Comments on: Can the Fed Execute a Perfect Landing ?

By: Lord

Lord — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:17:04 +0000

Shouldn’t Too Hot have Stocks rise red; Stocks fall red is a contradiction.

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:05:59 +0000

“Black swans, at least according to Mandelbrot, tend to cluster”

Not even necessary. The issue that people forget that time is eternal and that p(squared) is therefore > 0.
In addition, if the black swans are not truly independent, then there may be a higher probability of clusters.
Obviously, subprime, Alt-A, CRE are not independent black swans.

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:52:46 +0000

continue to decline…

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:52:07 +0000

Housing prices will continue to supply in the absence of Zimbabwe style printing. Supply and demand.
The debt mountain cannot be levitated indefinitely, the interventions will only delay the collapse.

As mentioned above, a semi-controlled crash, where a few people walk away intact.

By: constantnormal

constantnormal — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:06:59 +0000

Seems to me that the diagrams are missing an important element — the intervention/manipulation of the markets (stocks, bonds, commodities, dollar) by various “interested parties”.

With trading activity as low as it is, you don’t need murky conspiracy theories to see movement of the markets.

PIMCO and GS are just as capable of tilting the table in their favor as is the Treasury or the Fed, and do so on a daily basis. The “normal” end-of-day upward spike is proof enough of that.

I don’t think that this sort of activity alters the outcome, but it does change the timeline.

So in addition to attempting to land the jet in heavy fog, with mountains on one side and the ocean on the other, we have the added burden of gremlins on the wings, monkeying around with the control surfaces.

Oh — and the pilot is on his first flight in this type of aircraft.

Oh flight attendant! More booze and snacks please, I have my credit card ready.

By: » Economic News Odds and Ends 8 June 2009 Redfish Emerging Markets.com: Helping Good Investors Make Better Decisions

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:07:37 +0000

[...] Can the Fed Execute a Perfect Landing? – The Big Picture [...]

By: Entrepreneur

Entrepreneur — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:05:09 +0000

“Can the Fed Execute a Perfect Landing?”

- No.

By: Moss

Moss — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:17:32 +0000

The problem is relying on the Fed to land. Once on the ground we should revoke the flying license.
Since abolishing the Fed and other Central bankers is not realistic within our political confines something must be done so that this institution can no longer manipulate money via interest rates and reserve requirements. I am not sure what but something. This boom, bust BS is no way to run an airline.

By: Marcus Aurelius

Marcus Aurelius — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:06:57 +0000

For a dead cat, every “landing” is perfect. It’s impossible fore something to crash incorrectly. Perfect 10, every time.

By: Can the Fed Execute a Perfect Landing?

Can the Fed Execute a Perfect Landing? — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:05:40 +0000

[...] Courtesy of The Big Picture [...]