Comments on: Open Thread

By: whodrivesthemarket

whodrivesthemarket — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:50:19 +0000

To exploit on herding created by technical traders (especially trend followers) in the markets, it would be great to know estimations of the fractions of technical vs. fundamental trading in the markets. Based on this, one would apply technical trend following methods only, when herding creates a self-fullfilling prophecy of the trend following approach – as indicated by an strongly increasing amount of technical trend followers in the markets. I’ve published some recent research results that were presented at the Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance 2008 on this issue.

The site estimates and publishes daily fractions of technical traders vs. fundamentalists in various capital markets. This fits very nicely in the bigpicture of the markets. I’m eagerly looking forward to your comments on some further application scenarios..

By: karen

karen — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 04:21:19 +0000

Tranzor, I do have hang ups about flying which is why that reconstruction was of particular interest and fascination. Thank you very much for posting the link…

By: Transor Z

Transor Z — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 20:27:56 +0000

Remembering that this is still an “Open Thread.” Don’t read this if you have hang-ups about flying. It’s a really interesting armchair reconstruction of what might have happened to AF447 over the Atlantic.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/03/air-france-flight-447-a-detailed-meteorological-analysis/

And for those of you with physics degrees, remember that there’s still time to use your skillz for good instead of evil.

By: CapitalistCanuck

CapitalistCanuck — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 20:13:47 +0000

I buy the reflation argument but not in the short term. I think we deal with the inflation scenario 3-5 years out when the market does start to improve and the money runs back into speculative things err commodities – but then again, we are seeing it now! I just happen to believe we are too early to the party and there is lots of unwinding left to do.

By: karen

karen — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:56:48 +0000

Well, as you know I’m firmly in the reflation camp.. that’s not to say i won’t play it either way, because the markets don’t run in a straight line. today looked very inflationary to me… south american style.. with the exceptions being RE, CRE, and Wages.. tomorrow and monday will provide a two more pieces to the puzzle.

By: CapitalistCanuck

CapitalistCanuck — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:50:57 +0000

I’m still in the deflation camp, long dollar short everything. It’s been said many times that you cannot print yourself to prosperity. Hyper-inflation eventually lends itself to collapse.

By: CapitalistCanuck

CapitalistCanuck — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:48:02 +0000

Karen,

I think the move may happens as the 10yr hits the magical 4%. Last week when the 10yr jumped up around 3.7% the market sold off – this week it hardly shrugged. Given the size of the rally, drop in the dollar, plus all the Treasury issuance, it’s possible that rates just need to go higher and the market anticipates this which supports the reflation thesis. I’m thinking the dollar could actually go lower if the “market’ improves / remains stable as investors diversify. BRIC thinks they have the US by the balls – we’ll see who holds the cards in the next crises.

By: CapitalistCanuck

CapitalistCanuck — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:39:07 +0000

It’s quiet ’round here today….

By: karen

karen — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:17:26 +0000

guys, i think crude is just in squeeze mode… look at $gaso chart … will check this evening to see if it continued down… this was one overdone run… jmo, of course.

next week could bring a sea change for the dollar.. attempting to look ahead and not get blindsided…

By: Onlooker from Troy

Onlooker from Troy — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 18:36:54 +0000

Friggen REITs just keep levitating. Short squeeze still? Surely these things didn’t get beaten down so far that they’re a buy right here with the devastation to CRE still to come.