That’s right, it’s all better now. Nothing to see here. Happy days, just like in ’07. A rally suddenly makes it all better, just as it always does; until reality sets in again. But thanks for the lecture, as incoherent as it was.

The latest U.S. home-price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency may be a false signal that the housing market is bottoming out.

The agency reported Tuesday morning that its price index in April was down 6.8% from a year earlier, but showed a decline of only 0.3% in the first four months of 2009. “We may be starting to see signs of stabilization in prices for houses” funded by mortgages guaranteed by government-backed investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the FHFA said.

Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm, is less sanguine. She says in a new report that the low end of the market “appears to be approaching stabilization given improved affordability for first-time home buyers and the willingness of investors to absorb distressed home sales.” But she expects prices of higher-end homes to fall swiftly in the months ahead as sellers become more desperate.

An example of “pro-fraud”. How is such a variance allowed in any specific number? “New home sales”. Why is this number apparently, so difficult to derive?

Job losses have almost reached its peak .Foreclosure rates rise with unemployment levels as many homeowners are affected as they are not able to earn money and pay the home loans. People who want to buy new homes are also refraining from the risk as they are unsure of their employment in the coming months. Home sales

I love that term! Housing units being traded like baseball cards or Beany Babies…. If we just flip the same shit back and forth to each other at ever higher we’ll all be rich! Well, at least until the whole thing collapses… =)

HCF

ytd numbers have only that story to tell, and no other.

there seems to be a “things are terrible and they’ll never get better” editorial policy at BP. statistics are chosen, and skewed, to insist on that sermon. (when unemployment figures moderate, shift to “exhaustion rate”.)

data analysts understand the basic hygiene here. avoid lagged statistics, moving averages, ytd comparisons, difference indexes, ratios of ratios, and all other inflators of noise, measurement error and the dead hand of the moronic past.

don’t look backwards with regret or chagrin– unless a return to free money, free wheeling and free recklessness is your terminal pleasure.

most posters here have been proclaiming for months the ultimate crash, the “rising wedge”, the retribution for sin, the scourge of inflation, the reign of gold. i’ve been pointing out for months that the market is going up and may go upper. those who listened to me have made a nice profit. the others have very tight shorts.

Ritholtz, I think you should go on Kudlow again just for old time’s sake and to stir the summer pot.

By the way, is Don Luskin still alive?

Not only that (re: overbuilt supply) but there was a significant number of housing units (single family, condo, etc) built that was almost purely flipping inventory, built on spec and scarfed up by flippers by the dozen. I’m sure it was relatively small compared to overall numbers, but when the music stopped that supply of empty housing really exacerbated the problem, especially in the condo market.