Consumer Confidence/Mortgage applications
The MBA said weekly mortgage applications rose 6.6% as refi’s rose 5.9% and purchases gained 7.3% as the average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 5.44%, down 13 bps from two weeks before. The gain in refi’s though comes on the heels of an almost 50% drop over the past month. The purchase component rose to the highest since April 10th, likely still being helped out by the $8,000 home buying tax credit and an additional $10,000 credit in CA. ABC weekly confidence fell 4 points to -53 and is just within 1 point of matching its all time record low dating back to 1985. The Personal Finance component did in fact fall to a record low, dropping a sharp 8 points on the week as ABC said “spiking gas prices have added insult to recessionary injury.”
Peter Boockvar
June 24th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
i’ll say it again … these statistics are uninterpretable unless they are presented in the context of lending policy. the drop in interest rates could be a bid to refinance with higher quality applicants, or to lure customers who face more stringent credit requirements.
consumer confidence … yes, we appear to be in a recession historically as bad, or at worst no more than slightly worse, than the reagan recession. and we all lived through that to see the longest biggest greatest bubble in economic history.
since you mention it … “spiking” gas prices are a gift from the gods. if gas prices can go up and stay up enough to prevent a roaring recovery, and not push down hard enough to prevent a continuous but very meager growth, we might actually be able to wedge our way into a sustainable restructuring (transport, energy policy and conservation) and auto engines that are not blast furnaces on wheels.
consumers, not politicians, need to see the light.