from tax records (the so called benchmark revision done every March) shows that latter has been much closer to the measured data than former. At least for the data accumulated for the whole year:


    This doesn’t necessarily mean that the B/D model is based on better assumptions than the payroll estimate w/o B/D adjustment. Maybe both models are just biased in opposite directions so that the composite data are closer to reality. Two model artifacts canceling each other.


  53. Mannwich says:

    @cvienne: Maybe franklin can produce some “nano-revenue” or “nano-profits” in that lab of his. He can partner with Jack Welch on that project.

  54. Mannwich says:

    @franklin411: It’s easy to be so sanguine when one lives in the double La-La Land that is Southern Cal and academia. It’s like a different planet X 2. Be sure to stick around in the coming months. The fun is just getting started.

  55. leftback says:

    As I mentioned yesterday, we are likely to see some Treasury buying soon, especially at the long end. BB has done far too much work here to have the long bond blow up in his face and curtail the “green shoots” recovery.

    That will firm up the US$ a little bit and probably curtail the run-up in the XLB, XLE etc.. that really ignited the equity rally in March – but are now looking over-bought. I am watching for lower highs in the IYR and the XLF.

    If this was a real reflationary recovery, TIPS and gold would be screaming higher. Watch gold and oil fall next week as the $ rises against the Euro, on the argument that US is leading Eurozone out of recession (!!). For the time being at least we are absolutely awash in crude oil, and the recent trade is more speculation than anything else.

  56. Rich_Lather says:

    Don’t believe your eyes, man
    Just listen to Liesman

  57. cvienne says:


    Don’t you have a game of ultimate frisbee to play in the QUAD or something? You don’t need to be hanging around here…

  58. centiare says:

    I know everyone here likes to discuss the nitty gritty details, but there’s an even simpler means of analyzing the numbers: strip out non-FIRE sector wages & employment. Since we know FIRE related economic activity accounted for something like 70% of GDP during the 00′s, any declines in that sector have to be more than offset by a 2: 1 ratio in the remaining 30% just to get to a steady state.

    We blew our capital wad during the 00′s not on future productivity, but consumption. Not only is the FIRE economic model not coming back, but there is nothing to replace it. To top it off, the FedGov is now the capital recipient & employer of last resort. If you think any of this makes for a compelling story of potential economic growth, then you should be long in the market.

    We are going to hit 20% unemployment & a 20% contraction in GDP. This has nothing to do with the stock market, which only reflects current & ongoing manipulation and Fed financing activities.

  59. franklin411 says:

    Nah, this is fun for me. Watching the bears twist in the wind…mumbling in disbelief at data that proves their case wrong…claiming it’s all some sort of massive conspiracy against them…doubling down on their bets…watching their feet jerk as the life is slowly drawn out of them on the gallows.

    Does it remind you of something? It should–the bears are now imitating the behavior of last year’s bulls who got crushed because they refused to believe the data.

  60. leftback says:

    @franklin: You have a point here, but be careful, you might get penalized 15 yards on the kick-off for taunting.
    I wouldn’t wander too far into the woods if I were you, the Bear is still out there, and he might fancy a snack.

  61. Mannwich says:

    @franklin411: It’s OK to taunt if you were actually putting your money where your mouth is. Are you doing that? Many of us are, so if you’re, please kindly STFU.

  62. Mannwich says:

    that’s, “so if you’re NOT,” please STFU. Get my drift ‘ol franky?

  63. franklin411 says:

    I agree, although not so much for taunting as for believing. It seems as soon as you form a thesis about this market, you are proven wrong. So we’ll see!

  64. cvienne says:


    You’re right in saying we’re ‘awash’ in crude oil…Anecdotally, the are running out of storage spaces and tankers to hold the stuff…Beacuse some production capacity has been taken off line, if there were a “shock to the system”, it could be a reason that the price stays high relative to demand at present…

    I think Oil is playing a little “catch-up” to gold at present…Crude went down around 80% peak to trough from last years top to the most recent bottom…Gold only retraced about 30% p-t (but then regained a lot of that)…

    So I think we’re in this period where gold stays relatively steady (680-1000 level) while everything else comes into its own balance…Since I see no signs therefore of gold making any EXPLOSIVE moves to the upside, and since crude oil supplies are bound to be a little saturated (unless some exogenous event occurs)…Everyone will take this as a sign that QE is A-OK…

    This could go on for awhile if REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY doesn’t pick up (as I don’t suppose it will because I think the mortgage re-fi’s are just a phenomena of a few months, and I don’t see consumer spending going back to what it was)…

    It’s going to take the Bond Vigilantes to restore order to the system…I’m not sure in the end if BB’s water pistol can match their firehose at that point…

    Then we’ll see if this little BHO, BB, Timmy, Larry, emporer has any clothes…

  65. franklin411 says:

    Yep, I have a small IRA that I play with (60 year time frame). Long only, of course. Shorting is about as un-American as sending money to al Qaeda imo.

  66. Mannwich says:

    @franklin411: So we’re all “Un-American” if we short? Which means you’re calling many of us “Un-American”. Fuck YOU! How about that? I can speak for myself and say that I’m just trying to protect myself and my family accordingly, so please STFU NOW. Someday you’ll grow up and understand.

  67. HCF says:


    The point is to remain liquid and solvent enough when the market is going against you. This economy and market have quite a ways to go before the bulls can claim anything more than a temporary, moral victory.


  68. cvienne says:


    So if you just read my comments to LEFTBACK (and understood them), what I’m saying is that we’re all admitting here that this rally could go on for either quite some time (or quite some amplitude) as the case may be…

    Sure, we lament that because it may be against our financial positioning, but I think there are enough smarts around here to not be DOUBLING DOWN at every corner…

    This is going to play out EXACTLY as the housing market did…I started to see that writing on the wall clear back in 2003-2004 (when all the cheap money and ARM’s were hitting the street)…I ended up selling my home early 2006 simply because I knew the price was outrageous…Recently, December ’09 I bought a NEW house and simply paid CASH for it 9at a discounted price)…

    All I’m trying to say is this…Your Administration is going to need to have something better than financial manipulation up its sleeve if it thinks it’s going to get the economy on even kilter over time…

    During the housing run, people were denial ALL ALONG that prices would ever go down…Then the music stopped…It’s going to be the same thing with the equity markets now…How or when it will happen, I don’t know…

    Eerily, it looks more and more like we might be headed for a 1987 type event (where it happens suddenly)…

  69. HCF says:

    >Shorting is about as un-American as sending money to al Qaeda imo.

    Seriously, this is about as dumb as saying that Barack Obama is a Muslim fundamentalist.


  70. Mannwich says:

    Franklin411 sounds just like the Bush-apologists/ideologues, but just on the Left. That’s about as “Un-American” (and quite frankly, stupid) as it gets.

  71. HCF says:

    Incidentally, we ARE sending money to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in much more direct ways. Where does most of the world get it’s oil and heroin from? Would we be “friends” with the Saudis if their most precious commodity was camels?


  72. cvienne says:


    RE: “shorting…UN American”

    If you read my last thread, I mentioned that I SOLD my house in 2006 and REBOUGHT another house (for cash) in 2009…

    Buying and selling homes is not fundamentally different from “shorting” an equity market…(I essentially “shorted” HOMES in 2006 – and “covered” that short in 2009)…

    It’s all about PRICE DISCOVERY…What’s UN-AMERICAN about that?

    What IS closer to being Un-American in my opinion is the idea that you create mechanisms to FIX prices (as in cramdown mortgages, or assistance to troubled homebuyers), to FIX prices where they are and not allow for price discovery…

    And how do you pay for the PRICE FIXES…You TAX it out of every American…

    That’s SOCIALISM 101, not CAPITALISM…But I guess we live in a SOCIALIST country now…That’s the way it is…

  73. rootless_cosmopolitan says:


    “Does it remind you of something? It should–the bears are now imitating the behavior of last year’s bulls who got crushed because they refused to believe the data.”

    I suppose you also believed the first releases of the payroll data for the last 12 month every time, because you are among the ones who don’t refuse to believe.


  74. leftback says:

    @franklin: Is “sending money” to GS by buying stock such a good idea? I mean, is it really? Is the enrichment of a corrupt banking oligarchy truly in line with the ideals of the founding fathers who framed the US constitution?

  75. I-Man says:

    Selling short is “un-American”??? That might be the dumbest thing I have ever read on here.

    Now… before we devolve totally to the land of the yahoo boards… let’s just all ignore the pot stirring of our new companion Franklin411 and get back to what it is we do here in all of its “UnAmerican Glory”.

    Besides, I think Manny (of the “wich” variety not the ramirez) has captured most of our sentiments toward our new friend’s musings quite resoundingly.

    But seriously… unamerican? Gimme a break bro.

  76. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Interesting article indicating that smart money is expecting a downdraft:


    Joe retail doesn’t play here.

  77. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Time to put someone on ignore. Which is where he is for me.

  78. I-Man says:

    @ Franklin411:

    Just one more thing… while we’re on the topic of UnAmerican… I think this is of particular relevance to you my friend.

    “I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study Mathematicks and Philosophy, Geography, Natural History, Naval Architecture, Navigation, Commerce and Agriculture, in order to give their Children the right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.”
    -John Adams

  79. cvienne says:

    Since we all know that the UGS and the bankers are simply pulling levers to dupe ordinary citizens out of their money, I say everybody should just collectively STOP PAYING THEIR BILLS…

    - If the government doesn’t want to pay it’s bills, WHY SHOULD WE?

    I mean, think of the poor slob who had his 401K invested in BAC last year and saw his assets lose 80% while BAC is holding the mortgage on his property (and credit balance on his card)…

    Then, he finds out now that whatever paltry amount is remaining on his BAC equity is going to get dilited, and BAC is going to “hoarde that cash” and not offer him better terms on either of his loans?

    And next year, his government is going to raise his taxes, to fund all this assistance?

    If everyone were to REVOLT all at once at this and STOP PAYING THEIR BILLS, then we’d see the REAL STRESS TEST we’d need to see…

  80. leftback says:

    Franklin might also want to read the thoughts of another great American, Mr Jefferson, on the bankers of his era.

  81. cvienne says:


    …and now 12 generations later, the sons are studying “nano-socialism”…

  82. cvienne says:



  83. franklin411 says:

    Ah….I understand now. Shorts are patriots because they exploited the SEC’s incompetence to create the negative feedback loop that destroyed the banks, right? And by destroying the banks, they restored liberty, yes?

    For Profit!!!….*cough* I mean… For Liberty, we must go short!!!


  84. cvienne says:

    Franklin…let me ask you a question…I’m being SERIOUS HERE (this isn’t a trap or a joke), I just want a straight answer…

    You with me?

  85. cvienne says:

    come on…I don’t have all day…

  86. Mannwich says:

    I think someone needs to join otto in the penalty box.

  87. cvienne says:

    I guess you’re busy slobbering all over your hero on TV…

    When you’re ready, I have a SERIOUS question for you…

  88. cvienne says:


    While we’re waiting for Franklin to clean himself off after seeing his hero on TV…

    Hey Manny…Norice that DOW & S&P are positive and NASDAQ is negative?

  89. adavydov says:

    @rootless 10:24am: are you fucking kidding me? Is that what passes for statistical analysis at the BLS? Nice sample size! Their *proof* focuses primarily on yearly analysis, not monthly which is what we are talking about here, and as you can see from my discussion with twshore earlier the yearly B/D adjustment is always going to look great because it includes a prior year revision (hence the negative number this January). So, yea in the long term when we average out the economic cycles everything is peachy and fine since the model uses historical rates, but over ST intervals especially in time of market upheaval the model is shit and does nothing but add error to the job loss estimates.

  90. DL says:


    Don’t forget…. shorts have to cover sooner or later.

    (I guess at that point they become “pro-American”…?)

  91. rootless_cosmopolitan says:


    BLS would have to do a benchmark revision every month to be able to compare the monthly data. However, if the estimated payroll data w/o B/D adjustment are far more off from measured data than w/ B/D adjustment even accumulated over 12 months, smoothing out monthly variability, it’s not plausible at all to assume that the estimated payroll data w/o B/D adjustment would be more accurate for monthly values.


  92. danm says:


    “Does it remind you of something? It should–the bears are now imitating the behavior of last year’s bulls who got crushed because they refused to believe the data.”

    Sorry but the gang up on franklin is exactly like the gang up that occured on Larry N. from Arizona when he was laughing at the bears. According to him, real estate ALWAYS goes up. We haven’t heard from him in a while. I wonder how his blind optimism has helped him.

  93. danm says:

    Ah….I understand now. Shorts are patriots because they exploited the SEC’s incompetence to create the negative feedback loop that destroyed the banks, right? And by destroying the banks, they restored liberty, yes?

    perma-longs are unpatriotic because they keep on injecting more money in unproductive, badly managed corrupt zombie companies instead of financing hard working people in new industries, destroying the future well being of the American people.

  94. ButtoMcFarty says:

    F411 is a poseur.

    I’m guessing college flunk out living in mom’s basement….but I might be giving far too much credit.

    It’s obvious his only purpose now is to bring pointy sticks to the discussions….a classic sign of immaturity and ignorance. Heh….maybe he is a PhD candidate after all….most I’ve met are folks that can’t deal with the real world so choose to keep climbing the ivory tower of self delusion. Academia sure ain’t what it used to be….it used to require a fully developed brain.

    If his “shorting is unAmerican” dribble isn’t proof enough of his intentions….well I’m not sure what it takes. I suspect every time folks rise to his stink bait F411 gets that tingly feeling down below….LOL

  95. dead hobo says:

    I was just looking at a 5 year S&P chart on yahoo and saw this rally in perspective.

    So, where’s the next bottom going to be? This rally doesn’t have much steam. It will probably turn when nobody sees it coming in a few days. There’s too much sucker money chasing stocks and oil now. But at some point even the dumb money will look out and see nothing but air beneath where they are standing. (aka Road Runner Cartoon)

    So, where’s the next bottom point. I bet 800 at least, although some surprise bad numbers at a strategic time could take it to 750 or lower.

    While I normally detest magic charts, I must admit to being smitten by other significant bottoms, like 2003 for example, where there was a lot of oscillation at the low point before turning upwards …. and the economy was in better shape then. I expect more oscillation at this bottom too. How’s this bottom going to shake out?

  96. dead hobo says:

    New Conspiracy Theory!!!

    The current run up in stocks was intended to benefit the troubled banks. An optimistic market at a strategic date (the stress test report date) would make it easiest to sell stock at the highest price possible in the shortest time period. Thus, the run up was manufactured to enthusiastically capitalize the banks immediately after the test results.

  97. Transor Z says:

    “I must admit to being smitten by other significant bottoms . . .”

    Happens to me all the time. :)

  98. Thatguy says:


    That theory is hardly new.


    You are soooo right. F411 is throwing out all the red meat he can today. Shorts aren’t patriotic, shorts are responsible for the economic calamity, bear tears sustain me, how can you ignore this awesome data (9% unemployment and -6% GDP). That fishing lure is pretty obvious, but I guess the fish here are hungry.


  99. cvienne says:

    Why are we all lamenting so much here gentlemen?

    The market we desire to “short” is getting cheaper and cheaper every day…

    There’s a SALE at Penny’s!