Dow tacks on a nice bounce following last week’s drop.

Major indices are up 3% across the boards.

Anything to add ? What was this about?

What say ye?

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

117 Responses to “Up 235 !”

  1. I-Man says:

    In a word:

    Volume.

    In six words:

    Strong hands selling to weak hands.

  2. leftback says:

    Low volume SQUEEZE….

  3. call me ahab says:

    unfortunately, for the markets it won’t be “love you long time” like a few girls I have associated with

  4. greg says:

    It’s simply the markets way of telling Meredith, her 15 minutes are up.

  5. ben22 says:

    I’d expect prices to roll-over tom. and continue a short term move down. Today was the head fake I discussed on the other thread at 8:30 this morning. People are on to the volume from today, 1.4billion shares on the NYSE today, slowest day in the month of May.

    if we do in fact roll-over tom. and somehow break the low of Friday we will probably not see the highs again from May 8 for a while and I think my first scenario is in tact which is that we could test the lows from March, or just above them before moving higher again. If it doesn’t work that way it’s the zig zag I discussed as option 2 and I think we trend on up to the 200 day ma’s.

  6. constantnormal says:

    It is the running of the bulls, from Wall Street to Pennsylvania Avenue. Poor hapless smaller bears are being tossed aside in the stampede. The bigger, more substantial bears are awakening from their slumber at all the racket … hungry.

  7. constantnormal says:

    When the banksters have finished stuffing their suitcases with the money from new issues of their stock and are positioned suitably short, the bell will ring and the tide will flow the other way.

  8. Pat G. says:

    Soon the drugs will wear off.

  9. ironman says:

    BR asked:

    Anything to add ? What was this about?

    What say ye?

    Well, since you asked….

  10. franklin411 says:

    I didn’t pay attention to today’s news flow (swamped with midterms that need grading, and then I have a book to read, and then there’s always the Sword of Damocles hanging over me…aka dissertation!). However, I will offer this anecdotal story:

    My local Costco was packed to the gills with shoppers this weekend. They had some great deals, and my friend and I loaded up on electronics etc… Best Buy just opened a store here on Friday and I checked it out yesterday too. I was surprised that the store was full of shoppers and there was a line for the registers–shocked, because, as is typical with Best Buy, everything was overpriced.

    Back to midterm grading…

  11. bubba says:

    Greg says:
    “It’s simply the markets way of telling Meredith, her 15 minutes are up.”

    I’ll take MW over that GS joker that was bullish on BAC today. I mean what in Hell is a “conviction buy?” Is that more or less bullish than a “super-duper-I-really-mean-it buy” list? I really can’t decide.

  12. YY says:

    I did trade, given that I have been sitting on shorts for a few weeks, I had hedged my shorts with some Longs last Friday.
    Today I sold these Longs and added small short positions. The cumulative positions are down but the longs smoothed the ride somewhat.

    I remain intrigued at the massive selling of MSFT shares by Bill Gates http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=902012

    He sold over the last year about 15% of his shares, and since end of April around 20 Million shares. Some of these sales captured 7-10% of daily volume,
    yet MSFT price has not seen much downward pressure. It is a weird mix of bullishness and bearishness that is leaving my in awe.

    Any opinions?

  13. Bubba:
    I always figured that meant to buy it now, before it tanked. Besides, FASB supposedly passed a rule today(effective in November) that banks will have to bring all those “non-balance sheet” items back on the balance sheet. The same things that blew up Enron.

  14. ben22 says:

    conviction buy means 0. CSCO and MSFT were both on that list in the last 12 months.

  15. jc says:

    Another 4000 greenshoots. I thought all the banking/financial layoffs had already happened.

    American Express Co. said Monday it will trim 4,000 jobs, or about 6% of its workforce as part of a cost-savings plan. Under the plan, AmEx hopes to save $800 million during the remainder of 2009. About $175 million of the savings are to come from the job cuts, which are expected to cost $180 million to $250 million in a second-quarter severance charge. Reduced spending on marketing and business development is expected to save $500 million, and cuts to consulting, travel, and general overhead are expected to save $125 million

  16. VennData says:

    By India’s voters weakening their religious BJP party they get a massive rally.

    A note to the GOP: Dump the religious loons… all couple dozen of them who showed up to protest our Commander-in-Chief (at a time of war) in South Bend. The fact that no one by the ineluctable Alan Keyes of any acclaim shows up. Maybe they’re starting to get it. It’s time for the GOP to come back into the science lab. Do it.

  17. Itiswhatitis says:

    Uh, I was to Best Buy, a new store opening and it wasn’t packed. There was no line. Stop the mumbling Franklin.

    The Dow Jones and other sickening indexes should be liquidated. “Stock Markets” are illumanation and anti-western in tradition. The rule of the Merchant Caste will end and the resurrection of the natural aristocracy of men will revive western civilization again.

  18. Itiswhatitis says:

    “A note to the GOP: Dump the religious loons… all couple dozen of them who showed up to protest our Commander-in-Chief (at a time of war) in South Bend. The fact that no one by the ineluctable Alan Keyes of any acclaim shows up. Maybe they’re starting to get it. It’s time for the GOP to come back into the science lab. Do it.”

    Then they will lose a signifigent chunk of the vote………..unless they raid the Democrats due to the zionist cleaning. May work afterall.

  19. moneyneversleepsblog says:

    Volume has died off recently, S&P fell into support, caught a jump. Not much going on really!

    How many think 666 was the low for the year? It seems unlikely that 943 will be the high for the year in the S&P but we will see how the S&P reacts if it can back into that 930-945 range.

    CNBC had an article about the death of buy and hold essentially.. that is usually an encouraging sign for long term investors…

    http://moneyneversleepsblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/revisiting-buy-and-hold.html

  20. Bruce in Tn says:

    The up 235 is as old as the age of fables.

    Once there was a king, who was clothed by a tailor from Goldman Sachs. This tailor was said to create the finest clothes in all the land, and if you could not see these clothes, there, indeed was something wrong with you. This GS tailor cheated the king, and had him wear nothing at all. Indeed, the populace could see that the king had no clothes, but were afraid to voice their doubts and have others think something was wrong with them.

    Lo, one day to the land came the child Ritholtz. People knew that the child Rithholtz had no evil in him..(some likened him to a bulb of dim wattage…) and in a parade one day, did happen to see the king and cried,”The king hath no clothes!”

    Soon the cry was taken up across the land. (With an appropriate very long delay….). The evil tailor from Goldman Sachs was vanquished, and the Ritholtz was acclaimed “Good, if too loud, personage….”

    The end.

  21. bubba says:

    @ calvin, Ben22

    yeah, I was being facetious. Ever since the dotcom days I’ve always thought this whole upgrade/downgrade game was a farce. A good buddy of mine used to work for a (smallish) sell side firm, he told me that he would initiate coverage on a stock, see it shoot passed his target soon after it was publish…then he would get pressure from higherups to issue an update whereby the target would be raised…all this without ANY material improvement in the fundamentals of the company. FARCE.

  22. bshaheen says:

    The recession is slowing down and soon will be over, then after a while growth will come back later this year or early next year. 700 billion in stimulus will help and the next bubble will begin. Pretty standard stuff and all the mental masturbation about banks, jobs, housing and wages will be a distant memory. The market smells it and might have gotten ahead of itself lateky, but will pull back and then move higher.

  23. wunsacon says:

    The big downward leg was forced deleveraging. And, unfortunately, it appears to be over. I have to wonder: will stocks keep increasing again (or at least not tank) until another “event” that forces participants’ hands? What might that be?

    Sometimes, to avoid being too bearish (about nominal prices), I try to remind myself of this toy model:
    - Banks or the government create IOU’s.
    - While it lasts, that supply of IOU’s flows thru to some other companies. By owning the stock of those companies, you in theory hold a claim to some of those IOUs. Even if the number of unemployed and homeless increase, stocks of companies that collect IOUs (more IOUs than they pay out) should be worth *something* to somebody (even if it’s to “strong hands” — GS or the top 1% — and not to “weak hands” — unemployed 401k holders).

    Recently, two activities put substantial supplies of new IOU’s into private circulation:
    - Various government agencies bought worthless paper with cash.
    - The Fed has been purchasing Treasuries outright with cash.

    So, were private parties just going to sit on all that cash? Or were at least some of them going to invest in some of the companies out there with low/no debt and low PE’s, especially in the face of threatened currency devaluation? Well, they invested it.

    That’s my humble, non-earth-shattering explanation for the motivation behind the buying the past few months. But, I even think it can continue. As long as the feds are going to keep giving cash for trash in bailouts and as long as the dollar is feared doomed, then why wouldn’t it? (As for when the bailout gravy train might end, hasn’t the government effectively told the world they’ll bail out everyone and their grandmother?)

    When might this current trend change? When the Fed stops buying Treasuries and/or the feds stop bailing out, that will curtail the supply of new IOUs. (Money will become “tight” again even if rates stay low!) So, in one scenario, perhaps, the market will stop rising *after* the last big bailout transaction. Actually, that would be just the sort of counterintuitive move the market likes to make. I.e., once the biggest bailouts and T purchases are behind us — the “bad news is behind us” — wouldn’t that make for a perfect “sell the news” event?

    Of course, if we do have an honest-to-god currency crisis (which I think we “need” the way a patient would prefer their legs cut off to prevent the spread of gangrene), then stocks could still keep rising nominally.

    Ech…so many variables…so few internal registers…even if I admit (as I do above) the possibility the trend can continue, I will maintain hedges in the way of a few S&P puts.

  24. KC says:

    I think that “122.5″ P/E ratio is going to spoil this party. Slap on a 15 multiple to what can be expected as a long-term mean of “45″ earnings, and you have yourself 675. Meaning 675 is where we can expect to be hovering for the next 5-10 years. That’s not the bottom, that’s the mean. I still see the S&P at 400-465 by mid-2010.

    But short term, even though earnings seem ridiculously low, how can stocks go up at a 122 PE ratio? Stocks are 40% more expensive than they were 2 months ago. The market is only fairly valued for those predicting earnings to go back up to 90/share by next year. The only thing that could fuel this market is naivete. And I don’t think the average investor is going to be hungry for risk-taking any time soon…

  25. patfla says:

    a conviction buy means: first you buy then you get convicted.

    “The fact that no one by the ineluctable Alan Keyes of any acclaim shows up.”

    “The ineluctable modality of the visible”. Always liked that phrase. From James Joyce’s _Ulysses_. Although part of the reason I suppose that I tend to avoid the word.

  26. rob says:

    Green shoots of course! http://www.knology.net/~aquaabyss/greenshoots.jpg Of course no one seems to realize that after the fire, green shoots are the first thing to appear, but there’s no life around for a long time! Green shoots are NOT the recovery, only time is and a few hapless souls willing to venture back into the fire charred landscape!

  27. Post opex cleanup. All those shares that were sold short in order to make all those options expire worthless had to be bought back

  28. w/this: http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/markets/ingredient.asp

    it’s EZ to see that the Conned-Mooer is, still, but as seldom b4, getting fully hosed @ the Try-n-Save (thanks M. Groenig)

    and, is taking it @ the Pump n’ Go, as well, as the ‘Retail’ spread is widening, again..

    We’ll be lucky if this Stops at 1/9/20/70 ..

  29. JasRas says:

    Low volume today. We’ve had eleven days that have alternated–today was up, and by golly it was! It had to bounce a little to be able to have a good run this week at breaking the support down below… (insert evil laugh here).

    We are late late late into a wonderful spring rally. Any day up is a gift that lets you prune your low conviction ideas.

  30. Mannwich says:

    Two words: Greater Fool.

  31. JasRas says:

    I expect no big “whooshing” on the next moves down, only long slow drizzly slippage. There are many ways the market can induce pain on investors…ask anyone who’s held big pharma over the last nine years giving it up a few dollars at a time each year with periodic teasing.

  32. clawback says:

    VennData,

    I’m sure the banksters and their bondholders are very glad that everyone is worked up since the Abortion Circus came to town, but the only “war” we’re in right now is the one between us and the people who are robbing us blind with these bailouts (TARP I, TARP II, TALF, Pee-PIP…). If only the clowns had been protesting THAT.

  33. Simon says:

    There are two things to consider in addition to everything else, future inflation expectations and that the USA may not be the center of the financial universe any more.

    It may be that investers are looking at other markets and thinking, oh! maybe its all OK again here too.

    I find Prieur du Plessis’s posts exhausting but very worthwhile.

    Decoupling again anyone?

    Having said that, the list of sectors and stocks I would buy, if I could, is much longer than the ones I wouldn’t or would like to short.

  34. jbruso says:

    Barry’s recent posts about profitability for the S&P are prescient. I find it interesting that the shorts are still nowhere to be seen. http://www.google.com/finance?q=SDS is at its low range.

  35. Simon says:

    Correction, the list of stocks I would buy is much much SHORTER than the one I wouldn’t or would short perhaps. I mean CRE, consumer discretionary, some financials have got to be good shorts again very soon.

  36. Groty says:

    Almost all the stock markets in the world are simultaneously going vertical. Those who have been bearish or on the sideline are now more fearful about missing the move than they are of losing money. That leads to performance chasing and dip buying.

    After a 35% move off the bottom, a correctioin of at least 10% would be expected, and a 50% retracement of the entire move would not be out of the ordinary.

    Instead we got a 6% correction last week, and half of it was reversed in a single day today.

    That’s a strong market. I interpret it as there are alot of people underinvested in equities who now want equity exposure, although the weak volume is troublesome.

  37. Marcus Aurelius says:

    According to Yahoo finance:

    Stocks jump on renewed optimism on housing, banks

    Yup. That’s it.

    You get what you pay for.

  38. ben22 says:

    wow, check this, when people get a hold of this I wonder what the reaction will be. Could it be that they just might want to move to cash? I’ve been saying, when this is over, the desire to hold cash will be at record levels. this article could also give a clue as to how the US$ actually does well during the credit deflation burst. the debt holders in US$ and then the US equity holders also has a new preference in how they invest savings.

    http://moneyfeatures.blogs.money.cnn.com/2009/05/18/obamas-favorite-mutual-fund/

  39. F. Horne says:

    Agree with groty.

    The other thang is, all the smart money wants to know whether this is a bear rally or a bull rally, and they ain’t gonna put any money in until they find out. That’s been happening now for 244 SPX points. They want their rally to be for real, so they can get some style points for participating. They’re like…this ain’t a real rally. I’m gonna wait til it’s real. Not gonna be in there with the hunky herd, they’re so tacky.

    It’s hilarious really.

  40. thetanman says:

    Up massively on tiny volume? Well no one wants to sell, there are few buyers, and shorts getting squeezed. We ran a ridiculous amount to the downside, now we’re running up on nothing? If this keeps up the pensions and institutions will pour in for the final rinse/repeat. There are so many super bearish people that on any little decline they pile in 2x, 3x short. Then they get the vice. A lot of the ramp from ’06-’07 was one continuous squeeze. Even in the face of a teetering housing market.

  41. Cursive says:

    @ Comman Man

    Excellent analysis. Opex clean-up. Still waiting for the Inevitable Fall (TM). Now, the Inevitable Fall (TM) may be preceded by the Inevitable Pull Back (TM), followed by the Inevitable Crescendo (TM), but we will have the Inevitable Fall (TM). It’s inevitable.

  42. edhopper says:

    I called my broker to sell a little stock that has had a nice run up.
    Asked if she has any idea what is pushing up this market except “irrational exuberance”.
    Nope!

  43. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    maybe BHO is in T-Bills & Cash because he’d heard GS put them on their “conviction buy” list…

  44. Wes Schott says:

    @thetanman – you are making some sense.

  45. Steve Barry says:

    The 3 days QQQQ was down last week, volume averaged around 190M shares…the three flat to up days, including today, averaged around 120M, today was 114 M. Enough said.

    Anybody know what happened to the search box on this blog? Is it gone?

  46. Cursive says:

    @ben22

    This is the “people’s president?” FYI, Greenspan loved Treasuries too. When you’re a made man, it’s all about capital preservation, not capital appreciation. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

  47. Wes Schott says:

    @Ben-duece-duece

    “The Social Index fund has about 26% of its investments in financial stocks”, hence the continuation of the H. Paulson policy….Bailout the financial industry

  48. amadeus says:

    Short term, you can trade this market but looking forward you can’t own it. It will only deceive you.

    It’s got the look and feel of a zombie. No fundamental; just a rush after a large push from the Fed.

  49. DL says:

    Steve Barry:

    Search box still there. Top of page.

  50. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Groty Says:

    “. . . although the weak volume is troublesome.”
    ____________

    This, alone, would seem to negate the first part of your comment (if I understand you correctly, and there’s a good chance I don’t).

    I think there’s a greater chance that anyone with anything personal to lose is staying out (except for insanely optimistic perma-bulls, and they can’t move the market that much). I think what we’re seeing is taxpayer-funded support of the markets (through the use of Open Market Operations allowing direct purchases of stocks — as opposed to Treasury securities — by primary dealers). Check Gold and the dollar (gold gapped down big at the open, and the dollar fell throughout the day. Where did all of that “money” go?). If anyone thinks the Fed wouldn’t divert fiat money explicitly for this purpose, they aren’t giving “full faith and credit” to the Fed.

    The Phantom of the Market is at work here.

  51. DL says:

    amadeus @ 8:16

    “Short term, you can trade this market but looking forward you can’t own it”.

    Agree. The SPY and XLF, for example are trading within a rising channel. That’ll continue, until it doesn’t. For example, XLF could get to $13.5 soon, or $13.75, at which point it would be worth shorting for a brief pullback. The trendline of $RUT and $TRAN is somewhat less clear than for XLF and $SPX.

  52. CC_in_Georgia says:

    Anybody else on here sitting for a CFA level in June? Level 2 here.

    Should be cramming for the final push but I find the comments here infinitely more interesting than reading about autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (say that 5 times fast).

    I bought some SPY right at the 700 level before the eventual bottom and sold out last Monday. Spent a week thinking about it and finally bought the 1x short (SH) at the close today.

    The risk/reward to me seems strongly tilted to the downside at present. I would be fairly surprised if we went above 950 but an eventual retest of the lows would not surprise me at all. That’s enough for me.

  53. Onlooker from Troy says:

    My comment brought over from another thread:

    The problem with using some kind of normalized earnings (like PE10) at this point is that earnings over the last 10-20 years (especially the last 6 or so) have been pumped up and skewed by the increasing use of leverage in all parts of business. So how do we account for the shift to a much less leveraged world (and the transition to that; i.e. debt deflation) and figure out what earnings will be and how to value the market now?

    Or as Dr. Hussman says: “the Market Climate for stocks remained characterized by mixed valuations – modestly overvalued on the basis of most fundamental measures except those that assume a sustained return to the record profit margins of 2007, and slightly undervalued if one assumes that a return to those profit margins is a given.”

    This extreme uncertainty is undoubtedly contributing to the current market volatility. Nobody has a real clue how to value things now or what the future holds, so we chase up and down.

  54. DL says:

    Onlooker from Troy @ 8:33

    “This extreme uncertainty is undoubtedly contributing to the current market volatility”.

    Yes, except that VIX is collapsing.

  55. Porsche87 says:

    Interesting, the volume on my bond ETF’s were all up. Perhaps everyone is diving for money market/fixed income while Mr Market decides which way to go.

  56. Onlooker from Troy says:

    DL

    Well I’m no expert on the VIX or markets generally, but I believe that the VIX is not a reflection of the market’s current volatility but instead is derived from the SPX options’ implied volatility; i.e. expectations of future volatility.

    I don’t think anybody can deny that the market has been very volatile since the Fall, both intraday and across longer periods of time; more at some times than others. Especially in the most troubled sectors where the future is most uncertain, like banks, REITs, retail, etc. I’m sure there are some other stats that measure market volatility. I’m not sure what they are.

    Please correct me if I’m wrong here.

  57. HCF says:

    @ DL:
    > Yes, except that VIX is collapsing.

    I’ve been trying to figure this out. Price volatility in stocks is high, but the pricing volatility in equity options hasn’t been. Should be interesting where this will lead…

    HCF

  58. Steve Barry says:

    Maybe I’m dumb…somebody please tell me where the search box is…pretend I know nothing about anything

  59. Top right hand corner

  60. thetanman says:

    Wes,

    Thanks. People keep talking about going back to 666. Well that’s our bedrock base: those people will NEVER sell. At least not a lot lower than the bottom. Now we have the people who have bought in anticipation of the news improving-which is already happening: they will not sell until some bad news comes out. So almost no one wants to sell except the nervous new longs that piled in with market orders that day SPY opened at 93. This only encourages the mass of staunchly bearish investors who pile into 2x, 3x bear EFTs. Soon the die hard shorts are in, the nervous new longs out , and up we go on light vol and a wave of short covering. We could do this fandango for quite sometime until someone capitulates. The irony is that the eager shorts could make the market hold up so pensions ect finally capitulate. The volume is low, but it looks even smaller compared to the volume during the deleveraging phase. Smooth that out and the volume is anemic, but not as bad as it looks at first glance.

  61. km4 says:

    Obama’s #1 economic mission ( in collusion with the 19 too big to fail banks that got trillions in TARP ) is to pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile that’s essentially worthless unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can be miraculously restored.

    And they are doing a great con job !

  62. ab initio says:

    Are TBP comments a good indicator?

    The generally bearish slant would imply continued increase in market prices – climbing a wall of worry. Maybe this rally goes further than most bears expect.

  63. Steve Barry says:

    The search box does not like me…it ain’t on my screen…I will send BR a screenshot, lest I lose my mind.

  64. km4 says:

    All of this renewed Goldilocks while
    1) The projected budget deficit for 2009 is $2 trillion
    2) The debt-drowned United States debt is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast i.e. The USA has $53 Trillion in unfunded liabilities
    3) The Fed is now holding $10 Trillion of ‘assets’ ( mostly toxic ) and cannot account For $9 Trillion In Off-Balance Sheet Transactions transferred from too big to fail banks.
    http://bit.ly/xjfH9

    4) Other countries now buying less of our debt

    Wow just wow the biggest ponzi scheme ever in America !

  65. ben22 says:

    ab initio,

    that argument would have lost you a lot of money last year. Might not be the best indicator to use.

  66. Marcus Aurelius says:

    km4:

    Yup.

  67. DM RTA says:

    six different sites, six different takes on volume….
    testing underside of up trend line; if the herd of indexes follows upward on any decent volume then up we go. It’s a good time to watch a little.

  68. tyaresun says:

    Steve,

    Don’t go crazy, I cannot see the search box either. I am using the Internet Exploder.

  69. MRegan says:

    So, multiples expanding, earnings falling- outlook bleak. How does the market justify these valuations? Stumped? Me too. The SLPs have got to change direction soon without signalling the market. How does one do that? Don’t know. Seems like one should look for evidence of evidence hiding.

    I recommend agnosticism regarding the market(s). There is no ‘it should be this way’, there is only ‘it is this way’ so pay attention to behavior.

  70. Wes Schott says:

    Folks, read tanman @ 7:57 and 9:17 – making some sense to me.

  71. Mannwich says:

    This is probably good for another 230+ on the Dow tomorrow. Better than expected. It also seems that everyone is desensitized to these annoucements. For example: $100 Billion used to seem like a lot of dough (and it is) for any entity to lose but unless the word trillion is in there these days, everyone just shrugs and the market grinds higher. It’s all monopoly money anyway, right?

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/wsj-small-banks-face-100-billion-in-cre.html

  72. matt says:

    Steve Barry – I think you have lost your mind :D It’s right there next to the “Weekend” button.

    Which browser are you using? I’m on Opera.

  73. Wes Schott says:

    No search box

  74. CC_in_Georgia says:

    I can’t vouch for whether TBP reader sentiment is a contra indicator, but there has been infinitely more truth spoken on this site than from the MSM.

    I’ll take my chances with TBP sentiment over the clown posse on CNBC.

  75. Wes Schott says:

    IE5 – he says embarassedly

  76. Mike in Nola says:

    Steve Barry: Using IE8 I can see it.

    BTW, saw somewhere on one of the RSS feeds I follow that one of the companies that surveys the marketplace says iPod and iPhone sales are down slightly. Can’t remember where I saw it. Figured you would like that news. At some point people with no money will stop buying unnecessary stuff. I’m sure they’ll say it’s anticipation of some new products.

  77. Wes Schott says:

    new iphone model coming out in June?

  78. Steve Barry says:

    Barry just sent me a screenshot from his browser…I see where the textbox SHOULD be…on my IE7 machine, it is not there.

  79. bonghiteric says:

    Strange day for me. I’m holding slightly in the money June puts on several mid and small cap stocks. The price didn’t budge today. The underlying stocks moved up but only about 1/3 to 1/2 the daily movement as they moved down last week. Also thought the lack of any gusto in UNG (which I’ve been watching for the last month) was interesting. I was in a lot of meetings today and thought that anemic volume was probable.

    BTW, off-topic. “Madoff Risk” is quickly becoming a term of art in the reinsurance world. Professional reinsurers aren’t accepting risks, especially in European financial sectors due to him.

  80. ben22 says:

    Steve,

    I guess you can’t switch to a Mac as it would seem wrong given your QID position.

  81. wunsacon says:

    Steve Barry and friends,

    >> pretend I know nothing about anything

    With that being said, FYI: you can, of course, use google. Just place “site:ritholtz.com” somewhere in the google search box along with your search terms.

  82. Steve Barry says:

    @Ben:

    Right…due to my QID, I am still using this cell phone…I can’t buy a new one and help the industry.

  83. Cursive says:

    FYI, I’ve got IE8 and no search box, contrary to Mike in Nola. However, I do see it with Firefox and Safari.

  84. Mike in Nola says:

    As to my 2 cents, as I’ve said before, we don’t belong this high, but would not be surprised if the hype machine pumps this to SP 1000. Only need some “better than expected” although still bad number this week.

    Could see it this morning with CNBC and the Lowe’s report and those bankers telling us how Texas is fine. The effects were only delayed by the oil bubble. 20% of lower end sales in Houston are foreclosures and million$ homes are stacking up on the market. Zion owns banks all ove the SW, including TX and CO. I’m sure that didn’t lend to the developers who are going belly up.

    More green shoots here:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/fed-delinquency-rates-surged-in-q1-2009.html

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/wsj-small-banks-face-100-billion-in-cre.html

    Here is an article on Apple sales.
    http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/05/18/ipod-sales-headed-for-their-first-decline-analyst/
    As I said, positive spin.

  85. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Mannwich re: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/up-235/comment-page-2/#comment-173072

    We’re all just completely numb to anything. The big numbers just don’t shock anybody. Even trillions don’t rock anybody’s boat anymore. I guess we’re calling it crisis fatigue, or something like that.

    It’s not good though, because this crap will matter someday. Sooner than people think.

  86. Steve Barry says:

    To spend $1 trillion in the average American life span of 77 years, you’d have to be on a lifetime spending spree of about $35,580,857 and change every day from birth.

  87. Mike in Nola says:

    Re: Search box

    Anyone using IE8, turn off compatibility view for this site. It’s apparently written to web standards :)
    You do that by going to the Page menu on the right and then clicking off the compatibility view if there’s a checkbox next to it. I turned it on and the search box disappeared. Turned it off and the box came back.

  88. gregh says:

    chopchop. just enough “generational buyers” here to keep this thing afloat. & Lots of money on the sidelines too…..just enough to keep this thing afloat? I think so. From a short-term perspective I see no reason for it to go up. From a long term perspective I don’t see much reason for it to be further down.

    We’ve seen plenty of charts comparing the big bears, p/e, uptodown days…I wanna see charts of CHOP!

    Steve Barry, I know where my search bar is, and I know where my volume is – emigrant direct/capitolOne – i don’t wanna be short or long is this spot.

  89. ben22 says:

    @ Steve,

    lol, you stole that phone from Zach Morris. I plan on buying a nice chunk of QID in the coming weeks/months.

  90. Wes Schott says:

    @Onlooker for Troy – no way you are into gold, is there?

  91. JasRas says:

    Sentiment on this site may not be a very good indicator. It would be nice to get an update from BR as to the traffic on the site. I dare guess that the avg daily traffic is at a four month low, but higher than last May… BR?? Any comments?

    As to comments, I see bearish, I see bullish, I see varying degrees of understanding. I read frustration b/c the market isn’t reflecting the economy, or vice versa (of course, it rarely does). I see that there are those discounting the importance of volume.

    There will be a point where the economy and the market seem perfectly align, but it never stays there for but a moment. The reality is that we probably unwound armageddon, unwound a bit of recession numbers, and now as numbers come on, we will rebuild reality into the market, then get back to discounting future outcomes; good and bad.

    It seems to me that new flow has slowed quite a bit. Not much seems to be going on…maybe it’s because the last nine months have been such a deluge that now normal flow is very slow.

    Does it seem to anyone else that a gatekeeper has been installed in D.C.? I see less Fed official comments–save Ben’s. C Dodd and B Frank are mute. Geithner is very controlled. It seems quite restrained–in an unnatural way. Anyone else??

  92. drollere says:

    the performance of the market, and the return on investment sentiment as aired on this blog (“look out! it’s a rising wedge!” “watch out! this sucker’s going down!”) point to a reasonable assumption: on the whole, financial data don’t matter. (fundamentals? in a casino? get real.)

    the market is a bubble/bust mechanism. it’s not based on a business cycle but a sentiment cycle. people who say the government is in the long con don’t fess up — it’s all a long con. the last bubble burned enough people badly enough that they are wary. it’s odd to say sentiment is mixed because volume is low and the outlook is still uncertain. better to say sentiment is undecided.

    people may be coming back into the market for no better reason than the obama administration seems to have its shit together, and seems to have a plan. (“seems”.)

    as peter stanyer said, TIPS are the benchmark: every investment has to assure a higher average return for any risk above the TIPS standard. as it turns out, we have historically and systematically underestimated the actual market risk. as it turns out, bonds over the past 20 years have outperformed equities.

    is the bubble machine really worth it?

  93. Wes Schott says:

    JasRas – quite insightful. Thanx

  94. Paul Jones says:

    What say I?

    More “single payer” capitalism, courtesy of the Fed.

  95. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Wes

    Just a tad bit of gold as the basic hedge. Why?

  96. catman says:

    So I’m off officiating at a golf tournament all weekend, and I come home and sleep in. About 9 cdt I roll out and the markets up 165. My TWM is holding up pretty good, I want to buy some NMM, and I have a 2 oclock time at the TPC. So it dawns on me that I need to sell the TWM, which I do for a hundred buck profit,and finish the NMM buy. I have a partial at my price, so I finish it off at the market, do the saturday NYT crossword which I missed because I was out of town for the weekend, and fly off to the TPC where they are calling my name as I arrive. Shoot a million, dont really care, since I hate the course and the course hates me, but damn, I almost run out of golfballs! Have a couple of overpriced but interesting beers with the boys. Fat Tire and Widmer Bros have just hit the prairie. Im searching for some Surlys. Come home and find the usual closing run, so the trend continues. The party in control pushes to the limit. Want in? Pay up. Grantham seems right in saying the market reacts much sooner and strongly than the economy. Have fun but dont snooze.

  97. Cursive says:

    I think this, from Zero Hedge, explains a lot:

    There’s some excitement about all the companies that beat Q1 S&P earnings estimates (see first chart). However, once you consider how many beat revenue estimates, it’s a less compelling picture. Companies are slashing expenses at a ferocious pace, which is an anorexic approach to profitability that cannot be sustained for long (same dynamic in places like France, where employment is falling at the fastest pace since 1970). A bounce in demand in H2 2009 will be critical in unleashing the operating leverage now being created; otherwise this is an Earnings Quality issue.

  98. catman says:

    Last call for puts or calls!

  99. Jojo says:

    Someone is delusional!

  100. Cursive says:

    Puts. I’ve been reading Zero Hedge for the past 30 minutes, so definitely puts.