I’m inclined to believe he’s just another guy who looked like a genius during the great bull run, but has been exposed since then as being less than such. So I’d take what he says with a big dose of skepticism.

“Investors shouldn’t kid themselves that stocks are cheap – in the sense of being priced to deliver outstanding long-term returns – just because we’ve observed a wicked decline. We’re not even close.

At the March lows, the S&P 500 was priced to deliver long-term returns in the 10-12% range. Certainly not bad, but only modestly above the norm on a historical basis, in an economy that faced (and still threatens to suffer) difficulties well outside the norm. While that might have been the final low, and we can’t rule out further market gains, I still believe that it is a mistake to rule out eventual “revulsion.” I don’t think that we need to match valuations that existed at the 1974 or 1982 lows, but at a multiple of 16 times our current estimate for normalized earnings, suffice it to say that the market is not cheap.”

“Valuation Update: We estimate that the S&P 500 is currently priced to deliver total returns over the next decade in the range of 6.5-9.0%, centered at an expected total return of about 7.8% annually. Stocks are modestly overvalued here, except on metrics that assume a permanent recovery to 2007′s record profit margins (which were about 50% above the historical norm). ”

More here:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090615.htm

A very good read tonight.

LOL :-)

Thanks for being a sport there my friend…

AVOIDANCE isn’t an altogether BAD way to approach things these days…

Hell, I’ll admit firsthand…The fact that I spent the last 30 hours sawing two tons of the “antichrist” version of a honey locust into SNICKERS BARS doesn’t mean that I’m a “God fearing industrialist”…Instead, it means…I’D TAKE ANY DISTRACTION…ANY WHATSOEVER…TO KEEP MY EFFING MIND OFF OF DAILY NEWS FLOWS…

Although I think the Shenendoah “tubers” did a better job than me…Bless their souls…

Unabomber?…Don’t know much about the guy (not that you do either)…I’m vaguely recollecting here… but it seems to me that I was living in Italy (1993 – 2005), during the time that his antics essentially hit the MSM and were eventually brought to a conclusion…

So to put it all into perspective…(per comments I read last week, combined with my ‘chores’ of recent days)…I’m more likely to ED GEIN ( the inspiration behind the Texas Chainsaw Massacre), rather than Kasinsky (at least in my opinion)…

…but BTW…I “torched’ the teeth on my chainsaw this weekend bringing down that honey locust…Next week I not only need them to get replaced, but I’d probably better order a spare chain…

So all of you TBP bloggers are SAFE & SOUND for the time being…& if you think my CAPS LOCKS pre-condition a visit to you whilst you slumber…ur safe for the time being…

…and karen, just after I’d struggled 30 hours with the honey locust lumber…I was dexterous enough to don a pair of scissors and snip off a hearty snatch of arugula leaves…

…rinse…pinch of salt…paint of olive oil…fresh grated parmesian…

LUNCH

Unfortunately, my pleasure is in adopting the Alfred E. Newman perspective “What, Me Worry?”

Except if I were Alfred I would be on a beach somewhere totally removed from this blog.

I’m still working on it. Avoidance. Important things to say. If it’s not a video game or an iPod app, forget it.

Lived in MD once upon a time: Potomac. Made it to Harper’s Ferry. Interesting choice.

It’s all too crazy. Even there.

So for now I’m sticking with SB’s logic