On Monday, we looked at the impact of the Exhaustion Rate on Continuing Unemployment Claims (See Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” and Exhausted Claims part II). Those charts and tables made it clear that Continuing Unemployment Claims were dropping not due to folks getting jobs, but simply using up all of their benefits.

Wednesday, we learned of a) record credit card chargeoffs and Increasing minimum Credit Cards payments from 2% to 5% at Chase.

Now, lets see what happens if we can put those two together:

Unemployment Exhaustion Rates and Credit Card Charge Offs



I suspect we can do the same studies with Unemployment Rates also .  . .


Hat tip Shawn!

Category: Credit, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

280 Responses to “Credit Card Chargeoffs vs Exhaustion Rate”

  1. Thor says:

    All – Oh I’m sure it was a knock-off, I just thought it was telling that even people who are so poor that the government buys their food want to be seen with a Louie Vuitton bag.

    Ben22 – no, I don’t have a mohawk – or a feux-hawk for that matter. Just very short. I know what you mean about work appropriate style. I have a few tats though, luckily they’ve now become “work appropriate” here in LA.

  2. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Market up and buying the long bond too?

    As Vinny Barbarino would have said, “I’m so confused!”

  3. call me ahab says:

    so Lennar’s sales numbers were up- as was Bed Bath & Beyond’ numbers (after the BK of their main competitor)-so outside of that-

    why is everyone wetting themselves?

  4. cvienne says:


    Ben you’re going to love this…

    ‘Dangerous Time’ to Avoid Stocks, CLSA’s Napier Says


    Was he that guy in the suspenders at your meeting the other day?

  5. karen says:

    cvinne, i do use canvas bags for my groceries… and i don’t buy water in plastic bottles, fyi : ) first class to italy is well over $2k : )

    ben22, i would be happy to assist you with further information. last year, i bot my sons’ paul smith striped card holders when school ended, smaller than a wallet but holds bills, too. Or did you want a men’s purse? try salvatore ferragamo… and don’t forget ebay..

  6. cvienne says:


    First class FOR ME to Italy is free because I have so many frequent flier miles (over 1.6 million)…

    Sorry, I just ASSUMED…

  7. I-Man says:

    I prefer the purple asparagus rubber bands… stacked with 5s and 10s with a couple benji’s on the outside…


  8. karen says:

    That ‘Dangerous Time’ to Avoid Stocks was spectacular! I’d like to wave that in a few faces, and tell them to stay out of the market just the same : ) Preaching to the choir in my case, of course.

  9. cvienne says:


    Starp a few of these between those purple asparagus rubberbands…



  10. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    Cash-Strapped California to Issue IOU’s

    I owe you
    You owe me
    We’re just one big family…(my kids used to watch Barney)

    “State Controller John Chiang says he will be forced to issue the “registered warrants—also known as IOUs” starting July 2 unless an immediate budget solution is passed quickly.”

    Payment of the IOU’s will be in Zimbawe sovereign funds…..

  11. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Ooops…I see you guys have been talking about this already…my bad.

  12. manhattanguy says:

    I stopped using my credit card 2 years ago before the financial mess started. Even if I do use occasionally (for car rentals), I pay off on time. I am the worst target customer for credit card companies. I only use my debit card and cash in my everyday transaction. I take my reusable bag for groceries (just like Karen). I wish more people use them and not use plastic bags.

  13. call me ahab says:


    thanks for the link- guy seems to be all over the place on his predictions- inflation, delfation- one line I didn’t buy was-

    “After a few years of gains “the Fed will launch its final attack on inflation and it will take us into a fairly terrible situation. They’ll let go and we’ll head for inflation.”

    why a final attack on inflation? maybe they want inflation- and- what “terrible situation”? – high interest rates?

    so if the Fed does it’s final attack- where was the intital attack? Than he goes on to say-

    “While many investors are consumed with the rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and money supply, the ongoing contraction of the household balance sheet is a far more pronounced event that renders deflationary risks the more predominant near-term risk,” the economist wrote in a June 19 report. “The rally really looks fatigued.”

    man- this dude is all over the map- which is it- deflation or inflation

  14. I-Man says:

    @ manhattanguy:

    Seriously… do you know what the credit card industry lovingly refers to customers like you as?


    I’m not making that up either. If you dont run a balance, they call you a deadbeat. Fascinating.

  15. call me ahab says:


    commendable- I still use the plastic bags because I re-use them as my garbage bags- call me cheap- but I am not going to pay for plastic bags to put garbag in

  16. dead hobo says:

    cvienne Says:
    June 25th, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    ‘Dangerous Time’ to Avoid Stocks, CLSA’s Napier Says

    No disagreement on the inflation, only how it will show up this time. State of the art financial engineering requires inflation to not appear in anything that would resemble a Phillips Curve or wage-push cost increases. This would require central banks to raise rates and soak up liquidity to fight textbook inflation. This is your father’s inflation. Not ours.

    We get to see it in the form of asset bubbles, which nobody important can see until they explode. Then central banks will have more to do by fixing the problems they just caused.

    We will see inflation, but not in the way you expect. We’ll probably have another real estate bubble in a few years, but without the securitization problems. This will help pay for extortionate oil and food prices, which are also due to central bank inflation. A new housing bubble will ‘pay’ for inflation, but, magically, it won’t really be inflation. It will be invisible asset bubbles. The new value will be used to pay for invisible second round effects from things excluded from core CPI. These payments will come from a new round of home refinancing.

    This is our likely future in maybe 3 to 5 years. Just like the last one. But without the CDO problem.

  17. cvienne says:


    “I still use the plastic bags because I re-use them as my garbage bags- call me cheap- but I am not going to pay for plastic bags to put garbag in”

    Congratulations – you have all taken the FIRST STEP…

    Now the NEXT step is to figure out that MOST TRASH AIN’T TRASH…About 80% of what you toss in the garbage (from rotting vegetables – to egg shells – to coffee grinds – to paper) is reuseable…

    You toss it into a compost bin and it provides the RICHEST nutrient base to the food you grow (which saves you trips to the supermarket – meaning you don’t burn gas from your car)…

    How long is going to take b4 you people stop thiking of me as some kind of space alien?…

  18. call me ahab says:

    dh Says-

    “These payments will come from a new round of home refinancing. ”

    are you suggesting the re-emergence of the equity line- equity withdrawals to pay for basic living expenses?

    I don’t buy that at all- that would take incredibel foresight to take money out- set it aside- and draw down to pay for food and energy- people would typically expect those type of expenses to be covered by their wages

  19. cvienne says:

    SRS might be a buy right here on the close…

  20. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    I used to watch X-Files…some of the aliens were actually rather normal, at least they’d fit in here in East Tennessee…

    Long as you don’t have a tail and two horns…

  21. CNBC Sucks says:

    Bruce – you are my favorite poster today. We did talk about the IOUs, but they actually deserve their own thread or eight. The IOUs to me are the single most telling tangible development of how bad things are since this whole economic meltdown began. Stock prices come and go. The Fed expands and contracts monetary supply. But it’s not often that a state issues its own legal tender. Sure, California did it in 1992, but that was before a huge tech boom. I don’t see a new tech boom coming.

  22. manhattanguy says:

    @cviene: i have a compost bin going here too. I plan to take it to my father in laws july 4th w.e to use in his farm.

  23. call me ahab says:

    strong close- opposite of what I had hoped for

  24. cvienne says:


    Good man!

  25. dead hobo says:

    call me ahab Says:
    June 25th, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    are you suggesting the re-emergence of the equity line- equity withdrawals to pay for basic living expenses?

    Actually, yes. Home refinancing and the last asset bubble helped finance and institutionalize commodity inflation. People were feeling so affluent from stock market gains and increasing home values they ignored rising oil prices to a large degree. In essence, they could afford it and it ‘seemed’ natural to go up, after all. Now we’re stuck with it unless Uncle Stupid grows a backbone.

    The same psychological effect will happen if home prices reignite. High end consumption will also take off if people fall for it again, which it likely.

    On the other hand, if what I described is full of crap, then that must mean people won’t fall for it again and the stock market is off limits for everyone except computers, day traders who feel lucky, and rich stupid Uncles who provide necessary liquidity when required. It also means dismal times are ahead unless real incomes improve, as opposed to stock market inflationary ‘wealth effects’ or housing inflationary ‘wealth effects’ cause people to spend more than they should.

    Inflation has to go somewhere. Wages are off limits. This leaves prices, which are defined as commodities and, likely, houses. I think Uncle Stupid will continue to push the problem off to the future via financial engineering and happy talk news.

    Later, a Republican will eventually win the White House and Congress. Then we will use wars as means to pay for current excesses.

  26. pmorrisonfl says:

    @cvienne, and per an earlier segment of this thread…

    Composting, # acres on your farm, ways and means of the literate small-footprint life you’re carving out for yourself and your family… these are questions I have that I know don’t fit on the TBP comment threads… but consider blogging or commenting on such things. I’m still collection and trying to absorb the ‘how to trade’ concepts so generously shared by leftback, karen, ben22, MEH, I-Man and others, but you’ve definitely got a pool of knowledge even more valuable and vital.

    I have a plain old wallet, but I’m definitely more ‘purple rubber band’ than Louis Vutton when it comes to stuff I want around me.

  27. I-Man says:

    Long purple rubber bands.

    Short ridiculous end of day pumps in XLF, SPY, & IYR.

  28. Christopher says:

    Well hell evienne….I’ll bite.

    Where are the North and South Poles gonna be??

    We’re looking at buying a small farm in 3 years or so….probably NE quadrant of OH….lots of natgas and fresh water. Family ties and strong value….although I wish it had some of those WV mountains. You’re in some beautiful country over there.

  29. call me ahab says:

    I-Man @ 4:13-


  30. Thor says:

    Bruce – RE: CA. guess I was wrong :-(

    Let’s see if they can beat the record (two months) of IOU’s from 1992. The only thing that stopped it then was banks refusing to accept them as payment anymore.

  31. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    My only brother lives in Los Altos…I’ll have to give him a call and see what he thinks of the IOU business…(I also like to get a rise out of him about the California government)…he thinks Pelosi is the space alien…

  32. cvienne says:


    I’ll continue to do as much as I can…But this ISN’T my blog and I only offer my ideas in which ways I can mingle them with the threads that are already going…

    As you have probably been able to determine…I get a lot of criticism EVEN HERE on these ideas…I admit that it “sounds” like it’s coming from the tin foil hat section, but I can assure I’m a sane person…

    I figured out a long time ago that there was no SUSTAINABILITY to the American lifestyle…The brief story is this…

    - In the past, empires were built on the backs of SLAVE labor.
    - America started off that way, then decided to abolish slave labor.
    - America actually basically CONTINUED slave labor (on the backs of immigrants & small children) throughout the industrial revolution.
    - Then America found itself as the largest industrial exporter as the rest of the world fought World Wars.
    - America was forced eventually to join that fight.
    - Eventually, America emerged as the ‘de facto’ winner of those wars and thereby commanded access to cheap global resources for many generations.
    - It built itself a propserous FRONT as it depleted those resources from abroad.
    - Along came a time where Americams had CONSUMED most of what was necessary…In order to continue to grow, it had to establish a system of new markets.
    - New markets require more trade, and so not only did America need cheap materials to prosper, it also needed CHEAPER labor (so ‘slavery’ was exported)…
    - If you continue to run the above scenario (from the British Empire – to the USA – to China/India/or Brazil in the future, you run into a situation where there will be NO MORE RESOURCES at some point…

    So either we play this out until the end (and kill ourselves by doing so in terms of overpopulation versus scarce food & water)…

    Or, we start living in a different way (where less is consumed – and more is made renewable)…

    It’s not just ENERGY…It’s ‘pollution’, and mainly it’s WATER & IRRIGATION…

    The next World War will be fought over WATER RESOURCES…

    I’ve gotta go now so this is my last post of the evening (until perhaps very late)…

  33. DeDude says:

    Personally I am one of those (as they call them) “deadbeats” that pay my balance every month. However, I will never get a Chase credit card, because I would not want to go to hell for the immorality of supporting such bastards.

  34. Thor says:

    Bruce – I grew up just north of Los Altos (San Mateo). Your brother must be doing very well for himself to afford to live there.

    In the future, please don’t ever mention Nancy Pelosi in my presence. I remember her from when she was only in local politics. I’m sorry we’ve inflicted her on the nation. In our defense, she is an Easterner ;-)

  35. CNBC Sucks says:

    “you run into a situation where there will be NO MORE RESOURCES”

    I assume you are not a Libertarian, cvienne?

  36. cvienne says:


    Wait…I lied…(I just caught your post as I posted my last comment)…

    New NORTH POLE will be about 1200 miles off the coast of Chile (just under wht is presently the Tropic of Capricorn)…

    New SOUTH POLE will be very near the region of the Himilayas…

    It’s hard to see this on a standard two dimensional map…You need to have globe in your hands to see it visually…

  37. cvienne says:


    Sorry…”no more resources” is a bad way of putting it…

    It’s meant to say NOT SUFFICIENT resources for which people today (especially Americans) identify as being necessary…

    In other words…If everyone were to just DUMB IT ALL DOWN, we’d live fine…Without that, there’s going to be trouble…

    Now the PROBLEM is that the American economy is based on that standard of consumption for trade or profit…so something has to give eventually…

  38. Bruce N Tennessee says:


    It would be interesting to see if the emmigration rate rose once IOU’s were instituted..

  39. CNBC Sucks says:

    cvienne – still, you embrace the concept of resource contraints. I am not yet aware of any Libertarians who would acknowledge the possibility of such madness. Do you or do you not have “Libertarian leanings”?

  40. CNBC Sucks says:

    Bruce, you will be happy to know that Franklin will be paid for his teaching assistant duties with IOUs.

  41. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Well, from verbally going back and forth with the Frankster, I suppose he will think that is ok…

    However, he may find that reality bites…that theory is one thing, but grading papers gratis will probably lose its luster…

  42. Thor says:

    Bruce – I don’t think so. For one, this isn’t the first time they’ve done it. In 1992 the issues IOU’s for a little over two months, I remember it well because I was working as a teller at WFB, we’d take them and cash or deposit them just like a regular check. As for emigration, we’ve been a net importer of people from other states up until about 5 or 10 years ago, the population here is now going up mostly because of birth and international immigration (much like NYC).

    Also, keep in mind that there are over 36 million people living here. 1 in ever 9 Americans lives in California. We’re not all here because the government is run well (joke) or the housing market was so lucrative. We live here because it’s a great place to live. I know that’s hard for many of you living in other states to understand but it’s true. No one is stuck here, and no one should feel sorry for us because we live in CA, we’re a lot like Texans. Last, when you talk to people who have moved here from other states and ask them what they miss the least about where they came from you get pretty much the same answer across the board – Winter. For someone who was born in CA, I cannot comprehend why a person would live in a place where it get’s colder than the inside of your freezer during the winter – I mean you could literally DIE just being outside! ;-)

  43. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Finishedatthesaltminefinally! Whew. Another slamming day.

    Later. (Agree with the cold weather thinking, Thor. Anytime I get to thinking that, I just rent “Fargo” and come back to my senses…)

  44. Wes Schott says:

    Thor@3:42 –

    in CA, use the iou’s to pay your state income taxes

  45. Thor says:

    Wes – Hah, wish I could!

  46. Wes Schott says:

    Thor – turn about is fair play

  47. Thor says:

    Michael Jackson, Farrah Fawcett, and Ed McMahon all in the same week – what are the odds of that?

  48. Wes Schott says:

    Michael Jackson?

  49. Thor says:

    yeah – Michael Jackson is dead, different reporting from different sources but local radio here in LA is saying he’s dead.

  50. Wes Schott says:

    oh, i just looked at the newswire…how would’ve thunk it

  51. Transor Z says:

    Weren’t we just talking about NAMBLA yesterday? This is a big loss for them.

  52. manhattanguy says:

    “yeah – Michael Jackson is dead, different reporting from different sources but local radio here in LA is saying he’s dead.”

    Hopefully not because of too much debt?

  53. Wes Schott says:

    TZ –

    funny, but i am startin’ to wonder how all u guys no the acronym, hmmmm?

  54. Wes Schott says:

    manhattanguy -

    he almost died of too much debt previously

    now he was trying to inflate his way out of the problem

    probably blew a gasket, or whatever, heart attack – workin’ out w/Lew Ferragamo, apparently

  55. Alessandro Machi says:

    I don’t understand why it is ok to be relieved if one hasn’t been victimized by Chase bank. Why is it ok if someone else has been victimized but you haven’t ?

    Why are people so selfish.


  56. Alessandro Machi says:

    How come it is ok to say that credit card defaults are rising without ever connecting the rise in interest rates to the rise in the default rate?

    I believe there may be a default conspiracy in play in which banks make more money defaulting credit card customers and rejecting as many loans applications as possible, then the banks would make by actually helping people.

    How can the banks help people? How about creating incentive based credit card debt paydown programs? How about approving loans that are completely covered by assets irrespective of income? The loan is already secured, what more can they want?


  57. manhattanguy says:

    Credit card companies are not the only one to be blamed here. Majority of the blame goes on the stupid consumers who borrowed and spent beyond their means of living.

    Some wise guy once said “You choose a lifestyle that you need, not the one you want”.

  58. Transor Z says:


    Everything I know I learned on South Park.


  59. ben22 says:

    wow, I’ve been in meetings the last few hours, I can believe about MJ, that’s really sad. I know the guy was odd but I love some of his old tunes. Really sad.


    I was actually thinking more man purse. I’ll check out your recs, thanks very much for the advice.

    Oh and yes, as for the great time to avoid stocks article. well, I think you all know my thoughts on that.

  60. Wes Schott says:

    TZ -

    thank god

    now i understand

    it is a different cult, whew………

  61. Onlooker from Troy says:


    You might have misread that title. It says “Dangerous time to avoid stocks.” It’s a rather incoherent article, frankly. His case is kind of funny because he says the market’s going to keep going up and then crash to about 400 in a few years. I can’t fathom why it would be “dangerous” to be out of that kind of market. Sounds like a dangerous one to be in, like the last bull.

    He’s afraid of inflation so I thought his thesis was that you need to be in the market to counter inflation, then sell just at the right time to avoid the crash. But then there’s this quote: “Stocks aren’t a good hedge against inflation, however, because accelerating prices eventually lead to a collapse in equity markets, Napier said.”

    So I don’t know what the guy’s thought process is.

    Overall the article is very poorly written and gets hard to follow, as apparently ahab found to be the case.

    ahab – the deflation talk was Rosenberg’s perspective, not Napier’s.

  62. cvienne says:


    Thanks for finally making my point…

    I was the one who originally posted that article…

    I found it TOTALLY incoherent…

    This guy thinks it is dangerous NOT to be in a market that has no basis in fundamentals and is only bolstered by inflation fears…

    He sounds like Franklin saying it’s DANGEROUS NOT to believe in Obama because he’s going to borrow 3 trillion to build an elementary school (the walls of which will be covered in graffitti in 6 months)…

  63. cvienne says:

    Anyway…Rosenberg is the guy to listen to…

  64. ben22 says:


    thanks, I didn’t even read it, the title was enough for me to take a pass. sounds pretty bad the way you describe it.

  65. Alessandro Machi says:

    Manhattan guy, you may be oversimplifying the situation.

    People go into debt because they have unexpected medical expenses, can be a crime victim, lose their job, start their own business, replenish equipment for their small business (an excellent economic growth stimulant), their kids education.

    That is no reason to up rates to 30% on people who have never been late on a payment. sheesh.

    Unless the company you work for or run DOES NOT accept credit cards, it is borders on naivety to imply that credit card debt is simply a lifestyle choice.


  66. Onlooker from Troy says:


    Yeah, I almost passed on it too but got curious to see what the thesis was to help read the sentiment out there. It really wasn’t worth the effort though. :)

  67. karen says:

    ben, the man purse works… one of the most masculine men i’ve ever known carried a purse.. bar brawler, cowboy, hunter/conservationist, practically world renown fly fisherman, womanizer (can’t leave that out), world war 2 infantry soldier, one of the original Mad Men of Sand Diego.. you just need a good girl to make sure you don’t leave it behind : ) i’ll do some searching tomorrow and send you some links.. (uh-oh, broke my vow not to post after 5 pm pacific time.)

  68. Wes Schott says:


    you know joey from miami?

    i have to admit, i carry one

    it is convenient – and, very euro, he, he, he

  69. karen says:

    re: the bloomberg article. doesn’t anyone have a sense of humor.. these are news stories… enjoy them. at least this one has an element of truth in it.. but i would still advise the average person to stay away from the market, the OPPOSITE* of the title.

    *cvienne style

  70. ben22 says:


    lol, that guy sounds like the man, what a full life. My wife will keep an eye on the man purse for me. I could care less what people think of a man purse, no shame in my game.

  71. manhattanguy says:

    “People go into debt because they have unexpected medical expenses, can be a crime victim, lose their job, start their own business,”

    As I said the blame goes around. When does people take personal responsibility? You save money for these type of medical emergency situation. Consumers are at fault here. You can’t just blame corporations/real estate brokers for your own problems. This is the same reasoning used by people who got into the subprime loans. Why didn’t you just use your brain to think you can’t afford a million dollar house when you were only making 50k in the first place?

  72. karen says:

    ben, my turn to lol, just did a search on “no shame no game.” some explicit rap songs…

  73. Alessandro Machi says:

    So you think 30% interest is not racketeering?

    So you think it is ok to change terms and not allow the consumer the right to opt out on a pre-existing agreement?

    Your wealth, if you have any, is primarily based ON CREDIT.

    At the end of the day, it will be people like you that sink the entire ship by throwing the baby out with the bathwather.

    Once interest savings rates hit 1% in the early-mid 90′s, it discouraged people from saving. Your are defending banks who have tricked people into a certain amount of debt, and then raised the interest rates on them afterwards.

    I can only guess what field you work in.


  74. manhattanguy says:

    I already said that blame goes around. Companies change terms to whatever they want. Just exactly how they rip you off. I acknowledge that. This is the reason why I don’t use credit cards. But to sit there and just blame everything on someone else for this debt problem is plain ignorant and demented.

  75. manhattanguy says:

    This is synonymous to blaming fast food giants on your health problems. If you are concerned about fat food, why do you bother going to McD in the first place. Why blame food companies that make processed food? You know its NOT food, but its made of food “like” substances. As a consumer you make wiser decisions whenever you can.

  76. call me ahab says:


    I have to side with Alessandro- banks are the experts- they are always at fault when it is between the citizen and the bank-

    the banks are always going to work it so they come out on top- regardless of the circumstances- and that they have been the unprecedented beneficiary of USG largess- than the banks have been sponsored by the very people they are trying to fuck-

    doesn’t hit me as right- full disclosure- I carry no credit card debt and my mortgage is almost ZERO balance- so I have no ax to grind- but do not think it fair that people’s terms are changed mid-stream

  77. Christopher says:

    When is it bedtime at Michael Jackson’s NeverNeverLand??

    When the big hand touches the little hand.

  78. Wes Schott says:

    0k, more of this nafmbla,

    or whatever,

    come on this is TBP,

  79. [...] you might also want to look at the credit card chargeoff rate versus the exhaustion rate:Credit Card Chargeoffs vs Exhaustion Rate | The Big Picture [...]

  80. Alessandro Machi says:

    Manhattan Guy, your fast food analogy is out of context. You have oversimplified the situation.

    One can choose to no longer eat at a fast food place, but one can’t choose to pretend they don’t have debt, unless they file for bankruptcy.

    Credit Card companies can make more money faster by defaulting their best customers then they can by helping them. Chase bank credit card division should be investigated for treason against the american citizen, probably Chase bank as well for rejecting so many home applications but keeping the fees they charged for the applications. Undervaluing home equity lines. Freezing home equity lines.

    If the underpinning motivation is the desire to drop the credit scores of many people as fast as possible, then trying to pin the blame on the consumer is ridiculous.

    Not being able to OPT OUT of a CHANGE IN TERMS from a pre-existing agreement spits in the face of what it means to be free.