Ron Griess of The Chart Store takes a close look at SPX profitability and comes away unimpressed:
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Astonishing . . .
While yesterday's US stock market close was poor, Asia and Europe didn't follow today as debt in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc... rallied, their CDS narrowed and stocks bounced. The Greek finance minister said January tax revenues came in above expectations and that spending was below target for the month and said "that means the deficit reduction for January is well within what we have promised." The euro is rising in turn. Also helping is the story that Trichet is headed to the European Union leaders summit a day early in order to address Greece's problems even as the Greek finance...
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June 17th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Why does every chart look the same these days?
June 17th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Where’s Evel Knievel?
June 17th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Where is Travis Pastrana?
June 17th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
So how much “cost savings” can you do before you start hurting your business? Job losses to continue so the operating earnings can continue and reported earnings to continue their down trend. No demand is magically going to appear…. manufacturing is in the toilet as evidence.
June 17th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Mannwich:
Evel is 6′ under. He’s a leading indicator.
June 17th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Barry here is an interesting article: Seems up your statistical analysis alley. http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/107201/supply-and-demand?sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
June 17th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Quiet here today. The long bond putting in another solid performance.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
@LB
T-minus 3 days & counting…
June 17th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
@LB,
TLT a few days ago at 88 and change was smart, I thought about taking that for a trade but never acted on it.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
This market today is….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Off to enjoy the day.
I was in and out of TLT a couple of weeks ago. Didn’t stay with it long enough.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
The Q2 numbers are going to have to exceed the Q1 to support the notion that the second derivative is indicating the beginnings of a turnaround — and even if it does (unless it is a huge improvement), it only improves the likelihood, it guarantees nothing.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Super quiet…
June 17th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Manny,
your srs touched 21.50 today.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
@I-man@Manny
Look closer…
June 17th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I think Karen was looking for a bounce off around 902 if I’m not mistaken, so far so good on that call. this could be the final push up to new recovery highs. I think the mid day high print so far was 959 on the S&P.
When this rally is over I think we are going to fall hard.
But no worries, our pres. is talking about “robust” growth.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
@ben22: Saw that. Been loving my FAZ as well. Wondering if I should take my profits but don’t want to get out too soon. Is karen still holding this blood-sucker?
@cvienne: What are you seeing that I’m not?
June 17th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
@cvienne: What I’m seeing is the rally running out of gas Doesn’t seem to have any impetus to go much higher, but I could be wrong. Been wrong a lot lately!
June 17th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
@Manny
I’m seeing what I saw yesterday…
We dork around between here and 914 until 3:10…
Then it ramps to a 920-922 close…
We print 934 by the end of the week (or Monday/Tue)…then we get to wag out fingers at Franklin until September opex…
June 17th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Think you’re going to get 3 for 3 today cvienne?
June 17th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
@Thor
I’m not so interested in 3 for 3 as I am getting 1 for 1 once this thing finally rolls over…
I’m all in cash, except I did take a tiny nibble on SPY 93 calls for June at .25 cents…
I plan to either ride them to par or take a complete loss…
So basically, I’m just as bored as the rest of you now
June 17th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
ben22 @ 1:16
Yeah, I think we go to 960 from here. After that, I don’t know.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
@cvienne, @ karen
How do you come up with the numbers. Any books that I can read or sites?
June 17th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
@ Manny Re: FAZ
You gotta be willing to let it trade down to 4.80 maybe even 4.60 for this swing… if you cant stomach that then I would bounce now.
Longer term, I think you’re golden. I’m still a holder FWIW.
Still a holder of SRS and QID also.
As per CV and B22… I agree on a last push higher, but I differ in that I believe it will carve a lower high, and not a new high.
I think you are right about opex CV, that will be the catalyst to mark the wave down. I gotta think that the MM’s have sold calls hard into the last couple of weeks strength… should pin the upside around 935-940 on SPX, but we’ll see.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Anybody else here like the idea of Barry setting up a daily market banter thread to keep a contiguous conversation going without losing it in other threads and cluttering them up?
I know that one counter argument to that is that you can go elsewhere if you want to talk the market. But it’s going to happen in these threads anyway so why not give it it’s own place so those that aren’t interested don’t have to suffer it. And we’ve got a good core group here that would get lost in some other venue.
thoughts?
June 17th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
@tony tony
I can’t speak for karen…but I try to use a lot of different things all brewed together…
Technically, I like fibonacci numbers…and I like EW patterns (but I’m not even close to being as the same league as Andy T on that)…
But all of that is really just hocus pocus, unless you have a “feeling” on how those levels fit in with sentiment (and that can change quite quickly)…
For example, this is opex week…The old syaing is that you oftentimes get a trend reversal on either Tuesday or Wednesday of opex week…So I plug that into my overall brew…
It’s an INEXACT SCIENCE to say the least…I just hope I’m right more than 50% of the time…
June 17th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
@I-Man (1:44)
FYI – I’ve got it pinned between 930.17 and 936.40
June 17th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I-man,
I could see how that could happen but it could be truncation then and that spells tons of trouble (carving a lower high), there should be a final push of extremes as part of the countertrend rally which is why I’m looking for the new high, among other things, before new lows are made in the next wave down.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
@Onlooker: The daily banter thread exists every day, no matter what. Makes sense to have a home for it.
I-Man, agreed on looking for a lower high. No 960 for me. This seems like the best set-up for shorting we have had so far during this rally, although we have certainly been fooled before.
June 17th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
@OT
I think you’ve got a good point…
If there were a “market thread”, people who wanted to pass some time there could do so…That would preserve the purity of the topic of the thread…
From my standpoint, it doesn’t really bother me to do BOTH within any given thread, but if that bothers a majority of bloggers, then maybe that solution should be explored…
June 17th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
@cvienne..thanks
any books you recommend to learn more about this (Fibonacci and ew)
@ andy t @ leftback or others
feel free to add ..I really want to learn more
thanks to all
June 17th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
fwiw, i sold my faz within 30 minutes of the market open for 5.12.. not willing to hold a short position on institutions backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government…
June 17th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
OT – Yes, I would agree. I know I’m one of the worst offenders when it comes to going off on a tangent about something so an open thread would be very useful.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Karen – did you catch it close to 5.37?
June 17th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Onlooker,
I back this.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Covered my shorts in the morning as well..I think we might see a H&S pattern. So the next high will be around 925-930. Then time to short the market.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
@ Onlooker-
Of course I would like that… it bothers my conscience to be OT, but talking tape with you guys is more addictive than crack.
Dont know what BR thinks, but I suspect he wouldnt go for it. I’m actually surprised by his tolerance of our tape talk in the comments section. I know he puts alot of work into his posts- so I’m sure he would appreciate the comments being strictly on topic.
I try… but like I said, talking shop with yall is like crack for I-Man’s tangential trading noodle.
That said, he’s got a pretty all star compilation of traders and market observers in this little community, and it would be nice to have a forum where we can only talk the tape. Problem is, how do you regulate it and keep too many asshats off the board so it doesnt devolve into the yahoo boards. Dont know the answer to that.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
cvienne @ 1:58
Running the blog is too much like herding cats, for that level of structure.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Tonytony,
there is only one book you really need if you want to learn wave:
http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-Principle-Behavior-Advantage/dp/0471988499/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1245261927&sr=8-1
You must be ready to completely commit to it though. It will take a lot of time on your part. You don’t just pick up wave analysis if you want to be any good at it.
@Onlooker,
Not a bad point at all, however, it is TBP, not just markets.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Might be super quiet today but look what’s in store!
Options players see VIX at 50 by August!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aonkhWjIViEA
June 17th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
@ben22
In order for that to happen, I think it’s oil and energy that would have to be the catalyst for the move…
The oil chart isn’t broken, but it’s looking weaker than it has in previous pullbacks during the rally…
Also, re: (what leftback has been hammering)…I think that when the 10y treasury hit 4% and then pulled back off of that, that signalled that the end of the rally is soon…
I’ve said for weeks now that when GS & MS paid back the TARP that the rally would be finished (and there were some headlines about that today as well)…
June 17th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
I-man says:
Of course I would like that… it bothers my conscience to be OT, but talking tape with you guys is more addictive than crack.
I feel the exact same way about it.
As to how you regulate, I’ve actually been trying to come up with an idea for a blog site that I want to start that does just what OT is talking about. It would need to be a pay site to really make it work well. There is not a site that is for stocks/economics similar to a facebook or a YouTube but there could be.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
@ Tony Tony:
Start with the older works on trading, ie: “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”, and anything by Richard Wyckoff, “Studies in Tape Reading” and “Stock Market Technique 1 and 2″ are priceless.
Then on to “Market Wizards” by Schwager and “Trading for a Living” by Alexander Elder.
That will give you a solid foundation before delving too deeply into the Black Arts of Technical Analysis, Candlestick Charting, Chart Patterns, and Elliot Wave Theory.
Just my two cents.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
@cvienne
“I’ve said for weeks now that when GS & MS paid back the TARP that the rally would be finished (and there were some headlines about that today as well)…”
Agreed, I predicted the same thing.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
cvienne, onlooker, Ben22, etc.
Speaking of tangents. I must say, this is the first time in my professional career that I have met a group of people who use as many acronyms as I do in mine. Now I know how not tech people feel when I get too technical in conversations. The most confusing thing is that a number of the acronyms you use in trading are very similar to the one’s we use in networking.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
I-man,
“Reminiscences” and “Market Wizards” are both good, but mostly for inspiration and overall context.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
ben22 @ 2:09
You want to start a blog and charge people to comment?
Where do I sign up?
June 17th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
@cvienne, lefty,
Certainly see the points you guys are making and making note. For now though, I’m going to stick by my initial call from months ago. I had some more of my longs trigger sells yesterday via trailing stops so I’ve got current long exposure of only 13% at this point. I don’t want to get heavy short until the probability makes more sense and I’m not seeing that just yet.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
@ben22
There actually is kind of a facebook for stock picking…It’s called “theupdown”…
You get something like a million dollar fake account and you see how you do…You are limited to 20% of your cash in any one position and you get commission charges (fake ones) for the trades you make…
It’s kind of cool for awhile, but I got bored with it in the end…
June 17th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
b22
a social network for market/econ/finance junkies? hmm . . .
DL-
herding of cats is a good analogy- TBP definitely is the TBP- many, many topics all interrelated- for example- there was a discussion of sports and how the debt and the current economy could force a contraction of teams and bankruptcy-
many other examples like that as well- well rounded discussion of many topics
June 17th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
DL,
You making fun?
I had a vision of more of a trading site that can be personalized and used by pro’s, so yeah, I was thinking a pay to play, this way you are getting comments you want instead of having to scroll through to find the right people. Seems to me there is demand for it, and a small subscription fee of $30/month for example, isn’t much to ask to be able to share ideas and strategies with other pro’s or traders in a focused setting. Strictly a market site but with links to econ blogs, etc.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
a social network for market/econ/finance junkies? hmm . . .
Exactly.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
@ cvienne 1;54pm
“FYI – I’ve got it pinned between 930.17 and 936.40″
I presume the 930 is the May 8 high from the previous wave and the 936 is the 61.2% retrace of the cirrent downswing? Seems reasonable to me.
Looks like it’s having a hard time with the 200SMA at 917 but I’m sure a decent last hour pump can take care of that.
Short Man
June 17th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Question for all of you – Are you guys usually bears or are you sometimes bears and sometimes bulls depending on the market?
June 17th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
@Thor
I just want to make money…
June 17th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Thor,
Only talking about me here.
I trade the market I see. So I’m not a bull, or a bear. I don’t think any good trader is either or. If you count a bear as someone that doesn’t think March was THE low, then yeah, I’m a bear, but was almost 100% long going into this rally. Falling in love with either sthance is a death trap.
I like to be contrarian.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
@Short Man (2:21)
Wow I didn’t even realize that 930.17 was the May 8th high (until you just pointed it out)…The same number is a FIBO 50% from todays low back to the high……..hmmmm….
And the “zone” between both those numbers was the cascading GAP from the Monday open…
Hmmmmmmmmmm….
June 17th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Thanks guys, that’s what I thought. I think that’s where Franklin get’s confused, he’s under the impression that you’re all hyper perma-bears. My assumption from listening to you guys go back and forth is that you all trade the market as it is. Most of your rants are when the market isn’t behaving the way it should – ie: “less bad” news jumps the market up 200 points.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
ben22 @ 2:20
“You making fun?”
Me?…. you talkin’ to ME…??
I would never do such a thing.
(Ha).
June 17th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
This site is great, including the fact that you have to wade thru threads to find the banter. A daily market banter thread would become an ugly mess. More idiots, less substance, more ‘twitter-level’ crap.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Looks like a triple diamond at Chamonix – you know, the ones where you are in mortal danger if you screw up during the run…
I think the parallel is fitting in more ways that shape alone.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
@ Thor:
Bias is inhibitive to making money in trading… the pitfalls along that road will bankrupt your ass fast. Trade the tape you see, not the one you want to see.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
@Thor
The market RARELY behaves as it should…
So we’re not so much BEARS as just GRUMPY…:-)
June 17th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Grumpy Bears – Hah I like that. “Bears” means something totally different in my world. Always love hearing you guys throw that term around.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Look at what crude did from 10:20 until the 2:30 close…
Pretty good run…although it looks like a completed 5 wave on the finish…Andy?
June 17th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
@ Thor
I’m sure everywhere here makes money on the way up and on the way down (like BR). Schadenfrauden just allows a little bit of extra satisfaction in profiting at the expense of bulltards.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
The 5 wave up in crude took it exactly to a 50% fibo retrace from high it put in last Thursday…
June 17th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
@Thor: LB is no PermaBear and merely seeks capital gains.
We are famous here (in a strictly limited sense) for calling the March 6 “Leftback Bottom”, known to others as the Doug Kass bottom, but in actuality called in real time here by LB at 3.45pm (and one other individual as well).
June 17th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
DL,
lol, I guess when you only look at it as I have to pay to comment it seems dumb, but as Mr. G said the most valuable commodity is information. Lots of reps are coming to places like this now for information. I think plenty of pros would pay for a site like that. Maybe it’s just a dumb idea. I’d have to try it to find out.
Thor,
The reason any of us say anything at all to Franklin isn’t because we get upset that the market might jump up in the face of bad news. Seems like you just started coming here so I’ll fill you in: every few months during this entire move down since fall 07 somebody came to this site giving about the weakest data points imaginable to prove that anyone that had a bearish stance would be wrong. Franklin has basically been doing the same thing while often repeating the admin’s talking points. He has no clearly defined economic or investment thesis other than green shoots.
Sorry but most of here are going to call a spade a spade. My guess, he’ll be gone in the not too distant future and somebody else will replace him.
It’s not that I don’t want to hear a different point of view, not at all, it’s just that after reading most of his stuff over the last few months I came to the conclusion that he should be dismissed.
Cearly BR agrees, he tore him up in the thread yesterday if anyone went back and looked at it.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
This is an interesting discussion… it took me a long time to be able to exit a long and immediately go short the same thing at a moments notice.
There is something about human nature that makes you feel like you cant or shouldnt do that. Maybe its pride, or insecurity.
But once you overcome that, it can be very refreshing to say, be long something like DUG for a few points and then flip into DIG immediately thereafter if the tape warrants it. There are many market players who couldnt be able to do that. It all comes back to bias and getting too married to one particular idea or point of view. Gotta be able to flip at a moments notice.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Thor-
I have to add though- that I think most people who frequent this blog perceive there to be fundamental flaws in our economy- over-indebtedness, over-consumption-
and there is also- with a few outliers- a consensus- that the excessive risks taken by the TBTF banks- to benefit the corporate titans- was inexcusable and that the bailouts allowed the TBTF banks to avoid the consequnces of their actions- also- inexcusable
June 17th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
LB,
That was your bottom, btw, Kass made too many other calls for it to be his. You are as famous here as Kass is out there.
All this bottom talk and it might be time to fire up some Sir Mix a Lot on the office Ipod.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Ahab – I have to add though- that I think most people who frequent this blog perceive there to be fundamental flaws in our economy- over-indebtedness, over-consumption.
You already know you and I see eye to eye on this. I’ve stuck with this TBP (rather than all the other financial blogs I’ve given up on) because it’s very obvious that you all respect each other – and like Ben22 just said, it’s not as if you guys don’t want to hear a dissenting opinion, you just want a reasoned dissenting opinion. I’m especially impressed that even those of you who call F411 out the most do it in a respectful manner.
I’m sure many of you frequent other financial blogs as well and I’m also sure that we could all agree that TBP is heads and shoulders above everyone else.
June 17th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
anyone watching this:
MEA
??
June 17th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Question for the group:
Seems a lot of you are looking for the top in the very short term here, does anybody have any downside targets they are looking for by 10/31?
Will the March bottom hold or will it be something else?
I think I know what Karen thinks.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
gregh
You know I was having the same thoughts as I reflected on my proposal. A market thread would probably pull in a lot of the kind of crap you get at Yahoo, Marketwatch, etc. Too easy of a target. Whereas the spontaneous banter we get here might have the virtue of only really attracting the regulars who are interested in the daily posts but then spin off into other tangents.
So I think that’s where I come down on it unless it was in a more restricted and screened location where you could keep the nut balls out.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
well- thor- I have to admit- that I have thrown some less than flattering remarks franklin’s way- the words “fuck” and “yourself” were used-
I would like to say it didn’t make me feel better- but sadly- it did
June 17th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
@ben22 (3:02)
576
June 17th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Ahab – I can help you with that, something I’ve learned and practiced over the years. The best way to get back at someone, or to get under their skin, it not to yell at them or call them names, it’s to condescend to them, talk down to them, act as if you are above it all. If you think they’re acting like a child, then treat them like one – that usually does the trick.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
headline-
‘”Herculean Effort” by U.S. Consumers Only Making Small Dent in Debt Mountain’
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/265576/%22Herculean-Effort%22-by-U.S.-Consumers-Only-Making-Small-Dent-in-Debt-Mountain?tickers=XLY,%5EGSPC,%5Edji,SPY,DIA,EEM,FXI?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
walk away people- walk away- let the banks eat it
June 17th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
It’s 3:09 and I gotta go…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/looking-at-corporate-profits/comment-page-2/#comment-184016
…but I can’t stick around for the fun…Catch y’all later
June 17th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Time for the daily SPY tape watch… I got my eyes on those 5K share blocks.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
ahab,
as I’m sure most saw a few weeks ago, I did about the same to Franklin. He has a way of getting under my skin, sort of like yesterday when he accused BR of having blinders on. That though I just laughed at. He’s a know nothing college kid accusing the blog host and someone that was all over this recession of not seeing reality.
Cvienne,
well, I know exactly how you got that. : )
June 17th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
576
Wow, that would be pretty spectacular if put in by 10/31. You thinking another liquidity event to hasten the fall?
Not that I don’t think such a level is justified at some point.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
ben
re: MEA You talking ticker symbol? Strange time for a scrap metal recycler to catch an updraft. Maybe just a short squeeze?
June 17th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
“Will the March bottom hold or will it be something else? I think I know what Karen thinks.”
Karen thinks about the LB Bottom? How thrilling…
June 17th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Can anybody put to paper all these hotshots elastic salesmen picks?
June 17th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
ahab
I’m conflicted on the debt walkaway issue. On the one hand I’ve been watching this B.S. debt binge with people living beyond their means for years and the idea of most of them getting off the hook for that spending really pisses me off (sister-in-law exhibit A). But of course the banks have been handing out credit like candy and deserve to eat their losses. But then of course they’re not eating all their losses as the taxpayer has been so happy to bail them out. Arrggghhh!
So I struggle between wanting debtors’ prisons again (I realize the problems with it, but some of those people….), and wanting the banks to take it right up the back end.
It’s endlessly complicated by many other issues too, of course. But if there’s not enough pain associated with walking away, many will be right back at it at the first opportunity.
And as for that Yahoo article: Herculean effort my ass! They’ve largely been cut off and have no choice. And a lot of that is just plain default so how much “effort” is that? I’d really like to see a break down of that savings rate to see how much is paid down debt, how much default, and how much really new cash in the bank.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Yeah, MEA the ticker.
@LB,
lol, didn’t realize I put those together like that. Karen??
Over at ZH there is a very good paper by Hugh Hendry on display.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Sighing (not in pleasure, again) at some outrageous egos on this thread…
i’m weighing two options, one there is a floor under the market and we hit it today with our 5+% correction…
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/06/sixth-pullback-since-the-march-9th-low.html
or, two, the week could look like this…
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/06/another-month-another-lousy-expiration-week-for-the-bulls.html
sso didn’t hit my buy target so i’m in limbo on that. the usd has been a disappointment, but the week has 2 days left.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Expecting (but not trading) a moderate rally tomorrow. I like the 925-930 call into expiration.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
MEA
Huge volume. If you look at the history over the last several months you can see it’s been moving in huge chunks up and down; it was up 20% last Thurs. So the volume is the only real difference, it seems. Maybe a buy out coming. But surely that wouldn’t leak out.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Here it is if anyone is interested:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/16525584/Eclectica-Fund
June 17th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
well- onlooker- I hear you- but- the banks are the experts- they are the one’s setting the rules- they extended the credit- they pay the consequences-
if someone is hanging on- trying to do the right thing- while at the same time- the TBTF banks- who did all the wrong things- get the loving embrace of Uncle Sam- well- I start getting a bit pissed off-
I for one- if in a position- that my home was upside down by $200,000 to $300,000- would send my keys back to the bank- and- just to stick it to them one more time- I would stop paying any credit card bills-
eureka- I would now be able to save money- and rent a home- just like the one i gave up for less money per month- and the landlord takes care of the maintenance-
banks to not get my sympathy
June 17th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Karen,
Do you subscribe to Bespoke? Is it worth it if so?
Nice call yesterday on today’s action. You get a lot more right than wrong.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
could we finish in the red?
June 17th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
ben22, no i don’t subscribe; i’m sure it could be helpful, though, especially in your case where it might be a deductible business expense (?). i also enjoy the free updates at stocktiming.com… like most people I have a bookmarked list of sites i visit..
June 17th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
This has been the most relaxing-stressful day I can ever remember. I think I need a beer in the sun in 10 minutes.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
karen,
yeah, I subsribe to a lot and deduct them, not sure if I really want to add to my list though, it’s getting hard to keep up with it all as it’s grown over the years. I’ve been visiting stocktiming off and on ever since you posted a few links from there maybe 3 weeks ago.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
For anyone that follows/trades oil, T Boone Pickens came out and said that it would average $80/$85 barrell this year.
Since he also made the prescient call in August of last year that oil would never again go below $100, if you are long, it may be time to sell. If not, it may be time to short.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adaDQ3_GjDOU
June 17th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
karen,
I feel the same way. I hardly made a move in the market today, there was a nice breeze coming through the office windows and my phone has buzzed maybe 4 times all day.
June 17th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
curmudgeon-
hard to take T Boone Picken’s seriously after the oil call last year- all the hysteria- when it was nothing more than traders driving the price of oil up- you would think he would have his finger on the pulse a bit more than what he has demonstrated
June 17th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
@ben22:
Saw the Hendry paper at ZH also. Definitely good stuff. Raises some timely and important questions like . . . Are the central banks out of bullets until a double dip event opens the purses again? Sure has sounded like it here.
Meme of the day seems to be 1931.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
I hear ya ahab. There are definitely a lot of folks out there who should do just that; especially re: houses.
I’m quite conflicted on the whole thing. :\
June 17th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Ahab – yes, looks like we can finish in the red today
June 17th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
But it may be time to jump into bank stocks, as S&P just dropped their ratings on a whole slew of them, long after they all nearly went belly up in the crisis:
June 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. lenders slid after Standard & Poor’s reduced its credit ratings on 18 U.S. banks, including Wells Fargo & Co., Capital One Financial Corp. and KeyCorp, citing tighter regulation and increased market volatility. Keycorp dropped as much as 13 percent.
Five of the lenders, Carolina First Bank, Citizens Republic Bancorp Inc., Huntington Bancshares Inc., Synovus Financial Corp. and Whitney Holding Corp., were cut to “junk” status. High-yield, high-risk, or junk, debt is rated below BBB- by S&P.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHCsIvRse42Q
Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results…but doing the opposite of S & P and T. Boone Pickens would have made you a lot of money in the last year.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
TZ Says-
“Meme of the day seems to be 1931.”
talk about ominous
June 17th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Today was a great trading day. Markets put a doji star on the candle chart. That means we most probably go up tomorrow. But I think 925-928 will be tops tomorrow. Oil trade may not be over until 70 level is broken.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Transor: My interpretation of the rally in the long bonds is that the QE talk from the Fed is on the DL for now. Double dips, W-shaped recession seems almost a certainty,
- or maybe an endless U with little bumps in it, Japanese-style.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Does anyone know the last time we had three down days in a row?
June 17th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
|_______________________________________________________|
this kind of U- hat tip TZ
June 17th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
leftback, that’s mostly what i see in FAZ and SRS.. a seemingly endless coast along the bottom with little bumps in it. frustrating for the bears and buy-and-holders : )
June 17th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Leftback – I like the L shaped 90’s Japan scenario better. I think we’re going to skitter along the bottom here for years.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Have been in agreement with manhattanguy most of this week, and today is no exception. Bounce tomorrow.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Indeed Mistress… indeed.
Took a nasty punch to the nose with old MOS this morning. Had to bail on her. Closed out of ACI as well, which leaves me with zero longs from my late September debacle of last year where I tried to pull a Livermore and got my ass smoked like a spliff on the beach. I have since learned my lesson with going big on predictory nonsense.
Interesting spot for a close… right at 911 on SPX.
Longs would be nervous on a close like that and no bounce back at all after two sessions of carnage. I would be if I were long, but I wouldnt be long on a broken trend.
Once again, the $USD leaves us in a bit of a pickle… what was up with the mid day cliff dive??? UUP took it hard but looks like a very large buyer came in to pick up some weak shares at support. Any news to attribute to that move or just old fashioned intraday noise?
June 17th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
iphone software update is a available at itunes… mine is downloading now.. although, i actually want and “need” the new phone.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Karen – why do you need the new phone? Most of the better feature updates are in the OS. You didn’t buy a first gen one did you?
June 17th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
@LB: The Fed is buying again (the long bond and Agency debt). It’s the mole of the moment. In a couple of weeks, they’ll get back to the stock market, once they’ve settled down those all-important residential real estate rates (climbed nearly a hundred basis points in a couple weeks, now re-traced about a quarter of that).
June 17th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Thor, i have the first 4G iphone… it’s okay at loading internet pages, but the new would a worthwhile improvement… as i seem to use the internet feature of the phone more and more. also, no jokes, please, but my present phone no longer vibrates. and that was the mode i preferred to leave it in.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
@TC: David Rosenberg said the same thing in today’s letter I was saying yesterday — the natural demographic demand level for new houses is between 400k and 500k annualized. I am very interested to see the Q2 US Housing Stock number. If we see another quarter of contraction, could we be seeing housing capacity destruction by attrition?
If so, that’s wild.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Karen – Gotcha – I’ve heard though, that the issue with internet slowness often has to do with AT&T’s 3G network than with the phones themselves. AT&T is going to transition ultra high speed service into the analog TV spectrum that just opened up. Think that’ll take a couple years though. Should bring truly workable speed to our mobile devices.
I’m a Mac guy all the way but sadly I have no use for the i-phone. I’m a heavy user of my BB for email and my hands are too large to use the iPhone touch pad – even with the new landscape feature.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
karen @ 4:30
Who could possibly want to make a joke about you holding a vibrating object in your hand?
I can’t imagine.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Tranzor – does that 400-500K number include multi-family or just single family homes? In many of the cities out west people are moving back into the city centers. I lived in SF during the time they transformed their financial district from all business to a business / high density mix. Same is happening here in LA now. Many of the boomers are selling the homes they raised their children in and moving into higher density condo and loft units in the city center.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the trend continues, especially when you factor in the aging population, traffic, gas prices, etc.
June 17th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Karen 4.30-
Maybe you were calling yourself to much!
June 17th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
I do have my complaints with the iphone and the keyboard is number one, even with my little fingers. Although, it is easy to wipe off. I am counting on the landscape feature to make amends. The server is overloaded so I haven’t been able to complete my download..
Copy that, DL. Which makes me wonder if hand held radios/ walkie talkies are obsolete?
June 17th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Greg, thanks, I’m leaving the thread now. : )
June 17th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Karen – from one of my iPhone buddies -
It takes about 30-40 minutes to download/upload/confirm…blah blah blah. A few cool new things about it – but I do notice it runs slower.
Let me know what you think when you get yours
June 17th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
@Thor: It includes multi-family with 5+ units. Here’s the HUD compilation (using Census data):
http://www.huduser.org/periodicals/ushmc/spring09/hist_data.pdf
With rates trending up like Curmudgeon mentioned, it’ll be really interesting to see what happens with home prices over the next 12-24 months.
@Karen: I’m disappointed that you got rid of your iPhone that was having trouble peforming for you. You could have suggested therapy or products to bring back that lovin’ feeling. Harsh.
June 17th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Thor,
To answer your question above, I think we had three down days in a row in April, I’ll go back and look tonight. There was a lot of sideways movement in April that gave us the correction then we needed then in a different way than just going down, it did in time what it didn’t in price.
June 17th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
For me it’s been F411’s wiseass snarkiness and lack of depth, combined with overly politicized rhetoric. He’s an unclear thinker. And, unsupported by the data as it is, he has been defining downward continuously his “green shoots” thesis, just like you’d expect a simpering academic to do when confronted with a losing agrument.
June 17th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
karen,
hand-held Radios, a la GMRS/FRS, are Not obsolete.
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=GMRS++FRS+radio
they’re superior to Software-Programmable Radios, aka “Cell Phones”, in many instances..
June 17th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
but hoffer- do they vibrate- it appears- that is a must for Karen
June 17th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
@Thor (4:04)
I’m back after teaching my two classes…
“Does anyone know the last time we had three down days in a row?”
Answer: “YES”…we had three consecutive DOWN days on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of the last opex week (in May)…pretty much what I’ve been screaming at the top of my lungs since last Friday…
Note: I’m not being snarky there, just feeling a little underappreciated
…
JACK!…jk…I have thick skin!
June 17th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
ZH exposes more idiocy (and borderline fraudulent) activities by GS Analysts and their REIT ratings. Will there come a day when we all just finally admit that 90% of what Wall Street does is one big scam designed to make them money at everyone else’s expense?
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/reit-cbls-brief-and-painful-stay-on.html#disqus_thread
June 17th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Sorry I’m so late to the game. Was the wife’s day off.
Firs, a mostly on-topic reference: The chart Barry posted looks a lot like that for China with the exception of a little blip at the end.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/soc-gen-expect-new-equity-lows-in-h2.html
The article is devoted to deflating the China-will-save-the-world-theory that is current. Had CNBC on for a few minutes this morning and some of them were rejoicing about news that Walmart and some other companies were going to be listed on Chinese exchanges and how much higher the multiples were over there. Nothing like high multiples to inspire confidence. Sorry to keep harping on China, but I agree with the zero hedge post that the China story is part of the con game being played right now.
Ben22: thanks for the link to the Eclecitca doc. Hendry is my hero since he did that “monkey’s pick bottoms” rant.
Thanks to Lefty for bringing up the idea of buying long treasuries. Got some for me and the wife in our Fidelity IRA’s. Didn’t have much cash there, though. But they did show the spreads. In Schwab, where I have a lot of cash, they don’t even show the spreads, only ask prices. While the ask prices were consistent with Fidelity’s, I wonder what their spread is when it’s time to sell. When I emailed Schwab, they were very ambiguous about that and recommended calling to get quotes so their specialist could get me the best price. WTF? It’s all computerized.
Anyone have any experience with selling treasuries at Schwab?
Sweet dreams to Lefty thinking about Karen thinking about the leftback bottom. Think of her thinking about it in a bikini.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Left a long post earlier, but it appears it was eaten by wordpress. Just wanted to point out the Zero Hedge post that has a graph similar to Barry’s of China’s profits.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/soc-gen-expect-new-equity-lows-in-h2.html
The post is a deflation of the China will save the world theory currently in vogue. Sorry to sound like a broken record, but I agree wholeheartedly with him that China is playing a confidence game like the US is and that it may endure a greater collapse than we are. There are too many stats contradicting all the rosy pictures painted of the “Chinese recovery.” Just this morning, CNBC was crowing about the fact that Walmart and some other companies were going to list on some Chinese exchanges and how much higher the multiples are there, which alone should tell you something.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
Another short post (for me). Thanks to left for pointing out the buy in Treasuries. After thinking about it and spreadsheeting it, I bought some in our Fidelity IRA’s where we don’t have a lot of cash. Fidelity shows the bid/ask spreads, which aren’t too bad, so I figure I won’t get screwed too badly when it’s time to sell. However at Schwab, where I have a lot of cash, they only show ask prices. Inquiries about seeing the bid prices received a vague answer about calling their specialist who would get me the best price available. Since it’s all computerized, what kind of crap is that? It’s $1k treasures, not rate coins.
Anyone have an experience with Schwab’s spreads?
June 17th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
following on M in Nola- Headline-
‘Bubble of Belief’ in China Economy Seen Bursting
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aN5ok_FbkeQw
it’s all a charade- place your bets accordingly
June 17th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
Inflation, it’s our savior! LOL
June 17th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Inflation, it’s our savior! LOL
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-inflation-will-save-us-inflation-will-save-us-1933-propaganda-film-2009-6
Oops. Inadvertently hit submit without the link before.
June 17th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
I guess I must write like a spammer. Suppose my thoughts and spellings must be really weird. Another post has been devoured.
Anyway, thanks to lefty, bought some long treasuries in our Fidelity IRA’s where we don’t have much cash. Research and spreadsheet makes it look good. Would like to buy some in my schwab acocunt where I have a good bit of cash, but they only show ask and not bid numbers on bonds. Fidelity shows both bid/ask and don’t look too bad. Anyone have any experience of trying to sell treasuries through Schwab?
June 17th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Manny: entertaining article on GS and the REITs.
June 17th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Interesting point on the real meaning of the FEDEX miss today
http://pragcap.com/the-only-news-you-need-to-know-today