Comments on: Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate”

By: Extended Benefits and Exhaustion Rate (Updated) | The Big Picture

Extended Benefits and Exhaustion Rate (Updated) | The Big Picture — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:00:52 +0000

[...] benefits — are pretty daunting. I mentioned this to Doug Kass last week, who referenced our prior post on the subject at Real Money, and it caused quite a [...]

By: More Exhaustees Coming | The Big Picture

More Exhaustees Coming | The Big Picture — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 20:30:23 +0000

[...] Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” (June 22nd, 2009) [...]

By: Unemployment claims are up again. - Business, Finance, and Investing - City-Data Forum

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:01:42 +0000

[...] i agree, good luck myrc60 and hope things go well for you. as far as exhausting unemployment, people might want to look at this chart. Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” | The Big Picture [...]

By: Credit Card Chargeoffs vs Exhaustion Rate | The Big Picture

Credit Card Chargeoffs vs Exhaustion Rate | The Big Picture — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:49:28 +0000

[...] Monday, we looked at the impact of the Exhaustion Rate on Continuing Unemployment Claims (See Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” and Exhausted Claims part II). Those charts and tables made it clear that Continuing Unemployment [...]

By: Where’s the Outrage? » Fix Economy then balance budget

Where’s the Outrage? » Fix Economy then balance budget — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:26:00 +0000

[...] as rosy as we think. It appears that there are evidence that many of these Americans that are unemployed are now running out of unemployment benefits. Therefore they cannot seek further jobless benefits. By the way, where are these jobs coming [...]

By: June 23 - MySpace to cut 300 international jobs - Mich. State U may cut 590 - Harvard dismissing 275 - May home sales increase 2.4%, but miss expectations - May mass layoffs tie record high | The Layoff List

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:39:55 +0000

[...] of unemployment claims than a result of people finidng new work. Here’s a discussion from Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” | The Big Picture and Exhausted Claims part II | The Big Picture, which shows how unemployment claims are being [...]

By: cvienne

cvienne — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:41:16 +0000

I see no posts for the last 2 hours so I’ll make a final one…

BR likes to use Friday Night Jazz…I’ll use Monday Night “New Wave”…to suggest that the action today provided an actual 2nd volley…While a retrace of some of todays losses are likely over the next 10 days (until 7/2 – 7/6)…I’ll leave you all with the following lyrics to contemplate…

If you smell the smoke
You don’t need to be told
What you got to do…

Yet there’s a certain breed
So very in between
They’d rather take a vote…

Running short on time
Still they can’t decide
But we already know…

That we are here to go
We are here to go
We are here to go
We are here to go
We are here to GO…

What is really mine
Who’s at the top of the pile
Where does he draw the line?…

Let them figure it out
Go on and step across
Just remind yourself…

That we are here to GO…

When it grows too long
The tail wags the dog
The hand that bites gets fed…

Troubled multiply
The crowd begins to cry
For some common sense…

Let them all dig in
When the odds are no win
Head for the nearest door…
‘CAUSE WE ARE HERE TO GO

Lyrics courtesy “Devo” (go download the song for some fun)
DEVO/SHOUT/1984

By: AmenRa

AmenRa — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:44:12 +0000

@ahab

Using the numbers from a telephone U382533=U f*&ked. QED.

By: ben22

ben22 — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:33:40 +0000

Ahab,

Bullish sentiment being high and being at extremes are two very different things. I just try to do trades when the probability is far in my favor. I’m almost certain you had all time record levels of sentiment in October 2007. At the March bottom I think there were about 6% bulls. That’s extreme. You saw the same extremes on the dollar sentiment recently. To be a little more specific on the dollar, you can see a clear 5 wave up pattern from July 15 of last year in the dollar index that ends late in the year , I’m sure you’ve seen me try to lay out the dollar bullish thesis, to see it in action, as credit deflation was really taking hold last year the dollar had a very large rally while everything else went down.

The dollar index shot lower at the very end of the year coupled with a stock rally into Jan, then the dollar moved up early this year while stocks tanked peaking out around the March bottom then the drop as we move up since then in stocks. Among many other things you again had the extreme sentiment at the March bottom in stocks. Fast forward to now, A few weeks back Peter B had put up a post specifically about the fibbo retrace the dollar had done right around the time you had the extreme high bearish levels in the dollar. This was also when there was a lot of buzz about AAA status being lost in the US and the first loud discussion on the dollar being replaced or being crushed by inflation. Also when we just started to see the extreme bullish levels in stocks on a more consistent basis.

Hope I’m not rambling here but the point is:

Of course the timing is important but in these cases you see the all the same markets idea. Nothing is ever a slam dunk but in these cases the probability was in your favor if you were going the other way of the herds. In my case I’m not day trading as much as I’m trying to get the bulk of my portfolio into a trend before it starts.

By: cvienne

cvienne — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:56:59 +0000

@ahab

“I have expected a sell off quite a few times that never materialized”…

Patience my friend…The smart guys had a bunch of rabbits that they’ve been able to pull out for 4 months now…They ran out of rallies two peaks ago (but still have the attention of the public)…

One last rally (from the depths of worry – co-inciding with the end of 1H’09)…

No new highs this time…CURTAINS…LIGHTS OUT…Next stop, S&P 572-576