Comments on: Birth Death Adjustment Goosed NFP

By: The Great Depression - Seite 21 - Aktienboard

The Great Depression - Seite 21 - Aktienboard — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 05:45:21 +0000

[...] -345 k werden von allen seiten angezweifelt. haupts

By: Surprise, Head-Scratching Over Last Week’s BLS Number - WANTED Hiring Demand Indicators

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:34:09 +0000

[...] And further analysis of the “Birth Death” model at The Big Picture. [...]

By: Ugly Futures | The Big Picture

Ugly Futures | The Big Picture — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 10:30:27 +0000

[...] which faded by day’s end. My guess why is that the BLS data was looked at askance, as the Birth Death adjustment Goosed NFP. Perhaps that process continues [...]

By: thetanman

thetanman — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:33:36 +0000

I just got a green shoot. A developer wanted to buy my land for $5k/acre last fall, a few days ago called me out of the blue and offered $8k/acre. I think he is afraid of falling behind as we have a mini building boom going on, despite an already massive oversupply. I guess I’ll sell.

By: jc

jc — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:06:15 +0000

Axelrod and Goolsbey were on the Sunday talk circuit talking up team O’B's success with jobs etc

By: jc

jc — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:05:11 +0000

Here’s the benefit of the B/D adjustment:Obama Officials See Hope in Jobless Numbers
June 7 (Bloomberg) — White House officials said they see encouraging signs in the slowing rate of job losses and defended the Obama administration’s handling of the bankruptcy of General Motors Corp.

The economy lost 345,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected and the lowest number since September, the Department of Labor reported June 5. Unemployment rose to 9.4 percent.

“Hopefully, that is a sign that this is turning,” David Axelrod, senior adviser to President Barack Obama, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” television program. “While it’s going to take some time for these unemployment numbers to turn around, for the momentum to completely stop and turn in the other direction, it feels as if we’re moving.”

By: km4

km4 — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:32:43 +0000

A Better Solution for GM
http://kmedge.org/2009/06/a-comedy-of-incompetents.html

Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are likely to be smiling today. Not because of the GM bankruptcy. It would definitely be un-Japanese to gloat.

They’re smiling because the U.S. government thinks all it has to do is follow the management guidance of the White House auto team, give GM lots of money, fire the CEO, get labor concessions, set fuel efficiency standards, urge the company to create hybrids, and competitiveness will be magically restored.

According to The New York Times, this miracle will be wrought by a 31-year-old; a very bright young man who has never set foot in an auto plant, has never run a manufacturing business, and is advising the already laughable “auto rescue team” about running a competitive auto company in a market where Toyota is already whipping their body parts!!!

I started to laugh because I thought this was part of the Jay Leno farewell skit. No one could make this up!

What if Obama gave Y-Combinator 40 Billion Dollars
http://zaid.posterous.com/what-if-obama-gave-y-combinator-40-billion-do

Now for some numbers ( hypothetical ) but you get the point

* 600,000 new startups with 1,020,000 people employed vs
* 125,000 people employed by GM.

There we have it folks…..Obama is all ‘shuck and jive’ when it comes to REAL hope and change !

By: TrembleTheDevil

TrembleTheDevil — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:08:42 +0000

Nice post, so do you stand by your statement from Friday that we’re in “an ordinary but not historic” recession? Or would the B/D adjustments and other considerations make the unemployment numbers pretty freaking historic?

This chart, which I assume is from official numbers and not ones closer to reality, looks fairly historic:

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-decline-from-peak-employment-2009-5

By: jc

jc — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 14:43:31 +0000

OK, a widget assembler making $80K a year has his job shipped to south China so he gets a taxi license and a permit for a roadside hotdog stand, works his ass off and makes $40K a year. The state reports the new licenses and the BLS has the net gain of a job with their B/D alchemy

By: jc

jc — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 14:38:46 +0000

The gummint is piping sunshine up our butts. In a normal world you’d expect about half the prelim gummint numbers to be revised better and half worse but it hasn’t been even close to that with jobs, housing, GDP, I wonder what the composite number is on these revisions. We always get the headline – “Home sales increase”, “Job losses abate”, then the subsequent months revisions show the negative trends continuing.