Not Winnie the Pooh!
By Barry Ritholtz - May 1st, 2009, 4:30PM
Enjoy your weekend!
>
Hat tip Dan
(Circulating by email).
Macro Notes
We don’t want your help because maybe we don’t need itPeter Boockvar
While yesterday's US stock market close was poor, Asia and Europe didn't follow today as debt in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc... rallied, their CDS narrowed and stocks bounced. The Greek finance minister said January tax revenues came in above expectations and that spending was below target for the month and said "that means the deficit reduction for January is well within what we have promised." The euro is rising in turn. Also helping is the story that Trichet is headed to the European Union leaders summit a day early in order to address Greece's problems even as the Greek finance...
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May 1st, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Hahahahaha!! Thanks for the weekend laugh. It’s the same laugh I had as I watched the gains in the last few minutes of trading today.
May 1st, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Awesome-Barry-when can I twitter this?
May 1st, 2009 at 5:25 pm
That’s awesome.
May 1st, 2009 at 5:57 pm
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/30/BUNA17CGD0.DTL
Carmakers’ woes hitting state jobs, revenue
“The association projects that California dealers will sell just over 1 million cars of all makes and models in 2009. “We were selling over 2 million cars just three years ago,” said Maas.
He said the average dealer had employed about 90 people in 2007, a figure the association thinks is now closer to 60 people.
Lloyd de Llamas, a sales tax expert with the HDL Cos. in Diamond Bar (Los Angeles County), a firm that helps cities plan their budgets, said cars represent about 10 percent of all taxable sales in the state. ”
Afternoon, all…as a matter of fact had a ham sandwich for lunch….
May 1st, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Bruce, Bruce, Bruce: Stop it with facts and reality. It’s spring for God sakes, even here in Minnesota! The trees and flowers are blooming, grass is green, and birds are singing. Everything is wonderful. Green shoots.
May 1st, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Sorry, but I had to post this from Zero Hedge on the REIT, TALF topic. The last paragraph, especially, is laugh out loud funny…..
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/talf-v3645-now-with-enhanced-cmbs.html#disqus_thread
May 1st, 2009 at 6:08 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aIP0spYeXSPc&refer=germany
May 1 (Bloomberg) — “There have to be three near- miracles” for a partnership with Fiat SpA to succeed in rescuing Chrysler LLC, says Dennis DesRosiers, an auto consultant in Richmond Hill, Ontario.
“First, Americans have to embrace small cars,” he says. “They never have.” Neither have they bought Italian small cars in any volume; nor have small cars been profitable for any auto company in North America that wasn’t Japanese, says DesRosiers, a market research consultant for 24 years.
The success of a Chrysler marriage with Fiat isn’t a given, said Rebecca Lindland, a senior auto analyst at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.
“To say that this Fiat deal is going to solve everything is just naïve,” Lindland said. “It’s just not true.”
Afternoon, Manny…had a long talk last several days with my brother, the brain, when he and his wife came to visit…I’ll try to post some of what he thought over the w/e..he runs a design team for Sun that builds blade servers…
May 1st, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Bruce,
it’d be interesting to hear if thought JAVA got as screwed as bad as I think they did with that take-wayunder below U$D 10..
speaking of java, for all you ADBE ‘ficianados, see: “Earlier this year, Adobe had to fess up that its flagship PDF Reader, used by virtually the entire business and Internet communities had a critical security vulnerability which could cause the application to crash and could potentially allow an attacker to take control of the affected system. Now their security staff is reporting that a critical vulnerability in every version of the Reader may be affected due to a weakness found in JavaScript.
Adobe Confirms PDF Zero-day, Urges Users To Kill JavaScript
by Gregg Keizer, Computerworld, April 30, 2009
All versions of Adobe Reader and Acrobat are vulnerable…
http://bluebadger.com/WordPress/?p=273
May 1st, 2009 at 6:43 pm
@Bruce: Would definitely be interested to hear about that. A buddy of mine works at Oracle in sales and is having a helluva time closing any business these days. And I mean ANY business as in zero, none in almost a year now.
May 1st, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Mannwich,
get that guy to tell you about the avg. capacity utilization rates in the typical Server Farm..
the ol’ SUNW has the apps that can drive higher utilizations..LSS: the domestic market is over-Server-Farmed in an era of increasing electricity rates, PR dept.s wanting to spew greenwash, and soon-to-be ‘carbon taxes’..among other winds.
your bud should bone-up on selling apps..
May 1st, 2009 at 7:06 pm
Re: Java
A charting program I use sent me out to the java.com website for an update last week. While it was downloading, Spybot caught it trying to install a keyboard logger.
Comforting.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:37 pm
I’m still laughing…. That is too funny!!
May 1st, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Stillaway,
right? spybot is way underloved, those cats claw. if peep had any sense, McAfee would be thought of as that guy from Scotland, if at all..
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=spybot
they’re so good, “someone” even named a worm after them..
May 1st, 2009 at 7:51 pm
@Bruce
Small cars, especially red ones are my favorite because they are so much more fun to drive. I have a Pontiac right now and I think it’s the best small car I’ve ever owned. Oops, they just canned Pontiac didn’t they? The morons should have canned Oldsmobile or Buick but they make more selling them. Anyway, it’s 7 years old so I’m not worried about replacement parts as I can go to the salvage yard.
My wife drives our new Sonata. She loves it. It’s a boat :+)
May 1st, 2009 at 7:52 pm
hey guys
Read an article on street.com site today with respect to ECRI calling an end to the recession. I think they have a good track record here. Anyone like to comment?
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10495033/1/banerji-the-end-of-the-recession.html
Thanx!
May 1st, 2009 at 8:07 pm
Spybot is good (and free)- another great one that I found is *malwarebytes* (also free)- I had a nasty trojan that I could not shake and kept regenerating- malwarebytes is the only one that “put it down”- does not notify you of registry changes however (for the free version)-
http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
May 1st, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Pat G-
Oldsmobile was “taken out back and shot” several years ago. Buick is kept because it is a huge seller in China. I saw them all over Beijing- styled a bit differently- look pretty cool- quite the status symbol over there.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Malwarebytes is good – I’ll second that. Ahab, did you have a case of the Vundo?? That’s what I had, it was killing me. But Malwarebytes seems to have taken care of it.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:22 pm
@call me ahab
Never been to China but the picture of rather smaller people driving bigger cars is frightening. Are they sitting on phone books +:) Pontiacs Brands; Trans Am, Grand Am, Firebird, Solstice, Bonneville, G8, G6 and G5. Their ad was spot on “built to excite”. Like I said, it’s a bottom line issue for GM.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:25 pm
Whammer-
Vundo! Couldn’t remember- that was it!- what a pain in the ass- kept booting up no matter how many times the registry was fixed-
Malwarebytes “put that bitch down”
May 1st, 2009 at 8:33 pm
You Windozers crack me up.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Pat G-
To tell you the truth- Chinese aren’t that small- in fact I saw many tall Chinese. When I was in Tiananmen Square- a couple folks wanted their picture taken with me- I figured maybe they were visiting from the countryside and they could take the picture back to their village to show everyone their “Western friend”. If you ever go- beware the “Tea Room” scam. I knew about it but almost fell for it myself- in fact be skeptical of any gorgeous Chinese woman taking up a conversation with you in fluent English- not saying the “scam is on” but just be aware.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:41 pm
@call me ahab
There’s a lot of smaller Caucasians too. Thanks for the tip but what does the scam lead to?
May 1st, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Weekend!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTjG8E1utyA
May 1st, 2009 at 8:57 pm
cn,
I hope you’re running Linux, b/c if you’re an AAPL fanboy, the sorry news is their core is, now, the same as Wintels, the difference is cosmetic.
Microsoft and Apple Affirm Commitment to Build Next Generation Software for Macintosh
Companies announce patent cross-license agreement. Microsoft announces Office 98 for Macintosh; Apple announces Internet Explorer to be bundled with Mac OS. Product commitment backed up with $150M Microsoft investment in Apple Computer.
MACWORLD EXPO, Boston– August 6, 1997–In a keynote address delivered today at MACWORLD Boston, Apple Computer Inc. director and co-founder Steve Jobs and Microsoft Corp. chairman and CEO Bill Gates announced a broad product and technology development agreement between Apple and Microsoft including the following:
The companies agreed to a broad patent cross-licensing agreement. It paves the way for the two companies to work more closely on leading-edge technologies for the Mac platform.
Microsoft will develop and ship future versions of its popular Microsoft Office productivity suite, Internet Explorer and other Microsoft tools for the Mac platform.
Apple will bundle the Microsoft Internet Explorer browser with the Mac OS, making it the default browser in future operating system software releases.
Apple and Microsoft plan to collaborate on technology to ensure compatibility between their respective Virtual Machines for Java and other programming languages.
To further support its relationship with Apple, Microsoft will invest $150 million in non-voting Apple stock.
“In 1984, Steve Jobs and I stood together when Microsoft announced Microsoft Excel, an application that is widely credited with helping to define the potential of the Mac as a great applications platform,” said Gates. “Today’s announcements underscore our continued belief in the Mac as a platform for applications and leading-edge Internet technologies. Microsoft has millions of customers who rely on Macintosh technology and they can be assured that Microsoft products for the Mac will continue to be available.”
“We are thrilled at the prospect of working more closely with Microsoft on applications and Internet software” said Jobs. “We are confident that this is the beginning of a much closer relationship between the two companies, which will greatly benefit our common customers.”
http://www.apple.com/ca/press/1997/08/AppleMicrosoft.html
May 1st, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Read an article on street.com site today with respect to ECRI calling an end to the recession. I think they have a good track record here. Anyone like to comment?
These were the guys who kept saying we weren’t heading into a recession back in 2007.
IIRC they were very vocal about that being a very unlikely outcome and we were just facing maybe a “mid-cycle” slowdown.
Prospects were “bright” according to their indications.
The bulls back then were always bringing up the accuracy of ECRI’s past predictions as one of the best arguments that the bears were wrong on the economy and ECRI was right.
We permabears would counter that past predictions are meaningless if you’re now on Wall Street’s payroll as a professional shill.
It probably pays a lot better and requires a lot less work.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Pat G-
money out of your pocket of course! You’re walking around minding your own business in the Tiananmen Square/Forbidden City area- then a couple pretty Chinese woman say “Hi- where you from”. You of course tell them and start talking to them as you’re walking around and then you start thinking the women are “digging your western vibe” as they giggle every time you say “dude” – next thing, one tells you her friend is thirsty and would it be alright to stop and get something to drink-
Well- “Hell Yes” you say. Next thing you are going down the stairs into a small “tea room” where they lead you to a private room. In the room is a table set up with various teas and cups and pots, etc. Now- I bowed out by this time- radar finally being activated- however what they are trying to do is have you sample some teas with them. Harmless- right? Until you get the bill which is a staggering sum- and if you argue and refuse to pay then a few big dudes come out and make sure you pay. Better than getting into a Kung Fu fight I guess- but in the end- it’s your Ego that gets stomped- you were just scammed- and those gorgeous Chinese ladies weren’t really digging you at all.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:01 pm
“Times, they are a changin’ for Mac users. Fans of Mac systems have been relatively virus and trojan-free, since most malicious programmers usually aim their sights on PCs and Windows. Symantec’s Kevin Haley, director of security response, says, “The bad guys generally go toward the biggest target, what will get them the biggest bang for their buck.” CNN points out “Mac computers are known for their near-immunity to malicious computer programs that plague PCs.”
Apple enjoyed relative obscurity, with the number of personal computer systems being predominantly PCs. That seems to have changed now, though, with small, but growing numbers of malware targeting Macs.
The big one in the news now is a trojan horse program called iBotnet, which has infected only a few thousand Mac machines so far. It’s a relatively benign trojan, though, but represents a growing trend of Mac-specific viruses, trojans, and worms.
Symantec detailed iBotnet in Virus Bulletin’s January edition. The company still promotes that Macs are generally not threatened by malicious software, so long as reasonable precautions are taken. iBotnet itself is a part of a pirated download of iWork.
…
http://www.rev2.org/2009/04/23/apples-new-malware-and-security-woes/
May 1st, 2009 at 9:19 pm
I received a darling Pooh and Piglet birthday card from my mother last week, but it didn’t quite say that : ) I got a text from LAX this afternoon, “Lots of masks!”
May 1st, 2009 at 9:27 pm
BR- I like the new header image, much less busy.
“Apple enjoyed relative obscurity, with the number of personal computer systems being predominantly PCs. That seems to have changed now, though, with small, but growing numbers of malware targeting Macs.”
Great point. Plus Apple users have not had to deal with executable trojans that run on that os, so they may be more susceptible to the payload.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Happy B-Day Karen-
http://www.tealdragon.net/rs/samples/poohbday.jpg
May 1st, 2009 at 9:38 pm
thank you, ahab! very sweet. i need a few more candles on the cake : ) and perhaps something from cartier in the box!
May 1st, 2009 at 9:48 pm
don’t mention it- today is my unbirthday- 364 of those- nothing like a nice tall cold PBR on your unbirthday
May 1st, 2009 at 10:43 pm
@karen
Happy Birthday. It’s time for FNJ. Couldn’t find Happy Birthday rendition. Oh well.
http://www.mtvmusic.com/mayfield_curtis/videos/47275/let_s_do_it_again.jhtml
http://www.mtvmusic.com/mcferrin_bobby/videos/89948/don_t_worry_be_happy.jhtml
May 1st, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Or a little mellow.
http://www.mtvmusic.com/benson_george_1/videos/33744/let_s_do_it_again.jhtml
Best enjoyed with a nice rich red.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:16 pm
phx! wow! you got me perfectly : ) loved all 3. nice for our friday night music, too. tonight, i’m enjoying Layer Cake, an 07 Cab from Napa… originally, i bot it for the label/name.. one of my favorite movies… (Daniel Craig, Sienna Miller.) It’s quiet good tho, and the vintner (jason woodbridge) has a much more expensive label. thanks, again, for the music. just right. (altho, i’m still trying to find out who that kid is doin curtis…)
May 1st, 2009 at 11:18 pm
phx, the videos are spectacular.. so fun. thanks.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Gauge of future US economic growth at 13-wk high-ECRI
Fri May 1, 2009 10:30am EDT
(excerpt)
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) – A weekly measure of U.S. future
economic growth rose along with its annualized growth rate,
indicating imminent economic recovery, a research group said on
Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
ticked up to a 13-week high of 107.7 for the week ending April
24 from 107.2 in the previous week.
The index’s annualized growth rate also climbed to minus
17.4 percent from the prior week’s rate of minus 18.6 percent.
“With the level of the WLI in an upswing for seven weeks
now, an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight,” said
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The index level rose because of lower interest rates and
higher commodity prices and was partly offset by lower stock
prices, Achuthan said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYS00503420090501
It appears groupthink has the bears behind the curve. Or maybe ECRI is wrong; what are the chances of that?
There’s somethin’ happenin’ here; what it is ain’t exactly clear…
Buffalo Springfield
May 1st, 2009 at 11:37 pm
oh, i thot that was neil young! you must be older than i am :p
May 1st, 2009 at 11:39 pm
@ahab, you really are quite the PBR fan! It’s one thing to drink it right after you mow the lawn in July, another thing to drink it on a Friday night altogether………….
May 1st, 2009 at 11:39 pm
kj-
keep dreamin’ dude-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvRsOBF9YnU
May 1st, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Whammer-
well . . . I did say it was my unbirthday- and what better for that . . . my bong days are well behind me
May 1st, 2009 at 11:45 pm
btw, you are still all TOO bearish… i could show you how to view Steve Barry’s charts with an upward/positive bias, but you are all like those 3 ivory monkeys my father broughtt home from vietnam war (a tokyo leave, no doubt): see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:46 pm
@k I’m sure I am. But maybe not all that much. Glad you enjoyed the videos.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:50 pm
phx, loved ‘em.. copied the links for myself. KJ sighting Buffalo Springfield had me for a loop, tho.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:58 pm
not necessarily bearish- but do not see the catalyst for growth- economy was juiced by HELOCs and debt induced buying- assets have deflated- income is going south- nothing to be too excited about- not the end of the world- but definitely the end of an era-
as I said in a previous post- I don’t buy into the “upwardly mobile angst” that so captured my generation- creature comforts should not define who we are-
the world is out there- check it out- it’s a cool place
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:04 am
Read an article on street.com site today with respect to ECRI calling an end to the recession. I think they have a good track record here. Anyone like to comment?
These were the guys who kept saying we weren’t heading into a recession back in 2007.
No. Dont think so. They did a great job of forecasting this one actually. Way ahead of time. If you read their record its quite good. Thats why i was asking.
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:14 am
Re: the ECRI outlook. I don’t know if what their model is seeing is right or not. I’m skeptical (as always, of everything) that they’ve got it right because the economy is no doubt in worse shape than anything since the GD. I also don’t know what all the Fed policy actions will do, and I doubt they do either.
My bet is that they’ve modeled it on post WWII downturns and those just don’t resemble this one in terms of the massive global deleveraging that ongoing and being battled by the Fed and other CBs.
An impending inventory bounce from deeply depressed levels may look like future growth, but if the new demand level is so much lower (and it has to be as we all know; witness auto production) then either they’ll overshoot on production and we’ll be right back into that cycle, or they’ll only be able to gear up to that new very depressed level.
And even if they’re “right”, what does that really mean? We all know that we’re in for a very slow growth economy that will be very fragile until we work off that debt load at least a bit. Employment will continue to shrink and then finally grow very slowly. I don’t think there’s much disagreement on those points. So it won’t feel like much of an improvement for the average Joe/Jane.
And it certainly doesn’t mean that the stock market will/should be starting a new bull just because we print a positive GDP quarter or two. Look at the last bear. It ended well after the recession ended as defined by GDP growth. And that’s probably the best comparison period because we were already deep in debt and there were real structural problems in the economy. Only a strong dose of easy money from the Fed arrested the fall and we all know what that led to; a bloated finance and housing economy that’s come crashing down.
The debt deleveraging we’re going through will not allow that same kind of “growth”, not that we’d want that particular flavor. We’ll be lucky just to stay out of deflation.
So maybe they’re right, but does it really matter?
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:16 am
bmc-
what do you think? where is the growth coming from? what industry do you see pulling us out into prosperity? what does your gut tell you? or . . . for the short term- what bubble do you foresee?
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:23 am
Here’s another outcome of our wonderful debt binge of the last decade:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aoglHAxZffTI&refer=home
It’s funny that for years people have been stumped by why college costs were rising so much, outpacing inflation. Even most economists, I do believe (surprise, surprise). Well duh, it seems so obvious in retrospect, now doesn’t it? It all traces back to the debt drug we’ve been on. It has caused enormous misallocation of resources and excess, all across our economy. Not many tough decisions have been made in this country for a long time. We just kept on borrowing, at all levels; individual, local, state, federal, company, universities, etc.
Even now we don’t want to make tough decisions to live within our means. This article shows some of that. We just keep looking to that endless fount of money streaming out of the future somewhere. It’s like magic.
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 am
karen (and any other bulls that wish to chime in) — what do you see as the characteristics of a “recovery”?
Is it simply a sufficient resurgence in stock prices, or is it a rebound in overall economic activity, something that would be reflected in a rising GDP, and eventually (long after the inflection point) a diminishment in the unemployment rate as the level of economic activity rises?
If it is an actual improvement in the level of economic activity, when do you see people having sufficient confidence to buy cars, consumer electronics, and basically do anything other than pay down debt and whatever it costs them to get through the day? Bear in mind that the level of employment is still dropping, foreclosures are accelerating up the socioeconomic ladder, and corporate profits appear to be flat on their back for the foreseeable future. Oh — and there’s also this mountain of debt, chock full of hollow pockets that the folks managing the recession would like us to believe have some actual value. But I can accept a picture that has us learning to live with eye-popping levels of debt all through the economy, just not a very good life.
That is the basis for the L-shaped recession, I believe. If anyone can paint me a picture that produces any sort of V- or U-shaped recovery, I’d like to hear it.
May 2nd, 2009 at 1:39 am
@ahab, I was just yanking your chain a little; thinking maybe you should bust out and have a Guinness or something, since it was a special occasion….. Happy Unbirthday!!
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:23 am
Man oh man that was funny! A A Milne is rolling over in his grave….probably in fits of laughter.
May 2nd, 2009 at 4:15 am
>> It’s funny that for years people have been stumped by why college costs were rising so much, outpacing inflation.
Maybe we, as a society, wouldn’t need to spend so much sending kids to college if they would learn more during K-12. Maybe the absence of funding — er, credit/debt — for 13+ would force a paradigm shift to make better use of those years. Learning more with less debt after graduation? Priceless.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:25 am
Whammer-
well a new day- and yes- another unbirthday- it’s just doesn’t get better than that
wunsacon Says:
“wouldn’t need to spend so much sending kids to college if they would learn more during K-12″
smart- I never understood all the mad desire to put one’s kids through college- I went to college- after 5 years in the USN- because I wanted to learn a thing or two- college has become almost an extension of high school- kids go- not necessarily motivated- and extend their adolescent years- still listening to their parents as children- my son who is graduating high school next month- I suggested to take off a year or two- grab a backpack and see what is out there- he couldn’t be more excited. Not the best student but a great snowboarder, good surfer, and a rock climbing fool- enjoy life I say.
May 2nd, 2009 at 11:37 am
ahab, that’s a good plan. (I’m envious…I need a time machine, damn it!) Good luck to your son.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:30 pm
[...] Found on the wonderful Big Picture blog. [...]
May 2nd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Poor Pooh is he right to worry the WHO said all of humanity is at risk well if he lives he will have to try to find a forecaster like this…
The following is from the Annual Report from 2008 for Tamiflu. There was a prediction for a 531% sales increase for 2009 wow these people are good I can only imagine the skill it takes to make such a bold prediction (who is doing the forecasting a psychic?) see page 6…
FY 2009 Outlook
Increased Sales and Income Expected in FY 2009
Due to Higher Sales of Growth Drivers
In FY2009, we expect revenues of ¥400 billion, up 22.4%
year-on-year, driven by further growth of our major
products. We project a 7.6% increase in product sales
excluding Tamiflu to ¥337.3 billion.
For the year, we forecast sales of Tamiflu to reach ¥53.0
billion, up 531.0%, due to expected resumption of government
stockpiling in FY2009 and the ongoing recovery
of the prescription rate for seasonal influenza.
http://bluelori.blogspot.com/2009/04/all-of-humanity-is-at-risk-says-who.html