615-futes

>

This morning seems to be a bit of “Look Out Below” as the Hang Seng falls 2% Asian indices fall. European bourses also dropped 2%

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

29 Responses to “Futures Under Pressure”

  1. Steve Barry says:

    In the last half hour of trading, the Dow will surge positive.

    A guy just said on CNBC that we are doing everything and everything to avoid the policy mistakes of the Great Depression, but have taken on incredible debt. Perhaps avoiding the depression now might create an even worse problem down the road.

  2. danm says:

    A guy just said on CNBC that we are doing everything and everything to avoid the policy mistakes of the Great Depression.

    When will people understand that the only way to get rid of a mess is to clean it up?

    The difference between the great depression and today is that today, they are spreading it out and adding more junk to make it more level so they can finish the job by covering the whole thing up with a huge Persian rug.

  3. Mike in Nola says:

    We’ve seen the future much lower before. Means nothing. JPM and GS playing games.

    BTW, China mainland is up a couple of %. They have a bubble going there for the tme being with capital moving over there since many of the credulous believe that a government can order an economy to recover. They have not yet had their property bubble collapse, so much of their stimulus is finding it’s way into real estate for lack of any real business use for it.

  4. cvienne says:

    Good!

    Because I’d bought the June 93 PUTS on the SPY into the Friday afternoon surge…

    As soon as I cover those at a profit this morning, the market will tick back up…

    Actually, I wrote something about this on Friday (in the DOW positive for ’09 thread)…

    Looking at the weekly charts there are only two WEEKLY red candlesticks out of the last 14 weeks…One was opex week in May, and the other was the week after opex week in April…In April, opex week was characterized by a 3 day selloff (off a new rally high), followed by a recovery on Thursday & Friday…

    If the pattern continues, we “could” see the 910 – 920 level tested today or tomorrow, followed by some backing and filling…(some will want to close their books for the quarter as a lot of hedgies did pretty well)…I’d expect one final surge (to 962-979 area) during the first week in July, then the rally might be toast…

  5. dead hobo says:

    BR Noticed:

    Futures Under Pressure

    comment:
    —————
    Since the pumpers know where the top is for now, the only way to suck in some rubes to to manufacturer a little volatility. The only real question is how far will it drop and for how long before the next pump — which our incompetent financial press will herald as a major bull move. I don’t think it will last the day. Certainly not past tomorrow or Wednesday. A good power pump past Friday’s close will be good for massive headline coverage.

  6. dead hobo says:

    cvienne Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 8:14 am

    If the pattern continues, we “could” see the 910 – 920 level tested today or tomorrow, followed by some backing and filling…(some will want to close their books for the quarter as a lot of hedgies did pretty well)…I’d expect one final surge (to 962-979 area) during the first week in July, then the rally might be toast…

    comment:
    ————–
    Don’t bet the house and kids on it. Manufactured patterns are part of the game. Just sit back and wait a little. If it’s real it will last well past Wednesday, the decline will be obvious, and there will still be lots of green to pick up. This morning’s action is also what a hustler would do to look vulnerable and get you to come in closer.

  7. Init4good says:

    @danm said ‘When will people understand that the only way to get rid of a mess is to clean it up?’

    In current american society, seems to me “messes” are something only recognized by democrats. If you are a wealthy or republican, they don’t exist!

  8. Init4good says:

    Or maybe: a “public” mess = “private” opportunity ?? …sad ? …true?

  9. Mike in Nola says:

    Michael Moore teaser. At least the teaser will be a hit.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhfzvzKm_xk

  10. danm says:

    If you are a wealthy or republican, they don’t exist!
    ———–
    I guess when you have a wife and/or maid, you never are aware of messes.

    They just magically disappear!

  11. cvienne says:

    @hobo

    I’m not particularly worried either way…

    I’ve been using two different technical indicators that have continued to work (until they don’t work anymore)…one is the 144 “hourly” EMA on the SPX…That trendline explains a lot of the late day close action or otherwise “scratch your head” reversals…That line is about 923 right now…the market has bounced 4 times off that line since the rally started…It’s “dipped under” that line a few times but always recovered within the end of the trading hour…

    The 972 (my upside target), is the 233 EMA on a daily basis…I think there will be a lot of overhead resistance there…I’d concede the “potential” for a break to the upside of that (which shoots the S&P to 1k or something, but then a hard reversal back)…In other words, I don’t think we’d hang out there for very long…

    So that’s why I’m not really worried right now…922-972 is an awful big range…The gap is closing by the day, but a long summer with reduced volume provides many chances to profit off of volatility (as each failed attemt to break down or break out will cause consternation)…

  12. H.T. says:

    People might want to read “The forgotten man”, which provides an alternative to the liberal Progessivist view of the Great Depression and the FDR “fix”. FDR’s New Deal was the mother of all Keynesian spending, and yet we remained in a DEflationary depression for the entire 30′s. The private sector hoarded cash, and refused to reinvest because the government was continuing to intervene and ‘change the rules’ on an ongoing basis. Sound familiar?

    The Obama-Reid-Pelosi solution is a continuation of this failed policy [not to mention anti-Constitutional...].

  13. Mortimus says:

    Goldman Sachs downgrading Wal-Mart? Looks like after paying back TARP they’re licking their trident to profit on the downside

  14. Init4good says:

    @H.T. said: ‘The Obama-Reid-Pelosi solution is a continuation of this failed policy [not to mention anti-Constitutional...].’

    So what is a reasonable answer to the mess “we” now find ourselves in? Do you think it is just going to vaporize? If “we” do nothing for long enough, do you think it’s going to go away?

    What is going to happen to all the “government” obligations (aka debt) that all our corporations and banks owe to “us” – the people of the US?

    Are “we” simply going to allow “them” to be forgiven?

  15. Transor Z says:

    @Mike in NOLA:

    Saw that Michael Moore movie teaser over the weekend also. I just wish Moore wasn’t the messenger for Wall Street issues and health care (SiCKO). Too bad because he is so polarizing and these topics are too important. He’s a big fat target for TPTB.

  16. AmenRa says:

    I see the administration trotted out Geithner this morning to try and quell the morning sell off. Don’t they know people have figured this out by now? Plus the Empire State came in way worse than expected.

  17. cvienne says:

    @Init4good

    So what is a reasonable answer to the mess “we” now find ourselves in? Do you think it is just going to vaporize? If “we” do nothing for long enough, do you think it’s going to go away?

    You bring up a good point with that statement because the bottom line is that after one gets done “intellectualizing” the argument, it boils down to that…

    The best I can answer is the following…

    If we do NOTHING…Essentially society would collapse…You’d have a breakdown of basic services, every man would be for himself…There would be protests, riots, looting, cats living with dogs, etc…Politicians very lives would be in jeopardy…Eventually, some new order would be restored, and the only way to create a NEW society would be for people to come together again and build from scratch…

    The PROBLEM would be solved though…

    What’s fascinating to me is that eventually what I’ve described will happen in the future (as it has with every civilization in the past that history writes about)…It’s only a matter of who’s holding the last potato…

    It’s obvious that Obama never understood the depth of the problem while he was out there campaigning for himself for two years…Now that he’s in office and realizes he’s holding the potato, he needs to find a way to pass it on…The rest is all fun & games…

  18. Init4good says:

    @cvienne

    Exactly. We can intellectualize the argument as nauseum. The conservatives always seem to abhor governemnt intervention b/c they personalize it to mean a bunch of politicians whose faces they see and wish would go away. In my mind it’s the private sector that wanted, NO, absolutely INSISTED on these bailouts of banks, financial institutions, and corporations.

    In that vein the private sector is responsible for what now ails us, collectively. Therefore, since I feel I am not well-represented in my government, and since the scale of this problem is both national and international, I’m going to INSIST that as a tax-paying American, I WANT MY SHARE of the BAILOUT MONEY RESTORED TO ME !!!

    When all is said and done, and since it’s everyman (and woman) for himself, I simply want what’s MINE returned to me.

  19. cvienne says:

    @Init4good

    The “law of unintended consequences” with regards to these bailouts I predict will manifest itself in the following ways:

    - The “silent protest” will basically be people who stop producing. I mean, if you’re life comes down to you working hard to earn a decent wage, and being modest with your personal expenditures, & then the government then and rapes you of greater & greater chunks of what you earned to re-distribute it how they see fit…Where’s your incentive to keep on producing? Instead, you’d find the lowest common denominator of existence. perhaps you’d even go the route where you placed yourself on the RECEIVING end of all those benefits.

    - The moral hazard taboo has now been breached…There’s no going back…You can’t be “a little pregnant”. So with 6 months of policy maneuvers, we’ve sowed the seeds for my previous point.

    Eventually the money will run out (or, the synthetic maneuvers to ‘rig’ it will reach such idiotic dimensions that all TRUST is lost – some argue that we are already there)…

    So since the issue is TRUST…When that is gone, the whole system will fall apart…People will delude themselves as long as they possibly can while this game is being played out…I literally think that it will go on for another 3 years (where the DATA continues to get worse & worse, yet the basic function of the world stays magically in tact)…

    Then I think the year 2012 arrives (& all the prophecies come into sharp focus), and people start collectively ‘freaking out’…That’s when the economic illusion is dismantled, and the final tipping point of TRUST to CHAOS is breached…

  20. Init4good says:

    @cvienne

    hmm interesting….the tipping point where the gov’t robs you of more and more chunks of what you’ve earned….wonder where that is….

    another 3 years of head-in-the-sand?! God help us.

    I’m going to follow HT’s advice and get/ read a copy of The Forgotten Man and see if there are any clues to be had…then at least I may know what NOT to do.

    Cheers!

  21. cvienne says:

    @Init4good

    Ironically, it’s not that depressing to me…

    If the tone of my words seems to indicate otherwise I’d simply call that the “expression” of the sharing of knowledge amongst others that have peeled back several layers of veils…

    No doubt it’s absurd…But at the end of the day, I’m not really depressed at all about it…

    As the Chinese say, “may you live in interesting times”…Times are interesting, that’s for sure!

  22. dwkunkel says:

    I remember many years ago when income taxes were much more steeply progressive and I was working by the hour. I would refuse all overtime because I calculated that I would actually end up losing money after taxes for doing the extra work.

  23. Transor Z says:

    @dwkunkel:

    Explain please. Crossing the threshold into a higher tax bracket does not automatically mean that average tax paid on taxable income for a given year is equal to the higher marginal rate. You have to look at the tax tables to get the real picture in a progressive system.

    Would you mind providing the tax year(s) in question?

  24. dwkunkel says:

    @Transor Z

    This was almost 40 years ago, so I don’t remember all the details. I have always done my own taxes so I was very conversant with the tax tables and the progressives steps in effect at the time.

  25. Transor Z says:

    @dwkunkel:

    Sorry but I think you might have been better off becoming “very conversant” with a JD/CPA at that time instead of doing your own taxes. :)

    What many people do not understand (sounds like maybe you do understand) is that the tax tables are set up to tax ranges of income and not to apply just the top bracket rate to all annual income. This is not to argue that a “steeply progressive” structure does not create some disincentives to bring in income in the highest ranges. But frankly I’m a little skeptical that taking some overtime that gave you income in the next bracket would have caused you a net loss. It’s possible but I’m skeptical. Especially since you might have had a hard time getting hold of current year tax tables early in the year . . .

  26. dwkunkel says:

    @Transor Z

    I was making enough money at the time to end up in the higher brackets. I was projecting taxes based on the previous year’s tables and adjusting for expected bracket creep. I agree that by working some limited overtime I could have possibly increased my annual net income by some small amount, but by doing so I would have been working for an effective hourly rate that was significantly less than the minimum wage.

    The remark that I would actually be losing money probably qualifies as crossing into the murky realm of hyperbole, but isn’t that an essential part of posting on blogs?

  27. Transor Z says:

    dwunkel said:

    I was making enough money at the time to end up in the higher brackets.

    I believe that.

    I was projecting taxes based on the previous year’s tables and adjusting for expected bracket creep.

    Wow, you were really ahead of your time, since “bracket creep” didn’t come into usage until the late ’70s and stagflation.

    I agree that by working some limited overtime I could have possibly increased my annual net income by some small amount, but by doing so I would have been working for an effective hourly rate that was significantly less than the minimum wage.

    Ah, now we get to the nut of it. You lied.

    The remark that I would actually be losing money probably qualifies as crossing into the murky realm of hyperbole . . .

    Nah, nothing murky about it. You lied to advance a partisan agenda and then persisted in your lie.

    . . . but isn’t that an essential part of posting on blogs?

    For you, perhaps. I think you’ll find folks who read TBP — who run the spectrum from far left to far right, btw — have a nasty bias in favor of fact/data-based commentary. Nobody’s really impressed with some bullshit income tax anecdote you manufactured for propaganda purposes.

  28. dwkunkel says:

    Transor Z

    I became aware of this whole issue because one paid period I worked an hour and a half of overtime and actually received slightly less net pay than if I had just worked the standard 80 hours. I investigated and found that the extra pay had put me into a higher bracket and therefore significantly more money was withheld. If I was willing to work a LOT of overtime, I could increase my net income, but small amounts of overtime were negative.

    After this episode, I started keeping close track of where I was in the tax bracket maze and adjusted my hours accordingly. It turns out that this was not an uncommon practice at the time.

  29. Transor Z says:

    I guess a call to your Payroll department to adjust your deductions was out of the question. Or living with getting a refund.

    But wait, let me anticipate your response: you calculated the time value of excess money withheld because of your 15 minutes of overtime and determined that at prevailing interest rates letting the government hold your refund money for a few months represented a net loss to you — an unacceptable opportunity cost for a shrewd one like you.

    Of course, that only held true for trivial amounts of overtime worked per year (minutes, maybe an hour total), but by golly, it’s a winner of an argument. You really are a genius, dwkunkel.