The final April U of M confidence # was a better than expected 65.1, up
from 61.9 in the preliminary reading and 57.3 in March. Since the final
figure consists of 40% of the preliminary reading, it implies that
confidence improved noticeably in just the last two weeks but most of
that gain was in the Outlook which rose 4.2 points as Current Conditions
rose a more modest 1.7 points. One year inflation expectations were
2.8%, down .2% from the preliminary reading but up from 2% in March.
It’s the highest final inflation # since Nov ’08. Confidence is a more
of a coincident index and likely follows the rally in stocks and ‘green
shoots’ talk rather than having any predictive power in helping us
decide where the economy goes from here, particularly the consumer
spending part.

Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “UoM”

  1. Onlooker from Troy says:

    “Confidence is a more
    of a coincident index and likely follows the rally in stocks and ‘green
    shoots’ talk rather than having any predictive power in helping us
    decide where the economy goes from here, particularly the consumer
    spending part.”

    Bingo. Thus the absurdity of anyone using this data to further justify this rally. Although I’m not sure that’s even the case anymore. The market seems to be going up because it’s going up, at this point.

    You know how that ends up. Just a matter of when. It’s hard to believe irrational exuberance could last very long in this economy, but people just never fail to amaze me in their ability to rationalize and put on the blinders.

  2. jeff in indy says:

    a. folks are getting “used” to living in the current environment (i.e., lower confidence, less spending, etc.,) making it their/our new reality the longer we get from “the good ‘ole days,” and
    b. it will be interesting to see how the confidence number reacts when it sinks in that we’re not returning to the good ‘ole days any time soon.

  3. AlGore says:

    Same thing as a large poll taken recently; said 60% of people think Obama has the country heading in the right direction, which is to the left.
    That tells me The Bankers and their CONgress and administration will feel empowered to “spread the wealth” your kids are living in tents.

  4. Bob_in_MA says:

    Bloomberg once had a headline: “Stocks up on rise Consumer Confidence”

    The first paragraph of the story attributed the rise in confidence to the recent rise in the stock market… doh!