S&P 500 Earnings Decline: 90%
With earnings season coming to an end, I wanted to find a way to depict the severity of the financial meltdown into the context of profits.
This Stock of the Day chart does so, showing just how unprecedented the profit destruction has been:
>
>
Chart of the Day:
“While the stock market is up sharply since early March, the economy as well as corporate earnings continue to suffer. Today’s chart helps provide some perspective as to the magnitude of the current economic decline. Today’s chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.”
Via Chart of the Day
May 17th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Almost bad enough to make one think that 666 can be retested.
May 17th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Reminds me of the line from Crocadile Dundee…”Now that’s a knife!”
…Now that’s a chart.
May 17th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Its the review mirror. What you see is that we just clipped a giant pile of wreckage, but we survived. You will see a big bounce, of course nowhere near $90 anytime soon. Why do you think stocks rallied for 9 straight weeks?
May 17th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Thank goodness the Feds stepped in with the paddles!
May 17th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
maybe the P/E 10 ‘ficiandos can pull a “Goldman” and skip that part–
~~
thetanman Says:
tread carefully, my friend, there, still, be Gator in these parts..
May 17th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
“better than expected….”
May 17th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
But the vast majority of the decline is probably Financials.
What does the data look like excluding Financials?
May 17th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
stocks rallied for 9 weeks because it was nearly a national security issue had they not. this was orchestrated by the gov and the banks in order for banks to raise private capital. doesn’t anyone find it funny that the ammount of TARP remaining was almost identical to what the stress test showed banks need? this is another travesty since our whole financial system is broken and insolvent. . gov understands that for some reason the stock market is a barometer to the world and for some sick reason invokes confidence in the braindead. i would not rule out however that some monkey business went on with the secondaries of banks and REIT’s. seriously who is dumb enough to put capital into these cesspools. i’ll bet this was more secret shovelling in of capital by our corrupt gov. s+p 450 in time
May 17th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Harold – way to optimistic, doesn’t that imply a PE of 65 or so?
May 17th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
This is the proof that this has been a sucker’s rally!!!!!
May 17th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Mark,
Thanks for the advice. Just looking at the Q’s longterm chart we have monster resistance at 40. About 20% from here. Just because earnings have bottomed (or soon will) that does not guarantee that stocks, or anything else, will go up. And that’s if we don’t have anymore major gators. We may have already priced in as good as it gets, as the economy transitions from what it was.
May 17th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Harold:
If I was the Gov, i would do the same. (this world is not about justice, its about continuity…with some collateral damage)
If confidence is the name of the game, who the fuck cares for a couple of trillion more in printing and inflation..
yes stock market is the indicator to the general population about their future economics…hence it has to go up otherwise consumption/capex will fall so much that we will be very close to becoming an agrarian economy again.
here is a simplistic flow….
A.
*stock market is pumped up
*government spending helps hiring
B.
population/business feel great they start spending(whatever little they have)
C.
earnings start to improve.
there you have it.
May 17th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I guess I would ask just which numbers are inflation-adjusted. Is that aggregate US$7 per share figure the current nominal value or an inflation adjusted number? Yeah, I know it sounds pretty stupid, but the chart isn’t clear what the base year is.
May 17th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Y’all really should check out the ZH post – this is bigger than what Helicopter Ben can control – attempted confidence game, yes, for now, but not the end game.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/exuberance-glut-or-dollar-euro-short.html
May 17th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
The ZH post zeroes in on the main issue: debt. Loans, securitized debt and CDS. A huge portion of the earnings, especially in financials (but who isn’t in finance these days?), came from the leverage provided by securitization and CDS “hedges” (LOL!). The only thing that kept this mountain of debt from collapsing was the addition of more debt. This ain’t happening anymore — though Bubbles is trying to make it happen. Sorry Ben, but “it” WILL happen here.
It’s impossible to know whether the market will make much further lows (e.g. fair value c.300), but it may trade flat for years.
May 17th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
clawback – Doesn’t that require a tripling of earnings from the present condition?
May 17th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Wes,
It’s gratifying to me to know that in some people’s world I am a wild-eyed optimist. I suspect the S&P will have net positive earnings for 2010. I’m also thinking of fair value in terms of earnings over the long term. (I don’t think things will be bad forever, just longer than us.gov would have us believe.)
May 17th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
clawback – You and F411?
May 17th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
me and F411 what?
May 17th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
wild-eyed optimists
May 17th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Nice. I should also add, however, that this optimistic scenario depends on Bubbles not blowing us.gov to smithereens. Someone (maybe it was Steve Barry) pointed out last night that the Fed is becoming the locus for even more “systemic risk” than existed before last September. It also depends on Obama and the Congress coming to their senses before it’s too late. Any fool can see that at the rate we’re spending we can’t pay off our Treasury debt (ever) without either massive tax increases (bad for growth) or inflation/devaluation, although we may be able to service it for a long, long time.
For the record, I’m mostly on the sidelines right now as far as equities. Mostly in cash and I am very happy to own some physical gold and silver. (Yes, the pantry is WELL STOCKED, too.)
May 17th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
key word – “physical”, the miners (equities) are going to get clobbered again.
Did you hear about John Paulson’s 26 billion dollar fund’s recent investments – seemed like ~10% physical, ~10% miners.
May 17th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
But Cramer says the bottom is in. I, for one, believe him. Um, no……..
May 17th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Mannie – are you into the bike?
May 17th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Yes, had heard about Paulson (Hank’s cousin?). But why? I imagine the purchase is part of a more complicated trade. It just doesn’t make sense to go long in gold in such a big way right now (IMHO). Unless he IS Hank’s cousin, and knows something the rest of us don’t…
May 17th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
If I didn’t know the truth I’d almost think that chart was a sick joke
May 17th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
@Wes: I ride casually here in Minny (great parks and bike trails here all over the place) but am not super competitive about it like some folks I know (e.g. my brothers’ in law). I also ride on the stationary bike at the gym to stay in shape and try to stay healthy. That’s something I have some control over anyway.
May 17th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
@MannW, I’m way into it – roadie. You posted casually once that you were going for a (long) ride, so I have been wondering about your level of interest. Bottom line is to stay in shape for me as well.
May 17th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I’d like to see S&P 500 *revenue* – that would be more telling. A lot of the recent “profit” was never that. It was just accounting magic and “creative” management. No wonder it has to balance out.
May 17th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
@Wes: I’m mostly a roadie as well (although I like to stay on the bike trails if they’re decent and not crowded but sometimes that gets boring). Am thinking about riding with my bro-in-laws on an organized 100 mile+ ride in CO from Fort Collins into the mountains a bit in early June. Not sure I’m in the proper shape for it though. Not enough hills here in Minny to appropriately train and get used to the altitude, and I don’t know if I can keep up with those guys. They’re pretty intense about it and I don’t want to hold them back and be the weak link.
May 17th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Mannwich @ 1:54
I used to be a seven-day-a-week bike rider. Mostly back in my San Diego days… lots of great hills there too, of course.
May 17th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
clawback – I guess when you make all that money buying CDS on the mortgage securities that blew up last year and the subsequent fallout, andyou see that mortagage securities are going to continue to blow up over the next several years, you need to stash the cash is something real. I guess JohnPaulson sees GD II in his headlights.
May 17th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Delilah – why did you stop riding?
May 17th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
For all those “bottom-callers” who say that the decline in the economy has either stopped or is about to shortly, I ask you — exactly what were the forces that drove this economy lower?
Was it not the range fire of mortgage foreclosures dramatically undercutting home prices with a ginormous surplus of excess housing? That in turn undermined the banksters, which were heavily leveraged, just as were the broker-dealers that preceded them, and imploded their balance sheets. With the ensuing calamity in the financial industry, lending dried up, and consumer borrowing dried up even faster. Now we have all manner of non-banking corporations struggling to breathe, largely due to lack of debt liquidity, and also due to lack of sales, and we have seen about 600,000 jobs per month snuffed out, with no signs of slackening as the auto workers are now or will be Real Soon Now hitting the bricks.
And if we can agree that these were the things that are killing this economy, exactly when do you expect them to reverse, and what signs will there be of this reversal of fortunes? Will we be seeing profits perk up? A flood of people (prolly the newly homeless) buying houses? If so, what will they be using for their 20% down payments?
Finally, if an economy crumples to a fraction of its former self, then stays flat on the mat for several months/years before perking up a bit, when does the “recovery” begin? when it stops going down, or when it begins to advance? (mind you, I don’t think for a second that we have reached the bottom of this decline, I’m just trying to humor those whistling past the graveyard that do)
May 17th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@techy 12:34
So, when the Ponzi scheme is exposed you would willing try to continue to con the American people? Interesting to hear a validation of the Paulson/Giethner/Bernanke/etc. line of thinking. As to the stock market being “the indicator to the general population about their future economics,” I disagree. Most of the “investor class” had equities hoisted on them through the wonder of defined contribution plans. A cynical mind would say that defined contribution plans were another manifestation of the greatest Ponzi scheme. Although we’ve hit an historical high water mark for the percentage of Americans who own equities, most people are more concerned about whats in the pockets/purses, their bank balances and the value of their home. Why do you think there was less angst during the equity decline of 2001 versus the housing bubble and equity decline of 2008? We can live well during a crappy stock market (please refer,again, to 2001-2002 or 1992-1994), but we cannot live well with a crappy economy and the lack of sound money.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
This is really just a reflection of the leverage in the system. The more leverage a company employs, the higher the sensitivity to changes in demand.
Once again, this shows the intrinsic danger in the Federal government’s policies of interest rate manipulation and interest expense tax deductions create by shifting the marginal cost of capital curve in favor of debt. It only makes sense if they are willing to live with the volatility (the bailouts say this isn’t the case).
May 17th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
clawback – I got it – from The Timesonline – “Greenspan is also an adviser to Paulson & Co, a hedge-fund group that has made billions from the collapse in American housing.” Greenspan is advising Paulson to buy gold.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
@Wes/clawback/HH
Re: clawback’s comparative optimism
I often have the same feeling that, as bad as I think it looks, there are those who foresee much worse. Who thinks Berkshire Hathaway is going to have to pay up on the S&P swaps in 9 to 10 years? Also, who was the counterparty to these trades? We may look back 20 years hence and the man, who was celebrated by the MSM as the greatest investor of all time, will have been taken for a ride by someone else.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Wes,
Natch — profiting from the collapse, then buying gold. What will the feverish mind of Alex Jones make of this? (It’s the Illuminati! They did it all on purpose!!)
Too funny.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Cursive,
I had forgotten about those swaps. What were the numbers and the terms? Could be very interesting. And to think that I had looked into buying some Berkshire shares in November/December…
May 17th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
I don’t get this Buffet deal. Did he not make the famous quote the “derivatives are weapons of financial mass destruction” or something to that effect. Then he goes out and places the bets anyway. What’s up with that?
May 17th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
@ clawback 3:39
Maximum Exposure on Equity Puts: $37.1 Billion …
… But only if the indices on which the contracts are written fall to zero at the expiration of the option! Berkshire must pay the counter-party if the index levels at the date of expiration are lower than the index levels at the inception of the contracts. Since all of the contracts were written at much higher market levels, this means that all of the options are “in the money” for the counter-parties, but they cannot exercise until expiration due to the European style feature of the contracts. The only way Berkshire can lose the full notional value of the contracts is for the indices to fall to zero. Otherwise, the losses will be far lower. If the indices only rise back to the level on the date when the options were written, Berkshire would have no liability whatsoever.
http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=243
Including bond and muni exposure:
The maximum loss on those bets was $63.4 billion as of Dec. 31, a figure that Berkshire would pay only if the markets fell to zero and all the states and municipalities failed to pay. Berkshire said liabilities on those positions were about $14 billion as of Dec. 31.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAcPe1GpTQ9U&refer=home
On second thought, I’m not sure how smart the counterparty was, given that BH probably doesn’t pay up if it goes belly up.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Cursive – OK I get you. They payoff is in ~10 years and someone wants the other side of the bet – so, we are not alone – must be Nassim Taleb and Nouriel Roubini teaming up. I guess 10 years of fees mitigate the risks for the Oracle.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
@ Wes 3:46
Do as I say, not as I do. Also, see your post at 3:26 for more evidence of this type of behavior. Sometimes people talk their own book, sometimes they distract you with one hand while the other is in your pocket. In either event, we are all rubes for the charlatans, carpet baggers and river boat gamblers of the world.
May 17th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
I’m with you Cursive. And my mind is not even deviant, just dryly humorous.
Greenspan is also advisor to Pimco, and “he has already made billions for us” Bill Gross
May 17th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I guess this is a new normal for earnings but one heck of a market to trade!
May 17th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Earnings have not declined 90% – what has happened is that the illusion of profit has been subjected to the harsh light of reality and phantom profits have evaporated like morning mist under the noonday sun.
May 17th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
WM – poetry, I love it.
May 17th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
what’s to be made of:
http://news.google.com/news/more?um=1&ned=us&cf=all&ncl=dQ1_WDD-iZdzPrMVVPoePL1cd0-gM
the US MSM seems pretty quiet about it..
and, this, in general:
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Logan+Act
May 17th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I did not find my initation in the mail.
clawback @3:36 turned me on to this parnoid guy’s website….
http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-wants-global-department-of-health-global-treasury/
May 17th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Wes,
from your link above, this: “Veteran investigative journalist Jim Tucker has uncovered Bilderberg’s 2009 agenda, which includes the plan for a global department of health, a global treasury and a shortened depression rather than a longer economic downturn.
Appearing on The Alex Jones Show, Tucker said that former Swedish Prime Minister and regular Bilderberg attendee Carl Bildt, “Made a speech advocating turning the World Health Organization into a world department of health, advocating turning the IMF into a world department of treasury, both of course under the auspices of the United Nations.”
Tucker noted that such moves would constitute giant steps toward the world government that Bilderberg has set about to achieve but has been frustrated in finalizing over the past 10 years.
Tucker said that Bilderberg are keen on stressing the problems caused by the economic crisis, as well as the threat of a disease pandemic, as a means of justifying centralization of power.
According to Tucker, Bildt also discussed global warming in the context of a global tax on carbon emissions, which has long been a part of Bilderberg’s agenda…”
seemed pretty interesting.
also, about that Jim Tucker, I found: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Jim+Tucker+Bilderberg
seems he’s been reporting about it for ~25+ years..
see: “…Jim Tucker’s Bilderberg Diary. In this 280-page book I recount the adventures I have had tracking down Bilderberg and crashing their party every year (almost) for the past 25 years.
I’ve also included dozens of exclusive photos snapped by me and my colleagues of the meetings and which few, if any, other Americans besides the readers of this paper and The Spotlight have ever seen. I think you’ll especially like the photo with me and Maggie Thatcher, who agreed to a private meeting with me after she realized Bilderberg was more than, ‘tea and crumpet’ party. She came out publicly against Bilderberg after that and was the victim of a Bilderberg campaign to have her defeated in her re-election bid as Britain’s prime minster…”
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/secret_global_meeting.html
if this guy was making this up, one would think he’d have, already, been on /Someone’s/ Book of the Month List, by now, no?
this, seems to work, too: ht tp://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Thatcher+on+Bilderberg
May 17th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
another Creature from Jeckyl Island – it is not about money, it is about power
May 17th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Wes,
seems like this topic is w/in the web, too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfdwa4YED-k
–Dr. Bill Wattenburg on Global Warming Hypocrites
this: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=creature+from+jeckyll+island was a good book, a serious look at the Delta between what we think we know, and what is..
might bew helpful if more people knew about it/read into it..
May 17th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
the temperature goes up, the temperature goes down
the market goes up, the market goes down
traders go long, traders go short
carbon emmissions go up, err carbon emmision don’t go down, hmm….
not to worry, peak oil – problem solved
May 17th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
“World Government” is already here. Corporate rule has already upsurded governments, now is the time for their liquidation. The true origins behind the United States. A country that never was.
May 17th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Mark, the “Logan act” was nothing more than the illumanti homeland, the United States protecting itself from “old world” influences during its “growth” period as it attempted to setup shop. Once people understand how the US was formed, people like Alex Jones look like dumb losers used and abused.
Nothing more, nothing less. It has long been defunct.
May 17th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
And why does the Y-axis not start at zero?? This distorts/exaggerates the plunge. No doubt it supports the bear case so prevalent on this board. Bunch of perma-bears, thee.
If you re-calibrate the graph, ’tis merely a flesh wound.
May 17th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Iiwii,
w/this: “The Logan Act is a United States federal law that forbids unauthorized citizens from negotiating with foreign governments.”
how do you get: “the “Logan act” was nothing more than the illumanti homeland”?
and, with: ” Once people understand how the US was formed…” would you have any further links?
this: “.. people like Alex Jones look like dumb losers used and abused.” though, wouldn’t surprise me, in the least..
~~
wunsa-,
spill, w/ the “Bull”-case..I like learning things
May 17th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Wconman – “flesh wound” excellent
May 17th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
This goes back to some earlier posts, but Schiff had a good one, as usual –
“The bottom line is that Greenspan fathered the housing bubble and now he refuses to acknowledge kinship of his wayward child. His denial of responsibility is an act of stunning bravado, and is a testament to his ability to turn even the simplest of situations into an impenetrable tangle of theories and statistics. The private sector jokers who now hold top dishonors in our pack of economic villains are easily trumped by the Maestro. The fact that Greenspan still has any credibility shows just how little understanding the general public, including Wall Street and the media, actually have about this crisis. ”
Copyright © 2009 Peter Schiff
He is the Marueen Dowd of economics and finance
May 17th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Wes,
given this: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/thejoshuablog/2009/05/ny-times-maureen-dowd-plagiari.php
what do you mean about Schiff?
May 17th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Mark,
This is an important subject to me. I had some issues just this past week that were very similar. I prepared a report and “someone” edited it and sent in to “document control”. Pissed me off big time and led to a bit of a hullabaloo.
OK, after having that carthasis, ctrl-alt-del.
I simply meant that Peter has a clever and biting style of analysis/writing – similar to Maureen Dowd. Not related to the subject matter, simply the similarity of their witty ways.
Wes
May 17th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
Mark,
Skull and Bones, Bilderberg, Bohemian Grove, Freemasonry, NSA.
Jack Welch was a corporate giant 8 years ago.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2001/10/01/011001crbo_books1?currentPage=all
Now his legacy is shit and being exposed as yet another crooked hedge fund fronting as something else. If anybody would have been tapped to be in on the Big Conversations, it’s Neutron Jack/Jack the Zipper. He could have told them how to apply Six Sigma Black Belt (TM) principles to their epic power grab.
I believe fervently in the fundamental incompetence and ridiculousness of each and every human being alive or dead. So some Dutch prince 50 years ago had visions of humans in spaceman jumpsuits riding hovercraft bubble cars under the rulership of a benevolent New World Order. BFD. Man plans, God laughs.
The Congress of Vienna, 1814-15. First, the aristocrats all lucked out at Waterloo, big time. Would have put a quick end to their map-drawing.
FF>> a century later and things got a bit away from our friends the aristocrats. Big War, bolsheviks, the seeds of fascism. Events way bigger and more complex than those inbred schmucks in Vienna could ever control.
Human nature hasn’t changed in 200 years, so no worries. Power-seeking personalities know how to jockey for position and manipulate to a limited extent. But it always all comes out in the wash.
May 17th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
@Winston: Totally agree. The Jack Welch-ian earnings fraud game is now being exposed but we won’t hear any of this talk from anyone in the mainstream because it would mean our whole market system is arguably a fraud.
May 17th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Here’s the end of John Cassidy’s 2001 New Yorker article on Jack Welch:
G.E. Capital is now one of the world’s largest financial institutions, with almost four hundred billion dollars in assets, and it already accounts for about half G.E.’s revenues. It can’t get much larger or Wall Street will start valuing G.E. as a bank, and that would have devastating repercussions for the company’s shareholders, since banks trade at relatively low earnings multiples. If G.E. were to be valued like Citigroup, the biggest American bank, its stock price would be cut roughly in half. To make matters worse, some of G.E.’s older businesses, such as aircraft engines and major appliances, are suffering from the economic downturn. In the past year, G.E.’s stock has fallen from almost sixty dollars a share to below thirty-five. Welch reshaped G.E., and he delighted Wall Street, but the epilogue to the Jack Welch story has yet to be written. ♦
May 17th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
@Transor: It’s being written right now whether old raspy-voiced Jack likes it or not.
May 17th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Transor Z @10:59
I agree. There’s enough crime, fraud and incompetence in the clear broad light of day. No need to imagine it’s “the Illuminati” or “the New World Order” behind it all. (Or Goldman Sachs.)
May 17th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Transor,
what does Neutron Jack have to do w/ “Skull and Bones, Bilderberg, Bohemian Grove, Freemasonry, NSA.”
and, btw, what does NSA stand for?
~~
Wes,
re: ’someone’, just make a note of it, and try let it happen, again..
though, re: Schiff, from what I understand, he’s, largely, been Correct, from his own study.
Dowd, past the point of ’style’, has, largely, been more than willing to regurgitate ‘the Daily Memo’, right, wrong, or indifferent..
she gives an apt picture of ‘Presstitute’..
May 17th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
Wes,
I missed a ‘not to’ between “try” & “let”
May 18th, 2009 at 12:05 am
The hits just keep on coming. GM”s Wagoner still on the payroll and Treasury mulling over whether to pay him his $20MM severance package. Wonderful.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/17/AR2009051702268.html?hpid=topnews
May 18th, 2009 at 12:08 am
Back to the Chart: Absolutely deadly.
Don’t suppose this puppy will show up in the COMMON media.
The phrase of the era: STILL BEAT EXPECTATIONS.
Other than that his thread is getting ugly and dead on.
Bu the big dogs feel perfectly safe in their cloistered, gated communities (probably not ever here anymore – somewhere safer like Qatar or Abu Dubai (sp?)). Building new loser free communities out into the ocean. Or Cabo, now that all the other Mexican resorts have been contaminated with the others.
Besides the US military is ready to step in because we’re all terrorists now.
And the US has almost as many cameras and surveillance points as Britain, at taxpayer expense. They can sleep well knowing they are safely out of reach of consequences.
May 18th, 2009 at 12:13 am
OT but relevant to trust & confidence in our “markets”. It seems the Madoff investigation is heating up. It looks like some of his preferred “clients” told Madoff how much in “returns” they wanted. This is going to get very interesting.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124261271530929129.html#mod=djemalertNEWS
May 18th, 2009 at 1:21 am
The New Economic Threat From Credit Default Swaps
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10677.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/its-back-the-turd-war-at-merrill-heats-up-again-2009-5
May 18th, 2009 at 1:30 am
See also
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aM2f6EkQsGxE&refer=exclusive
May 18th, 2009 at 1:37 am
>> wunsa-,
>> spill, w/ the “Bull”-case..I like learning things
MEH, on the one hand, I was trying my hand at satire, actually.
On the other hand, I often find myself in agreement with many points from either Franklin411, Grantham, or other less-bearish people about liquidity hopefully:
- lessening the overshoot downwards on nominal asset prices
- producing a less painful outcome than pure debt deflation
At the same time, I keep in mind:
- the Steve Barry / Mish emphasis on the debt/GDP ratio and future credit writeoffs
- a seemingly endless series of other data which paints a rather dire picture.
That’s why, for the past 3 years, I’ve kept some shorts and some longs. I’m too afraid to commit to heavily in one direction. (I shoulda put my money into CD’s a while ago, like someone else on this board said a few times the past couple of years. Less worrying. Slightly more money. A lot more sleep!)
May 18th, 2009 at 3:21 am
So I guess this means we’ve turned the corner. Right? I mean we can’t go much lower than here. Summers, Geithner and the Obamanator can’t be wrong. Not again. I mean not like Greenspan, Paulson and Bernanke. If earnings go any lower they will be negative. Right? Now that’s just downright impossible! Could’t happen. Right? Anybody…? Anybody…?
Think I’ll keep my cash at home in a can.
May 18th, 2009 at 8:14 am
wunsa-
I hear ya, though, as you point our, this: “Less worrying. Slightly more money. A lot more sleep!) ” is key.
There’s a big diff. ‘tween Sleep, and being asleep.
one is Good for you, the other, not so much/can kill you..
~~
aitrader,
no kidding. though, w/this: “Think I’ll keep my cash at home in a can.”, remember, all kinds of things like eating “Paper”..
May 18th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
BARRY HAS NEW ORIFICES
The stock market keeps going higher
I AM THE 3RD WISEST HUMAN IN THE WORLD
I AM THE 3RD WISEST HUMAN IN THE WORLDhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajgUp7xQIn6c&refer=home
May 18th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
[...] Ohne Worte — das “richtige” Bild (mit Verlauf) bei The Big Picture… [...]
May 18th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
[...] 2.With earnings season coming to an end, I wanted to find a way to depict the severity of the financial meltdown into the context of profits.S&P 500 Earnings Decline: 90% [...]
May 19th, 2009 at 2:13 am
[...] че това е дъно. Едно основание за предпазливост са намаляващите печалби Транспортният индекс е важен показател, поради факта, [...]
May 19th, 2009 at 8:28 am
[...] The Big Picture blog, this chart on the S&P 500’s 90% decline in earnings. Blogger Barry Ritholtz displays this chart [...]
May 19th, 2009 at 8:30 am
[...] The Big Picture blog, this chart on the S&P 500’s 90% decline in earnings. Blogger Barry Ritholtz displays this chart [...]
May 19th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
[...] The decline in S&P 500 earnings is breathtaking. (Big Picture) [...]
May 21st, 2009 at 10:55 am
[...] as win-win), the market has acted as though nothing bad was going on. S&P earnings are down an unheard of 90% over the past 20 months, unemployment continues to rise and we’re about to go through the [...]
May 21st, 2009 at 3:36 pm
[...] were down 30% or so from a year-ago level, and nearly 90% over the past two years (see S&P Earnings Decline). No sugar coating it. This was a horrible [...]
May 22nd, 2009 at 7:48 pm
[...] S&P500 Earnings Decline: 90%, The Big Picture, May 17 [...]
May 25th, 2009 at 7:19 am
[...] primer lugar, los beneficios han caído un 30% desde hace un año y un 90% desde hace dos (interesante gráfico en The Big Picture). En segundo lugar, las expectativas de los analistas han sido tremendamente [...]