California Unemployment = 11.5%
As bad as the national unemployment data has been, California’s is much worse:
“California continues to bleed jobs, more so than most of the rest of the country. The national unemployment rate for May was 9.4%, and only four states had higher jobless numbers than California: Michigan at 14.1%, Oregon at 12.4% and Rhode Island and South Carolina, tied at 12.1%.
California, which has 11% of the country’s workforce, accounted for 1 out of every 5 jobs lost last month. The state has been vulnerable to paralyzing inactivity in fields related to real estate, including construction, financial services and home-related retail sales . . .
A trio of economic reports predicted that the upswing won’t happen before early next year. Recent forecasts from the UCLA Anderson School of Management, Chapman University and Beacon Economics, a Los Angeles consulting firm, predict that unemployment in the state will peak between 12.1% and 12.8%, possibly as early as year’s end.”
Given the extent of the Residential Real Estate boom and bust in the golden state, this comes as no surprise . . .
>
Source:
California unemployment rises to record 11.5% in May
Men lose jobs more than women. Only four states have higher unemployment rates than California. The national jobless rate is 9.4%.
Marc Lifsher and Alana Semuels
LATimes, June 20, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-california-jobless20-2009jun20,0,3863292.story
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June 22nd, 2009 at 6:39 am
Mancession?
Bleccch
June 22nd, 2009 at 6:56 am
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/foreclosure-reality-check-16-million-foreclosure-filings-with-5-months-of-data-california-notice-of-defaults-and-foreclosures-skyrocketing/
and, tangentially, related:
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/0619.html
as an aside, John R. Talbott’s new book: “The 86 biggest lies on Wall St.”, or the talk that he gave at a mid-town B&N, covered on C-SPAN2 over the weekend, should be read/seen/heard..
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:24 am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/21/AR2009062101859.html
Recovery’s Missing Ingredient: New Jobs
“Unemployment won’t peak until this time next year, and then it will remain very high through next year,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com. “It won’t get back to full employment until 2013 or 2014. This really speaks to the severity of the job losses that have been absorbed by the economy. They were massive.”
Since the recession took hold in December 2007, the U.S. economy has lost 5.7 million jobs, a rapid decline that caught administration and other economists off guard. In recent months, the velocity of job losses has slowed substantially, which, combined with a rising stock market and increases in consumer spending, has offered hope that a recovery is beginning to take hold.
But employers still cut 345,000 jobs last month, while the nation’s growing working-age population requires the job market to expand by 125,000 to 150,000 a month just to keep the unemployment rate stable.”
…I did learn one valuable lesson over the weekend…when you are slathered up in sunscreen, poison ivy isn’t quite as bad when you are clearing brush..and notice above the conspicuous use of the word “hope”….
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:44 am
Out of every four jobs lost nationwide since the recession began in December 2007, three have been lost by men. Some experts have dubbed the phenomenon a “mancession.”
———————-
How the world has changed in 1 generation.
When I go pick up my kids after school in mid-afternoon, more than half the parents waiting are men. And the recession has not even hit yet in my part of the woods!
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:44 am
[...] economists say 12% you know CA is going to have 15% unemployment Jump to Comments TBP: A trio of economic reports predicted that the upswing won’t happen before early next year. [...]
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:51 am
danm,
remember, when the Soldiers have no confidence, they are, already, defeated..
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:56 am
Hard times – please- can’t possibly be so- Goldman Sachs expecting biggest bonus payout in 140 year history-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/21/goldman-sachs-bonus-payments
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:09 am
BR Says-
“Out of every four jobs lost nationwide since the recession began in December 2007, three have been lost by men.”
women are heavily represented in health care and teaching- recession resistance- additionally, any manufactruing cuts effect men disproportionally since they are heavily represented in manufacturing jobs-manufacturing will not become ascendant again until placing factories in America actually makes economic sense
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:19 am
Time for the government to step up, bite the bullet, and means test prescription weed sales.
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:19 am
If 3/4 of job losses had been women we’d be having congressional investigations now and job programs to address the problem.
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:22 am
Construction workers are still overwhelmingly men. Realtors are largely women – they’re still working – just not making many sales! So their incomes are the same – about zero but only the construction workers count as unemployed!
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:27 am
This is the sand state depression!
Just think of the sand states and the other fast growing states as high beta stocks.
All joking aside CA sounds like they’re on the verge of financial collapse. Maybe some of those TARP paybacks will be redirected to our largest state.
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:29 am
@ BR
“Out of every four jobs lost nationwide since the recession began in December 2007, three have been lost by men. Some experts have dubbed the phenomenon a “mancession.”
—
It’s kind of a roundabout way for this country to get to its equal opportunity and affirmative action quotas I suppose…
I just hope during the “firings”, they keep the “intelligent workers” and not just the “cheapest”…
Pretty soon, Franklin and his “HR” friend will hold the only two jobs in the State of California…
Also…11.4%…Doesn’t that mean that “California Banks” just passed the WORST CASE SCENARIO on the stress tests? Is “stress test 2″ right around the corner?
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:31 am
@js (8:22)
That must mean that ‘catcalls’ and ‘wolf whistles’ at construction sites are down 11.5% too!
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:53 am
To all the white males who lost their jobs recently (and those to come)…don’t despair…
You’ll have Maxine Waters working from her plush Hancock Park mansion adjacent to Wilshire Country Club fighting for you every step of the way!
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:33 am
Cali at 11.5…real number is always double of what they put out!
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:49 am
This recession is all about jobs and always has been. At least we have a President now that won’t embrace and encourage our jobs being off shored. That one thing will be the reason Republicans may never recover from here. If President Obama really does grow jobs again, the Republicans will never recover. I still can’t believe I voted for a man twice *the shrub) that encouraged companies to out source our jobs overseas and then told us how good it was for us. Never again!! I am bitter and so are many.
No I haven’t lost mine, but it could happen any day. For those that just think I am mad over losing my job.
June 22nd, 2009 at 9:52 am
UC cuts coming too.
UC is planning 8% cuts for those making more than $46k a year. Regents are still working on the details, but there can be no good to the employment report from that.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:01 am
ahab,
Bingo. The hardest hit sectors are about 100% male. Lumber, mining, construction ect. And today the deep cyclicals (AA, DD ect) are getting taken apart. We’ll see if it means diddly or not.
Concerned,
BO will do whatever makes money for the big guys. If it creates real wealth building jobs in the US, then it would just be happenstance. Check out of the magical kingdom. Its not dems or reps, its kleptocrats all the way down.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:20 am
By the time the state and local governments are done pushing through over 20 billion in spending cuts during the next fiscal year, California will take another downward leg in a very ugly spiral that can only be described as a depression. Call it another 400,000 jobs lost throughout the economy from the government downsizing as those ugly multiplier effects kick in. Obama’s stimulus is a drop in the bucket.
Don’t forget that when mortgage equity withdrawal peaked in Q4 2006, it represented 9% of personal income nationally. In CA, NV, AZ, and FL, the real bubble states, it was probably somewhere in the range of 12% to 18% of personal income, this incredible finance-induced stream of tax free money that people were borrowing. As that spigot turned off, and then shut down, California lost not only 84% of construction jobs, huge swaths of people in finance, real estate, and insurance, and seven out of a hundred retail jobs.
Now the cuts move into government, education, and health care.
Where will new jobs come from in California?
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:24 am
@thetanman 10:01
Until everyone wakes up and quits blindly voting Dem or Rep we are doomed. I just think the repubs are done for a long time to come. I have never voted Dem and have no plans to unless Obama can really pull a rabbit out of a hat. I will never ever again consider voting Republican. I agree they are both corrupt and not working in the best interest of everyone in the USA.
I do believe BO wants everyone in the US to do well. The shrub was in it for a few and very few.
BO has done more to help the average American in 5 months than Bush did in 8 long disastrous years.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:28 am
@Concerned American (10:24)
“Until everyone wakes up and quits blindly voting Dem or Rep we are doomed…”
then you say
“I will never ever again consider voting Republican”…
So I guess that means you will be “blindly” voting non-Republican…not that anyone really friggin cares…
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:28 am
Correction
California lost not only 84% of construction jobs
Meant 84% of housing starts. Haven’t lost 84% of construction jobs … yet.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:33 am
If a modern-day de Tocqueville did an observational tour of America, without knowing anything about it before hand, he would conclude that:
a) Dogs are the master race, as humans are routinely dragged along behind them on a leash, carrying poop bags to gather up their excretement, and;
b) Males of the human species are the subservient gender, responsible for providing sustenance, but also for child care, cleaning, home maintenance, lawn care, etc. Women work, but just for fun and the clothes, and they get to keep the money they make. Men work too (outside of the home), but have to fork theirs over to the family.
Sorry for my little rant. My wife and I had this conversation this weekend, precipitated, oddly enough by an ad in the NYT for some anti-wife-beating charity. I told her (jokingly) that the world started to go to hell when men were no longer allowed to beat their wives.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:45 am
@curmudgeon (10:33)
…so how was the couch? comfy?
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:47 am
A factoid about retail sales,
If you dig down into the details of this April Rockefeller Institute report, you’ll see that a “national” decrease in retail sales tax reported by the Wall Street Journal is actually a phenomenon driven by the real estate bubble states of CA, FL, and AR. If you subtract the double digit sales tax losses in those states from the national numbers, pull the national “average” loss of 6.2% turns into a loss of 3.2%. in 47 states and a loss greater than 10% in three states.
Forecasts from Chapman and UCLA are extrapolating from business as usual recessions, not realizing that California will start with an economic base that is 10% smaller than it was in 2006.
The finance bubble was absolutely unprecedented, and its bust is far bigger and more widespread than many can comprehend, especially our leaders comfortably ensconced in the suburbs around Washington.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:51 am
@cvienne:
Couch? What couch? The dog gets the couch. I get whatever’s left. It’s sometimes like I’m homeless, even though I have a house that I bought and paid for.
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:56 am
@cvienne …so how was the couch? comfy?
Now THAT’s good comedy!
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:00 am
Curmudgeon Says-
“Dogs are the master race, as humans are routinely dragged along behind them on a leash, carrying poop bags to gather up their excretement”
undoubtedly – see this all the time and it amazes me- if you have enough room to let the dog run- out in the country- understood- but taking them out for daily walks and cleaning their shit as you go- sorry- don’t understand that at all- why people subject themselves to it- since it is self imposed- is a great mystery
“Males of the human species are the subservient gender, responsible for providing sustenance, but also for child care, cleaning, home maintenance, lawn care, etc. ”
all resulting from marriage and female expectations of what a husband/father should be- can just as easily be rejected- don’t have to feel like a Neanderthal to do so
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:14 am
Before anyone takes me too seriously, for the record:
–My dog walks beside me on the leash, and never even considers trying to take a dump on someone’s lawn because it knows better, so I don’t carry poop bags. The dog knows better because if it stops and tries to go poop, it gets a yank on the leash and a swift kick to her backside. Only had to do that about twice, and the dog was cured of the idea that the whole universe was her potty.
–like Ahab says, how expectations involving the husband/wife relationship play out is very subjective…but I just wish sometimes the wife was easy to train as the dog:)
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:14 am
@curmudgeon
I hope you didn’t start off your counterpoint with…
“Jane you ignorant slut…”
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:21 am
@ahab: Some of us haven’t been able to have children (yes, we may adopt but that long, emotional process may scare us away…already had one of those sagas). Without a dog, I think we’d both be bored as hell with our lives and probably wouldn’t smile or laugh nearly as much. For what it’s worth….
I hear you though – - it’s a little strange that we tend to treat our dogs often far better than our fellow citizens these days.
A little anecdote for you – - yesterday the wife and I were at the bandshell at Lake Harriet (yes, with the dog), and saw a little toddler racing over to the parking lot and near the road. Well, nobody seemed to noitce but us that there was nobody (namely Mom or Dad) following him to make sure he didn’t get hurt wandering around near the cars and road. My wife finally went racing after him and grabbed him just as he was venturing into the road. Would have ended in disaster, I think. She wandered around the park with the kid (probably two years old, did not speak English) looking for the parents and finally found them over the hill without a care in the world, meaning they WERE NOT EVEN aware he was gone or were not even looking for him. And this was quite a ways away from where my wife grabbed him. She finally found his sister, who was maybe 12, and asked her if they knew this little guy was off wandering around? She had no idea either. The parents never even came over and said anything or even noticed that my wife had likely saved their child from being injured or worse. We couldn’t believe it.
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:21 am
cvienne-
you’re dating yourself w/ the Akroyd line
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
@curmudgeon (11:14)
“The dog knows better because if it stops and tries to go poop, it gets a yank on the leash and a swift kick to her backside. Only had to do that about twice, and the dog was cured of the idea that the whole universe was her potty.”
–
try teaching that to Pelosi…
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:28 am
@Curmudgeon:
Bud, you need to watch some old Rumpole of the Bailey…he had the right tag for his wife..”The one who must be obeyed!”
…Sleeping under the stars isn’t so bad, though…
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:01 pm
@BnT…yeah, I just think of it as camping out, and it actually seems fun…
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@Curm: Like her or loathe her, this book was ahead of its time. I read it back in the day and actually agreed with much of it……
http://www.nytimes.com/books/99/09/26/daily/092899faludi-book-review.html
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Wonder what the actual rate of unemployment in CA is these days. I have a couple of friends who were laid off over a year ago and neither is collecting unemployment anymore. Nevermind the huge numbers of illegal day workers who were a big part of the economy. Anyone who’s gone to Home Depot or Lowes a few times in the last year can tell you there’s been a massive drop in day laborers. Another population to add in – nannies, gardeners, etc. Where have all of these people gone and what is their absence in the workforce done to add to the economic woes.
JC – I don’t think we’re on the verge of economic collapse. They could very easily cut the deficit here if our politicians weren’t so polarized. The Democrats will not gut social services and the Republicans (including the Governator) will not support tax increases. Eventually they’ll come to some agreement but we’ll go through the same thing again next year, and probably the year after that. Same old same old.
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:18 pm
“Mancession? Bleccch”
I’ve been wondering from an insurance pov .. who determines what/when/if acts of civil war kick in .. and the insurance corp is off the hook for disaster capilatism and Americas rebirth .. green tech and all into the 21st century?
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:20 pm
If we would simply elect a small cute dog as President, most of our problems would be solved!
Arf!
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Mannwich-cession?
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
ps – with the all volunteer military world police force … good business sence too (from the management tier of the GOFP)
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
mannwich-
I hear you- I said I didn’t understand it- and you must know by now- that I don’t understand many things-I was just adding to TC’s observation-
use to own a dog many years ago when I lived in California- great dog- never replaced him after I had him put down when he could no longer walk anymore- so definitely understand an attachment to a dog- but he was pretty much a free roamer country dog
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:18 pm
California Dreaming
California faces a $24 billion deficit despite having raised taxes to address a $40 billion shortfall they thought they addressed only six months ago. Voters have had it and recently repudiated a budget at the polls and now the State is faced with harsh reality. California already has the second highest personal tax rate in the land at 10.55%. NYC is the highest at 12.62% which totals NYS and NYC. 50 to 55% of all personal taxes raised in California comes from 1% of the population and the movie stars can move elsewhere if you push too much. 75% of monies are spent on education, Medicaid, prisons and pensions. The Wall Street Journal noted in an editorial that state wide test scores in math and reading are the second lowest in the land despite teachers’ salaries being the highest. The paper also pointed out that California spends 50% more per prisoner than the national average. Prison quiche must cost a lot.
The rest of the states are struggling as well. The unemployment rate rose in 48 of the 50 states last month. Michigan, with its auto dependence, has a 14.1% unemployment rate. Oregon is second at 12.4% and I always thought Oregon was God’s country. Payrolls in 48 of the 50 states are below the level of one year ago. Drastic state spending cuts are called for and legislators don’t seem to have the fortitude for that. The inclination is to raise taxes but voters are in no mood for higher taxes ever, and especially when incomes are down. The bright idea of turning to Washington for help is going to be a big problem for President Obama. If the car companies can get bailed out how do you tell California to drop dead when the state has 56 electoral college votes as my partner Greg Valliere has often stated. The President’s plate overfloweth!
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
This is one highbrow discussion on the pooping habits of dogs.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:34 pm
@DL: I think that’s one of the signs of the coming apocalypse, no? ;-)
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Vincent Farrell @ 1:18
“The bright idea of turning to Washington for help is going to be a big problem for President Obama. If the car companies can get bailed out how do you tell California to drop dead when the state has 56 electoral college votes…”
Maybe Obama is insane enough to bail out California. But he doesn’t need to… no chance in hell that CA is going to vote Republican in 2012.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Vincent – good post – The prisons here are taking far too much money out of our budget, that exploded when we passed the “three strikes” proposition several years ago. Hopefully now that we’re in the process of decriminalizing pot we may see the number of people incarcerated for it’s possession going down.
Also, one thing to keep in mind with regard to test scores is the massive percentage of non-English speaking students in schools here. I won’t argue that the teachers unions are part of the problem but our low test scores are not as easy as “we pump more and more money into the system and the tests still don’t improve”
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:52 pm
@DL: So if O doesn’t bail out Cali, while bailing out Wall Street and the autos (and doing everything that he can and then some to do so), will tomorrow’s headline be “Obama tells California to Drop Dead?”
Seriously, I’m not advocating bailing out Cali for their stupidity but if we’re going to bail out anyone, why not bail out the states as opposed to failing companies?
O’s legacy could be: He saved Wall Street and the Auto Unions while telling everyone else on Main Street to drop dead.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:54 pm
The political question, it seems, with regards to “bailing out” CA, is whether there’s more harm to Obama (and congress) by pissing off the rest of the country who (let’s face it) generally doesn’t have a lot of love for the state, nor much sympathy for CA and their economic problems.
And they just simply can’t start down that road. There just HAS to be a limit, and bailing out most of the states’ budget problems just goes way over the line. A currency crisis for sure. We’re already close enough to that line as it is.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:57 pm
@Onlooker: That limit should have been reached a LONG TIME ago. That’s the problem with the bailouts. Where do you draw the line? Only after large campaign contributors have gotten theirs?
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
@mannwich
“O’s legacy could be: He saved Wall Street and the Auto Unions while telling everyone else on Main Street to drop dead.”
Obama doesn’t have a problem choosing his own favorites…
After all, he’s accepted an invitation to go see the World Cup…but he doesn’t have time to fit the Pope into his schedule…
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Onlooker – I agree – we got ourselves into this mess by electing these buffoons into office, I think the best thing for us is to let our elective representatives find a way to get us out of this. If we don’t like the solution they come up with we can vote them out of office.
As I’ve said before, the situation we find ourselves in has more to do with the massive dysfunctional political system in the state than anything else. Having the government bail us out now is only going to reward bad behavior. As for the rest of the states hating us I suppose that’s normal a (sadly) normal attitude in this country. We tend to say the same thing about cities and states hit by hurricanes and tornado’s (that’s what you get for living in such a place). Sad, but I think it’s just the way people are – everyone likes to point the finger at states other than their own when it’s convenient to do so, but can’t understand why anyone would feel the same about their own state.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
DL-
you are right- California is a lock f0r 2012- so no worries there regardless of bialout or no bailout of CA
mannwich-
CA refuses to deal with their own budget problems- unwilling to pare down programs or raise taxes- something’s gotta give- and no hard choices will be made if the USG guarantees their debt- CA will continue on the same path to insolvency
onlooker-
I think you hit it on the head- by bailing out California- Obama will have aliented the folks in the rest of the country- especially damaging in those states where he just managed to squeak out a win
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
@ahab: I don’t disagree, but if Cali melts down, that could have disastrous consequences on the rest of the country. The worst of the ugliness lies ahead.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
“The prisons here are taking far too much money out of our budget, that exploded when we passed the “three strikes” proposition several years ago.”
@Thor: true enough regarding 3 Strikes and other examples of poorly conceived mandatory sentencing laws, but the bigger problem is the way CCPOA has had this state by the short and curlies for 25 years. CA pays it’s prison guards way more than any other state (or the federal govt for that matter) and about 40% above the national median if I recall correctly. This speaks to one thing only, the political power of the union, which dovetails nicely with your above observation about a “massively dysfunctional political system”.
You can say that again…
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Manwich – yeah, that’s what I keep thinking. God forbid, if we do melt down many other states are right behind us. Clearly I still have faith we can work our way out of this mess but you never know. Remember NYC in the 70′s. People were predicting the end of the city as well as it’s dominance of the financial world. Look at it now. I know, the situation and times are very different than with CA this time around, but don’t count us out just yet.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:35 pm
@Thor: True, but things WERE pretty bad in NYC until around the late 80′s/early 90′s. Not apocalyptic bad but bad enough. We could be heading back to those days again in many cities, including NYC, LA, and SF, among others.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
@Mannwich re: “That limit should have been reached a LONG TIME ago.”
No doubt, I agree. The only limits we have are being imposed by our creditors. As we’ve witnessed being played out in the last few weeks and in the bond market. Our credit card issuer is getting nervous and is about to revoke our line. Only that will stop the QE and debt pile up. We can’t restrain ourselves, it seems.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Mannwich – yes very true. My guess (total shot in the dark guess) for CA is that they’ll basically tax and cut programs massively to get out of this mess. We’ll have a period (years? decades?) of lean times during which the state will switch from a huge Democratic majority to a more balanced or perhaps Republican leaning (of the governator type) political system where spending is strictly controlled while social issues remain more liberal.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@Thor: For your sake, I hope they don’t cut too much out of the police force. You’re probably going to need them.
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Mannwich – you and me both. I don’t think there’s a lot of political will to cut police funding (so far). Our Police Chief here in LA is Bill Bratton, the old NYC police commissioner. He’s and the mayor have strongly pushed for the hiring of thousands more peace officers, the move has been quite popular. Crime has been going down slowly in LA since I moved here 5 years ago. Recently they have had to scale back their hiring goals and this has not been popular with the general public. I know crime tends to go up when times are tough, we haven’t seen much of that yet and I’m hoping if we do fall off a cliff crime won’t go through the roof. Or are you thinking of a completely different kind of social unrest? ;-)
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Thor
That show Southland sure doesn’t reflect well on L.A. from what I’ve seen. I don’t watch much TV but the wife does and I’ve seen bits of it. Just seems rather gloomy and quite the downer, reflecting the seamy side of things there, no doubt. It seems they even pit a rather washed out color filter off some sort on the whole thing, making it rather depressing looking. I’m sure the Chamber of Commerce just loves it! :)
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:52 pm
[...] A trio of economic reports predicted that the upswing won’t happen before early next year. Recent forecasts Read more at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/california-unemployment-115/ [...]
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Troy – Hah, never heard of the show, don’t watch much TV outside TLC, Discovery, Science, etc. I understand what you’re talking about though. Before I moved here from SF my impression of LA was that it was a very drab, mini-mall sort of place. After living here 5 years I can tell you that although there are parts of the metro area is like that (mainly the poorer sections) most of LA is beautiful.
LA proper is made up of leafy (no such thing as water conservation here) boulevards with street after street of old craftsman and spanish style homes. The Hollywood hills are also gorgeous. Places like Laguna Beach, Pasadena, Thousand Oaks, Malibu, are all also very very nice. Like any city, it really depends on where you live. I remember being shocked the first time I went to NYC because it didn’t look at all like what I’d imagine it would have from what they show on TV.
For a better idea of what it really looks like here, watch the news coverage of the fires this summer once they start ;-)
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:01 pm
PS – I’m not as bullish on LA as it might sound – I live 11 miles from work and it often takes me an hour and a half to commute. I’d move out to Palm Springs right now if I could find a job!
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:15 pm
And a collective moan is let out from the 200 day MA crowd….There was this guy (on Bloomberg) salivating on Friday about the “golden cross,” that magical moment when the 50 day and 200 day moving average cross to the upside…how bullish it all is….good luck with all that. While we were crossing above that 200d SMA, some of use were pointing out how its prone to plenty of “false breakouts” because it’s an overused indicators by the masses, and that if you wanted to use a moving average, try the 200day EMA or try an average based on a calendar (which intuitively makes more sense), like the 52 week M.A.
It should be noted that the 200day EMA was tested but never taken out and the 52 week MA was “sniffed.”
In terms of EW analysis, in the most bullish case, we’re in the middle of c-wave that targets 874 at a minimum, but it sure does look and feel like a third wave right now….which means we’re looking the strong possibility of 841 in the near term….(1.618*1=3). Puts performed “ok” today….
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Andy -
there was a link on this site showing a dude going over charts and I believe he was talking about (off of memory becasue I am not at home where my notes are) a 20 week moving average crossing the 50 week moving average- and if crossed by 1% or greater- was proven to be almost an infallible indicator to get in or get out-
guess my question is when he says 50 week MA- I am assuming that is the same as a 250 day MA- correct- and since he did not specify- assumed it was a simple MA-
have you heard of this and is my assumption correct that a 50wk = 250 day?
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:27 pm
It seems to me that emerging markets and commodities are the canary in the coal mine lately. Both are starting to head south as investors flee the building. We may not test the March lows any time soon, but we are headed south for a bit here, I think. Eventually the March lows WILL be tested.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Mannwich – let’s hope so – my FAZ holdings finally went into the green today!
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Mine too, Thor. Also have SRS. Taking another stab at that one. Actually took some of my FAZ off the table but will reload on any significant pullbacks.
Wouldn’t it be almost too perfect if we sold off now that many of the TARPed banks have paid back the dough? Main Street will be just thrilled to lose their shirts again and continue to scuffle with employment, mortgage, cc, and student loan payments, while the guys/gals at Goldman and others on Wall Street are pocketing record bonuses. The big O is playing with fire here.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Manwich – not sure who here was predicting that the market would go south once a lot of the TARP money was repaid. Seems like that was a prescient call. The cynic in me is imagining the conversations going on in the power circles – “OK quick, let’s sell all this crap now that everyone is distracted by this Iran drama!”
Where is Cvienne? I always enjoy his recaps of the market after it closes. Looks like his predicted pullback might be a few days ahead of schedule.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
@Thor: Many here have been predicting that very scenario to play out. The Fed needs money to go back into Treasuries to keep rates down. What better way to do that than to have the power players rotate out of stocks and into Treasuries to keep rates down?
June 22nd, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Ahab-
In the early 2000′s I worked with system that overlayed exponential fibbonacci MA’s on top of each other (21,34,55,89,144,233….). The guy who introduced the system had buy/sell signals based on when a faster MA crossed over a slower one…so the 89d crossing the 233d might be a buy or sell signal. I used that example because it’s very close to 20week/50 week average you cited.
Those sorts of indicators are “decent” at keeping you in the middle part of major trends, if we happen to ever get into major trend again. What I don’t like about using moving averages is that towards the end of trends, the market will accelerate away from the MA line before the big inflection point and inevitable huge reversal. So, if you’re strictly waiting for the crossing of certain MAs, you could be sitting on the wrong side of the trade for a while. Obviously, these MA indicators are terrible in choppy/trendless markets!
My theory is to keep a large arrays of tools in the ol’ tool kit and try to employ them all to come up with a single best answer. I don’t love MA analysis, but I don’t ignore it. Even worn down antiquated tools sometimes get used for a particular job.
June 22nd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Thanks Andy-
wasn’t planning on using the strategy, but I did find 20/50 wk interesting- an old school method that supposedly works- but keeps you out of the market long periods of times- also-
assumed that a 50 week was the same as a 250 day- just wanted to hear it from someone else
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Andy
Re: MA strategies. You see a lot of advocating for 200 MA that looks back at the last 27 years (i.e. back to the start of the big bull) and shows how wonderfully it works. But that just takes into account a period of time where the market was strongly trending. If you look back at the last secular bear, ’66-’82, it’s a much different picture with very different results due to the choppy market.
That’s the kind of market that I think it’s very apparent that we should expect for quite a few years (i.e. the rest of this secular bear). So that methodology is going to frustrate many people no doubt. It’ll no doubt whipsaw them a lot, getting them in and then out at lower levels (like it just did, for instance), and vice versa. It’ll take quite a while to shake out the secular bull thinking that still predominates. And then it’ll be time for a new one! :)
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:02 pm
@ Andy T
“There was this guy (on Bloomberg) salivating on Friday about the “golden cross,” that magical moment when the 50 day and 200 day moving average cross to the upside…how bullish it all is”
I guess his GOLDEN CROSS, tirned into a GOLDEN SHOWER…
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:23 pm
@Thor (4:36) @Manny
I’m back…If you’re reading this old thread late…RECAP AS FOLLOWS…
I’ve been playing in the options markets lately…Friday I bought S&P “puts”…I bought the August 84 puts at 1.65…This morning I sold them at 2.11…Once again, I sold too early, but I don’t hang around these markets much when I have a winner on my hands…
Today, I bought SRS just after the open…(20.60)…I’m holding onto that, but I also took a half position off of SDS & hedged it long on SSO…(so I’m basically neutral on that trade for the time being)…
I expect the following…
I can’t really say what will happen on the open tomorrow (but there’s a very good chance of a positive open, or, a quick half hour selloff followed by a pretty good reversal…the lowest I’d expect to see, if I remember, would be around 887, but I’ve been away since noon (I made all my moves in the AM) so I’ll have to check…
I think this market will actually RETRACE some of todays losses over the next 10 days…Open on the year was 903 on the S&P, so I believe tht even the big houses will carry the market a few rounds here to close the 1H’09 ‘flattish’…
A FIBO retrace back to the high is now in the 925-932 range…I think we’ll make some half assed attempt to get there (considering you have the end of quarter – first few days – and a holiday weekend to make one last push upwards)…I’d expect a failure, but I’m keeping a lot of my remaining powder dry until I see that move)…
At this point, I’d pretty much say the market will fail by either July 2nd, or July 6th…
And BTW, Thor…it was ME who made the comment about GS & JPM paying back the TARP…I’ve been on that theme since April…
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:31 pm
…and to put a TARGET on the “failure”…
I wouldn’t be shocked to take out the 666 low by mid-August, or make a 572-576 print by mid-Spetember…
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:40 pm
Cvienne – Still reading and thanks. Most of what you said went right over my head but I do get the general idea of what you’re saying. Looks like it’s going to be an interesting summer – and here I thought we’d have to wait until the fall for the real fun to begin!
June 23rd, 2009 at 7:50 am
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