Comments on: PHSI Gains 1.1%

By: Konjunkturzyklus, zum dritten: Licht am Ende des Tunnels • Börsennotizbuch

Wed, 06 May 2009 09:02:11 +0000

[...] Und am Immobilienmarkt gibt es endlich was Positives zu berichten. Und zwar nicht die unhaltbaren Zahlen wie vor ein paar Monaten, sondern “richtige” Fortschritte zum Vorjahreszeitraum (auch von “bearish”-en Barry Ritholtz bestätigt). [...]

By: Mark E Hoffer

Mark E Hoffer — Tue, 05 May 2009 19:04:57 +0000

mdave,

remember, not only housing prices, in the ‘housing market’, are falling..

see if there isn’t a place like this: http://www.millershomesurplus.com/

near you, also, the classifieds, and other ‘secondary markets’ are filled with similiar things, at a fraction of retail..

By: mdave

mdave — Tue, 05 May 2009 14:19:18 +0000

Here what I see as a first time home buyer. (just closed last week) Barry has blogged about the owning vs renting curve and I believe that they are close enough where people are starting to buy again. Our mortage is less than our separate rent combined. The $8000 tax credit tipped us to buy.

We did find a foreclosure but when the housing market was over priced there was no way we could afford a house. Now we have the house and make trips to our local home supply store like 3 times a week.

I think that the inventory of bad assets need to be bought up before it will drive demand for new. Then prices will rebound. We paid $179,000 for a house that sold for $320,000 two years ago. Three more on our block just sold for the same. When those are gone it will be game on again for the market. Funny thing is that there is several new condos going in the area which are smaller but priced compareable to what we just paid. The builders have adjusted to the new market.

This is for Nashville does anybody see the same in other cities?

By: Mark E Hoffer

Mark E Hoffer — Mon, 04 May 2009 19:36:00 +0000

dps,

I’d lean toward more Land, less House..

also, investigate the Environmental background of the areas you’re serious about–sometimes old mining areas have destroyed the ground water, for ex.–and the Realtor isn’t the source for the info (:

“thus ripe for the pickings of a retiree with cash (or a salable house with decent equity). Many of these out-of-city locations have property tax advantages that are outstanding.”

also, plan for higher Taxes, and higher cost of Energy inputs..

but, with that, totally, there are RE deals that are very attractive..

By: dps

dps — Mon, 04 May 2009 18:31:49 +0000

Wasn’t it just a day or so ago that a topic was of how the thirty percent of homes with no mortgages were skewing some data? Could we take that a step further and assume that those with no mortgage, or a very small one, are mostly populated by baby boomers nearing retirement?
Being of that category I can say that in my circle of friends we are all now looking at retirement homes in some areas of the RE bust. Although house prices where we live have fallen maybe twenty or at most thirty percent, we can trade “down” to more house (or at least more land) at a cheaper prices, in areas of extreme speculation, and have cash to spare.
The second houses many speculated on and that are now in foreclosure are often in desirable “vacation” areas of the country – just a little too far from the city jobs for a commuter. Many have vibrant communities (but few professional jobs) and are thus ripe for the pickings of a retiree with cash (or a salable house with decent equity). Many of these out-of-city locations have property tax advantages that are outstanding.

By: Mark E Hoffer

Mark E Hoffer — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:51:03 +0000

hopeImwrong,

tight stops has to be the watchword.

the thing about fading Calls to get ‘Long’, is that the cover, buy the underlying, creates a “Buy/Write” in reverse fashion..

the Real Risk is foregoing the higher Rate-of-Return available from doing the “Buy/Write” at the drop..

and, remember, it’s a Market of Stocks..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MO

By: hopeImwrong

hopeImwrong — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:39:37 +0000

@DL – Agreed, high risk for longs and shorts here. But, I have to defer to the price action (not the economy) when it comes to what is higher risk. Longs and shorts both need tight stops.

By: franklin411

franklin411 — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:10:12 +0000

By: nemo

nemo — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:59:46 +0000

“@mannwich, what is TC?”

TC (for Twin Cities) appears as the logo on the baseball caps for the Minnesota Twins.

By: DL

DL — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:58:48 +0000

hopeImwrong @ 11:53

“For all those with an itchy trigger finger to get short here a word of caution. …Catching the cusp of a move is high risk”.

I agree. Going short here is a high-risk proposition.
But let me add that going 100% long here, at this point, is fraught with at least as much risk (if not more).