Comments on: Stress Test — or Reality Check? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:06:57 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Stress Test: 25-to-1 Leverage as a Bank Target? | The Big Picture http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-169485 Stress Test: 25-to-1 Leverage as a Bank Target? | The Big Picture Fri, 08 May 2009 11:17:37 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-169485 [...] Stress Test — or Reality Check? (May 1st, 2009) http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/ [...] [...] Stress Test — or Reality Check? (May 1st, 2009) http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/ [...]

]]> By: jc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167201 jc Sat, 02 May 2009 13:33:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167201 Dimon says the crisis is 75-80% over ...oh, wait he said that a year ago when the Dow was 12.6. http://www.nypost.com/seven/04172008/business/dimon_does_it_106847.htm Dimon says the crisis is 75-80% over …oh, wait he said that a year ago when the Dow was 12.6.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/04172008/business/dimon_does_it_106847.htm

]]> By: jc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167192 jc Sat, 02 May 2009 12:43:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167192 Whistlejacket’s assets included bonds issued by Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG, as well as securities pooling home loans made by U.K. lender Bradford & Bingley Plc and Morgan Stanley, according to lists of securities seen by Bloomberg News. Come on Bloomie, give us the details! Whistlejacket’s assets included bonds issued by Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG, as well as securities pooling home loans made by U.K. lender Bradford & Bingley Plc and Morgan Stanley, according to lists of securities seen by Bloomberg News.

Come on Bloomie, give us the details!

]]> By: danm http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167187 danm Sat, 02 May 2009 11:31:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167187 Just the fact that they were pushing for all kinds of ways of not having to report the depressed values was proof enough for me that it was REAL bad. Interestingly in Canada, where supposedly we're now the worldwide Kings of banking, bankers are sighing in relied because we too will be dropping the mark-to-market rule. Now, please tell me why it would even be an issue if their loans were clean and performing? In my 18 years in this business, I am still amazed by the sheer number of people who don't see the evidence when it is staring them in the face. Just the fact that they were pushing for all kinds of ways of not having to report the depressed values was proof enough for me that it was REAL bad.

Interestingly in Canada, where supposedly we’re now the worldwide Kings of banking, bankers are sighing in relied because we too will be dropping the mark-to-market rule. Now, please tell me why it would even be an issue if their loans were clean and performing?

In my 18 years in this business, I am still amazed by the sheer number of people who don’t see the evidence when it is staring them in the face.

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167144 Steve Barry Sat, 02 May 2009 01:19:00 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167144 Bottom coming?...yes, built on solid fundamentals of 370% total credit to GDP. ...and how can I forget, negative OPERATING earnings for the S&P last quarter...you know, usually the best quarter of the year. Seems like a boom coming. Bottom coming?…yes, built on solid fundamentals of 370% total credit to GDP. …and how can I forget, negative OPERATING earnings for the S&P last quarter…you know, usually the best quarter of the year. Seems like a boom coming.

]]> By: call me ahab http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167118 call me ahab Fri, 01 May 2009 23:22:22 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167118 SB- thanks for the chart- definitely overbought SB-

thanks for the chart- definitely overbought

]]> By: moneyneversleepsblog http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167114 moneyneversleepsblog Fri, 01 May 2009 22:49:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167114 @Steve Barry - agree with the markets being overbought, the only issue with overbought conditions is they can stay that way longer than you would like at times... Market needs a catalyst (one way or the other). Perhaps stress test thursday or jobs friday can ignite a pullback, finally.. The scary part is of course that most seem to understand that markets are overbought and vulnerable so it's hard to get the expected move!! Here is someone making a compelling case for the recession to end by the end of this summer.. http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/forecaster-predicts-recession-will-end.html Props for making a bold call, I'm assuming most around here would call bullshit on that one... @Steve Barry – agree with the markets being overbought, the only issue with overbought conditions is they can stay that way longer than you would like at times… Market needs a catalyst (one way or the other). Perhaps stress test thursday or jobs friday can ignite a pullback, finally.. The scary part is of course that most seem to understand that markets are overbought and vulnerable so it’s hard to get the expected move!!

Here is someone making a compelling case for the recession to end by the end of this summer.. http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/forecaster-predicts-recession-will-end.html

Props for making a bold call, I’m assuming most around here would call bullshit on that one…

]]> By: Steve Barry http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167110 Steve Barry Fri, 01 May 2009 22:25:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167110 I haven't been posting too much...if I did, it would just be the same thing over and over anyway...this is another datapoint on how overbought the market is...analyze it as you wish. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNDX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52576604621 I haven’t been posting too much…if I did, it would just be the same thing over and over anyway…this is another datapoint on how overbought the market is…analyze it as you wish.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNDX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52576604621

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167100 Mannwich Fri, 01 May 2009 21:42:55 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167100 Gee, I wonder if the REITS and their friends were tipped off early on this move, hence my SRS pounding? It looks like there is nothing the feds won't backstop at this point. How is this even possible without any dire unintended consequences down the road? And note that it's still not enough for these guys. They want the older securities backstopped as well and will probably get it soon enough. It's getting close to the time where Mannwich take his ball and goes home. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDiy_Zpv2vZY&refer=home Gee, I wonder if the REITS and their friends were tipped off early on this move, hence my SRS pounding? It looks like there is nothing the feds won’t backstop at this point. How is this even possible without any dire unintended consequences down the road? And note that it’s still not enough for these guys. They want the older securities backstopped as well and will probably get it soon enough. It’s getting close to the time where Mannwich take his ball and goes home.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDiy_Zpv2vZY&refer=home

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/stress-test-or-reality-check/comment-page-1/#comment-167097 Mannwich Fri, 01 May 2009 21:32:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=25385#comment-167097 Meanwhile, speaking of stress, this one's a fairly sizable failure......what's up with Georgia? Are they just going state to state? They seem to have the most failures thus far, by far. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/bank-failure-30-silverton-bank-national.html The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $1.3 billion. Silverton Bank is the 30th bank to fail in the nation this year and the sixth in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution to fail in the state was American Southern Bank, Kennesaw, on April 24 Meanwhile, speaking of stress, this one’s a fairly sizable failure……what’s up with Georgia? Are they just going state to state? They seem to have the most failures thus far, by far.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/bank-failure-30-silverton-bank-national.html

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $1.3 billion. Silverton Bank is the 30th bank to fail in the nation this year and the sixth in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution to fail in the state was American Southern Bank, Kennesaw, on April 24

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