The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Yesterday’s stock market celebration of the possible return of the US
consumer to the world stage again after the better than expected
consumer confidence data continued overnight in Asia as any maker of
goods headed for US shores rose sharply. The Conference Board # was a
written questionnaire that was filled out weeks ago. The weekly and thus
more timely ABC poll last night fell 2 pts to a one month low led by a
drop in the Personal Finance component. With mortgage rates rising to
the highest level since March, the MBA said refi’s fell 18.9% while
purchases rose 1%. Two ECB members said their 1% benchmark rate
shouldn’t be considered a floor and the Euro is lower in response.
Global bond markets are lower again with yields heading to their highest
levels since mid Nov as supply is not just a US issue. The $64k question
for the US economy is at what level do higher rates hurt. Existing Home
Sales are key today.