Comments on: Consumer Confidence/Mortgage applications http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/consumer-confidencemortgage-applications/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:03:21 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: drollere http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/consumer-confidencemortgage-applications/comment-page-1/#comment-186251 drollere Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:40:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/consumer-confidencemortgage-applications/#comment-186251 i'll say it again ... these statistics are uninterpretable unless they are presented in the context of lending policy. the drop in interest rates could be a bid to refinance with higher quality applicants, or to lure customers who face more stringent credit requirements. consumer confidence ... yes, we appear to be in a recession historically as bad, or at worst no more than slightly worse, than the reagan recession. and we all lived through that to see the longest biggest greatest bubble in economic history. since you mention it ... "spiking" gas prices are a gift from the gods. if gas prices can go up and stay up enough to prevent a roaring recovery, and not push down hard enough to prevent a continuous but very meager growth, we might actually be able to wedge our way into a sustainable restructuring (transport, energy policy and conservation) and auto engines that are not blast furnaces on wheels. consumers, not politicians, need to see the light. i’ll say it again … these statistics are uninterpretable unless they are presented in the context of lending policy. the drop in interest rates could be a bid to refinance with higher quality applicants, or to lure customers who face more stringent credit requirements.

consumer confidence … yes, we appear to be in a recession historically as bad, or at worst no more than slightly worse, than the reagan recession. and we all lived through that to see the longest biggest greatest bubble in economic history.

since you mention it … “spiking” gas prices are a gift from the gods. if gas prices can go up and stay up enough to prevent a roaring recovery, and not push down hard enough to prevent a continuous but very meager growth, we might actually be able to wedge our way into a sustainable restructuring (transport, energy policy and conservation) and auto engines that are not blast furnaces on wheels.

consumers, not politicians, need to see the light.

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