With the crowded reflation trade showing signs of fatigue, notwithstanding the highest close in Chinese stocks today since July, the FOMC meets for a 2 day meeting and their commentary on the QE side of their monetary policy will either reignite it or further its rest. Will the FOMC follow thru with their existing programs and spend the allocated money on MBS and Treasuries like its Brewster’s Millions (yes the Richard Pryor movie where he had to spend the money) or will they slow them down realizing its backfiring or will they double down and truly monetize the debt. If ex Fed official Mishkin’s editorial in today’s WSJ is any indication, the Fed will not expand its purchases, at least beyond the current plan. Germany’s June IFO was about 1 pt higher than expected and rose to the most since Nov but the components were mixed as current conditions fell a touch while expectations rose to the highest since July ’08.

Category: MacroNotes

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