If the VIX closes below 30 today, it will be the first time since Sept
12th, the Friday before the Lehman bankruptcy announcement on the 15th.
The Sept 12th close was 25.66.

Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “VIX”

  1. Blackhalo says:

    So, what are the implications of a low VIX historically. What security does it track? Calls vs. Puts?

  2. JasRas says:

    It has a negative correlation to market movement, generally.

    Also if you chart VIX and the S&P500, you will see that in nearly all crisis’ there are multiple VIX spikes with 30-40 wk spans between the spikes. We’ve had one. It was big. We are at week 37 from the peak of that spike. Perhaps because of the size of the spike, the time will expand…but I do not see how we escape another VIX spike. That will usually correspond to a move down in the market… I got nothing academic on this, just observation on a chart I did to 1990. Just something to think about.

  3. Simon says:

    Being a measure of volitility the vix references past movements. It is only a valuable indicator when it reaches a very high level as it indicates a potential turning point. Am I right?

  4. JasRas says:

    Umm, all measurements–ALL are of the past. We, as humans, are charged with making inferences to guide us in the future.

    VIX= volatility= fear/complacency. Lower numbers can indicate complacency. High numbers can indicate fear. What I have been looking at is the TIME it takes to move from one to the other. I am finding that it has some predictability because regardless of the event, humans tend to REACT in the same, consistant manner–nearly every time. The Human quotient is the variable that is so often overlooked.