Comments on: Cyclical or Secular Bull ?

By: constantnormal

constantnormal — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:02:55 +0000

Don’t kick Franklin too hard. A confrontation with Reality lies in his future, as I cannot imagine a worse state to be in than California as the economic fantasy train rumbles to a halt there, the train having left the rails a while back. They’re all doing the Wile E Coyote sprint across open space at the moment … but moments do not last forever, and the canyon floor is a long, LONG way down. Even in the cloistered, sheltered halls of academia, there will be a chill wind as state funding goes to zero.

By: DL

DL — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:04:13 +0000

Nice rally in a secular bear.

By: cvienne

cvienne — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:21:19 +0000

@LB

The children were all nestled snug in their beds…
While visions of sugarplumbs (called HOPE & CHANGE) danced in their heads…

By: leftback

leftback — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:16:11 +0000

NO fair to start the franklin abuse while he is still asleep !

By: Moss

Moss — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:15:19 +0000

Any artificial floor attempts are meant to temper the artificial assent.
The polices are meant to bridge this gap.

Who can say what the correct ‘value’ is?
Are the markets all of sudden rational?
Is oil worth $150, $30 or $70 per bbl?
The bubble/bust cycle is inherently unstable and will result in these wild gyrations until leverage is taken out of the equation.

By: cvienne

cvienne — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:18:51 +0000

@Bruce in Tn

Franklin fancies himself as Linus sitting in the pumpkin patch waiting for the Great Pumpkin…

By: cvienne

cvienne — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:16:29 +0000

@VennData (9:01)

I certainly hope you don’t spend your day looking for “policy” statements regarding asset prices…Nor do I hope that you have your ears pricked up waiting for that bell to ring to signal that we’re either at the top or bottom of asset prices…

So I don’t have any DATA for you on that VENN…

So if I refer to an “artificial floor”, I refer to trillions upon trillions of money spent by the US Government either in direct cause, or by “guaranteeing” other assets…

If you want to make the case that 12 trillion dollars worth of such guarantees and expenditures were done for SOME OTHER PURPOSE, I’d like to know from you what purpose that might be…Because it seems like an awful lot of money to be tossing away on a whim…

By: Bruce N Tennessee

Bruce N Tennessee — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:12:19 +0000

Actually, the facts (green pea shooters aside) are that only China is moving now. And it takes little to see why this is happening. The Baltic Dry Index apparently was stimulated by the Chinese purchasing raw materials to stockpile. Today’s New York Fed is much weaker than expected. The Europeans are not solving their crisis, and the facts (data) as opposed to hope bear this out.

What is to be taken from the data sets? Simply that this was a big worldwide problem, and it won’t be over this year. Even the IMF says that the worst isn’t over and Paul Krugman says the world may be in for a Japanese style 25 year “L”….

And Franklin, it doesn’t mean we won’t get better, it just means that sometimes Christmas just never seems to get here…but we’ll just have to wait until it does.

By: VennData

VennData — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:01:11 +0000

If there’s no risk for bad behavior how can bankruptcies be so high? Foreclosures? Your claim has no data to support it.

And an artificial floor under asset prices? Where is the policy that states that? …when house prices drop? Treasury bonds drop? The USD drops? natural gas drops?

You’re simply parroting back GOP media machine talking points. Useless.

By: Mr. C. Cheese

Mr. C. Cheese — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:45:28 +0000

cvienne says….
New prez …’cutting the knees out of the hardest working and most ente/enterprising folks in our ecomony…’
Barrick Obama is Tony Soprano