Comments on: MBA/Higher interest rates=lower mortage originations http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:46:19 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: MBA/Higher interest rates=lower mortage originations |…. Mortgage Bankers Association’s More Realistic Forecast……. | Total Info http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/comment-page-1/#comment-185797 MBA/Higher interest rates=lower mortage originations |…. Mortgage Bankers Association’s More Realistic Forecast……. | Total Info Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:50:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/#comment-185797 [...] After the note I just sent on the Fed, the MBA said that after raising its forecast for mortgage originations by over $800b in March after the Fed’s QE plan and the subsequent decline in interest rates, they are cutting its ‘09 est by $700b. 88% of the cut is due to refi’s as the Fed “has not been successful in maintaining lower treasury yields.” In March when they raised their estimate they had this caveat, “with the billions in Treasury securities that would be issued to finance record budget deficits and with the Fed expected to purchase only a portion of those, how long rates stayed low would depend on whether other investors stayed in the market. IRead more at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/ [...] [...] After the note I just sent on the Fed, the MBA said that after raising its forecast for mortgage originations by over $800b in March after the Fed’s QE plan and the subsequent decline in interest rates, they are cutting its ‘09 est by $700b. 88% of the cut is due to refi’s as the Fed “has not been successful in maintaining lower treasury yields.” In March when they raised their estimate they had this caveat, “with the billions in Treasury securities that would be issued to finance record budget deficits and with the Fed expected to purchase only a portion of those, how long rates stayed low would depend on whether other investors stayed in the market. IRead more at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/ [...]

]]> By: The Curmudgeon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/comment-page-1/#comment-185651 The Curmudgeon Mon, 22 Jun 2009 19:02:07 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/mbahigher-interest-rateslower-mortage-originations/#comment-185651 The other reason nobody is refinancing is that they can't. Either they are underwater, or they've got a liar's loan and nobody is allowing them to lie anymore. Underwriting is more stringent out there now, even if appraisals are still fantasies. This failure of the Fed to re-engineer a real estate bubble is good news. More failures like this and we might eventually get to a place where real green shoots can have room to grow. The other reason nobody is refinancing is that they can’t. Either they are underwater, or they’ve got a liar’s loan and nobody is allowing them to lie anymore.

Underwriting is more stringent out there now, even if appraisals are still fantasies.

This failure of the Fed to re-engineer a real estate bubble is good news. More failures like this and we might eventually get to a place where real green shoots can have room to grow.

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