FOMC voting member Evans is giving his say of what main factor led to the recent rise in bond yields and believes its a reflection of “better economic data” that’s been above his earlier forecast and thus implicitly not inflation or government spending. On inflation, he still sees the risk of disinflation, saying it’s “very difficult to see inflationary pressures” but admitted that he thought inflation would be lower than it is. The Fed’s benign view of inflation has been based on the large output gap and lack of wage pressures and they have been less concerned with commodity prices. I think in previous cycles such as in the 70s, ’80s and ’90s that may have been the right analysis but as proven in the previous commodity bull market, the US is not the center of the world anymore and commodity inflation will be not be constrained by a low level of capacity utilization in the US or the lack of wage demands on the part of US workers.

Category: MacroNotes

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