The Back Story to Bailout Nation

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 25th, 2009, 2:00PM

Tomorrow is the official publication date of Bailout Nation. This is the back story to how and why the book came to be.

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Long story short:  After Bill Fleckenstein’s GREENSPAN’S BUBBLES was published, McGraw Hill asked him to do a follow up to that book.

He wisely said no.

However, Bill suggested they contact me.

Which they did. I turned the  publisher down (several times). Who has time to write a book? Besides, I did not want to do a fast, rush-to-judgment type of thing. But they were tenacious in their pursuit, and I eventually succumbed to their flattery — on my terms, however, including having final edit on the manuscript. (This becomes important later on, as you will soon see).

Because of the way events played out, I ended up writing this beast three separate times. Literally:  Bailout Nation was written as 3 complete books over 18 months.

The first version was a history of bailouts. I started playing with the idea of this back in October 2007.  (We were short a lot of financial names then).  By the Summer 2008, I had put together a broad overview covering the early 19th century, the history of the Fed, and a meaty arc from Lockheed (1971) to Bear Stearns (March 2008). It was a fairly pedestrian historical approach.

Around the time it was due (near Labor Day 2008), something funky was in the air . . . you could smell the leading edge of the approaching shitstorm. By the end of August 2008, I convinced the publisher to extend the deadline a few weeks.

Good thing I did . . . Boom! Fannie Mae blew up. Then Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America. Soon Merrill was on the ropes, followed by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, GM and GE. All hell was breaking loose. Well, I thought, at least the book will be more interesting. The expanded version of the manuscript, with greater emphasis on the latter part of 2008, was finished in December ’08.

Or so I thought.

After I handed the book into the publisher (McGraw Hill), they let me know they had problems with my assessment of the Ratings Agencies. They were unhappy with my calling them “Pimps & Hos“, or describing their business model of rating junk bonds as AAA for big fees as “Payola.” (What else would you call it?)

Not coincidentally, McGraw Hill owns of the largest Rating Agencies, Standard & Poor’s.

My compromise was to change the tone — namely, to remove the reference to Pimps. However, in its place I was going to add publicly available data and congressional testimony, more detailed analysis, and quotations from experts. When it was finished, I found the revised section to be less vitriolic — but far more devastating to S&P. They (along with fellow rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch’s) were key enablers to the entire crisis. There were many other guilty parties, but I simply could not under-emphasize the ratings agencies.

When McGH rejected it again, I exercised my right to buy the manuscript back from them in January 2009 (I returned the advance). Numerous publishers were interested, but I went with Wiley — they have a great deal of experience publishing business/investing related books, and as a publisher, had no conflicts of interest that would interfere with telling the full story.

The third version was the charm.

By now, the amount of bailout money going to mismanaged companies, reckless speculators, and incompetent corporate executives had skyrocketed to 14 trillion dollars. This was infuriating to anyone paying attention.

Astonishing things happened as the book progresses. The more I researched and wrote, the more it was apparent we were witnessing the greatest heist ever made. By the last section of the book, history’s biggest transfer of wealth — from the taxpayer to the Banksters — was taking place. Trillions were being shifted from the responsible to the reckless, from the prudent to the incompetent. It was infuriating — and you will see as the book progresses my initial academic tone gets replaced with greater snark and anger.

I not only had my ending, I had a new cause — exposing those who caused this mess, be they Democrat or Republican, Corporate CEO or derivatives trader.

I hope the end result is something that will inform and illuminate, while entertaining you along the way . . .

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FDIC Bank Failures (by Week)

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 25th, 2009, 12:15PM

In light of Friday’s BankUnited Failure, and our earlier post on rising foreclosures, here is an updated version of a chart I ran previously from Ron Griess of The Chart Store, showing bank failures:

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Bank Failures reported by FDIC

5-22-09-bank-failures

Regulation In The Automobile Industry

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 25th, 2009, 10:15AM

Bloomberg News reports about the governments restrictions on emissions. (Political Capital)

More Job Losses = Greater Foreclosures

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 25th, 2009, 8:45AM

“We’re about to have a big problem. Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.”

-Morris A. Davis, a real estate expert at the University of Wisconsin.

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This is a theme I have been hammering on for some time: As more people lose their jobs, we will see increasing foreclosures, adding further stress to banks’ already ugly balance sheets.

As the  New York Times notes, the number of prime mortgages that were “delinquent at least 90 days, were in foreclosure or had deteriorated to the point that the lender took possession of the home” jumped enormously as job losses accelerated. Over the period when BLS was reporting 500k plus job losses a month, from November’08 to February ’09,  the numbers of distressed properties “increased more than 473,000, exceeding 1.5 million.” Total loan value = more than $224 billion. (Sources: The Times, First American CoreLogic).

Thus, even if the recession ended tomorrow, the US will still have another 500k – one million foreclosures. And if the recession continues for another 6 months to a year, well, you do the math. (Hint: About 2 – 3 X as many)

Excerpt:

“In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories.

With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy. . .

Economists refer to the current surge of foreclosures as the third wave, distinct from the initial spike when speculators gave up property because of plunging real estate prices, and the secondary shock, when borrowers’ introductory interest rates expired and were reset higher.”

Note that these foreclosures are not the exotic no money down I/O ARMs from the early phase of the housing collapse. Rather, these are “modest borrowers whose loans fit their income.”

A few last data points to consider (as of February 2009):

•  Foreclosure rates among prime borrowers have been growing fastest in states with higher unemployment.

• Economy.com expects mortgage defaults in 2009 caused by unemployment to double, from 29% in 2008 to 60% in 2009;

• Prime mortgages that are distressed (90 days delinquent, foreclosure, REO) are greater than 1.5 million;

• Alt-A loans — those given to people with slightly tainted credit — rose to 836,000.

• Subprime mortgages that were “distressed” reached 1.65 million;

• From February 2008 to Feb 2009, total dollar value of distressed mortgages increased 60% in dollar terms;

• More than four million loans worth $717 billion were “distressed”  in February.

All told, that’s about 4 million problem mortgages out there. My guess is half go into foreclosure. So far, the Obama admin aid to homeowners have seen less than 55,000 mortgages modified.

What this means, for those of you still paying attention, is that we will see lower RE prices, more bank stress, a lot more distressed sales, and no normalization of RE markets for some time.

The best you can hope for is some “stabilization” — if you consider 60% or more of all existing home sales (and many new home sales)  to be distressed sales, foreclosures or bank owned properties — as “stable.”

I got your real estate bottom right here . . .

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click for larger graphic

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Source:

Job Losses Push Safer Mortgages to Foreclosure

PETER S. GOODMAN and JACK HEALY

NYT May 24, 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/business/economy/25foreclose.html

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iPhone Art

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 25th, 2009, 7:45AM

This month’s New Yorker cover, “painted” on an iPhone:

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via NYT

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Source:
New Yorker Cover Art, Painted With an iPhone  
STEPHANIE CLIFFORD
NYT, May 24, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/business/media/25yorker.html

World’s Best Currency? South African Rand

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 25th, 2009, 6:52AM

Surprising story buried deep on Bloomberg: The world’s strongest currency is the South African Rand:

South Africa’s rand, the world’s best-performing major currency this year, may rally another 4 percent if it breaks through 8.23 per dollar and stays there, based on technical analysis by Barclays Plc-owned Absa Capital.

Candlestick charting shows the rand closed stronger than its opening levels everyday last week, suggesting it’s “fighting” to appreciate further, said Judy Padayachee, a technical analyst at Johannesburg-based Absa. Even so, it has yet to remain stronger than the so-called “resistance” level of 8.23 per dollar, according to Padayachee.

Go figure . . .

Nice looking bill, though:

rand

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Source:
Rand, World’s Best Currency, May Gain 4%: Technical Analysis
Garth Theunissen
Bloomberg, May 25, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aFyPvht9_PEU

Words from the (investment wise) May 24, 2009

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By Prieur du Plessis - May 24th, 2009, 2:18PM

Stock markets kicked off the last week on a high note, but then the US parted ways with other markets as the remaining four days went downhill for American stocks. In contrast, global markets in general had only one down day on Thursday.

In addition to non-US equities, risky assets such as commodities, oil, gold, silver and platinum, and high-yielding currencies performed strongly amid fresh signs of “less bad” economic and financial conditions. However, safe-haven trades such as the US dollar and government bonds got whacked, especially following Standard & Poor’s decision on Thursday to mark down its medium-term outlook for the UK’s AAA credit rating from “stable” to “negative”. This raised concerns that the US may face a similar fate.

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Source: New York Post, May 23, 2009.

As the implications of surging government debt levels move to center stage, the US Debt Clock makes for sobering reading. Click here or on the image below for the live version.

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Source: US Debt Clock, May 23, 2009.

David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch’s former chief North American economist, who has just commenced duty with buy-side firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates, commented as follows: “While the UK government debt-to-GDP ratio is around 40%, the rating agencies are looking at 100% in coming years. The US government debt/GDP ratio right now is near 65%, but clearly heading higher. It seems as though 100%+ is the trigger point for downgrades …

“So the view out there that the US is about to receive a credit downgrade despite the dramatic expansion of the government balance sheet is a little premature. For now, it makes for nice cocktail conversation but as super-sized as the deficit is (13% of GDP), there is enough room in the debt ratio that the US would likely have to run three more years of this sort of fiscal policy to be seen as a candidate for a downgrade.”

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below.

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Source: StockCharts.com

Following the previous week’s bruising, the MSCI World Index last week gained 2.2% (YTD +2.3%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5.4% (YTD +31.6%).

Similarly, the major US indices reversed course, but in a much more subdued fashion, as seen from the fairly flat movements of the major indices: S&P 500 Index (+0.5%, YTD -1.8%), Dow Jones Industrial Index (+0.1%, YTD -5.7%), Nasdaq Composite Index (+0.7%, YTD +7.3%) and Russell 2000 Index (+0.4%, YTD -4.4%).

The Nasdaq remains the only major US index still in the black for the year to date, finding itself in the company of the majority of emerging and mature markets.

Read the rest of this entry »

Transportation Infrastructure Projects

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 24th, 2009, 1:30PM

Interesting interactive graphic by AP via Yahoo, showing the economic stimulus plan as applied to Transportation projects around the country, broken down by state and county:

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click for interactive map

econ-stim-map

AP via Yahoo

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US Dollar Redesign Project

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 24th, 2009, 12:30PM

The dollar may be going to hell, but that doesn’t mean it can’t look good doing so. Hence, the Dollar ReDe$ign Project, by Richard Smith.

I found the coolest versions via the Ministry of Type:

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us-note-design-ideas-1

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via kottke

Mythology of Bulls and Bears

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By Barry Ritholtz - May 24th, 2009, 11:15AM

As the bulls gain force, investors must avoid getting trampled in a stampede. Barron’s Steven Sears comments.

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