Surprisingly quiet out here — weather was gorgeous Saturday.
Our favorite restaurant was empty on Saturday night . . . and the late movie in South Hampton was also empty.
No traffic, lots of For Sale signs and For Rent signs — even this late in May.
Kinda weird, very quiet — I am trying not to draw excessive anecdotal conclusions, but . . .
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Overall household indebtedness is up from $7 trillion to almost $10 trillion since 2000. On this sum, we estimate, the American consumer has an annual interest bill of more than $500 billion; a sum, by the way, that vastly exceeds his current income growth." —Kurt Richebacher
"The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan," said a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry. The Greeks must first have a plan that satisfies the Germans which this comment states they clearly don't yet and then the Greek Parliament will vote on it this weekend. This said, whatever package gets voted on in Greece is basically an up or down vote on euro membership so we are entering another uncertain weekend for global markets. A failed vote will likely lead to a hard default which may be what...
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May 31st, 2009 at 10:49 am
The weekend following the Memorial Day holiday… hmm. Schools are still in session so it’ll be interesting to see if summer hits its stride by the end of June.. here in southern CA, we are in year round summer so it’s difficult for me to gauge.
May 31st, 2009 at 10:52 am
Although I live at the beach, personally I wouldn’t go on vacation there. Not because living at the beach takes the shine off of going to the beach for vacation, but because I figure I want to spend my vacation time seeing something I might never see again once global warming hits high gear: snow!
May 31st, 2009 at 10:55 am
Franklin
People don’t GO ON VACATION to the Hamptons…
Thay have a 2nd house that they go to on the weekends to get away from Manhattan…
May 31st, 2009 at 10:57 am
@BR
Maybe everyone decided to stay in Manhattan over the weekend in the hopes of catching a glimpse of “his royal lordship” as he and his wife were attending a Broadway play…
May 31st, 2009 at 11:06 am
BR noticed:
Surprisingly quiet out here
comment:
—————–
Now you finally see what I have been writing about. The first couple of months this year looked hopeful. Nothing looked as bad as the newsies painted it. Then, 2nd quarter, things stopped looking good. They started looking a lot like you just noticed. You are finally seeing what I see when I go out. This contradiction is painting my confusion about the market’s recent behavior and reality.
May 31st, 2009 at 11:06 am
Anyone know what play he went to see?
Suggestion: If I’m advising him, I’d try and steer him clear of going to see ‘Our American Cousin”
May 31st, 2009 at 11:14 am
There was a McGraw-Hill convention in town this weekend, all set up to eat at your favorite restaurant…they heard you were coming…and well,…..
May 31st, 2009 at 11:14 am
I said:
This contradiction is painting my confusion about the market’s recent behavior and reality.
addendum:
——————-
If people were out and about, the weekly and monthly numbers wouldn’t be getting worst at any rate, slower or not. Shifts in buying behavior support substitutions to lower priced stores, as are frequently noticed. I just purchased some shirts from land’s end for 30% off. These particular shirts NEVER go on sale and almost never go into their overstocks These were not overstocks either.
May 31st, 2009 at 11:19 am
Franklin:
How long would it take for you to reach snow from where you live if you are pedaling as fast as you can on your bicycle?
May 31st, 2009 at 11:34 am
@Franklin
Don’t fret about the snow amigo…
Maybe when your boy “Big O” gets done with his social engineering project here in the US, he can go open the vaults in Hawaii, look at the records and say “OOPS, I was wrong…Actually I’m a ‘Chinese citizen’…
Then he goes on to head up Chinese communist rule (and weans THEM off the coal plants that they’re opening by the day)…
Meanwhile…NO VACATION 4u pal…Your weekend assignment is to go out and paint your roof white…
Do you suppose “painting your roof white” has some subversive underpinnings to it? Kind of like the legend of PASSOVER? (to identify one type from another type)…
Naw, it couldn’t…I checked Google Maps and zoomed in on Al Gore’s mansion…The roof is black as can be…
May 31st, 2009 at 11:36 am
It will be interesting to see how the travel industry is faring by June 30th. There may be an onslaught of deals by then if the handwriting for a sluggish summer is on the wall.
By the way, I believe I heard on the radio our (Illinois) state legislature is rapidly working on a state tax increase from 3% to 4.5% (a tidy 50%!) And to think we have the highest sales tax in the country now too!
May 31st, 2009 at 11:42 am
Barry I can confirm your observations.
Saturday night, Memorial Day weekend, Madam Tongs probably peaked at about 30% of the usual weekend night crowd. Same for last night. There are a handful of places that are still packed (Stephen Talkhouse, for example), but most places are pretty empty.
The same goes for Manhattan this weekend, some places are still drawing crowds, most are empty and closing their kitchens early. We had to try three restaurants before 10PM before we found a place that hadn’t closed its kitchen.
I’m not surprised that Armageddon has hit the Hamptons, that was pretty easy to predict. I was expecting that Manhattan would be packed this summer on the weekends because nobody would be going to the Hamptons, and while the weekend streets are bustling, many places are empty.
Economic Darwinism is bursting the Manhattan retail and nightlife scene, a few will continue to prosper, some more will carry on, and a large swath of businesses will go under. This was also easy to predict.
May 31st, 2009 at 11:42 am
@franklin411. You’re misinformed about global warming. It implies overall increased temperature , with greater local variations (extremes). Meaning it will be colder in some places. In short there will be snow for the foreseeable future.
May 31st, 2009 at 11:58 am
BR, you finally noticed one of the massive contradictions in the current economy. Happy talk and very convincing business reporters vs empty stores, empty roads, empty store fronts, lowering real estate prices that have finally come to places not affiliated with Crazytown, and unending job losses.
Now, we just need to see linkage with the realization that high commodity prices are not a plus for a damaged economy, especially if the high prices are the direct result of speculation. Or an erratic stock market will just chase people away from it and give it the appearance of a street hustle. “Green shoots” is only a slogan intended to pacify the gullible for a while, until a new slogan replaces it soon.
Bond vigilantes may soon shut down the inflationary recovery in the works. While this will protect them, it will just make everything else worse on top of the giant new debt that we get to stick someone else with.
The world economy is degenerating into a scary place.
May 31st, 2009 at 11:59 am
cvienne:
The Obama’s went to see Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. And there was real royalty in NY this weekend in case you forgotten already.
May 31st, 2009 at 12:03 pm
@BR
My anecdotal “2 cents” from my region is as follows:
I bounce back between Howard County, MD & the eastern panhandle of West Virginia…I’m in MD this weekend cause I need to pick up a few things…
- I stopped by the Comp USA store in the large retail pantheon near my house…OOPS – Shuttered – out of business (as were about 50% of the stores in the complex)…Dick’s Sporting Goods, Target, Borders, & Old Navy were still around but not many cars…And Howard County is only about 5% unemployment…many here are government workers (soc. sec., nsa, etc. as well as a lot of high tech industry, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman)…There is a TON of military as well (Ft. Meade), & biotech (Biogen, and others)…Bottom line? still not bad on the unemployment scene but people just don’t spend money like they used to…The OVERBUILD in retail capacity is clearly evident…
More…
Do you want to know whats “packed”? Lifetime Fitness…Why? Because they have 3 outdoor swimming pools, a huge gym facility, child care, & child summer camps…All in a fairly affordable family membership…
Apparently, as a way to cut back, families just take the little ones to the POOL during the summer…Normally people might be going to the Eastern Shore this weekend (Ocean City, Rehoboth, Bethany, or even down to the OBX in North Carolina)…Not anymore…
I’m interested to see what king of effect this behavior is going to have on those “summer towns” that rely on visitors during the summer for their livelihood…
The “good news” is, there is less demand for fresh seafood…I got 3 nice lobsters on Friday for $4.99 a pound!
May 31st, 2009 at 12:07 pm
@Calvin Jones
Well I don’t suppose that “O” took the opportunity to go over to Governors Island to tell Prince Harry that his grandmother ACTUALLY DOES have an invitation to the D-Day ceremony next week on Normandy Beach…?
Apparently her invitation got lost in the mail…Or maybe “O” just tried to TWITTER it and the system was down…
May 31st, 2009 at 12:15 pm
What does real royalty look like?
King Arthur?
Or Prince Charles….?
They are anachronisms kept in the petting zoo for the children to see…
May 31st, 2009 at 12:17 pm
two words: “french open.”
May 31st, 2009 at 12:21 pm
If only “The Hamptons” had a nice50 story office building with a nice spacious ledge, I think that more financial management types would feel more comfortable taking that “well deserved” vacation.
May 31st, 2009 at 12:21 pm
@Bruce in TN
If you hold on for a bit my friend you’ll probably get a chance to see what royalty looks like…
Since our social democracy supported by capitalism is being demolished it is evident that we will soon disintegrate into ana*chy…
…From those ashes will ride serfdom & fifedom
…therefore, we’ll get to see the new royalty that arises from that…
There already seem to be those jockeying for position…
May 31st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
since we’re all tweeting postcards … cloudy and cool here in west sonoma county. wife shopping, will meet her at our favorite bistro for brunch and a binge on the new york times. business here not visibly slow, traffic as congested as usual; a few more commercial rentals but no ghost town streets by any stretch. no fabulous discounts, no screeching retail sales, no bread lines. only the migrant day labor corner seems to be much slacker than last year.
May 31st, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Barry, a few observations from the other coast. I tend to see the bearish side of things but have to admit that activity seems to have picked up a bit here in La Jolla. Local restaurants that were empty on weekend nights a couple months ago are now 70-80% full. I went to the mall yesterday and the parking lot was full and there were lines at the registers. Stores are still discounting heavily, but it seems to be bringing out the buyers.
On the other hand, one trend I’m noticing is realtors have gotten much more aggressive in advertising open houses and there are LOTS of them every weekend. As you know, this is a very upscale area where the average house sells for around 2 million. In the past people have been very low-key about the fact that their house is for sale–no yard signs, no trail of signs directing you to an open house, etc. That’s changed now. Signs are everywhere and realtors are happy to show you around multi-million dollar houses without trying to “qualify” you on the way in. They’re happy if anyone shows any interest at all.
My theory is that the low end has been “saved” somewhat by being able to refinance at ultra low interest rates for qualifying loans. Jumbo loans never came down so the high end of the market is stuck and still adjusting downward.
May 31st, 2009 at 12:32 pm
@drollere
I’m not trying to argue with what YOUR experience is…Goodness knows I’m not there to witness it…
Perhaps at least “some” of the difference of what you describe is based on one simple notion…
The RETAIL operations I described are exactly that…RETAIL operations in a commerical expanse…they are DESTINATIONS for making a purchase…People don’t go to the Target to waltz and stroll around the parking lot, and maybe pick up a newspaper and have a latte…
So what’s more important is that the CASH REGISTERS ARE RINGING in your quaint little Sonoma village…
IT’S FREE to walk around on a Sunday afternoon (as it’s FREE to take the kids to the pool once you’ve paid your modest membership)…
So the Administration better start figuring out ways to TAX pedestrian traffic if they want REVENUES coming in for all the spending…
May 31st, 2009 at 2:48 pm
The 2006 bubble’s still in full effect if you go to Philippe’s in East Hampton… $100 a person for what would constitute mediocre takeout Chinese food in Manhattan, a 90-minute wait last night, and folks paying $500 for bottle service at the Lilly Pad next door. Ended up at Philippe’s because of a bigger group we were meeting up with. I’ll never understand why folks drive two hours out of Manhattan and then go to a place that’s less appealing than your average b-grade nightclub on 27th street.
May 31st, 2009 at 4:10 pm
I was in a really nice Sushi Bar in a new development on Friday night….at 7 pm, my family was the only party there! When we left, there was another table of people seated….the food was great….It was very, very sad. There was a time when there were no Sushi places at all in Houston…the few that existed were always JAMMED….and now on a Friday night, this place was a ghost town.
As I went outside of this new development I saw that half the places had FOR LEASE signs up….good luck leasing those puppies out.
May 31st, 2009 at 4:10 pm
This fits in with friends and family. My sister and hubbie have shared a house for past few years on the Hamptons. This year, with his pay cut in half (be demoted or lose your income, take your pick) and two kids in tow they have booked a house for a week on Cape Cod.
I am guessing that if you are trying to sell and/or waiting to be foreclosed on you do not want to be responsible for giving back lots of money from renters (oops, sorry your vacation was ruined by finding a sheriff’s notice and deadbolt on the front door) or having to deal with their complaints about having realtors bring potential buyers through the place at all hours.
May 31st, 2009 at 4:51 pm
> My theory is that the low end has been “saved” somewhat by being able to refinance at ultra
> low interest rates for qualifying loans.
They may now be over as we speak (at least for the time and possibly well into the future), we just have to watch where the bond markets go from here. They be at (or have gone past) an inflection point.
I confess that I did sort of enjoy the article in the nytimes (and this was some time ago) about the rate of yacht repossessions in Long Island?, the Hamptons?, whatever soaring. Schadenfreude.
Is Tom Wolfe still writing?
May 31st, 2009 at 5:19 pm
@Andy T (4:10)
Don’t worry…
The trading desks at GS & MS are bidding up the price of oil using the TARP money they got…
Soon oil will be back up to $150 a barrel again and times in downtown Houston will be rocking & rolling…
May 31st, 2009 at 8:53 pm
in my semi-large chunk of the left coast i’m noticing a gradual exponential ramping in the # of homeless folks out and about as well as a concurrent increase in “For Lease” signs (Commercial RE).
The wife Teaches at 3 colleges….Her hours are getting cut way back….
Share a quote on Deflation/Inflation debate? From Sushihorn at TF…
“It the commodity is financialized – i.e. it can be bought and sold as a standardized paper contract in a liquid market, it seems to be rising. If it cannot but instead you must commit to taking delivery some time out or it cannot be stored for future delivery at all, it is falling. That difference tells me that price rises are largely or maybe entirely due to financial speculation, not rising demand, nor any real increase in L-T inflation fears. If inflation expectations were strongly embedded, L-T contracts would also reflect rising price expectations and they do not.
The financial tail is wagging the economic dog here due to provision of mass liquidity by the Fed and Treasury. Congress is unlikely to authorize more at this point and then folks are going to discover the difference between liquidity and demand.”
May 31st, 2009 at 9:12 pm
BR…Quiet in the Hamptons? As Seinfeld might say, “that’s a shame”. Must make driving for Lizzie Grubman a little easier.
May 31st, 2009 at 9:16 pm
@vaughn
That is as good an explanation of the latest run-up I have heard. The questions as always is how long will it continue. I guess all that money that is left from the shadow banking system has to pump something up.
May 31st, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Boating is most definitely down big. I usually see lots of boats at this time on the Hudson near Tarrytown and Croton point. Saw more people hanging on their boats in the marina then out in the water.
May 31st, 2009 at 11:00 pm
HamptonsSchmamptons….all that silicon and douchebaggery concentrated on one peninsula…..puke.
Big line at McDonalds drivethru this morning….I went inside to get my coffee.
Laugh it up….Starbucks is DEAD MEAT.
Boat traffic down at Lake Ozark is definitely down….but not as much as you might expect. Gas on the pier is under $3/gal…. way down from where it was last year.
A guy I work with pulled out $30K from his 401K last week and bought a rehabbed 3br/2ba house for his sister and her kids.
I put up a couple old AR frankenrifles in the local trader and my phone won’t stop ringing. I wish I had about 30 more to sell.
Anyone know anything about raising meat rabbits??
June 1st, 2009 at 12:30 am
The Apple stores in Pasadena and Glendale were both busy. Fatty’s restaurant in Eagle Rock had a waiting line. Some people in Los Angeles area are still going to the good stores/restaurants.
June 1st, 2009 at 8:09 am
Hamptons, way 2 cold 2 venture out there….. what happen to 90 degree Memorial day weekends???
Sanibel was quiet…
Memorial day was a week early …screwed everybody up!
June 1st, 2009 at 8:26 am
And on Cape Cod –
Many with houses for rent have “open weeks”. Higher-end B & Bs suffering big time. People are shopping down – mid and low end accommodations will benefit. More day trippers. More people staying a few days instead of one or two weeks. Anecdotal: The local boatyard laid off entire workforce of 8 a few months ago from lack of work. Hired a couple back recently. Local plumbing company had 22 employees – down to 8. Still heavy traffic on Route 6, though, but gas prices inching up.
June 14th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
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