Listen to my words, this is a good exit for your investments… The US has made a vicious top when Dow was at 14k, now it probably will take at least a decade to go back there.

Maybe emerging markets could climb back to their previous tops, but not US equities.

I don’t wanna hear anyone cry when S&P500 hits 530.

Yeah I see it, I mentioned in another thread I may need to change my call on that. I’m officialy just watching gold now from the sidelines, I have no capital allocated there. I’ll look again at the close.

Gold is North of your U$D 920 target, as we speak..

Silver North of U$D 14..

If you stop thinking about deflation in terms of people spending less as a result of moving to a smaller home or losing a job and you start thinking of CREDIT deflation you will see.

it’s already here.

I’d say I’m in agreement with you regarding deflation (even though I own about 10% gold and have owned that since 2004 at $375)…I never sold at the TOP and frankly wasn’t looking to sell…I’m not trying to TRADE gold…In fact, I think it’s very likely that it will go down and test in the 750-720 range (possibly as low as 680) sometime later this year…

So I don’t own gold as either an investment OR an inflation hedge…In fact, most of what I own I actually hold the bullion (that’s why I don’t really trade it)…Maybe I belong with the ‘tinfoil’ hat crown, but my reason for holding it this way is more if there ends up being some kind of crazy event in the world which renders currencies obsolete…What if electronic payment systems shut down, or if people can’t get to their cash…I’d own something I could barter in case of calamity…

I know that in a case like that FOOD & H2O would be pantamount, but I have ample supplies of those…

All of that is off subject though…The subject is DEFLATION, and while I believe there will eventually be an INFLATION problem (cause by the difficulty in undoing the monetary policy measures that BB has put in the system), I think DEFLATION is still a real risk…

It just seems to me that since this whole fiasco began (with the burst of the housing bubble), the NEED to spend a lot has largely been wiped out…Think about it…

If you have to buy furniture, services, and energy for a 2,500 – 4,000 house (and all the littler ones behind that), that’s A LOT of goods (which need to be manufactured and supplied)…Eliminate that, and move back into condos, and the whole dynamics change (no need for lawnmower, yard service, nat gas bill is reduced, power tools, couches, wallpaper, kitchen accessories, etc.

Furthermore, the NEED TO COMPETE with the next door neighbor goes away when everyone is living smaller…

So in the end, I think that some industries will flourish just fine…A smalller living space doesn’t precluse you from having a different cellphone (perhaps you still want all the bells & whistles there)…Maybe you still want to travel on vacations…Maybe your disposable income actually goes UP if you are lucky enough to keep your job, but go ahead and let your house get foreclosed on, return to being a renter, and take the burden of a large mortgage payment off your back…

It’s a dynamic shift in attitude which I think we will see play out in consumer habits…The lack of need for some things will deflate the prices…Whereas other things may thrive…

Sheez.

The Dow Jones also moved from 8000 to 6400 non-stop almost… It was a trend, as is this one now.

Brazil and China are leading the pack, and this time these markets are much more expensive than January when Dow Jones was 9000. This is a serious red flag for you american investors. I’`d sell all my Dow position at 8500 anytime.