When will the economy improve enough to see employment start expanding ?

jobopen

open2

via Jake

Category: Economy, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

85 Responses to “Job Openings vs Unemployed”

  1. CNBC Sucks says:

    Ritholtz, enough with the bad unemployment news already. Across America, plenty of new jobs are being created. Do your damned charts illustrate the exciting job prospects in the US for:
    1. Tattoo parlor attendants
    2. Tattoo design artists
    3. Bankruptcy attorneys
    4. Credit counselors
    5. Policemen

    Sorry, I couldn’t work the new “emo or indie” mtheme into this one, but it’s in the same area code.

  2. dead hobo says:

    The S&P daily chart has a more random appearance today than in recent days. A few hours does not make a trend, but I wonder if the pump is over for now? There haven’t been any vertical lines yet today. That in itself in unusual of late.

  3. Mannwich says:

    @CNBC Sucks: This looks like green shoots to me (well, maybe not “green”)…..

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2009-06-02-vietcoffee_N.htm?csp=15

  4. km4 says:

    We don’t need no stinkin good jobs when financial engineering ponzi schemes and consumer spending ( 70% of GDP but the Banks want more ) are the 2 key drivers of the debt laden ‘bubble’ US economy.

    “From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent”.
    - Simon Johnson, The Quiet Coup

    Keeping zombie banks alive is going to sap the energies of the US economy.
    - George Soros

    The US financial ponzi scheme is a racket…..Obama and his Wall St bought and paid for economic team have put all their chips on the Banking Oligarchs. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few ( The 19 too big to fail banks ) at the expense of the very many ( the American taxpayers). Obama’s objective with his Wall St bought and paid for economic team is to pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile that’s essentially worthless unless the peak real estate values of the bubble can be miraculously restored.

    As The Triumph of the Banking Oligarchs continues at huge taxpayer expense perhaps most Americans should look forward to being a much BIGGER version of Argentina or Mexico in the near future !

  5. Transor Z says:

    Obviously, we need more cowbell liquidity.

    Secondly, the US is an entrepreneurial nation that has turned into a nation of whiners. During the summer months there’s plenty of landscaping/gardening, pool cleaning, dog walking, and catering work that needs doing. Stop complaining and get out and start your own business.

    The problem is all the undocumented aliens and teenagers doing that kind of work under the table. The actual available job numbers is MUCH higher than that chart shows.

  6. call me ahab says:

    where’s the problem?

    Transor Z-

    We have a disease- and the only cure is more cowbell

  7. Moss says:

    Don’t forget all those umpire jobs!

  8. CNBC Sucks says:

    Transor Z, I agree with you that “the US is an entrepreneurial nation that has turned into a nation of whiners”. Some of those who have only seen some of my posts and think I am sort of a leftist nut – when in fact I am an SUV-driving registered Republican – will find this surprising, but I believe that money printing – not money – is the root of all evil. Money printing destroys accountability and initiative. We can create ginormous military-industrial complexes that mask our failure at manufacturing for high-volume consumer markets. We can save banks that should have been eviscerated by their own stupidity and arrogance. We can keep bastions of multi-generational institutional incompetence such as GM and Chrysler alive. We can subsidize the richest moneygrubbers from the oil, coal, and nuclear industries with even more money! Some people say that debt is at the root of America’s problems, but I say that money printing – with America as the only country in the world able to monetize its own debt – is why America’s youth is more concerned about whether they are emo or indie than any of the intractable national and global crises that we lonely geeks discuss on this blog.

    I knew I could get the “emo or indie” mtheme in at some point.

  9. donna says:

    At least you don’t have 23 and 19 yo sons without jobs.

    At least we can afford to keep them in college — for now. But then what??

  10. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Donna,

    Once they finish college, you and your husband start a business so that they will have some place to work…

    ….I know, I know….such brillance as mine is a rare find indeed..

  11. Marcus Aurelius says:

    If the available jobs won’t forestall personal bankruptcy, why would anyone lift a finger?

    Transor Z: Would you pay someonr $50 – $60 to walk your dog each day?

    The recently unemployed person with minimal living expenses (rent, car payment, gas, food, clothing, and their share of debt) will not make a living walking dogs, cleaning pools, landscaping (I guess they would, at minimum, need landscaping tools and transportation), or at any other entrepreneurial endeavour that requires even minimal startup costs. Have you ever started a business? It’s very expensive. to someone who is truly broke (and those in debt are beyond broke) even a few bucks is a lot of money. That’s why teenagers do this kind of work — their expenses are relatively minor.

    Realistically, either the cost of living will have to come way down, or minimum wages will have to go way up.

    We will have social change.

  12. karen says:

    Bruce, that was my plan, lol. My older son is testing for his CFA this weekend.. Of course, I would have hired him without that designation.. but his girlfriend is in ny, thank goodness; I am in ca, and he’d much rather find work closer to her. Fortunately, he’s got another semester to go.. wants a philosophy degree on top of the BS. Brilliant kid, I’m not worried about his prospects, said his mother.

  13. franklin411 says:

    I agree with the estimates bounced around during the debate over the stimulus package in Feb 2009:

    With Stimulus: Unemployment peaks in the 9% range this year, declining to the 5% neighborhood by 2013

    Without Stimulus: Unemployment soars to 11% by mid-2010 and remains severe at 8% by 2013.

    Mark Zandi called this one.

    http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/Economic_Stimulus_House_Plan_012109.pdf

    @Mannwich
    Those outfits aren’t skimpy at all. I’ve had plenty of girls come to my classes dressed like that over the years!

  14. willid3 says:

    well if we follow the last 2 recessions jobs will start to recover in 2011, but the ‘economy’ will much sooner. but it depends. is it the real economy or is the memorex version?

  15. Andy T says:

    Well….that 200 day SMA that everyone loves to talk about, but which is chronically exposed to “false breaks,” comes in at 923. I’m expecting to see some buying in front of 923, because ‘that’s what you’re supposed to do with moving averages.’ [buy the retest of the "breakout."]

    Now, if the market were to break down below this simplistic average it will begin to look a lot like one of many false breakouts in the long and illustrious career of the 200 DMA. – AT.

  16. call me ahab says:

    My impression is that the destruction of the $ is almost completely assured- because of-

    stimulus, QE, TARP, TALF and staggering budget defecits as far as the eye can see- confidence in the USA will be shattered- and rightly so- because we will not be able to get out from under-

    be prepared to have a lower standard of living- not necessarily a bad thing- I live small anyway- but it will be a different thing-

    “the truth shall set you free” – Jesus

  17. FrancoisT says:

    How many jobs would be created now if the stimulus package had been directed to infrastructure and entrepreneurship instead of going to the financial system?

    There will be no real recovery until jobs come back in significant numbers. Oh! We also need a real solution to the housing debacle, ie. principals need to come down, regardless of what the lenders want or not. Since the banksters have proved once again that they own Congress lock and barrel, it would be dangerous to hold your breath dreaming of a recovery.

  18. dsawy says:

    People should look to history as their guide here. After debt deflations, people cease spending money on discretionary, non-essential goods and services – they do more for themselves as their earning power is compressed. The problem is that economists for too long made the case that the US could enjoy prosperity by becoming a service-oriented economy, not making anything. We still see economists making these projections even now.

    The one hope I have for this downturn is that economists are finally and fully discredited, ignored and lose their jobs. A group of people more useless, I’ve not seen in my lifetime. If economists were truly unemployed, then perhaps their pet theories and prognostications would start to exhibit some reality and common sense.

    The one labor market assumption that is about to be broken in this downturn is that “government jobs are safe jobs.” With tax revenues collapsing, there’s finally going to be real lay-offs in the government sector, and hiring for cushy, permanent government jobs is going to get much tighter going forward.

  19. Transor Z says:

    BTW, my post at 12:09 should have had a big fat *snark* tag. Not sure if that came across with the cowbell reference alone.

  20. karen says:

    Andy, i think 907 will stop the drop, if we get there this week… might buy sso around 26, or i might just watch and wait…

  21. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Speaking of job openings…I thought the job numbers were still awful…especially the revision by >50k additional job losses..

    http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

    What am I missing?

  22. cvienne says:

    @karen (1:58)

    I’m inclined to go along with your call there…

    If you look at the SPX on an “hourly” chart, and do a 144 EMA on that…that’s where it seems to be getting support lately…

    I, like Andy, like those ‘fibonnaci’ numbers (89,144, 233, etc.)…

    When that EMA gets taken out swiftly to the downside, then that might shake things up a bit but for now, the rally seems to be in tact…

  23. Onlooker from Troy says:

    dsawy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/job-openings-vs-unemployed/#comment-179001

    Agreed re: service jobs. The idea that we can service ourselves to prosperity while not producing enough of real value has been a deluded pipe dream. Yes there will always be a service sector. Always was. The general store was/is needed. But it only existed because of the miners/cattle ranchers/farmers/manufacturers, etc.

    We’ve got to have a balanced economy and we have to face up to the reality of the global economy. It’s not the 50s and 60s anymore where we’re the top dog that can call all the shots and dominate the world.

    I don’t know how many dog walking businesses will be thriving in the near future. And a lot more people will be cutting their own grass. Etc.

  24. cvienne says:

    @Onlooker from Troy

    Re: I don’t know how many dog walking businesses will be thriving in the near future. And a lot more people will be cutting their own grass. Etc.

    Come on people…BE SMART LIKE ME…Train your dog to cut the grass!

  25. dead hobo says:

    karen Says:
    June 3rd, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    Andy, i think 907 will stop the drop, if we get there this week

    reply:
    ————–
    I think the S&P is going to 885 fairly quickly, then it will drop more but at a slower pace for several weeks. The rally is over. Look at the S&P trading patterns today. They are completely different as compared to the past several days and weeks. No floors being protected or odd jumps. It looks like the invisible hand in action. The down pattern today looks normal. The patterns of the past several weeks looked aberrant.

    With oil falling so much today and the dollar strengthening, I’m guessing that a leveraged liquidity trade is drying up. Early adopters are taking their balls and going home. I’m wondering if there will be a fall at the end of the day that is the mirror image of the odd rallies that have been so frequent just before the close, as of late.

    I think S&P 800 is a given, and maybe lower, before the end of June. Given the poor economy, only a fool would expect the markets to rise past the GM bankruptcy high.

  26. cvienne says:

    @dead hobo

    per your call…

    Keep in mind that the OPEN (on April 1st) for the quarter was something like 798…

    If you look at the S&P on a “quarterly” basis, there have been SIX CONSECUTIVE quarterly declines…This quarter is not in the books yet, but if the S&P closed under that, the string would stretch to 7…

    So I’m not saying anything, but it sure would be awfully disheartening if, after all the talk of ‘green shoots’ lately, the quarter STILL didn’t manage to paint a black candle…

  27. DL says:

    DH @ 2:52

    Sure does look like $USD is due for a rally.

  28. dead hobo says:

    DL, I still think FAZ at $9.85 was a sure thing, only not as quickly as I originally expected. It should go into the green in a few weeks and better later. If anyone shorts today and tomorrow and doesn’t get chopped to pieces, it will be to off to the races again.

  29. karen says:

    dead hobo, currently, i do not see the spx getting to 880, it will look across the valley.. naturally, i will take this day by day… but that is my present outlook. So, you think i’m a fool do you? : )

  30. Andy T says:

    Right on Cue….from CNBC.com
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    As US Dollar Tumbles Further, Here’s What Investors Can Do

    With weakness in the dollar expected to continue, investors are rethinking their plans across virtually the entire spectrum of asset classes. As would be expected with a declining US currency, commodities are soaring, both in the materials themselves and the companies dependent on them.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Nice timely article CNBC….perhaps this would have been better mentioned several weeks ago…..
    The “news follows the trend.” Never forget it.

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  32. dead hobo says:

    karen Says:
    June 3rd, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    dead hobo, currently, i do not see the spx getting to 880, it will look across the valley.. naturally, i will take this day by day… but that is my present outlook. So, you think i’m a fool do you? : )

    reply:
    ————-
    Not in a bad way. If the economy were better I would agree. There’s no topside beyond 950 and that looked contrived with GM that high. Markets, to me, need about a 20% minimum realistic trading range with a little extra ‘exuberance’ cushion on both sides. Right now, the only way to move is down and the direction won’t change until a bottom is hit.

    Maybe at the start of Q3 if earnings announcements look promising and surprising macro news has real green shoots, then that might cause a turn up. Otherwise, I think we’ll be is a big zig zag and some new spin will trigger the next turn up below S&P 800. Current news is horrible and the spinners look tired of spinning the same old stories.

  33. DL says:

    dead hobo,

    As a general proposition, shorting XLF is better than buying FAZ, for periods longer than a week, and certainly for periods longer than a month. That idea, however, seems to be very unpopular among those who contribute to this blog.

  34. I-Man says:

    @ AT:

    Shockingly enough… 923 is also gap support on SPX from Monday’s open…

    What a coinckydink?

  35. karen says:

    DL, I know I posted some negative opinions on FAZ from myself and from other sources.. I think I called FAZ “funky” and Andy called it a money vampire (or maybe that was about something else), and mentioned that SKF may be the better short etf option again…

  36. karen says:

    and to our superhero, I previously thot the I stood for Invest*

    interesting novel, btw. how old were you when you first read that i wonder..

  37. ben22 says:

    the rally is not over, saying it is over b/c the economy really isn’t better is to basically misunderstand the entire move up that we have had since 3/6.

    Rosenberg gave some data recently that shows that in the past after a market rally this large we are typically 9 months past a recession. When are people going to realize this whole countertrend move has been based on emotion?

    see you all at spx 1k… or higher.

  38. DL says:

    karen @ 3:22

    On the subject of SKF. I have tried shorting a variety of ultralong and ultrashort ETF’s. In each case, the “icon” comes up stating that it can’t be borrowed. But there is one exception, and that is SKF. Interesting. Could probably do a “naked” short of SKF, or a short of SKF coupled with a short of XLF.

  39. karen says:

    ben22, you misspoke, you meant the rally “is not f*cking over… you’ll see.” that’s what i emailed a friend earlier today… : ) hope no one here was confusing me for a nice girl.

  40. dead hobo says:

    ben22 Says:
    June 3rd, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    the rally is not over, saying it is over b/c the economy really isn’t better is to basically misunderstand the entire move up that we have had since 3/6.

    reply:
    ———–
    No, I understand that rally perfectly. Part relief rally caused by massively oversold conditions matched with sentiment that didn’t support levels that low once the terror passed. Then came some odd trading that made the S&P run up look phony. Too many floors and jumps to look random. This effect goosed the relief rally higher. Unfortunately, the economic fundamentals don’t support a market this high. Even S&P 800 is a little high for these fundamentals, according to those who use earnings and multipliers to guess appropriate market levels.

  41. Mannwich says:

    Looks like Bob Toll thinks the rally may be getting a little long in the tooth. Can’t blame him, really. Great time to dump that Toll stock on some unsuspecting dupes and rubes. Can’t imagine the homebuilders truly recovering any time soon, despite what the likes of Ara “Music Man” Hovnanian says…….

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/housing-rebound-as-traded-by-insider.html

  42. call me ahab says:

    Ben22 & Karen-

    please enlighten me- why do you think the rally has further to go and what will be the impetus for it to reverse??

  43. dead hobo says:

    There’s still 15 mimutes to go. It looks lik a bunch of computers decided to hold 925 and some are trying to pump, but there’s probably not enough volume to make it stick. Maybe the computers on the other side who are supposed to buy into the pumps have been turned off? Last week, it would have gone to 932 or more. 10+ minutes to go.

  44. Andy T says:

    I-Man…

    It’s amazing how many coincidences occur….Anyone else notice the DX bounce off the 61.8% retrace almost perfectly? Still a little early to tell if that level is going to hold longer term. It was probably just a coincidence anyway……

  45. I-Man says:

    The rally is… what it is. Guilty until proven innocent. Fundies and emotions aside, it needs to prove itself at 923… and not by some weak, end of day, contrived, Bob Ross inspired print.

    AT is right… the history of the 200 dma is not an illustrious one. I’m sure there are enough folks around here who have been burned by it before. In my eyes, this whole push over the 200 dma on SPX looks so contrived there is no way that I could get long on this “breakout”…

    but if I’m wrong no big deal and I will look to ride it wherever it goes. But give me CONVICTION and I’m happy to ride it and close my shorts. Do any of you… objectively… have evidence of conviction in the recent tape? Conviction of the sort that will take us meaningfully higher then the 200 day MA?

    @ Karen:

    You must read fast. I was 16.

  46. ben22 says:

    ahab,

    this has been a technical rally from the start, there was no fundamental reason for it to go this far, nor should we make an argument now that fundamentals don’t support these prices. All the “smart money” has been looking for a pullback, a sizeable one at that, since this started and they haven’t gotten it. As it goes on longer there is risk in staying out as hedgies and pensions were very heavy in cash and bonds. My main thesis now is that sentiment is just not at an extreme for me to believe this is over (yesterday I linked up to a Barron’s Online article and I noticed that the top 5 searched articles were all of bullish nature, my fav being why CSCO is going to take off now that it’s going into the DOW). We are getting closer to extremes but not there yet. I’d like to see a lot more bullish posts here as well, not happening yet, but it should. I really don’t have much else to say about it, when emotions get more extreme to the bullish side you’ll know we are at a top. Trying to say this is the top based on some fundamental argument, p/e, or whatever you’d like to choose, well, good luck if that’s your strategy.

  47. karen says:

    Andy, according to my son, the philosoper/logician, it would be amazing if there weren’t many coincidences considering the number of overlapping factors in our lives… it’s the laws of probability, i guess… : )

  48. karen says:

    may i take ben22s argument one step further and simpler? the stock market is not based on fundamentals : )

  49. ben22 says:

    AT,

    We both know that’s not a coincidence.

    I built on my UUP long yesterday. I’m down slightly from my average basis right now but with 93% bulls on the Euro and 3% bulls for the dollar, many more articles and news buzz about the coming collapse of the buck, the renewed talk of inflation, and the fibbo retrace were good enough for me to go long. Early as usual but a stop is in place if I’m wrong. Time will tell.

  50. ben22 says:

    karen,

    I should have just put it that way.

  51. Andy T says:

    Karen,

    To quote Master Oodway of Kung Fu Panda [a must see film]:

    “….there are no coincidences.”

  52. dead hobo says:

    ben22,

    Just in case you’re wrong, what do you plan to tell your customers?

  53. Onlooker from Troy says:

    ben22

    You think that the rally will continue in the face of a rebounding dollar? Just wondering as the inverse relationship has been pretty strong and commodities/oil would suffer.

  54. dead hobo says:

    Looks like the end of day pump held, but they worked a lot harder today for it. Last week and before you would have seen a couple of vertical lines. Let’s see if enough pump money returns to boost it again. It obviously took today off, judging from the patterns.

  55. call me ahab says:

    onlooker-

    good point

  56. karen says:

    Just a reminder, in the old days a strong national dollar meant a strong national economy… relationships come and go… especially over long periods of time.

  57. dead hobo says:

    I take it back. It looks like major massive volume came it right before the end. I don’t have access to tools that can provide details, but it looks like it concentrated at the close again, just like recent past. Oh well, it’s still a phony market.

  58. DL says:

    “…in the old days a strong [currency] meant a strong national economy… ”

    Isn’t that true now?

  59. karen says:

    anyone think crude can get back to and normalize in a 48-54 range?

  60. DL says:

    “anyone think crude can get back to and normalize in a 48-54 range?”

    It may go there for a little while. But normalize? No way.

  61. Onlooker from Troy says:

    I understand that re: the dollar, karen. But if you think we’ve got a strong economy in our near future with dollar that isn’t being debased, and a strong stock market to go with it; well, let’s just say I’d be surprised by that.

  62. dead hobo says:

    karen Says:
    June 3rd, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    anyone think crude can get back to and normalize in a 48-54 range?

    reply:
    ————-
    Only if excessive speculative cash is removed from the markets. Today might be a turn or might be a pause. This morning I would have said turn, but the end of day pump in the stock market is making me think my reasoning was hasty. If oil continues to rise, this will mean the dollar is falling and the rate on the 10 year is rising. All bubble stuff and dollar troubles.

  63. Andy T says:

    Fairly classic last 25 minutes if you follow intraday trading…they set off some stops at 3.36 on the marginally lower low, then after they snatched up that length, they jammed into the close….probably setting off stops the other way….genius!

  64. Onlooker from Troy says:

    I’m sure it will embolden the dip buyers tomorrow. Is that all we get for a pull back? (rhetorical)

  65. karen says:

    Onlooker, you are right. I think we have a dollar that is being debased (as are many other fiat currencies, btw.) Our economy is in serious hurt and has been headed on this one way road to hell for years. So it’s not going to turnaround on a dime… that said, the sell-off to 666 was as unprecedented a fall as it was an opportunity to buy quality stocks (if there is such a thing) as there ever was in my lifetime.

  66. I-Man says:

    @ AT: Well played for sure… I almost thought they werent going to do it today.

    @ Karen: Dont know if you saw it or not, but I posted some thoughts re: USO and DTO on the other thread… I’ll bring it over:

    I pulled out of UCO when it broke gap support this morning at 12.50 and flipped into DTO and snagged some of that at 79.

    If you and karen are correct, then I expect to see USO take out its next gap support at 35.50… after filling the gap from Mondays open which it looks like it just did.

    Interesting huge bearish price channel on the daily chart of DTO… dont quite know what to make of it. If this is a short term bottom in DTO, as we have curled up again above the bottom boundary of that channel, then it could trade down to 65 or so if that pattern is true. I dont know though… there is alot of space between here and the top of that channel around 150-160… Definitely a good risk reward if the geopolitical risk card doesnt get pulled out.

    We shall see. Until then, I’m content to ride DTO with a trailer. Looking to add another third at 82 if that holds up as support.

  67. Andy T says:

    “anyone think crude can get back to and normalize in a 48-54 range?”

    Karen, your philosopher son would probably suggest there is no such thing as “normal”….

  68. DL says:

    karen @ 4:25

    “…the sell-off to 666 was …an opportunity to buy quality stocks … as there ever was in my lifetime.

    That sounds more like long-term investor talk than a viewpoint from a short-term trader that I believe you are.

    (There’s still a possibility that we go back to SPX 700 before this is over).

  69. hopeImwrong says:

    Re: 200 day moving average. Since the average is still declining, the significance of a move above it is lessened.

    Re: sentiment. I’m seeing lots of bears and previously bearish people (bloggers, newsletters, columnists) switching their stances. One of the most surprising is Depew at Minyanville. If the market turned here, it wouldn’t seem like it was “out of sync” with sentiment. Bullishness is really building fast recently. It’s building to the point where I think I need to start scaling in (warning sign for longs). This is the range (950-1050) where people who sold lower will start to stress out if they are watching the market.

    Re: crash II or no? My guess for the pain trade scenario is, market continues up, without a correction (for buyers) for the cash crowd that is starting to stress out. Divergences build (dollar up and stocks up at same time, for example). The market rolls over from a higher level just about when the 200 day MA starts to flatten out. This ambiguity is just enough for the cash crowd to keep buying all way down to a re-test, with a false break below the March low to get the weak hands to sell. This is the case against a crash II scenario. After the re-test, [wide] range bound volatility will drive J6P bonkers.

  70. I-Man says:

    What is being… in time?

    JK… a little philosphy joke.

    And back to oil, dollar, SPX, etc…

    As Left keeps hammering… whether you are long dollar, short equities, or short crude… it is all the same trade. I agree. Cautiously.

  71. Transor Z says:

    Anybody else note the teensy 54k revision in the ADP unemployment number from -491k to -545k today? For those of you keeping score at home, that’s an 11% error. But at least May 6th was a big rally day.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/adp-really/

  72. ben22 says:

    hobo,

    I’m only talking about my own money. I don’t really trade like this for clients, my home office would never allow me to do it. I’d be a “market timer”. Most of my clients remain very heavy in cash or short term bonds at this point but they aren’t down from the 07 peak so I could care less about this rally and none of them have fired me…. yet, though I’m sure some will as we get to the top of this. Some of my youngest clients have stocks and have done really well this year, I go through what I think could happen and what I think they should do and they can follow the advice or not. It’s their money. What I’m talking about doing here is for my money only, I have not been chasing this rally with client money.

    RE: dollar and the economy,

    I suppose the dollar could start a rally while the market is still rallying but I don’t think that can last very long. Who knows, I’m not a currency expert, I just don’t like to be where everyone else is. My view that the dollar goes up doesn’t really involve me thinking the economy is going to get better. Perhaps part of the new normal, though I think it will only last a short time, is that we have a strong $ and a weak economy. Maybe that is what El Erian is saying in between all of his sales talk on CNBC.

    Karen,

    I think oil will go to that range when the rally starts to reverse, fwiw. Then again, I never thought we’d be going over $60 this fast either.

  73. karen says:

    DL, i’m all about opportunity… i don’t make this crazy market.. i just try to see where it gets out of whack.. besides you know i’ve been long term gold since under $300 : )

    well, i was just wondering what a “reality based” price for crude might be.. i know it’ll depend on the dollar… but i think the entire world would like to see the dollar stabilize for a bit…

  74. The Curmudgeon says:

    As for the dollar, do you believe me, or your lyin’ eyes?:

    “In recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen,” Bernanke said. “These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.”

    The budget deficit this year is projected to reach $1.85 trillion, equivalent to 13 percent of the nation’s economy, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    “Either cuts in spending or increases in taxes will be necessary to stabilize the fiscal situation,” Bernanke said in response to a question. “The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt.”

    >…does he mean it won’t monetize anymore debt? Perhaps because he’s getting an inkling that the debt already monetized is beginning to stink/sink? $1.75 trillion of monetized debt, roughly the deficit this year, is being or has been monetized. Yes, buying GSE debt is the same as monetizing it, when you are on the hook for it already anyway.

    I don’t know nothing ’bout trading stocks, but I know this: The fiat currency regime dating from the seventies until now is on the cusp of destruction. Be passport ready.

  75. leftback says:

    “i think the entire world would like to see the dollar stabilize for a bit…”

    Currency volatility seems to be THE fact of life in bear markets. We are going to have to get used to the $ going up and down and driving all markets as it does so. More down than up, one would assume over the long run.

    @Mannwich, we don’t have scantily clad baristas here in Manhattan. Although it’s not high summer yet.

    Oil: $50 crude would be about a 50% retrace of this move, so that seems like it might be a good target for now. Assuming that the $ really has made a meaningful turn upwards here. Supply/demand really supports a correction.

  76. dead hobo says:

    I really don’t understand why anyone would use any predictive tools to play this market. I thought the game was over after the bankruptcy rally but I may have been wrong. Since this rally is substantially manufactured, I don’t understand why any of you would even be in the market, since the close is contrived and so has been much of the daily activity. If there were massive asset balloons that weren’t going to explode for years, I’d be right in there. This market only has upside only if the volume players bring it in. I’m guessing Uncle Stupid has made it illegal for TARP recipients to short the market and virtuous to stop shorts from bringing it down. The stock market is currently an abomination.

  77. Mr. C. Cheese says:

    Guess Mrs. Cheese will still be ‘Dancing the Cootch’
    I tell her it won’t be for long. But after looking at this char…..t I don’t have the heart to tell her.

  78. greg says:

    dead hobo….there is nothing really different about this market than markets of the past. The market hasn’t really been about fundamentals since the late 90′s. You may have thought it was, like when the Banks were all rising on great earnings, but we now know the earnings weren’t really earnings at all.
    So we are in the market for the same reasons as always…to make money. You just gotta take what the market gives you, beside how boring would it be if the thing strictly moved on fundamentals?

  79. Onlooker from Troy says:

    Thanks ben. I really am trying to figure this out, and I realize the disconnect from fundamentals can continue. The dollar relationship and dynamics are at the heart of things so I’m trying to make sure I understand, as best as possible.

    I suppose the market could continue to 1000 based on the “gotta get in” crowd even as the dollar firms. It’s only about 7% up from here. It just seems hard for that to happen as commodities weaken. Could the banks get hot again after their secondaries are done? I suppose. Something else other than energy and other commodities will have to get hot for that to happen.

    Maybe the REITs :) Damn things just wouldn’t go down today. Weird day.

  80. call me ahab says:

    from Jesse”s Americain’ Cafe-

    ADP: Department of Records Revision

    “April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000.”

    Is an 11% month over month change in an employment number a revision or a rewrite?

    The ADP report is supposed to be based on actual reports from private industry.

    This pervasive pattern of ‘good numbers’ that result in stock market rallies and the massaging of public opinion, only to be replaced by downward revisions thirty days later, with little notice or quote, is cynical manipulation of the media at best, and a dangerous slide into social engineering by an increasing distortion of ‘reality’ at worst.

    If you have not read the novel or seen the movie lately, 1984 is worth a look.

  81. thetanman says:

    The sentiment here is actually pretty sunny-in a relative sense. A week ago, if you wrote something positive or not bearish enough, you got your head torn off. In fact, we might be at irrational exuberance levels-again in a relative sense.

  82. Pat G. says:

    Like wow man, that red and blue graph is so…psychedelic. Get those “green shoots” away from me. lol

  83. [...] What of this? Oh yeah, facts don’t matter in the world of conservative think-tanks: [...]