What the heck!
3 down days in a row (not Nasdaq tho)
Its Wednesday, and I have a few fun things in the queue for tomorrow — what is on the collective hive mind?
What is getting you excited frustrated nervous annoyed?
~~~
What say ye?
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Knowing that the vote over the weekend in Greece was really a referendum on Euro membership, a majority of the Greek Parliament said yes to staying. European Finance Ministers meet again on Wednesday to solidify the 2nd bailout package for Greece at the same time hopefully a deal is consummated between Greece and its creditors this week. The Greek 14.5b euro bond that matures on March 20th is up by 2 pts. The optimism that all will be completed and contained AGAIN to Greece has yields lower in Portugal, Spain and Italy. The iTraxx Financial Index is also narrower by...
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June 17th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Inflation, it’s our savior! LOL
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-inflation-will-save-us-inflation-will-save-us-1933-propaganda-film-2009-6
Old 1933 propaganda film extolling the benefits of good old inflation.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
How about we start it off with GS & JPM paying back the TARP $$…
It’s been my mantra that as soon as that happened, the rally was TOAST…
But since this is options “pinning” week…I’ll hold that call of for about 3 more trading days…
June 17th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
world deflation- Chinese implosion- reversion to a real economy- not dependent on debt fueled consumer purchases
June 17th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
I don’t even know what to say reading this
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/business/smallbusiness/16investing.html?8dpc
It’s the same “free” advice that’s lost most of the IRA/401k public half its money — so far. Yet those who listened to, say, this “sweet-talking advisor” managed to save their ass long before Sept 15, 2008 (unfortunately, as those of you who work with the public know, amazing how easily some clients forget that, complaining about how “little” you’ve made them since. Maybe they should just follow this reporter’s advice, eh?).
June 17th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
The big trading houses only make money on the volatility; like any magical perpetual motion machine, the economy is ultimately grinding to a halt.
A dose of stoic sanity would be appreciated.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
We have an amazing confluence of events…none good.
1) Earnings have collapsed, sending market P/E soaring to unheard of heights.
2) Debt to GDP still growing off the chart, never before seen levels.
3) Near record stock issuance, seen before only in early 2000 and 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/firms-issuing-record-amount-of-new-stock?siteid=rss
4) II Bulls at 5 year highs, put/call 21 day MA bouncing up off multi-year lows
and now Microsoft is pulling the plug on Money, after I put 17 years worth of data into it. What, they can’t afford to serve their customer base?
June 17th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
I’m nervous I don’t own nearly enough SP500 puts…..
June 17th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
What’s on the collective hive mind? A lot of questions, actually:
Am I lucky, or good?
What’s the worst return I might reasonably expect based on past history? Or the best I can hope for?
Is the stock market ever “normal?”
June 17th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Went out to a little Thai place tonight in my neighborhood…noticed three more local business that just went out of biz….and this is in a Houston suburb where people have jobs and money and there was no housing boom/bust….
Too many strip malls…too many lousy business ideas….
June 17th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
I’m about where Andy is. I like to read and try and keep with you economist types and think I get the gist (maybe sophmore level) of a lot but, basically, I look at the facts on the ground — real production, condition of housing stock I can observe, etc. Just looking around a lot and seeing directly what real, honest-to-god, not theoretical markets are doing.
We’re fucked.
-t
June 17th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I have come to the conclusion that the investor who has not taken the time to understand investment risk, deserves what he or she gets. It is Reno, in skyscrapers and with computers……
And now the voter who voted on a happy feeling, we will get what we deserve for voting this way in this grand democracy. Ron Paul, we are very sorry…
Californians are getting what they deserve..(not in a malicous way, in a resigned sort of way…)
(Do you sense a theme of malcontentment here?)……actually, I guess I think it boils down to a lack of will. Our will to be a huge success has been forgotten, but a time of deprivation will bring it back. So think I…
June 17th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Bruce:
A country gets the government it deserves. — Aristotle.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
OT:
AT,
you ever do Vietnamese in H-town? Some of the best I’ve run into..
June 17th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
bruce-
big battle going on in CA between Arnold and the democratic legislature- service/cost cuts vs tax increases- fucking idiots should understand- that if you can’t pay for it- you can’t have it- California already has some of the highest taxes in the country- they just can’t seem to understand that they are a broke and must cut services and programs to survive
June 17th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
ironman
I’ll _always_ take good luck over brains, any day.
The public’s (including most investment ‘pros’) been bamboozled on “normal”, “average”, etc. re stock market. It is and has _always_ been a lot riskier than advertised. Most black-swan events have been statistical impossibilities, not even modeled by fin-plan/monte-carlo software (software which, as a CFP, I threw out years ago). Yet it’s those events which devastate most “normal” folks (or make a few lucky investors think they are geniuses). And — for the first time uttered outside my kitchen — I believe another of those is on its way, to a market near you.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
The posts here during the past week have developed an extremely ominous tone…(myself included)
The best way I can describe it is as citizens of a city that watch the Weather Channel and see a hurricane WAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY out in the Atlantic Ocean and see the storm track on a path to their longitude/latitude…(and kind of nod and go about their way)…
But it almost seems like now that we’ve arrived at the moment that we’re boarding up the windows and collecting bottled water…
Is my perception correct?
June 17th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
MEH: Yes… there are a ton of good noodle houses in H-town……
And I don’t think that question is OT as it’s open thread my friend….
June 17th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
@ahab (9:57)
“they just can’t seem to understand that they are a broke and must cut services and programs to survive”
They should start with Franklin…that ought to shock him into reality!
June 17th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
i’m a little surprised that no one is paying attention to the fact that Aliance/ALNC actually paid back its TARP warrants today
but what do i know..
June 17th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
I’ll put pho 75 in Arlington VA against any noodle shop anywhere- the best
June 17th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Ron Paul? Ron Paul??
As a registered Republican…yeah, Bruce, after that nuclear loan guarantee news, Ron Paul sounds great right about now.
cvienne, I feel more like I am on a bus that’s headed in the direction of a cliff.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
@CNBC (10:03)
yeah, but you still get my vote!
Hell, as a dead president, you might get your mug on a worthless piece of fiat paper!
So you have THAT going for you!
June 17th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
cvienne: your sense is correct….it’s getting dark out there….in very simplistic terms, the SP has broken a very nice trend channel that has been in place since late March….the “surprising” good economic reports last few weeks failed to deliver any new “juice” higher….all the crappy banks have issued secondaries to the willing mutual/pension funds (sheeple)….we’re heading into the middle of summer, so it’s a really bad time to own equities….and for the EW crowd..the moves down from the highs are “impulsive,” suggesting lower lows coming next few weeks. The only thing the SP is hanging on to right now is that simple 200d M.A. coming in around 907….if that thing gets breached, we will start to drop very quickly as the retail herd bails out.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
@CNBC
Then again, I’m not sure if Mandela’s face has made it’s way onto currency…
But I DO KNOW “the cape buffalo” has!
June 17th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
cvienne-
i am shocked- shocked- franklin is an educator- and that is the future of the country- no amount of money to great- no teacher to feeble minded-
with enough teachers and enough money- well- the sky is the limit
June 17th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Chilling correspondent dispatch from Tehran in today’s Boston Globe, “The Revolution Had Begun”:
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/06/tehran_dispatch.html
The city had been laid to ruin. Motorcycles and garbage dumpsters were burning at every corner. In Kuye Daneshgah Avenue, where the main dormitory of Tehran University is located, a bank had been set on fire. Most of the windows of the cars that passed us had been shattered.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Well I sold the last of my commodity/reflation longs. I bailed far to early with most of them thanks to CW telling us how corrupt the insurance industry is. In future I will be much slower to assume the discovery of a vast and vastly corrupt financial cartel will be cause for alarm.
Otherwise I’m in cash but I hold a high percentage of gold and speculative gold miners. My base currency is $NZ so I’m kind of corrollated there but I couldn’t think of anything else that I liked for currency diversity.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
@ahab
“with enough teachers and enough money- well- the sky is the limit”
“The problem with soc – i -al -ism is that eventually you run out of OTHER PEOPLES money…
Maggie Thatcher
June 17th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Andy T @ 9:39
Houston should do O.K. as long as oil keeps moving up… which I think it will (not in a straight line, of course).
June 17th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Hive mind? Probably, Cripes, do I take my profits now? Yeah, I took ‘em in the weirder stuff whose fundamentals I don’t get. Stayed in gold though. Rationality no guarantee of performance – I know, I know!
June 17th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
cvienne-
are you kidding me- we can make as much $ as we want- right? It is just paper- right?
June 17th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
@Transor Z
On Monday, on this blog, I made an OT remark regarding the O Administration’s curious lack of ANY response to the election fiasco in Iran…
I was met by the likes of Franklin here that O had it well in hand…I’m so thrilled by that as it gave me two restful nights of slumber that our President is on the ball…
June 17th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Ahab – agree with your first post – deflation, collapse of China –
Bruce – Thanks for clarifying your California comment.
As for CA – again, let me remind everyone not living in this state that what we’re seeing in CA right now is nothing unusual. Granted, the numbers are huge this time, but we have these kinds of budget issues every time there’s a recession. In the early 90′s state government pretty much shut down, the state was paying with IOU’s. Same thing happened in 2000/2001 only at the time we had the whole Enron electricity scandal. I remember at the time everyone was dumping on Californians, saying that the power issues were our fault because we hadn’t built enough power plants. Whatever happened to that argument? Nothing, because we were being shit on by Bush and Cheny and their buddies over at Enron. of course that all came out later. . .
So, don’t bash us too hard, I can absolutely guarantee all of you that if your state isn’t going through exactly this same problem right now, it will very soon. We’re not the only one’s who are screwed right now, we’re just screwed the most ;-)
One last correction – Ahab, not sure where you’re getting your numbers on CA having the highest taxes in the country – We’re not even in the top 10. Please see the below link for a listing of the top 10 states.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/30/highest-state-taxes-lifestyle-real-estate-state-taxes.html
June 17th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
@Simon
I suppose I can’t speak for the CONSENSUS here, but there are many here who think that if you’re playing gold for the “inflation” trade, you’re steering the wrong course…
A lot here are DEFLATIONISTS…
On the other hand…Gold can work as an ARMAGEDDON trade…(but then again, so can going out and stocking your basement with 500 pounds of rice)
June 17th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Interesting point on the real meaning of the FEDEX report today
http://pragcap.com/the-only-news-you-need-to-know-today
BTW, even though half cajun, not much of a seafood eater. If you do got out to the Vietnamese area in Houston and want a treat, try Chez Beignets at 10623 Bellaire Blvd. Strangely owned by an old German couple, but it has a huge Vietnamese following.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
speaking of Iran-
I was floating off the coast of Iran on the USS Constellation during the hostage crisis- would love nothing more than see the mullah’s get toppled-
the mullah’s represent repression plain and simple
June 17th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
PS – if you’re wondering about business taxes, CA is number 11 ;-)
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/22917.html
June 17th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
cvienne:
Not to startt a culture war here, but I think Obama is playing it smart. Any encouragement will backfire. After all, W’s saber rattling got Ahmadinejad elected. No country likes being told what to do by an outsider, even if the citizens would have done what the outsider was requesting before the outsider requested it. (I’m sure that made perfect sense.)
Or, to misparaphrase Ghandi, people prefer the imperfect goverment by their own countrymen to the enlightened rule of outsiders.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Sometimes I have to wonder how or why Wall Street works when the following can occur:
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2008/33-8899.pdf
6. On May 24, 2005, Thompson sent a letter to the Depository Trust Corp. informing them that she was BCIT’s new transfer agent. Thompson never registered as a transfer agent with the [Securities and Exchange] Commission.
7. On May 25, 2005, Thompson assisted in ordering the printing of additional new BCIT stock certificates. Thompson faxed the printer a legitimate BCIT stock certificate issued in 2001 and instructed the printer to use those signatures on the new BCIT certificates. The signatures on the certificate were those of its president and its then-secretary who left in early 2002. At the time of their ordering, Thompson had not received permission or direction from BCIT’s president, the only person with relevant authority, to print new stock certificates.
8. During June and July 2005, Thompson received and sold two million shares of fraudulent BCIT stock, earning profits of $7,632. No registration statements were filed with respect to these stock issuances.
9. Thompson acted as the transfer agent of BCIT between April and August 2005.
From my read, someone was able to tell the DTC that she was the new transfer agent of a company, and then sell stock into the system, all without the DTC even checking if she were a valid transfer agent.
Do I have that right?
June 17th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
@Thor
It’s very simple to say…”It’s different this time”…but let me attempt to put some reasoning behing that…
The 1990 recession (for CA), was essentially a combination of the S&L crisis which took a toll on housing, AND the end of the Cold War (which put a whammy on the defense contractors)…I know I’m oversimplifying that, but bear with me…
It was easily rectified by the dot com phenomenon and was soon forgotten…
the 2000-2001 was the collapse of the dot com…
The revival came from housing…
I’d simply say you guys need to pull another rabbit out of your hat…Perhaps you can…but as hard as I look, it’s tough to identify at the moment…
June 17th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
What really annoys me is that the idiots who run networks and news shows are still giving airtime to Dick Cheney and his one-trick pony propaganda.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
@Mike in Nola
Fair Enough…
I suppose I’m kind of ‘old school…I’d rather have my President take a stand on something…
Let’s say he was the CEO for the company I work for (and some news came out about a rival company or product)…I’d want to know right away what our policy stance was…
June 17th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Hey Barry,
I finished Bailout Nation and wrote up a review for my site: http://soyouthinkyoucaninvest.blogspot.com/2009/06/bailout-nation-by-barry-ritholtz.html
If anyone here has yet to pick up a copy I highly recommend it.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
@ ahab: I think our United States Navy would prefer that you use “steaming” or “patroling”, as opposed to “floating”. But I do love your way with words.
@ Ritholtz the Libertarian: Someone needs to stir the pot of this thread. We are all starting to think too much alike.
CNBC Sucks the Libertarian
June 17th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
Cvienne – yes, agree with you on all points. I’m not saying we’re not screwed, I’m just saying this isn’t 1. anything new, 2. anything the country as a whole isn’t experiencing, and 3. isn’t something most of the other states are going to be dealing with in the near future.
We’ll get through this, CA isn’t going to default, they’ll do what they always do. They’ll cut services drastically, they’ll raise taxes and fees. It’s not the end of the world scenario that I think a lot of people in the media like to portray.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
@cievenne Yes the shortish term is likely to see more deflation. I’m OK with that. I had some gold during the last round of deleveraging and the $NZ plunged along with gold but I was still better off with gold than with $NZ. I’m not so confident this time round that the $US will surge so strongly and I see a huge inverted head and shoulders on the weekly gold chart.
My Gold trade is a play on currency turmoil, loss of faith in fiat money and the FED, Inflation down the line which (I am very confident of) and I just like the stuff.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
Mike and Cvienne – I agree that Obama should keep his mouth shut. Talking to the Iranian Americans I work with (very large population here in LA) they agree. Him coming out too strongly will give the mulah’s a prime opportunity. Hell, they’re already blaming us and he really hasn’t said a word.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
@Simon
Interestingly & ironically…I like the stuff too…
I’ve owned the BULLION since 2004 (quite a bit of it, stashed overseas, btw)…
I don’t TRADE it…But as far as it’s “worth” is concerned, I don’t see it as doing a TECHNICAL BREAKOUT as many gold bugs have been chiming about over the past several months…
In fact, I’d rather see it CRASH, and pick up some more at a lower price…
June 17th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
@Thor
OK…I’ll go with that…
It’s not the way I would handle the situation personall, but I suppose it’s a dicey issue (so I can understand the opposition viewpoint)…
I’m sure there will be A LOT of Monday morning quarterbacking on this in the months to come…
June 17th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I believe part of this rally is pure market manipulation. And the manipulator is the Govt of the United States. Is it a mere coincidence that S&P waited till everyone was done with their secondary issues to cut the ratings of 18 banks? Was part of Geithners idea of public-private partnership to dupe the public to buy stock in these banks and then pull the rug when they had sufficient capital to get by? Was the possibility of a ratings downgrade not publicized before because S&P received some kind of quid pro quo from the Treasury for it’s role in the whole mess? This whole saga of the past 12 weeks stinks of some role by the Fed, the Treasury and the Government which we may never know. And till they stop playing, I can only guess what might happen the next few weeks. Afterall, doesn’t the government have monopoly over the use of manipulation?
June 17th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
Donte Stallworth got 30 days for DUI vehicular manslaughter. Some juvenile in Ohio got 23 years to life for killing his mother. Who was the adult here?
I’ve read Obama’s Proposal for Financial Reform and all I have to say is; forget new laws and additonal layers of bureaucracies which are either inept, conflicted or corrupted and punish the offenders to the fullest extent of the laws which already exist.
America will not lie around in slumber forever while these inconsistencies in protections continue to exist.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
cvienne: the difference between business and politics. IMHO, the business types really messed up by not understanding the diff.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
@Thor
Let’s put it this way…I hope O’s “diplomatic advisors” are giving him more sound advice than his “economic” advisors at the moment…
June 17th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
cvienne: re gold overseas
w/o giving anything away, any recommended places to stash that don’t require a personal visit? The wife wouldn’t allow it
June 17th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
@Mike in Nola
Sorry my friend…no advice…
I’ll say TWO things…
1. You have to have TRUSTED friends
2. They have to be WAY RICHER than you (and, you have to have some “goods” on them that could implicate them)
wink, wink
June 17th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
thor-
from mish 6/9/2009-
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/welcome-to-california-home-of-highest.html
June 17th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Pushkar
Indeed, and it’s all being done in the name of national security/stability. Ends justifies the means. No doubt about it. Echoes of the Patriot Act and the GWOT.
And most of the public would be right on board with it if they knew what was going on. What could be wrong with the market going up? (until it crashes again and they realize their mutual funds bought the crap).
June 17th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
CNBC sucks-
no dude- we were pretty much just floating- 4 months off Iran’s coast- Aircraft Carriers don’t patrol- the jets do
June 17th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Question about the gold posts – why store it overseas? Wouldn’t you worry that if the shit really does hit the fan that that gold could just be taken? Why not just take it in gold coin and put it in a safety deposit box? I mean really, how much gold are we talkin’ here? Even if you have 100,000 to invest that’s 100 gold coins. . . .
Personally, I want to have my gold somewhere where I can touch it, at least to play out a couple Scrooge McDuck fantasies with ;-) Do any of you guys worry that some of these places that are supposed to be storing gold might not have enough to meet their customer demands? I dunno, I’m just not confident in the honesty of any business these days, or the people who are supposed to be regulating them. . .
June 17th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
Andy T
Amen to not having enough puts. I’m hoping for a little bounce here and a drop in the VIX to pick some up cheaper. Didn’t pull the trigger a couple of days ago and regretting it.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
thor-
if owning gold is made illegal you have to turn in your gold- if you keep it in a safe deposit box you are breaking the law- with all the consequences that can follow
June 17th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
You know that axiom that says, “Stocks recover before the broader economy”?
Translation: “Wall Street runs up prices when they think John Q. Public will be buying back in soon”.
It’s just dawning on them that John Q’s not coming back now, and quite frankly, may never come back.
So the scramble is on to make investing “safe” for John Q again, so he’ll buy back in and take the pinheads buying secondary offerings of insolvent banks off the hook. Good luck with that!
I think this rally is about to be exposed for the circle jerk that it is.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
@Thor
“Question about the gold posts – why store it overseas?”
Answer:
Because at any given moment the US Government could confiscate it…(like FDR did)…
It would be illegal to own and not turn it in to the US Government for whatever THEY tell you they’ll give you for it…
Better to keep it outside the confines of US law…DON’T THINK THIS WON’T HAPPEN…
June 17th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Gold confiscation by the US government is a non-starter, now that we’re off the gold standard. Keep it in your basement.
June 17th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Ahab – thanks for the article. I read it a couple weeks ago and was trying to find any factual basis for it. The author never sites his sources, where the information is coming from. It’s just a bunch of numbers in a table apparently from Wikipedia.
I’m not sayin’ it’s not true, I just want to see a source for the numbers this guy came up with. He lists the added costs in extra taxes a person pays to live in California compared to other states but he doesn’t tell you where those numbers came from.
Also, is this article talking about the highest tax rates for the highest earners? If that’s the case then it would seem irrelevant. Since when do the wealthiest among us actually pay the tax rates their incomes should put them in? ;-)
June 17th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
@ Simon–”My Gold trade is a play on currency turmoil, loss of faith in fiat money and the FED, Inflation down the line which (I am very confident of) and I just like the stuff.”
Absolutely. And per Kellner. “Liquid money is up 11% over the past year, the monetary base has increased by 110%, while bank reserves are a thumping 903% larger than they were a year ago. (Bank reserves are now $1T versus $11B y-o-y.) Once the banks start lending, the money supply, already rising rapidly, will grow even faster.” Parenthesis are my comments in my personal notes.
As I figure it, once the banks begin to lever that $1T up, just 20X, they’ll expand the monetary base by another $20T. So, it’s not a matter of IF it’s coming, just a question of WHEN. And I want to be there early, before the herd materializes.
June 17th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
@Andy T
Look at how many days the S&P tried to break out above the 200EMA. It tried and tried but failed in the end. It also broke below the 13EMA for the short term trend. It is now trending down per the 3LB. Yesterday the S&P closed the rising window (gap up) from 5/29-6/1. Now my only question is will it be a slow grind down or jump out of a plane without a parachute drop?
June 17th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
Cvienne – Yeah, I hear ya, and I agree, if things really do hit the fan it could happen again. My only concern would be that if things really do get that bad here, they’re going to be as bad or worse in the rest of the world. If it’s feasible that the US Government could come and take your gold, why is it out of the question that the governments of Switzerland, France, Australia, or any other country you might have your gold in to take yours? I wouldn’t want anything of value stored in a foreign country. Foreigners with investments in that country are always the first to get the axe when times get really tough.
June 17th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
@E Says
I wouldn’t presume that eventually we wouldn’t be placed BACK ON to the gold standard…
Eventually, if the US can’t pay its debts (and if we continue to PRINT our way out of our obligations given our reserve currency status) , its creditors MAY demand payment in GOLD…
Currently, we have 8x the bullion supply that China has…(the GLD actually has more than China)…But if we have to deplete our reserves as a balance of repayment, a standard might be re-introduced…
Hence…
In the end it’s speculation…but I don’t like to simply go around tiptoeing through the tulips like guys such as Franklin…
June 17th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
@Thor
The RICHEST of the citizens of the countries you refer to CONTROL the politicians (kind of like here when you think about it)…
So in the end, it’s WHO you know…I’m comfortable with WHO I know in this case :-)
June 17th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
“If it gets bad enough, they’ll declare a national economic emergency. They’ll take over the banks, all business and industry. They may even try to confiscate our gold”- Ron Paul
pretty prescient- considering he wrote it in the 1980′s
June 17th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
Cvienne – touche’ ;)
June 17th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
@Thor
Let me put it to you in another way…
In the end…it’s all a big Mexican standoff…When you’re in one, all you need is to have your own gun loaded and pointed strategically…
June 17th, 2009 at 11:21 pm
Speaking of Mexicans – do any of you live in areas with a mexican community? Have any of you noticed whether or not the day laborers in your community are becoming fewer and fewer. I live a couple of blocks from Home Depot and I’ve noticed a steady decline in the numbers of guys standing out front looking for work. If I had to guess I’d say the numbers are down 80%.
I often wonder what the real numbers for illegal immigration into the US are these days.
June 17th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
@Thor
According to Franklin…a number like that (down 80% standing in line for work) assumes that someone is carting them away in a pickup truck to do some work…
GREEN SHOOTS!
June 17th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
CPI may be overstated as BLS assumes rents are increasing
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/owners-equivalent-rent.html
June 17th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Good seeing you around, Winston Munn!
June 17th, 2009 at 11:32 pm
@Mike in NOLA
Aot of noise on that chart but all you need to see are the REIT rents (falling off a cliff with a HUGE amount more to go down)…
That’s the anchor that will pull the whole boat to Davy Jones locker…
So from my standpoint OER figures are going to be indecipherable (from a historical standpoint) in the medium term future…
June 17th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
I posted a mid-month update for trustee sales for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/06/foreclosure-update-for-los-angeles-and.html
Lenders are ramping up the foreclosures in June but still holding off the majority of sales. Supply is quite low currently, a lot of that is short sales sitting in contingent status waiting for bank approval. It is an open question how many of those close. Supply is also being constrained because a lot of people who would be selling due to financial stress are hoping for a loan mod / person bailout instead.
For So. Cal. this is a great time to be liquidating supply, 5%-ish interest rates, a large pool of renters (potential buyers not available in many markets) , low down loans (FHA) and a $8,000 tax credit. The situation can’t get too much more favorable than it is right now for lenders to liquidate.
June 18th, 2009 at 12:18 am
Here are the top 4 things that are getting me excited/frustrated/nervous/annoyed:
1. (Negative) The Keynes-inspired disdain for the “rationality” of investors. I admire Keynes for many things, but the cynicism behind some of his greatest insights engendered policy-makers put the CON in modern eCONomics. The fact is that it was not “panic” that caused investors to pull their money out of the market, it was a lack of trust engendered by a huge knowledge gap between institutional and individual investors. Continued efforts to put lipstick on a pig just ain’t going to cut it in this environment, not for the most rational of individual investors. [This annoyance/frustration was inspired by the Financial Times article about irrational markets today. While I agree that the efficient market hypothesis and rational investor hypothesis are utter BS, to act as if what has happened in the stock market over the last few years is somehow "irrational" is ludicrous.]
2. (Negative) Dogmatic libertarianism that always insists on blaming government or quasi-governmetnal actors (i.e., the Fed) for decisions freely made by private individuals. History shows similar foolhardiness before there was a Fed, before there was fiat money (yes, believe it or not, the gold standard did not stop this kind of crap, and a fair reading of Mises will show you that he understood that). The fact is that the financial institutions have been “printing” a lot more money than the Fed has by extending credit to people that they knew or should have known could not pay that credit back. Whether or not “easy money” encouraged such bad decision-making, the decisions were freely made by the individuals who made them in their own self interest, and I’d love to see those people thrown in jail for their demonstrably anti-social behavior. Mises and Friedman both begrudgingly agreed that the government should punish anti-social behavior, but dogmatic idealogues are too busy focusing on fighting government intervention to remember that it is individual liberty and the consequences of abusing that liberty (i.e., anti-social behavior), that should dominate the discussion.
3. (Negative) The idea that “dark pools” are a positive thing, which the Financial Times seemed to imply in an article today. The fact is that “dark pool” are places that the big boys get to swim without being bothered with the riff-raff. For those of you who don’t know, “dark pools” are essentially anonymous, private exchanges where big buyers and sellers can transact in publicly-traded securities at prevailing prices without affecting those prices. Traditionally, if an institution wanted to get into a lightly traded stock in a big way, or get out of it in a big way, it had to deal with the impact of markedly increase demand or supply on the stock price. Now, with dark pools, they don’t. There are is, in fact, no longer any such thing as “market pricing.” They’ve decided to let the small players, who hold very little stock overall to set the prices on the open market, while exchanging at that price on the side. This means that the prices will be set artificially high. And the Financial Times seems to think this is a good idea . . .
4. (Positive) That there are fora like TBP, Naked Capitalism, Baseline Scenario and Calculated Risk that provide great information and have a knowledgeable readership from whom I learn something knew every day.
June 18th, 2009 at 12:38 am
There’s still a fair amount of forward inertia contained is this ole fumblin stumbin economy of ours.
Hats off to the trio of High Sorcerers, Bernanke, Timmie & Sheila, for the $15 Trillion in financial alchemy they pulled from their cauldrons. Consequently, I’m placing no bets on the timing of upcoming events; nonetheless, we are living the end-days of a 300+ million person nation operating its economy on a GDP that is 70% driven by debt-enabled consumer spending.
My ears have perked up on a few things:
More NYT opinion pieces willing to at least dance around the need for more local production and to admit the creakiness of our beleaguered GDP model.
More folks like Barry willing to challenge Wall Street’s bogus efforts at re-writing the history of 2007-08, and erasing the compelling evidence of chicanery and a need for more regulation.
More folks willing to challenge Obama’s blind devotion to blue-chip economic academics and their orthodox theories that work only on Planet Booms-n-Bubbles, rather than on our brave new world, Planet DeLeveraging.
Still waiting for more voices to highlight how globalization acts as a tidal pull downward on the ability of American workers to raise their wages in an attempt to drive 70% GDP more via ‘pay-as-you-go’ spending rather than by debt-fueled spending.
The day grows nearer when we finally replace “L-shaped Recovery” with the more appropriate “L-shaped Descent” and a seemingly endless grope across the crater floor.
June 18th, 2009 at 12:59 am
Went out for my surprise b-day dinner this evening. Had a great time. More and more empty storefronts in prime part of town (“Uptown” Minneapolis) though. Was great to suspend reality and have fun with friends but back to reality tomorrow. We may get a little rally tomorrow but I thought it was interesting that the NIKKEI seems to be selling off right now. Maybe the sell-off happens sooner than many of us think? I was thinking September, but maybe it comes sooner than that?
June 18th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Another indicator on how I feel about things – I’ve held the FAZ for more than a few days now…….and feel pretty good about it.
June 18th, 2009 at 1:26 am
The forums have become somewhat bland lately. Many similar opinions these days with an almost filibuster-like prolificacy.
June 18th, 2009 at 1:39 am
CTB:
Then suggest a thesis that is new and different. Surprise us all with something original…..
If you cannot, then that’s OK, just keep shouting from the Peanut Gallery….at least we’ll know where you are.
June 18th, 2009 at 2:59 am
Tao Jonesing makes a very good point about: “Dark Pools”.
Their negative impact on ‘Price Discovery’ has, in its store, the potential to Slay the, proverbial, Goose that Lays…
~~
AT,
re: Noodle Shops, that’s one of the great things about Houston, past the 12 1/2 months/year of Golf Weather, if you don’t like the ‘country’ you’re in, try the next block..~
June 18th, 2009 at 3:03 am
Here’s what worries me: 60B removed from the banks today. And it came from the ‘healthy’ ones, no less. And on top of that…there is no way the banks that repaid tarp can ever go back to the well without a real unwind. The way I see it: either I’m reading too many sites on the wrong side of the tracks or the banks really are so arrogant that they’re going to destroy themselves. If that’s the endgame, I’m all for it. I guess I’m just so disappointed that the guy I really wanted in there decided to fill his cabinet with arrogant horsemen who are more worried about pumping up the perforated economy than fixing the holes. Someone has to tell the banks the hard truth: “I know you think you’re well enough to play today, but you’re too sick, and if you play today you might make the others sick.”
June 18th, 2009 at 4:34 am
Relax Guyz!!
For now market is resting for a ramp up towards July 4th weekend.
I think we will see decent downside move only after July 4th (in case charts shape that way by July4th weekend)
June 18th, 2009 at 5:08 am
Next shoes to drop:
States and munis: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/states-in-deep-trouble-over-plunging.html
Commercial real estate: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/mike-kirby-of-green-street-cre-down-40.html
Baltics: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5438615/Latvian-debt-crisis-shakes-Eastern-Europe.html
Germany: http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=362
China: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/soc-gen-expect-new-equity-lows-in-h2.html
other thoughts:
- it seems THEY are talking down the stock market in order to make sure there is enough demand for treasuries.
- will the Iranian uprising inspire others in the region?
- My gut feel is that to go meaningfully lower in the short term we need a big one or two day drop from an already oversold condition. Otherwise dip buyers and performance chasers will lift us towards quarter end. Touching 888 or 850 today would not surprise me.
June 18th, 2009 at 6:58 am
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sjm_rNwkLVI/AAAAAAAAFjY/HdSvcgIXQZA/s1600-h/PITTaxChangeState.jpg
Chart from CR this morning on state tax revenue….Arizona wins! California and Michigan running neck and neck!
June 18th, 2009 at 7:25 am
Ok, thoughts… Read Rosenberg’s Wednesday notes. Green turning to brown–no surprise. Read the FT article he quoted…(we are equal or worse on several metrics compared to the Great Depression)Myron or Byron White is the writer?
I continue to track my custom chart at work of volume. It’s a ratio of NY total volume-NY floor volume…My theory is that the spread widens when institutions feel strongly at the start of a trend (+ or -) So the spread peaked out in March and has been in decline ever since. Right now, the only time that has a lower spread is December (holiday volume) I think this will be an additive indicator, but not a self standing one. It will need other indicators to build a case, bull or bear.
This week’s action seems to more closely reflect reality…but the lack of volume does not lead me to believe there is much commitment to this correction yet… There seems to be a HUGE confluence of a variety of moving averages starting at 900. If we start breaking below there, I think we will start to see this pullback be seen as more than just a “healthy rest of a tired market”. On point and figure, 880 is the “oh crap” line. It is higher on using other charting methods.
I continue to hear very sad stories from prospective clients and existing clients. Not hearing anything of order pickups or hirings or expansion. Everyone I know is in nuclear winter hibernation.
New regulation…really?! There is nothing wrong with current regulations–just enforce them! A law on the books that is not enforced is not really a law.
I really want the most wasteful, unorganized entity running my healthcare…no. No, I DON’T. Reformation, not taking over the industry, please.
My cynical gut-feel–this stays a pullback and clears up Monday or Tuesday. Market charges back to 950-ish by quarter end b/c of window dressing and fund manager angst. The real correction starts in July. This is just an extended preview… Too many people want to print a positive S&P500 number ytd at the end of the quarter. Right now, we are experiencing the jockeying for position in the pack. If you are a runner or cyclist, you know what I mean. A run up to 950 from hear is going to give a potential 4-5% to a funds bottom line for the quarter…What do you think? Greed wins over fear? Yup, greed.
June 18th, 2009 at 7:26 am
I was just wondering – are we still on schedule for the Apocalypse? Are puts, shorts, and survival gear worth the investment?
June 18th, 2009 at 7:46 am
The rescue has no doubt had corrupting influences on most participants. Rationalizations are being / have been made to justify both good and bad behavior.
Everyone who has played a part should be fired when their term expires. To minimize corruption, all should know this now. New eyes = new ideas. No sycophants allowed.
June 18th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Here is one for the open thread:
Listening to the speaking tone of Abbey Joseph Cohen or Christine Romer is punishment.
@Tao,
Been reading a lot about the dark pools at Zero hedge. I wonder if these are thought about in the “new regulation”, I haven’t read the 88 pages yet but my guess is, it’s not in there.
June 18th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Regarding going short, I’ve read some dire predictions about what a Primary Wave 3 down is going to look like and I’m not sure I’ll want to be short, instead maybe just hold on the safest cash possible. If credit gets as tight as some think it will, how do you collect on your shorts?
June 18th, 2009 at 8:41 am
We have some secondhand stores in our area that might take your shorts off you, Ben…..
June 18th, 2009 at 9:07 am
Jobless claims UP moderately, thats not very good news this far into the game – with the recession ending in 6 mos according to BB and in 3 mos according to Krugman. We never hear any more chatter about what inning it is but according to BB it’s the 7th inning and Krugman 8th inning. How come they haven’t told us it’s a double header. Deflation followed by hyperinflation?
I assume there aren’t many autoworkers left to be laid off but there will be plenty more losing jobs at dealers
June 18th, 2009 at 9:09 am
BR, Have there been any articles about the 9 immortal banks that aren’t repaying their TARP? The 10 who repaid aren’t newsworthy – the other 9 might be.
June 18th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Jc:
With new claims still 600k, I can think of several reasons the continuing claims dropped slightly….and as usual, last weeks claims were revised higher.
I am also puzzled about China. If you look at the 3 export players we tend to keep an eye on, we are learning that the problems in Germany and Japan are much worse than we thought, say, 3 months ago. Yet, it seems that China is able to change its export paradigm to an internal stimulus model and have it work temporarily, at least. I am interested to see how this will play out toward the end of the year. It just seems to me that as severely as Germany and Japan are being affected, that the China story is just a little too pat for me…
June 18th, 2009 at 9:26 am
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/EconodayFrame.asp
Highlights
For a second week, Redbook is reporting extreme weakness in chain-store sales, weakness that is not explained by year-ago comparison problems with 2008 tax rebates. Redbook reports a giant 4.8 percent year-on-year decline for same-store sales in the June 13 week compared to the year-ago week. Month-to-date, Redbook reports an unrealistic 4.5 percent decline compared to May — that would signal one of the great retail sales collapses ever. Year-on-year stimulus comparisons also hurt this past May, not just this month: the month-to-month comparison effect of stimulus checks for this May and this June is limited. One factor that may explain the plunge is the removal of Wal-Mart from Redbook’s sample, a necessity given Wal-Mart’s data blackout. Redbook’s text, like last week, is mild, citing a shift in Father’s Day for the week’s weakness — a shift that will not be at play in Redbook’s month-to-month estimate in next week’s report (which will be very interesting to read). In any case, the bottom line, supported by other weekly retail sales reports to a more limited extent, is that June is shaping up to be a big disappointment.
“One of the great retail sales collapses ever….” Well, nobody said retail was easy..
June 18th, 2009 at 10:13 am
@B22:
You cover into sheer panic. Thats how you collect.
June 18th, 2009 at 10:18 am
DJIA 3600, Wars and rumors of Wars.
June 18th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Unlike yesterday, I am not playing the market aggressive today. As I predicted we are having an up day today. Waiting for a good short entry on $COF and oil. I will go play out in the rain now :)
June 18th, 2009 at 10:30 am
@manhattanguy
I’m 100% with you…
I’m just waiting to let it rise on its own…Get this week over with…
Watch some US Open in your backyard…(at the Black)…Toughest course I’ve ever played…
June 18th, 2009 at 10:35 am
I-man,
Yeah, I mean, I’ll be going short in the early stages, but if it drops to where I think it could then I’ll cash out pretty early and watch it all go down.
Someone shared a story on here the other day about trading with interactive brkrs last fall, and it was scary.
June 18th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Oldie but goodie, There’s no trick to being a humorist when you have the whole government working for you.
Will Rogers
June 18th, 2009 at 10:41 am
@ben22
I can see your point if things get hairy…
I guess it depends on what size lots your playing with…Maybe best to spread it around…
June 18th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Bruce,
Lots more out of work compared to a year ago but I’m sure Walmart change really skewed things up.
China is still centrally controlled economically and I’m sure politically they’d never permit something like whats happening in Iran to occur in the Middle kingdom.
June 18th, 2009 at 10:45 am
I read today that the drop in continuing claims was due to people finding work, I thought it was the expiration of unemployment benefits?!
June 18th, 2009 at 10:59 am
@ CV-
The push to 920 this AM smacked right into the downtrend off the 956 high… set up a nice entry for SDS at 55.77, the neckline of a mini H&S…
I took an entry position on SDS this morning at 55.80, stop out at support from Tuesday @ 54.50…
Still dont know if this is a swing trade or a position trade… we’ll find out soon enough.
XLF @ 11.80 is key.
QQQQ @ 35.60 is key.
Keep your eyes on the levels today folks, it could get interesting. I’m still not ruling out a move higher to backtest 930- that would trap some new longs I’d imagine, but sometimes you dont get the backtest. The money flows have been dissipating since mid May, it will take alot to turn that around IMO.
June 18th, 2009 at 11:10 am
@I-man
Yeah mon…
I think iy may take 3 bumps or so to push through that 920 shoulder (so we may just wave around between 915 & 920 a couple of times)…
I really thought the set up was to close at 920 yesterday but I was wrong on that…
There’s no reason not to go backtest 930 (between now & next Monday), but bulls are going to have to have some serious stones to play that…
I played my little “mini-gig” yesterday…I bought SPY93 calls for June at .25 cents, then left the party at .44 cents…
It’s getting too dicey out there for me…
June 18th, 2009 at 11:11 am
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090617/bs_afp/chinauseconomyfinancebondsforex_20090617082001
China sells US bonds to ‘show concern’
BEIJING (AFP) – A decision by China to reduce its US Treasury holdings suggests concern about the US attitude towards its economic woes, Chinese economists were quoted as saying in state media Wednesday.
June 18th, 2009 at 11:16 am
@I-man
Note: if it can’t get over 920 by 1:00 PM…Then I’d look for some shenanigans to come into play right about 3:20PM…
(a quick selloff down to 914, followed by a wicked reversal and ramp into the close – above 920)…
June 18th, 2009 at 11:19 am
@Bruce in Tn (11:11)
Just wait to see how concerned they’ll REALLY become when O announces Summers to replace BB…
June 18th, 2009 at 11:31 am
The fact that GM equity is worthless yet isn’t trading at zero indicates:
A. Speculation (of the idiotic variety) is still alive and well.
B. Common shareholders who didn’t sell on the way down have nothing to lose by hanging on.
C. There are no “natural buyers”.
D. A combination of the above.
E. Something else altogether.
June 18th, 2009 at 11:34 am
@Reversion
or “F”
Who gives a flying “F” :-)
June 18th, 2009 at 11:38 am
@cvienne:
I know…I still don’t understand why people aren’t taking the Chinese more seriously…they’ve made rumblings for at least 6 months that they didn’t trust the US government to maintain the value of the debt they are financing for us…and I keep seeing rationales that they are stuck with us….
We’ll see…
June 18th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Bruce,
RE: China selling bonds.
There was an interesting article I read a day or two ago on that basically showing that via purchases through the UK China is actually still increasing bond exposure, it’s not showing up though in the data used in that article.
If I can remember where I read that I’ll find the article and paste it here.
June 18th, 2009 at 11:45 am
@Bruce in Tn
There is one ACE IN THE HOLE that I’ve always contemplated regarding our Trade imbalance with China…
The US holds 8x the physical gold that China has (and China wants to increase it’s gold reserves)…
I’m speaking in a fairly ignorant sense here (with regards to how to quantify that) because it would depend on a fluctuation in price I suppose…
If anyone with intelligent insights on that subject would like to chime in, I’d be very curious to hear your thoughts…
June 18th, 2009 at 11:47 am
@I-man
I’m also sitting here “contemplating” the possibility of a move down to around 901 today, with a close around 907…
Just an idea…
June 18th, 2009 at 11:49 am
And people…
Lest we not forget that the OPEN for 2009 on the S&P was 902.99…
Last weekend’s headline “Dow closes positive for ’09″
This week????………”S&P closes ?????????????”
June 18th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
The speculators are going to keep bidding up UNG (and then dropping it) until they finally get it right!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-natural-gas-inventories-rise-114-bcf-eia
I know, it’s basing.
There’s a lot of talk about it – and I’m inclined to believe – that the ETF world is really becoming the tail that wags the dog to a detrimental degree. More and more evidence is building and I think one day we’ll be asking ourselves why we let the markets (commodities and equities) become so skewed by them; especially the leveraged kind. We may have created a monster.
June 18th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
@ben22
Setser? Or Pettis?
June 18th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
@I-man
It hit 920 at 1:00 right on schedule…
It got THROUGH, but there was no hefty follow through…HMMMMMMMMMMMM…
I’m still waiting to see if it will happen…
June 18th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Yeah, Brad Pitt over at Zero Hedge posted on it- quants pushing tape up on no volume…
Just proves that they couldnt make it stick.
Just another false breakout with no meat behind it. The technical damage has been done.
June 18th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Is this the Trader Random Thoughts Open Thread? Or has LB wandered into the wrong ‘hood.
We must say that here at Schadenfreude this week has been an absolutely monster yawn.
As we go into expiration we are feeling very bearish but wary of yet another reaming from the PPT.
Contenting ourselves with watching the $ and the seemingly incessant rainfall in NYC.
June 18th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
I was wondering where you were hiding out at Left…
June 18th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
@LB@I-man
Yeah – I’ve drawn another scenario that pretty much keeps things in a holding pattern until July 2nd…
So that would be two more MONSTER YAWN weeks…
Hope it stops raining by then lefty ;-)
June 18th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I’m a bit PPT wary myself going into next week… I know when I start to feel this good about my short positions in this tape that something is about to happen… either the camel finally breaks, or they juice it again.
June 18th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Today’s just one big effort to paint that gap from 5/29…
It’s PAINTED dammit! It’s PAINTED…
…now let’s move on for crying out loud!
June 18th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
I am about to buy a bass boat…there are some amazing buys on used boats…amazing. And we are only talking about the kind of thing you pull behind you, no marina fees…people are almost giving the things away…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
@Bruce N Tennessee
Are those deals local, or are you on the internet looking?
I’m in the market for a bass boat myself…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
A little Louden in your future?
June 18th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
We use a little more metal out here on the columbia…
http://www.alumaweldboats.com/custompage.asp?pg=intruder
June 18th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Yes, I man…a little Lake Louden, a little Norris, a little Dale Hollow…
Yes, cvienne…local offers…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
But when I’m rich, I’ll be fishing out of one of these bad girls:
http://www.albinmarine.com/28tournament/28tournament.html
June 18th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
@Bruce
While it’s tasty right now…I’m thinking that when the the economy REALLY bites the weenie (you know – the one that they won’t have any more bullets for)…That’ll be the time to buy…
I can fish from the dock for now…
The catfish ain’t so bad…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
“Hope it stops raining by then lefty”
If not LB is moving to California and renting a shack in Malibu.
Oh wait, that was the 60s… and I wasn’t born. Well, barely.
These are the days when everyone is talking about bass boats or reggae or Swedish girls.
These are the days when they gun it late on, just to screw traders putting on new shorts.
June 18th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
@I-man
hey I-man…
We’re 9 minutes away from that “head fake” move that’ll take the S&P down to 912-914, then whip right back for a 921 close :-)…
Just a guess…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
You’ve been pretty money on these intraday swings, I wont fade you.
June 18th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
It’s either that or the opposite…
It rips to 926 and then fades down to 913…
Whichever scenario unfolds first, I might play…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
The volume on these moves is so unbelievably light, you know its the quants… what a joke.
June 18th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Proceed with MACD cross… now.
June 18th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
@I-man
re: quants
I was thinking that too…That’s what got me thinking about the July 2nd scenario…
How fitting would it be (after all this noise), that the S&P finished June 30th right on 903…
The OPEN on Jan 1…
FLAT for year…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
@I-Man
That MACD cross hit right on my time marker didn’t it?
June 18th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I’m beginning to think that you are really just James Simons computer, and not cvienne…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
@I-man
so do we close on 913?
June 18th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Read an article about how mortgage rates should come down since the treasuries had done so well this morning…and then today happens..it also looks to me like the DOW is getting weaker going into the close…
Manipulated markets are so interesting…especially when your stomach is not churning over them..
June 18th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
@Bruce, TLT making an inverted head and shoulders.
Treasuries will be a better investment than SPX in the 2nd half. Again.. :-)
June 18th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@LB
I’d say you have clear sailing to 95…………….and beyond…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
I’d say 913 or 912… that would nestle her right on top of the downtrend line from the 956 high… a perfect set up to crush the complacent longs that bought all the calls and blame it on the quad witch tomorrow.
June 18th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
here comes wave 3…
June 18th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
922 intra-day high qualifies as a lower high from 956. But I prefer to watch another day of this junk.
May put on a few small shorts but that is all.
Here at Schadenfreude, when we don’t know what to do, which is often, we do nothing.
As BR says, don’t just do something, sit there !!
June 18th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
@LB
You can go to sleep admiring that TLT chart :-)
June 18th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Now… to crush XLF… 11.80
June 18th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
…cue wave 5
June 18th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
IYR sure is a battlefield today… someone’s not going down without a fight.
June 18th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
……awwww…..BUSTED :-)
June 18th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/107205/6-states-hitting-residents-big-tax-hikes.html?mod=taxes-advice_strategy
6 States Hitting Residents With Big Tax Hikes
“and Georgia lawmakers are proposing a “pole tax” that would charge gentlemen’s club patrons $5 at the door……..”
Un-huh……I-Man, did you write this?
June 18th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
One point off of the 5/29 close… now… what was special about that day?
June 18th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
They should have called it a “Lap Tax”… :)
June 18th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I thought it was pretty good, anyway…
June 18th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Nothing like sin taxes to balance the budget. I wonder where the Mistress is today?
She usually appears when I-Man is wandering off topic in that direction.
I-Man: LB is holding some SRS and picked up FAZ into the close. Also have DZZ and SCO as $ trades.
However we will be on the road tomorrow so we are playing small.
Will hope to touch base with you trading geniuses from JFK.
June 18th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
@I-man
The chart from 5/29 – NOW looks like “Tabletop Mountain” in Cape Town…
June 18th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
@LB
I think the Mistress had some computer problems today…
‘slingin it’ from the 13 inch Mac…
June 18th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
She’s getting kinda sick of us I think… the ego comment yesterday said it all.
June 18th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
“5/29… now… what was special about that day?”
did you and Mrs I-Man have a special moment? ;-)
June 18th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
I know! Talk about La Mesa. Aint very “natural” looking is it?
June 18th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Ha… good one LB.
Nah… thats the day of the huge end of day pump, followed by the monday morning goose… you know, the one that took us up to our brief stay at hotel 950…
Which kind of gets me thinking… is there a way that you guys know of to see who were the big writers of 950 and 930 SPX June calls? I have an idea, but I want to see it in print.
June 18th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
@I-Man
Now take the base of La Mesa back to the 10/10 low…
The periods above have been:
1. 6 days before “yay – Obama gets to be President”
2. New Years
3. Bank Stress test results
…hmmmmmmmmmmm
June 18th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
@I-Man (4:25)
What about that lot of 20,000 SPY75 August puts?
June 18th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Bazza has just posted a new thread CPI June 2009. For those who need their Mannwich.
No sign of the Mistress, though. :’-(
June 18th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
@LB
I told you…The Mistress is having computer problems today…She’s toughing it out with the bullpen (a 13” MAC)
June 18th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Side note whine…
How come when I get “RIMM-ed” its down like 10 or 20 pts, but when I’m outta that bitch it only tanks 5?
June 18th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Cvienne,
As you so eloquently ask, “Who gives a flying fuck?” Well, the fact that GM ISN’T AT ZERO might (or might not) have broader implications for equities in the near-term. Not a very difficult concept to grasp, and certainly more relevant to this site than what type of fishing boat you are thinking of purchasing.
June 18th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
@Reversion
Ok…if you say so…
I only asked who gave a flying “F” (about GM though)…
There’s this thing called humor & irony…In your post, you gave choice options for A, B, C, D, E…
The next letter in the alphabet is “F”…
If I have to elaborate further………….then………….well…………
June 18th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Cvienee,
D’oh!. Point taken…
June 18th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
@Reversion
It’s all good…my friend :-)
June 19th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
Just covered my $RIMM trading shorts after hours for a nice profit. Had a fantastic trading week. I hope this volatility continues to stay in the market. S&P had another doji day after testing the 925 area. Oil trend is broken (UUP bounced back). Although I want to see how next week turns out. My guess is that market will trade between major moving averages until July 4th w.e. Then it will break to the down side?