In light of Friday’s BankUnited Failure, and our earlier post on rising foreclosures, here is an updated version of a chart I ran previously from Ron Griess of The Chart Store, showing bank failures:
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The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. ~Jesse Livermore
According to the CFTC weekly data for the week ended Tuesday, net shorts in the euro fell by 38% from last week's record high and are now at a 6 week low. Net shorts in the pound moved up a touch to just shy of its record high. Net longs in the Australian$ rose to the most since May '08 and net longs in the Canadian$ rose to the highest since Nov '07. Gold new longs fell to a 4 week low. Net longs in crude rose 14% and are just 12k contracts from a record high dating back to...
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May 25th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/sssss/#respond
Obama: We’re already broke.
(Freudian slip…I imagine)
May 25th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESFbdlskQz4
here…
May 25th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
The chart says “Bank Failures reported by FDIC.” As an auditor, I think that’s significant becuase the reader can infer that there are bank failures not reported by the FDIC. We now that the TBTF banks did fail, it just wasn’t reported and then it was covered up. I realize that Bushian or Obamanian don’t sound as good as Nixonian, but they may wet replace Tricky Dick on the fraud list.
May 25th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Oversampled try binning..
May 25th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I wonder if the attempt to make the FDIC “insurance” fee a bit more progressive was the realization that they are killing off smaller banks what were otherwise surviving.
Nah — prolly not. (not that it isn’t happening, but rather than the FDIC would recognize it)
May 25th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
WOW! Where’s Franklin when we need him?
Looks pretty ugly. With a lot more to come. We haven’t hit CRE yet. The saddest part, as pointed out earlier, is the dramatic increase in FDIC premiums charged to smaller banks. That alone is enough to push them over the cliff.
It seems terribly wrong to be shoveling $T to the TBTF, closing banks on terms favorable to the insiders (read Advanta), and jacking premiums accordingly.
That’s not free enterprise.
May 25th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
@Bruce
I still haven’t seen that Freudian slip mentioned in the MSM. It’s only being given attention in the blogs. Don’t you just love it. The only part of that interview that gets shown is the part on health care.
May 25th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
maybe the small banks are just as bad off as the TBTF ones. they just don’t know it yet. as they bought the same ‘assets’ based on the rating agencies advice. maybe the real problem is that the rating agencies sold their ‘advice’ to their customers (those selling the junk) and for some reason that looks just a little be odd. worse the regulators bought that they were doing their jobs (maybe part of that deregulation cult thing!)
May 25th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
just eyeing the chart, looks like this is getting worse, not better. I suppose the bulls and bears will draw different conclusions from that.
May 25th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Bruce,
i saw that link over at ZH. I don’t think it was a slip though, O knew what he was doing when he said that. Trying to figure out what that means next for policy, and the emotional reaction in the market is what’s most important.
May 25th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
There are no recent market posts so I figure this as good a place as any to throw this out there.
In the most recent 7 year return forecasts at GMO, published on 5/21/09, they have the following.
1. Long Term inflation assumption is 2.5%
2. US High Quality equities are given the highest return potential, with the lowest range of returns compared to all other equity assets.
Any thoughts?
May 25th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Sentiment Indicators:
Go the video’s section and see the latest from Barron’s
They basically say: Don’t chase this rally
Go to thestreet.com
Stephanie Giroux advises clients not to chase the rally…..
This advice is EVERYWHERE.
If you don’t think this countertrend rally can’t go further think again. Look out though when it’s over.
I thought this was short and sweet but worth a read:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE54O1WB20090525
May 25th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
If some rigid new regulatory framework for banks doesn’t result to prevent this fiasco from happening again in the future than we are destined to repeat it. If we survive it, this time.
May 26th, 2009 at 1:20 am
If some rigid new regulatory framework for banks doesn’t result to prevent this fiasco from happening again in the future than we are destined to repeat it.
Right, just like the regulatory framework enacted after the Great Depression was successful in preventing this crisis.
For a great part of our history regulation was achieved through bank runs, which is what happened to shady, over-leveraged banks, back before we had the brilliant idea to guarantee their deposits with the full faith and credit of the U.S. taxpayer.
May 26th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
[...] to 36 bankructwo banku w 2009 roku. Dla porównania: w 2008 roku zanotowano 25 upadłości, w 2007 zanotowano 3 bankructwa a w latach 2004-2005 nie [...]