Afternoon Reading
Somethings I have bookmarked for later today:
● ZeroHedge: Q1 Bank Trading: Only Interest Rate Derivatives (Make That Goldman Sachs)
● New Yorker: Sheila Bair and the White House financial debate.
● The LA Times: Personal bankruptcies surge in Southern California
The region had the nation’s biggest percentage jump in 2008, and the number this year through April is up 75% despite a 2005 rule overhaul aimed at curbing filings by those who would benefit unfairly.● Vanity Fair: Did the Sons Know?
● San Francisco Fed on the Jobless Recovery Redux? “Our analysis generally supports projections that labor market weakness will persist, but our findings offer a basis for even greater pessimism about the outlook for the labor market. Specifically, we suggest that the relatively low level of temporary layoffs and high level of involuntary part-time workers make a jobless recovery similar to the one experienced in 1992 a plausible scenario.
● OCC Report: Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities: Q1 2009
● Comstock Partners: Why the Economy Will Remain Weak: The key factor to consider is that the current recession was caused by a credit crisis following an artificial boom and therefore bears more resemblance to the great depression following 1929 or Japan after 1989.than it does to the series of recessions experienced in the post World War ll period.
● Bloomberg: Record Correlation Hints Herd Collapse: Investors are moving in lockstep like never before, driving up stocks, commodities and emerging markets and risking a replay of last year, when they all plunged the most since World War II.
● Reuters: Big Finance reverting to bad old ways — No sooner has the financial system begun to stabilize than Big Finance is reverting to its old ways — aggressive hiring, remuneration on steroids, wriggling out of regulation or threatening to decamp to evade tougher supervision. These are is not the rantings of some crypto-Marxist City-basher, but the considered view of one of Europe’s most thoughtful financial regulators.
● Freddie Mac June 2009: Update shows foreigners continue to dump agency paper. US primary dealers hold a record $368B of agency, MBS, Treasury and corporate debt, most of which has a maturity of less than three years.
● Karl Denniger, citing S&P mini-futures, asks, ‘where is the SEC’ on the blatant front running?
● Scientific American: The Science of Economic Bubbles and Busts
● BBC Magazine: Giving up my iPod for a Walkman. The Beeb gives a 13 year old boy a Gen 1 1980 Walkman for a week:
“It took me three days to figure out that there was another side to the tape. That was not the only naive mistake that I made; I mistook the metal/normal switch on the Walkman for a genre-specific equaliser, but later I discovered that it was in fact used to switch between two different types of cassette. Another notable feature that the iPod has and the Walkman doesn’t is “shuffle”, where the player selects random tracks to play. Its a function that, on the face of it, the Walkman lacks. But I managed to create an impromptu shuffle feature simply by holding down “rewind” and releasing it randomly – effective, if a little laboured.”
June 29th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
BR Says-
“Record Correlation Hints Herd Collapse: Investors are moving in lockstep like never before, driving up stocks, commodities and emerging markets and risking a replay of last year, when they all plunged the most since World War II.”
I find this very hard to believe- how many times can you fool the average American?
hmm. . . forget I asked
June 29th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Note that the Walkman/iPod kid is fat. Another sign of the times.
June 29th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Here’s an interesting link:
http://johncarney.tumblr.com/post/132274407/100-000-cra-challenge
June 29th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
There is an opinion I want to put forward here, and as I am a fiscal conservative, I expect some hasseling.
The sentencing of Bernard Madoff was a travesty. It makes the criminal justice system into a joke. 150 years for a financial crime. Complete and utter nonsense. I realize the lives of many have been harmed beyond redemption. I unstand some have lost everything. But one of the principles of our founding was that indentured service, that is economic slavery, was against the inherent right of a man not to serve his life for economic problems. This is even worse.
Recently a pro athlete was give 30 days for vehicular homicide. A human being lost his life, and the penalty was 30 days.
I am not saying that Bernard Madoff wasn’t a criminal and that his crimes deserve severe punishment. But life in prison?
Curmudgeon, you may take me to task for this. I know those of you who love the law think I am off base here. Nonetheless, I have thought this through, and I don’t like what I see.
My 2 cents….
June 29th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
B in T:
It’s not over until the appeals court. But I think the answer is that Bernie is a Dead Man Walking, if he were ever released someone would definitely top him.
Did frizzione really call Karen out for a bikini contest? Too wild. Whatever is the site coming to?
Did you see the call for dollar rally of 17%? That would be deleveraging, deflationary and downright delicious.
June 29th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
If Walkman was the grandfather of the Ipod, ghetto blaster/boom box is the grand father of……….???
June 29th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
B inT-
I am pretty sure they are trying to set an example- a detterent for future crimes- symbolic in many ways because any sentence over 10 years or 15 years was probably a life sentence anyway-
but to look at it another way- what if he took the money from you at gunpoint?- or snuck in you home and stole it? What then?? Because he did it under the guise of a professional money manager should make no difference-
why do non-violent drug users get long prison terms??? They are literally hurting no-one but themselves- whereas Madoff was stealing billions of $ from the likes of charities and people that entrusted their life savings with him-
I have zero sympathy for him- and remember- he was living quite well while it lasted- better than almost 100% of the human population
June 29th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Bruce in Tenn-
I think the criminal justice system was a joke long before this sentence was imposed, don’t you? What would you have preferred as a sentence?
June 29th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Denniger post is amusing….
Talk about pissing in the wind….I’m shocked, just shocked that this sort of thing is going on in our pure markets!!!
This is why it’s better just be a “chart reader.” When I saw that miniSP action that he’s referring to, I immediately assumed that there was some “news” coming….the market actually pulled back after that little overnight spike and gave you a chance to get out of shorts….of course the “news” came the next day.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
@super_trooper,
that would be a souped up Honda.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
@bruce:
I don’t agree with jailing non-violent criminals.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
VennData:
I see Carney doesn’t know when to quit. I found a bio on him over the weekend(wish I had saved the link). The guy is an idiot. He takes positions just to be contrarian with out facts to back him up.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
ahab,
my reaction to that one is how it goes with the ” all one market theme” we have been talking about here for a few weeks. Also, didn’t you bring up Billy Mays this morning, guess you don’t have to worry about him pitching anything anymore.
oh btw, most of these articles are pointing to deflation. Just thought I’d throw that out there.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Read the Comstock Boys…I can’t disagree with anything there, except I can say it without regard to being politically correct. While we should have depressed P/Es now, we have unheard of record high P/Es, which could only be possibly explained by projections of a strong earnings rebound that I honestly don’t see happening. Even if it did happen as projected, P/Es are way dangerously high. As for housing, for it to stabilize here would be a real magic trick…it must retrace back to at least previous all-time highs…give me a break.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:37 pm
b22-
dude- I was throwing out Billy Mays in my post as a remembrance- also-
I read an article yesterday that wondered whether Billy Mays- when going to bed Saturday night after hearing about the deaths of Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson said- “but wait, there’s more”-
ok you can drag me off stage now
June 29th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
BR had the Weeden @ Welling interview this weekend and I actually remember a post there last year by Montier and Edwards that was predicting a meltdown followed by a financial nuclear winter where everything slows down – like in physics where you approach absolute zero. It was a great read, and very accurate so far, especially if you follow Mish’s measures of the velocity of money. To me, the current state of the market is like what happens when a little steam is leaving a pipe on a cold day – a bit of Brownian motion is all that prevents it from turning liquid, dripping downwards then crystals from until eventually it is frozen solid. The ultimate liquidity trap.
Geeky !!
June 29th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
@ Bruce:
You need to distinguish indebtedness — an economic condition — from criminal fraud/theft. If I were $60 billion in debt, and somehow became that indebted without fraud or theft, I agree that it would be wrong for me to go to debtor’s prison, particularly since there had to have been some moron(s) on the other end of the lending that took a risk.
Criminal law is based in morality. (I don’t practice criminal law, btw.) It’s no crime to be the crappiest businessman of all time and lose $60 billion of other people’s money. But obviously it is a crime to lie and tell people you’re investing their money when you’re just pocketing it and your offices are a sham.
$60 billion would make you the #85 GDP in the world. You ruin people, cause unemployment and suicide with that kind of theft. 150 years isn’t good enough for him as far as I’m concerned.
June 29th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Sharing an interesting paragraph from Today’s Breakfast with Rosie… (Rosenberg) “Because of the aggressive stimulus out of Washington, personal income managed to jump 1.4% in May. But remember that the government does not create income or wealth, it merely redistributes them. One of the ingredients of the recession call is real personal income excluding government transfers and this metric dipped at a 0.2% annual rate in May and is still down at a 2.0% rate over the last three months. This is what we have been talking about for some time — green shoots make for good copy, but nobody should profess to know how the economy or the capital markets look like organically without the crutch of a government oxygen tank. Tape and glue can only last for so long. What we do know is what the consumer does look like stripped down to the waist, and it’s not a pretty picture. Wages and salaries fell at a 1.6% annual rate in May and are either flat or down for nine months in a row. The YoY trend is now -1.1%, which is the most that organic wages have deflated by since the data were first collected 50 years ago.”
June 29th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
I favor capital punishment for financial crimes like Madoff’s, Ebbers, and Lay.
The money they stole destroyed the savings, retirements, and health benefits of people and their children. Some benefit-less Enron retirees probably hesitated to go to a doctor in time to be diagnosed early for something and died prematurely.
There’s a tradeoff between lives and money. Misallocate the equivalent of “several thousand lives worth of work” and — somewhere/sometime — someone’s going to go hungry that otherwise would not have. You might not *see* it. But, if you believe in the invisible hand, having someone nudge that hand the wrong way will actually kill people.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
@BnT: Sorry, but I think Madoff actually deserves the firing squad. Anything else would be too kind at this point. In that regard, I’m with Transor Z on this one. He’s ruined so many lives not by being a bad money manager, but by STEALING billions of dollars and literally ruining many, many lives in the process. If that doesn’t qualify for life in prison, I don’t know what does.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
@BnT: But you are right about Stallworth, the guy who killed someone drunk driving recently. A 30 day sentence for killing another human being is beyond ludicrous and immoral.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
…how long is he going to live?
…tryin’ to scare the others – sending a message
…if you were Alan Sanford today, me thinks ye would be messing ye undies
June 29th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
On top of the real, life-threatening effects of white collar crime, it is more morally outrageous than the uneducated thug on the street mugging someone. Here we have educated, rich people who decided that “what-should-be-enough-for-anyone is not enough for me *and* I’m going to steal to get it”.
When people who can morally make it into — and stay in — the top 1% decide that is not enough, I say that at *some* point it should become a capital crime. Madoff looks like a good case to me.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Did anyone read Fleckenstein today? He rips Lawrence Yun and Co. a new one.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
@Steve Barry, what are your calculated P/E with and without financial sector?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
I knew I would get a variety of responses. And I am about as far from a bleeding heart as you can imagine. Just wanted you all to think about this. Madoff is not a killer. Doesn’t deserve the death penalty. Remeber under federal guidelines 85% of a sentence must be served. So if he were 30, it would still be life in prison.
I don’t and won’t feel it is justified to sentence a man to life for a non-violent crime. Especially one involving just money. And again, I realize people’s lives have been irreperably shattered because of this man. But when I see our justice system give slaps on the wrist for homicide, and make a straw man out of this criminal I am sickened. Yes, he deserves a stiff penalty. But if we are feeling better because this non-violent felon is given life for a money crime, we are not thinking correctly. You can’t bring back those that have been killed. But you can give the families of homicide victims some relief by stiff penalties against their killers. But to stick this easy target with life and saying in doing so you are making an example is not right. And it won’t be right in the morning, either….
Now I’m up to 4 cents…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
My typing continues to be my bete noir..
June 29th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Bruce, I’ll raise you 10 cents and a quarter…
“Just money”? … C’mon. Think of the Ford Pinto. Money affects lives. Misallocating (enough) capital kills as surely as pulling a trigger.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
@Bruce in Tn, just money? Since when is $50 billions just money? It’s the size of many countries federal budget. Possession of 50g crack cocaine, a non-violent crime, will give you 8+ years.
If he would have robbed a bank or someone’s home, at least someone might have taken the opportunity to shoot him. Now we can only hope that he will suffer the prisoners dilemma. Will he pick up the dropped soap from the shower floor or not?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
OK…answer me this with a figure…
How many dollars should it require for a money crime ..a non- violent crime against others…to require a life sentence? I’ll check your answers after supper.
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
in dollars, please….
now up to 6 cents…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Bruce – I don’t have too much to offer on your question – I don’t have a strong opinion either way.
I will, however, take this opportunity to get your back for your smart ass remark earlier
http://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/La-Bete-Noire-235831
June 29th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
In the article ” Bloomberg: Record Correlation Hints Herd Collapse:” i read “I have a lot of friends in the hedge-fund world; they talk to each other and have many of the same trades,” said Nick Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees $27 billion. “These are people who say, ‘I see a pattern, and I’ve got to jump on.’”
At what point is the “Smart Money” no longer smart? Is “This time is different” changing all the rules?
PS I know I am using too many quotation marks
June 29th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
@Bruce in Tn, I’m against the death penalty, but above $10 billions, I think it’s fair game. It’s the only way to contain excess greed on Wall street. You think Dennis Kozlowski’s 8-25 years was appropriate? That was only $400 millions.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
B in T
in the vein of “I can’t define pornography, but I know it when I see it”-
I will say this- “I can’t define the dollar amount of egregious theft, but I’ll know it when i see it”
and I see it
June 29th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
>> the prisoners dilemma. Will he pick up the dropped soap from the shower floor or not?
LOL. Oh, thaaat’s what they were referring to in Econ 101. I didn’t know!
>> How many dollars should it require for a money crime ..a non- violent crime against others…to require a life sentence?
My vote: for fraud, $10m = capital crime. I wouldn’t write the law with an actual number though. I’d say something like “200 times the national average salary”. Or “x” times the average discretionary income. (Otherwise, without having to constantly adjust the figure, we would run into the same problem we do with AMT.)
I’m all in favor of putting the number to a vote. $100m? Well, I guess… I’d be disappointed if people require a $1b theft before making it a capital crime. But, still, it’d be “a start”.
…
I’m sure I’m in the minority and am not about to go on a crusade about it… But, this is how I feel about the situation, Bruce.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Thank you Thor…as you know, one of my joys is being a smartass…
However, as I am illustrating, if the amount of money is the deciding factor in deciding that it is ok to put a man behind bars for the rest of his life, then we are failing ourselves…You simply can’t say that the felon who takes 100 dollars is less deserving of life in prison that the man who takes a billion. It is simply money.
In my business, medicine, human life is too precious for that. A tragedy occured recently in the midwest when a late trimester abortionist was killed. Our laws make late trimester abortions legal. The man did not deserve to die. Yet, most of those babies aborted in the late third trimester would be healthy outside the uterus. The only thing keeping them from being born the due date. You actually have to kill these babies to abort them.
So many inconsistencies in law. 30 days for vehicular homicide. Legal late third trimester abortions. A man gets a life sentence for a first time offense simply because he stole better than most could ever hope to.
No, Bernie Madoff does not deserve a life sentence for theft.
8 cents worth now…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Thanks wunsacon…I just want people to think about this….as a physician, without violence, I don’t think life sentences are justified….but I don’t mind the discourse….actually I come by most of my opinions after I’ve given them some fairly rigorous thought…
But I will always value others’ opinions…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Bruce – hmmm, thorny question. . . .What if there are hundreds of people who will die early because they can no longer afford medical care because of the money he stole from them . . . . . what if an old lady has a heart attack when she finds out all her money is gone . . . . Is a life for a life the only thing that would justify a long prison term?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
B in T
and let me add-
what do you think is an appropriate punishment??? Keep in mind that white collar criminals don’t go to maximum security prisons-
what is appropriate punishment???? Exile??? Public Service a la Michael Milken??? House Arrest??
June 29th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
@Bruce in Tn
“You simply can’t say that the felon who takes 100 dollars is less deserving of life in prison that the man who takes a billion. It is simply money.”
Yes we can! say that. Just like a mass murderer is more deserving of life in prison than one homicide.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Bruce – I’m not sure being a physician necessarily makes much of a difference. My partner is a clinical pharmacist and has a lot of friends who are doctors, I haven’t noticed any particular bias on the death penalty when the topic is brought up.
OT though – have you seen Nurse Jackie yet?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
No, violent crime, like shooting someone and causing brain damage, or loss of a limb….I don’t have a problem when human life is involved. It is the fact that a mountain of money is involved and because of the total Bernie gets life…that bothers me…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
Supertrooper…I would agree that even one murder might qualify…it is a fatal crime against another human being…
June 29th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
If Bernie Madoff stole 9000 new Cadillacs from Flint, Michigan…would he deserve a possible life sentence? Does the fact that it was investment money change the severity of the non-violent crime? If so, why?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Bruce in Tn:
I’m sorry to come in to the discussion so late, but I think I might have an answer for you.
The real issue here is his lack of contrition. And we knew he lacks remorse because he has been unwilling to out his co-conspirators. Because he is unwilling to tell us the whole story, the trustee — whose job it is to recover as much as possible for the victims — will be at least much harder, if not impossible.
Part of it is to “make an example” of him; that’s true. But I think that as long as he maintains his silence in regards to others he knows was involved (of this I have no doubt), justice cannot be served for the victims. We are getting bits and pieces, but nothing more.
I can guarantee you that in the other case you cite, you will find someone who truly has shown remorse, and has compensated the victims to the court’s satisfaction. I also have no doubt that there were other “prison-like” (or perhaps “prison-lite”) in-patient treatment.
It’s not a perfect system, but those who show no remorse get harsher punishments. (It’s part of the sentencing guidelines.)
I hope that helps.
BTW: There is a crossover between bankruptcy and white-collar crime. Let me tell you, for someone who was on the front lines fighting these battles in the legal trenches, I am glad they are finally getting serious about major white-collar crimes like this. They got away with far too much in the last 8 years.
June 29th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Bruce, you raise a really good point.
When it comes to morality, like selling a single fraudulent medical insurance policy to someone’s mother or grandmother, money is kind of a red herring. A dirtbag is a dirtbag, and to say money is the determining factor might be a way of saying only crimes against the rich matter . . .
Consider another non-violent crime: buying kiddie porn videos. Just an economic crime?
June 29th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
that should be “the trustee’s job…”
June 29th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Ok…now back to my non-serious side…if someone stole the Swedish twins from Leftback…should they get a medal? After all, the girls are bound to be happier…(and more satisfied….)…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Tranzor Z…exactly…kiddie porn deserves a stiff penalty…but life for the first strike? Now you are beginning to see my thinking here…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Ok.
100 years for Madeoff
300 years for Stallworth with work release on Sundays.
Seriously though, in this country the rationale for criminal sentencing is similar to airfare pricing. There isn’t any.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Stillaway – “Seriously though, in this country the rationale for criminal sentencing is similar to airfare pricing. There isn’t any.”
Agreed – what’s the point of having a death penalty at all when it costs a million dollars and 20 years just to execute someone? Where’s the benefit to society?
June 29th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
BnTn@7:44-
you seem to question the value of money
or, at least dollar bills, perhaps
how many ounces of gold is a man’s life worth?
June 29th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
@Bruce: Yes, but Madoff faced 11 counts of criminal conduct. It’s a little disingenuous to say this was his “first crime.” To use — ahem — “Stillaway’s” metaphor, he was more of a frequent flyer. Traveling first class all the way.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
@Bruce, Thor, all…
How about just a “community service” type of punishment?
Make him be the PERSONAL BUTLER for a month of all the families he wronged…
I’m in to “creative” sentencing…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
You could make a reality show out of it and the proceeds could go to charity!
June 29th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Okie:
This, my friend, I must also disagree with. Lack of remorse for a money crime should not cause a life sentence. Again, I would differentiate between violence against another human versus the economic crime in this case. If you are saying a lack of remorse should be grounds for life imprisonment, then I will just disagree with that.
Should we deny coronary bypass grafting to the smoker who does not quit? It has been determined in that fashion in Britain….should the thief get life for non- remorse???
June 29th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
cv – you are one creative sob…;-)
June 29th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Understood, Bruce!
Night y’all…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
LB here, working extremely late at the office, Bruce, and able to catch you in the act of your SKULDUGGERY.
“if someone stole the Swedish twins from Leftback…should they get a medal?
First of all, they would be sure to find their way home extremely quickly.
“After all, the girls are bound to be happier…(and more satisfied….)…”
Secondly, that is highly unlikely. Although other girls might be happy if the twins were stolen…
Madoff? I think it’s going to be downstairs and VERY close to the fire for Bernie.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
@wes
I’m just funnin’ as usual
…two hours of exercise always puts me in light spirits!
June 29th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
cv –
chapeau
y’ ol’ coon ass
luv ya’ man
June 29th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
I am opposed to the death penalty. Not because I believe it’s wrong to kill someone who has killed, but because of the wrongful convictions that occur in the criminal justice process.
Would you want your life in the hands of 12 average Americans and a prosecutor willing to conceal exculpatory evidence?
June 29th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
@lefty
I’m going to leave this thread and go back to the “25 reasons” thread for a review…
Somehow I was there all day and ‘missed’ the bikini contest (which is not something in my nature that I’d want to do)…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
LB,
…..enjoy those blonde cuties dude
June 29th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
maybe Madoff is the poster boy of what is wrong with the American financial system- maybe-
its the way they deflect from the TBTF banks- basically- it could be – “see we’re looking out for the people”-
all the while they let the TBTF banks escape serious scrutiny
June 29th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Well, mainly I appreciate the opinions here on this particular website, and I come here to learn. Many of you people have more economic brains than I will ever possess.
I just wanted you to think about this…I have. I certainly don’t expect you to come to my way of seeing this, rather I wanted people to realize there are those of us, generally quite conservative, who feel that this scoundrel was given too many lashes for this crime. I have a problem with the amount of money causing such a stiff sentence. And as Okie points out, remorse may have played a part.
Thanks for the discussion…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
@stillaway
I am opposed to the death penalty as well…But because I have trouble with the idea of killing others for any reason…
But I’m just as full of crap as anyone else…I eat meat (so I guess that’s KILLING animals), but isn’t a vegetarian KILLING plants?
I figure in the EATING category, animals kill other animals on up the food chain for survival (so that’s the nature of the game)…I just can’t see killing for “sport”, OR humans killing other humans…
I’m going to go put on my raincoat & body armor now because I feel a barage coming…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Bruce, you appear to hold several beliefs that I’d disagree with.
First, you refer to what Madoff did as “a financial crime” or “a non-violent crime”. He plead guilty to 11 counts, and everybody knows that each of the counts is a stand in for literally hundreds of counts that could have been charged.
Similarly, you refer to it as a life sentence for a financial crime. It works out to less than 14 years per count. If you consider what he could have been charged with, it is closer to 30 days per count. It was Madoff’s choice to commit so many crimes and to commit them so late in life. He deserves no break for either of those factors.
Next, you are ignoring what the money represents. People spent years and decades of their lives earning that money. Madoff stole the output of that time. He lacks the means to give back what he stole. He is paying in kind. I see justice in that.
Finally, you weigh the cold, calculated theft much more lightly than you weigh violence. Why? Criminal penalties reflect a variety of different factors in ways that aren’t always consistent, but there is a fairly consistent tendency to impose greater punishment on someone who commits a criminal act with deliberation and planning versus someone who commits a very similar act in a moment of passion.
I’m in disagreement with those who would impose a capital sentence for a financial crime above a certain dollar amount. However, I have no problem with Madoff serving a few days in prison for each of the numerous crimes he committed.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
leftback Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
BR had the Weeden @ Welling interview this weekend and I actually remember a post there last year by Montier and Edwards that was predicting a meltdown followed by a financial nuclear winter where everything slows down – like in physics where you approach absolute zero.
Funny you wrote that….I thought the very same thing when I saw the cover Weeden @ Welling…it’s the only article I had ever read from the source…it was a TBP link I believe.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
@Bruce,
Okie hit the nail on the head. It’s not Madoff’s lack of remorse but his unwillingness to name his “co-conspirators”. We all know that he had help. Since he is protecting these people he is taking their fall. Probably family members. He could have cut a deal if he would have disclosed them. He chose not to.
It was his decision.
Re: “Afternoon Reading”, I”d like MR Yun to “spin” the charts & graphs I saw in “Freddie Mac June 2009″.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
ottnott:
Thanks. Although I don’t see it that way, I can certainly understand your thinking.
I guess when you break it down to the very simpliest thread, I don’t think any degree of first offense non-violent crime merits the life sentence Madoff got. It is his first offense. No humans were injured or killed. And our court system did let the largeness of the total sum of money determine his sentence.
…I still think it is too much punishment. I have no real problems with the death penalty for those who take other life. And if you’ve read my postings over the months, you know I am not a liberal thinker of any stripe…
Thanks for your opinion…friend.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Proper punishment for Madoff = make him work at the SEC for the rest of his life helping to catch scumbags like him on Wall Street. How about that one?
June 29th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
Manny,
I thought the PPT was not going to show up today…but they did, and the long bond is being bought too.
What an interesting market…yet, I still don’t see where the turnaround in jobs and investment will come from in the private sector..
June 29th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Gonna call it a night…another very large day at the salt mine, but a very happy day.
Another all day sucker tomorrow…
Thanks for your opinions about Madoff…enjoyed each and every one…
June 29th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
For the most part I’m with Bruce on this one. We have become a punitive nation. We have more citizens (% pop) in jail than any other nation, developed or not.
Hang the bastard. Fry him. Good riddance.
Are we talking justice, rehab or vengeance? If you look at American sentencing guidelines, they have become incredibly severe, and in drug cases the judge frequently has no leeway. But on the other side, I know areas of the country where drug convictions for growing marijuana are impossible because it’s the county’s top cash crop.
More importantly our legal system is severely biased in favor of the ones that can afford the “right” lawyer.
When justice becomes injustice, then it loses its purpose.
I agree that 30 days for involuntary manslaughter for a DUI is absurd. People frequently get in excess of 30 days for a simple DUI. So I’d say there’s more behind that than meets the eye.
I can recall F. Lee Bailey, when asked about how he felt about getting guilty murders off scott free, replied: After they’ve paid my bills they’ve suffered enough, and the stigma that follows them all the rest of their lives is worse punishment that being incarcerated (ala OJ).
What, let Bernie wear a big red A around Manhattan.
Somehow I have the notion that if Bernie were set free, one way or another he’d free himself from the shame. And then again, others here are probably right. He wouldn’t last long free on the streets.
Our justice system is no longer about justice. It’s about money and politics. We’ll be hanging them or feeding them to the lions within a few years, or televising executions, just so a politician can win a few more votes.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
@BnT: Yep, and tomorrow being the final day of the quarter, I fully expect another up market again. I would be shocked if it went down much, if at all, tomorrow. I’m actually in full summer green shoots mode myself thinking that we probably won’t get the real deal on any serious pullback (or crash, which is what I’m leaning towards) until September or October when it becomes apparent that they haven’t really fixed anything structurally and that things aren’t really going to improve any time soon, certainly not anywhere near as soon as everyone is hoping/banking on. Summer green shoots season will be over and the leaves (and collective mood) will start turning brown.
June 29th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
@alfred
” He wouldn’t last long free on the streets”
Come to think of it, I’m not so sure on the OTHER SIDE either…
Russian Mafia if you know what I mean…
June 29th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
@guys re. Bernie Madoff –
did you listen to the Harry Markopoulis interview with Eric King?
it is quite interesting…and…
he was thinking that Bernie was going to off him…..
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Podcast/Entries/2009/5/29_Harry_Markopolos.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos
June 29th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
Anyone think the banksters or Mozilla will get 150 years?
June 29th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
@Manny
I wouldn’t get too emotional about it…NOT THAT YOU ARE…You, like most of the rest of us probably, seem more BORED than frustarted…
I still see it as highly technical at this point…
I’m still involved in trying to find the “leader of the pack”…Here are my thoughts…
- Crude traced ‘technically’ higher than a .618 retrace today (means a DOUBLE TOP or a higher high in crude is possible – or within a day or two it could be just a headfake)…
- DOW (which has LAGGED all the moves) is still negative on the year…
- TRAN (as karen pointed out today), is showing weakness…
- Dollar…well wjho knows WTF the dollar wants to do in the EXTREMELY SHORT TERM
- Long Treasuries,..LB has been on this…Rosie’s got his back…If you have patience, it seems real ALREADY…10y at 2 – 2.5 yield by late fall…
- Gold simply can’t break out…
So if you combine all that wisdom, I can’t see an extended push upwards from here…
- I’ve recently been in the camp that 956 was the high & we’re gunning for a 930-931 FIBO retrace on that by July 6th…After today (after seeing crude)…I’m keeping a HEADFAKE scenario on the table (somewhere UNIDENTIFIABLE – like 946 on the S&P that’s between 930 & 956)…
I don’t think you’ll have to wait until September…I see it starting to break down in July…FWIW
June 29th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
@Manny
I wouldn’t get too emotional about it…NOT THAT YOU ARE…You, like most of the rest of us probably, seem more BORED than frustarted…
I still see it as highly technical at this point…
I’m still involved in trying to find the “leader of the pack”…Here are my thoughts…
- Crude traced ‘technically’ higher than a .618 retrace today (means a DOUBLE TOP or a higher high in crude is possible – or within a day or two it could be just a headfake)…
- DOW (which has LAGGED all the moves) is still negative on the year…
- TRAN (as karen pointed out today), is showing weakness…
- Dollar…well wjho knows WTF the dollar wants to do in the EXTREMELY SHORT TERM
- Long Treasuries,..LB has been on this…Rosie’s got his back…If you have patience, it seems real ALREADY…10y at 2 – 2.5 yield by late fall…
- Gold simply can’t break out…
So if you combine all that wisdom, I can’t see an extended push upwards from here…
- I’ve recently been in the camp that 956 was the high & we’re gunning for a 930-931 FIBO retrace on that by July 6th…After today (after seeing crude)…I’m keeping a HEADFAKE scenario on the table (somewhere UNIDENTIFIABLE – like 946 on the S&P that’s between 930 & 956)…
I don’t think you’ll have to wait until September…I see it starting to break down in July…FWIW
June 29th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
@Manny
So you know I’m FLEXIBLE…Here’s the other scenario…
The VOLUME for the past 4 days has been incredibly weak…I think today was the lowest volume day on the SPY for the entire year…
So…if it is discovered that someone can push the market higher on weak volume, I’d be watching that trend as well…In that case…even 1,100 isn’t out of the question…
The BATTLE LINES will be drawn in the first week of July though…Past 956, this market may go parabolic…
I don’t want you to think I’m a ONE TRICK PONY…
June 29th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Manny,
You need to tart your language up a bit. In the Fall the leaves will be turning bright red and yellow, the air will be clear and crisp. Should start in the TC in a couple of weeks.
I have a special place in my heart for Minnesota. Had an uncle that lived in Mankato. When I was a baseball nut, the Twins had a great rivalry with the Orioles, and when they played in Metropolitan stadium, you could see a silo and some cows beyond the outfield fence. One time I slid off the Alcan highway in the middle of nowhere Yukon Territory. I was jack knifed in a ditch and no way to get out. A guy stopped, and the minute he opened his mouth I asked if he was from Minnesota. He asked how I was able to tell! He got me out or I might of had to take up with the locals and still be there. At least it would be cooler.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
@thetanman
“Twins had a great rivalry with the Orioles”
That’s because the Twins were the the first re-location effort of the Senators (so the I-95 rivalry lived on – although back then it wan more like Route 1 & the BW Parkway)…
June 29th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
@thetanman
and although you remember “The Met” fondly for the Twins…I remember it more as a frozen playground for Bud Grant (coach), Carl Eller, Page, Marshall, & Larsen (the Purple People Eaters)
June 29th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
@cvienne: Not emotional about it (anymore). In fact, I haven’t even been watching the markets that much lately. Too boring. Have been trying to enjoy the short summer season that we have here a bit. Nice getting out of my Unabomber basement bunker office a bit. We may get a little post July 4th dip but I’m guessing (again, just an UN-educated guess) the real downleg begins in the fall. “The Fall in the fall part deux”.
@thetanman: I’ve been here for 4+ years now, and think that Minny would be the perfect place to live in the U.S., except for those 11 months of winter. Just kidding, more like 4 months of winter with the other two months being highly dubious weatherwise. This time of year is just exquisite. Everyone here in the summer looks like they’re on something strong because nobody takes the season for granted. Green shoots indeed. Early fall here is nice too.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:40 pm
@thetanman: And just to remind some here at TBP that most of us do in fact have a life and enjoy “light” things outside of TBP and other serious blogs/topics like everyone else, I cannot wait until outdoor baseball returns to the Twin Cities this year. The ballpark is right off the bike path for me too. Should be fantastic. As a Red Sox season ticket holder (I refuse to give them up) and a bit of a ballpark snob, it pains me to watch baseball in that horrific Metrodome. That’s not real baseball in there. More like pinball combined with mini golf. They probably should have put a retractable roof on the new ballpark though. I could see a World Series with a “snow-out” or two in our near future….
June 29th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
@Manny
What? Not a “BAGGIE” afficianado? I’m shocked!
June 29th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
@cvienne: No, as I’m sure you agree, the “baggie” is a cruel joke on real baseball fans. I once saw David Ortiz (with the Sox) hit what would have likely been the longest home run ever in the Dome (according to the Twins radio announcer) become a single after hitting a speaker hanging from the roof in right field. Was an absolute moon shot bomb that ended up clanging off the speaker (after hanging in the air for what seemed like forever, looking like a shot out of “The Natural”) and falling harmlessly for a single. And my Red Sox never play well here. Yet another reason to look forward to the demise of the Dome.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
One thing about Bernie, homey didn’t snitch. That’s going to carry a lot weight in the joint.
June 29th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Bruce
I respect you quite a lot based on what I’ve seen on this blog. And I won’t go into a full retort to your position. But one thing – first time offender!? Please. He’s been offending for almost two decades with thousands of victims. Just because he didn’t get caught until now doesn’t change that.
It’s like calling a serial killer with dozens of victims over decades who finally gets caught, a first time offender.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
@Manny
Where I play…Big Papi’s shot would have probably caromed off the warehouse on the other side of Eutaw Street (Camden Yards)…That would have at least got him a gold plaque inscribed in the bricks…
A shot like that would have bounced off the warehouse, taken a bounce off Eutaw Street and probabaly ended up in someone’s pulled pork barbecue sandwich at “Boog’s barb-q” (Boog Powell- our answer to Harmon Killebrew)…
There are “ballparks”…and then there are “baggies”…
June 29th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Bruce-
You never offered what you believe he should have received as a sentence.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
BTW – did you see Adam Jones “rob” Youklis of a homerun tonight at “the Yard”?
June 29th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
@greg
Bruce is asleep, I think, after a day at the salt mines…but I think hios position is that BM got a PARAGRAPH instead of a SENTENCE
June 29th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
@cvienne: Yep, I just had it on here. I don’t watch much TV but I do overpay for the MLB and NFL Ticket. Those are my green shoot offerings to our economy.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
cvienne-
Let’s not wake him then, as he may awaken in some type of REM rage and kill us, although that should allow him to be back at work in a month or so.:>)
June 29th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Speaking of “green shoots”…
Here’s my anecdote for today…
When I went into the gym tonight (Lifetime Fitness – a Minneapolis based product)…There was a written auction for signed sports memorabilia artwork…Here’s the best I can recount based on my memory…
Tiger Woods & Michael Jordan signed (bid up to $800 – in ONE DAY)
Tiger + Jack + Arnold signed (up to $650)
Almost all the rest in the $400 to $250 range including:
Larry Bird (lower end of bidding)
Old Baltimore Colts (popular here)
Ovechkin (very popular)
Crosby (PENS are “hated” & “loved” in this area)
Cal Ripken (suprisingly low)
The Godfather (movie poster signed by all the actors)
Santonio Holmes (some knucklehead bid as much as the above mentioned)
Joe Namath (no bid)…
My take is that overall the bids seem to be about 50% less than last year…Tiger always seems to fetch full price…
June 29th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Bruce – “It is his first offense.” No, it is not, he committed thousands of offenses, this is the first time he was caught. By your logic a mass murderer should not be punished for murders he committed but did not get caught for.
Let me put it to you this way – if this guy took all of your mothers money, money that you know your mother worked her entire life to save, much of which you watched, with love, as her son – you would have a very different opinion on this matter. Now take the above example and multiply is by a thousand. this would probably come a little closer to the real social cost of his crimes.
June 29th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Oops – didn’t read Troy’s post before I posted mine!
June 29th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
@Thor
But then again if you think about it…The decisions of politicians representing the interest of the United States of America (whether they be named Reagan, Bush, Dodd, possibly Obama – or, their appointees Greenspan, Bernanke, Paulson, possibly Summers) have run up a pretty big tab as well…
June 30th, 2009 at 12:25 am
Thor
It’s funny that we both thought of the same analogy.
I also had a thought about how the absolute amount of money doesn’t matter so much as the relative amount for the victim. If all your money is just a few tens of thousands and you’re 7o years old and this theft leaves you destitute with only SS to fall back on, the offense may be considered to be more egregious than taking a multi-millionaire for several hundred thousand. Not that it’s OK to rip off the rich as long as you only take a small percentage of their wealth, but the ruthlessness of the former case is certainly more notable.