Own versus Rent
By Barry Ritholtz - June 26th, 2009, 3:00PM
Macro Notes
Consolidated NYSE volume on track for another sub 5b share dayPeter Boockvar
To quantify the fall off in volume seen over the past week of trading, assuming current trends persist to day's end, today will be the 4th day in a row of total consolidated NYSE volume below 5b shares for the first time since mid July. I'm not going to give a technical prediction based on this but the drop off in volume is likely due to Q3 earnings season being basically over, the economic calendar quiet this week, a greater focus on risk control (sometimes by doing less) as we are close to finishing up a good year in stock...
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June 26th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
a ) I’m proud to say that I’m a renter. I sold my condo in spring of 07.
b) I live in Raleigh on the values haven’t really fallen much, in fact that went up a BUNCH in late 07…like 20k
June 26th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
The best is when you say you read some blogs on the internet that warned about the coming crisis.
June 26th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
LOL, and so true to life…
Patient renters/investors who didn’t lose any money in their house or 401K need to hide in their cubes for a while longer. The hostility that should have been directed towards the banksters is often misplaced in our direction.
Guy in the yellow shirt has the right idea, but has to wait until things get a bit more desperate out there. Already insanely curious to see how B&Hers will react to Crash II, the Hunt for Red October Redux, Oops We Did It Again.
June 26th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Asok is too young to understand the power of desperation when it comes to negotiation. Unless he was just fucking with the poor homeowner, he just moved too soon. If he were serious, he should have said something frightening but subtle … something that would sadistically eat away at his victim. Later, he should sic the pointy haired boss on him for one thing or another, just to enhance the anxiety level. Then, in a general way, he should let it be known he is looking for a house. Someone should pass this information along to the victim homeowner. The employee should be coming to Asok , who probably makes sure the place is painted and fixed up before he closes. He should probably take some of their furniture, too.
June 26th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
ot
in NYT today
Mr. Bookstaber wrote one of the best books about the causes of the financial crisis, “A Demon of Our Own Design,” and did so before the crisis erupted. This month, his testimony to a Senate subcommittee provided a stark lesson in the uses to which derivatives have been put.
“Derivatives,” he testified, “provide a means for obtaining a leveraged position without explicit financing or capital outlay and for taking risk off-balance sheet, where it is not as readily observed and monitored.” They let institutions dodge taxes and accounting rules.
“Viewed in an uncharitable light,” he added, “derivatives and swaps can be thought of as vehicles for gambling; they are, after all, side bets on the market.”
And they were side bets that could destabilize the markets. Had American International Group been gambling in regulated markets, it would have been required to put up collateral when prices began to go against it. Instead, it was able to ignore the problem until its own collapse — and perhaps that of the financial system — was imminent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/business/26norris.html
June 26th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
down side to being renter, if your landlord looses the house, you do to and you get no warning.
upside all you have to do is move.
and it can happen in apartments to. and probably will
June 26th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
“The best is when you say you read some blogs on the internet that warned about the coming crisis.”
Had dinner this week with the same group of B&H people I dined with last summer. They didn’t believe me then, but more interestingly, don’t believe me now, having moved on with a “market always comes back” psychology.
June 26th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Speaking of “own”, before I leave you beautiful (but lonely, mostly male) peeps for a summer weekend, I just wanted to remind everyone:
All your base are belong to CNBC…and PIMCO.
June 26th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I think it’s likely that in future instances of this Dilbert strip theme, we will see …
Asok being tossed into the street because even though he never missed a rental payment, his landlord was 6 months behind in paying the mortgage on the property …
… and when he goes to rent another place, he finds that Dogbert the CEO has bought up all of the vacant housing (using TARP funds) and is charging an arm+leg to rent them …
June 26th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Yawn…
This market is so fucking boring!
OK great…so we did our little 50% fibo retrace back to 956…
Now…next week…let’s go the other way and hold 905 (right on 6/30) so as to be two SQUATTING points positive for the first half…
Then….wowee…rally up to 930 on 7/6-7/7 to do the full .618 fibro retrace….( the MM’s will convince the ’sheeple’ to call that number over the weekend bbq’s)…
Then we finally start the collapse…
I wish this were like that movie “Click”, and we could just fast forward to July 8th onto Red October…
I had more fun putting a fence in today!
June 26th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Almost nobody who owned their houses for a long time sold and started renting at the top of the bubble. For one thing the transaction costs are substantial about 10% to sell and buy later because of realtor comissions, closing costs, transfer taxes, etc. Second you are taking on a great deal of interest rate risk if you already had a good rate. Third, if you take good care of your property you are unlikely to find another in as good of condition and will have the hidden costs/inconveniences of making repairs. You have to pay movers who will surely damage your stuff and if you have kids it may be difficult to uproot them or find a place in the same school boundaries.
A few like Dean Baker prominently sold but he was 2 years early and missed the peak. I believe he is still renting and the DC area is heating up with inventory plummeting. If he bought back today he would be unlikely to have a significant gain.
If you were able to sell at the peak, rent, and have already purchased a place when rates were below 5%… do tell. I believe most will have either sold too early or will buy too late. It takes dumb luck to accurately peg the exact top of a bubble as by definition the prices are irrational.
June 26th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
“Asok being tossed into the street because even though he never missed a rental payment, his landlord was 6 months behind in paying the mortgage on the property …”
Could easily happen in Manhattan – a tent city in Central Park?
Added to gold and oil shorts today in a patient trade. The $ bounced off support and the € chart looks terrible.
@cvienne: very plausible – we had EoQ window dressing and then we will have the Q3 flow of funds. Yet again the post-BBQ rally sounds likely – just before those Q2 earnings come in – JUST A BIT BELOW EXPECTATIONS.
June 26th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
@cvienne: I think you got it right. That would complete my expected S-H-S pattern (930).
Market was boring except that my cloud computing stock RAX had a great day.
June 26th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
@R. Timm: Bubble dynamics usually dictate an undershoot of the variable after the bubble peaks (e.g. oil in 2008-2009). If this bubble plays out as expected, then housing prices will sink deeper than you can imagine, and banks and homeowners are going to be deeply underwater. If you don’t believe me, go visit California, where some markets are 70% below the peak – and still sinking, or look at the best CA blog, dr.housing bubble for more details. Mish covers this regularly.
Or you could ask Tokyo homeowners about the 15-year period of price declines. Tsunami is coming to NY, DC, and every other bubble market. Just a matter of time.
June 26th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
@leftback/stillaway @manhattanguy
On a POSITIVE note…
I got a new fence up & I got my pool spotless…(and I got a nice sunburn doing both)…
Just about to to toss some steaks on the grill (well, not yet, they’re still in the marinade), snip some arugula, uncork a bottle of wine…and get ready for some Friday Night Jazz…
…a tip of the hat to all you “Golden Staters” out there…WE get to chillin’ a few hours b4 you!
June 26th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Timm,
Most people are atrocious investors, and when they try to get cute, things can really blow up. Especially housing, since it is a tenuous investment to begin with.
June 26th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Aint no Golden State here brah…
Some interesting links for a boring Friday pm…
From TD over at Zero, on CMBS:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/there-goes-cmbs-neighborhood.html
And this little tasty nugget… just primed for a late Friday afternoon release…:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasury-sets-purchase-apf-2866627433.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Enjoy…
-I-Man
June 26th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
ah, cvienne, this golden stater could easily drink a beer at the beach or pool right now, especially on a friday… not too early for a margarita, either : )
just noticed a note on barrons.com about the russell rebalancing today:
June 26, 2009, 3:02 pm
Russell Rebalancing To Prompt Big Liquidity Rise
Posted by Tiernan Ray
Today will be the liquidity event of the year!
So sayeth Credit Suisse in a pre-market note to clients.
“As we’ve mentioned here throughout the week and in previous notes, today is the annual Russell reconstitution. All changes take place on the close. Total gross trading is estimated to be about $28 billion,“ the firm told clients in US Trading Daily advisory.
Financials are net to buy in Russell 1000 and 2000. Over 900 names are estimated to have more than 1 day’s volume to trade.
– Steven Sears, Barrons.com Options Guru
June 26th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
@lefty
“Or you could ask Tokyo homeowners about the 15-year period of price declines. Tsunami is coming to NY, DC, and every other bubble market. Just a matter of time”
I’m with you there mate…
My mom’s house in suburban Washington was up to $650 during the peak and but recently came down to $450…
I basically told her to go do a REVERSIE on it (since it would get in more or less ON PAR with the $420 max they were offering on those)…The thing was free & clear so I told her to take the CASH & go have fun…In 15 years, I suspect the thing will be worth $360 – $380 “fair value”, yet there won’t be anyone qualified to buy it…
I didn’t want it in the end because property taxes are going “UP, UP, UP, UP…To live in this town you got to be tough, tough, tough, TOUGH…”
This towns full of money grabbers…go ahead – bite the big apple!
June 26th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
“So sayeth Credit Suisse in a pre-market note to clients.”
CS will not be advising clients much longer beyond 2010. The bank has some interesting trades on at the moment. Suffice to say that if and when the CRE market finally dies and meets its maker, there will be one more zombie bank added to the roster. They are fcuked and the CHF is not going to be a safe haven currency at this rate.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/is-credit-suisse-going-for-broke-with.html
June 26th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Asok better get up to speed on minding his P’s & Q’s..
http://uruknet.com/?p=m55502&hd=&size=1&l=e
http://uruknet.com/?p=m55482&hd=&size=1&l=e
some easy Fin de Semana reading for placid contemplation..
June 26th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
@MEH: Thanks for the links.
Big Brother continues to expand, as we shrink.
Now, I have to amend my previous statement.
“Sneeze, and a Big Brother blimp will see it and two helicopter gunships and thirteen squad cars will appear. “
June 26th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
MEH-
as always- interesting links-
you probably have people watching you as we speak
June 26th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
@cvienne — “I basically told her to go do a REVERSIE on it”
Bad idea unless she has excellent, full coverage, health insurance. It’s an open line of credit, available for ALL purposes. Besides, a reverse mortgage is the same as refinancing. Did we determine that was a good thing??
June 26th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
This is why I don’t think that Treasuries or the US$ are going to be toast just yet:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/us-savings-rate-hits-69-highest-in-15.html
We seem to be following Japan in yet another way. The dramatic increase in the savings rate is a profoundly deflationary force, and it may well be that domestic investors will replace China and Japan as buyers of US debt. Once again, if we see a resurgence of the fear trade, Treasury yields may amaze us, just as they did last December.
June 26th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
ahab,
re: watchers, seriously, it’s their Problem, hardly mine..
alfred e,
to your point, see: http://www.independent.org/store/book_detail.asp?bookID=15
Robert Higgs does a fine job delineating your observation on “Government Power”..
June 26th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
MEH…second Ahab’s comment on the links–you do your research well.
They sorta remind this amateur historian of the Alien and Sedition Acts. It seems Republican or Democrat, they’re all Federalists now:
http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761559286/Alien_and_Sedition_Acts.html
My, how we could use a little more Jefferson and a little less Adams these days.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
“willid3 Says:
June 26th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
down side to being renter, if your landlord looses the house, you do to and you get no warning.
upside all you have to do is move. and it can happen in apartments to. and probably will”
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=124164490213804200
Btw When the auction’s have run out of pools (and not held by banks) of houses to sell, next
up market is on-line. So far…based upon my 30 years in the housing biz…even the discounted stuff is not worth the effort, because of the ‘location’.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Jefferson was a fan of the Revolution – France enjoyed the most obscene wealth gap in history – until now.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Lonnnnnggggg day at the salt mine. I agree with the Sinister Man (Leftback) that our rapidly increasing savings rate is a deflationary event. (Oculo Sinisteri= Left Eye and wedding rings are worn on the left hand to prevent the devil interfering with the marriage) Lefty: How was your trip?
June 26th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Hey Bruce. My trip was a business meeting but I enjoyed the sunshine and being out of the NYC rain cloud.
For those who like to look at charts, here is the high yield ETF, JNK. This puppy looks like it has rolled over:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=jnk
June 26th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
@Pat G.
I understand your generic disposition to the matter but you don’t know the particulars…
- She has MORE than adequate healthcare & coverage (both from national benefits & through Johns Hopkins, where my late father worked).
- She’s doing a CASH OUT, not a LOC…The cash she can use, but doesn’t need as she has ample other liquidity.
- The ‘actuarial’ on her lifespan is not likely to cause negative ramifications.
- She plans to deploy the cash in various ways…Right now it’s mostly in CD’s…She’s waiting for an opportunity to go ’short’ equities with a portion…Plus, longer dated treasuries as the next wave of the crisis unfolds…She may go LONG inflation hedges later (but not until the DEFLATION wave plays out)…
- If everything goes completely awry, she’s welcome to come live with me (in fact, we spend a lot of time together)…
…as for the property
- I’m the heir and I’m not interested in owning real estate in the area…Property taxes are too high, and I’m thinking that even 15 years into the future, there are going to be problems moving real estate at inflated prices…
…So what’s the worry?…(but I appreciate the advice)
June 26th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Karen – you and me both! Beautiful day in Socal – 74 and sunny. Course that’s 90% of the days here isn’t it?
June 26th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
@cvienne
Sounds likes she’s a good candidate. I just want to make sure that the casual reader here doesn’t get the idea that a reversie (as you call it) is a good idea for everyone. Because it’s not.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
lb,
Nice eye on JNK, the ‘back to Normal’-Trade is waay Fork-ready..
~~
Curmudgeon,
You already know, I wouldn’t doubt, that the best place to Begin, is away from the MSM Circus acts.
And, as you know, the current (D)+(R) claque are, certainly not Democratic-Republicans.
http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Democratic+Republicans
http://www.wepin.com/articles/afp/ link to Anti-Federalist Papers..
June 26th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
@Pat G.
Actually, my friend…
You made a FORMIDABLE effort to point that out…And I underline that by referring anyone to your 6:20 comment…You said…
“I just want to make sure that the casual reader here doesn’t get the idea that a reversie (as you call it) is a good idea for everyone. Because it’s not.”
You’re ABSOLUTELY RIGHT about that…
My own story happened to be a particular situation…Good checkdown on your part!
June 26th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
cvienne,
if she’s doing a Cash-out Refi, than, literally, she isn’t doing a Reverse Mortgage, is she?
Reverse Mortgages, as they are, currently, over-utilized, are their own ‘Tale of Woe’, in the making..
June 26th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
R Timm, you make a great point. Throughout the bubble runnup, one of my properties was a constant target of “real”tors attempting to squeeze their 3-6% juice out of a transaction that does me no good in the long run. In the long run your transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, taxes, fees, and intangibles can ruin any wise investment, plus the inevitable property tax valuation reset in event of a sale. All told, it’s not just greed that keeps peeps long their home and avoiding renting but very real costs.
Additionally, assuming you’re fiscally conservative (which makes you a minority) and we’re not in a state of chaos (i.e., 2+ years ago) and decide to “trade up”, you’re still paying for ~6% realtor fees on the sell transaction and are whacked with the same old thievery on the buy transaction, again, very real costs. The industry was made for friction and lack of transparency to protect franchises and thus profits.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
@ cvienne
I just happen to have worked in social services for years and know the kind of hardship that an open line of credit like a reverse mortgage can cause people if their situation is not just right. Especially those that are elderly. Peace.
June 26th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
@MEH
I agree that probably 95% of the cases are going to turn out to be a ‘Tale of Woe’ as you say…
In fact, I wish I hadn’t brought it up because as Pat G pointed out, some casual passerby’s to this site might interpret that I FAVOR the things…
This case happened to be an odd exception to the rule…
June 26th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
@Pat G
And your concern is noted, 100% CORRECT and appreciated…so my message to MEH goes 2u2
June 26th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
and we lost 2 more Georgia banks…they must have a lot of banks bankrolling Florida loans in Georgia
June 26th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
@willid3
I wonder how many will be shuttered after the “Bank Holiday” that bushong referred 2 yesterday
June 26th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
cvienne,
I hear ya.
~~
General Primer: http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Reverse+Mortgage
Industry pimpsheet: http://reversemortgagedaily.com/
June 26th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
@cvienne
Got any suggestions on how j6p plays a “Bank Holiday”? Do they need to make sure to have enough cash readily available? And if so, for how long? Thanks…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
cvienne-
a link to the rumor- who knows if its true- timing seems a bit odd
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/06/bank-holiday-on-deck.html
interesting though- why would they be telling the US embassies to go local currency?
June 26th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
@MEH
I TOTALLY know what you’re saying…
Actually – why not make this clear on this blog that THIS IS NOT A GOOD IDEA FOR MOST PEOPLE…
– They’re going to get raped by the fees.
- They won’t know what to do with the cash (which will either be worthless in a few years – OR – they’ll blow it – OR they’ll invest it poorly & unfavorably with regards to how the bank is holding their LOC in terms of rates).
- They might actually OUTLIVE the duration (whereby they’ll get kicked out on the streets)
- Their ‘heirs’ will inherit less
I just STARTED with that – ADD ON as you will…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
pat g-
you don’t need cash- just a gun- it will get you all the cash you could want
June 26th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
ahab-
didn’t they sell all the guns and amo during the meltdown?
June 26th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
sorry Wes- I don’t own guns- I am a bit violent- so having one around would not be wise
June 26th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
@Pat G
re: “Got any suggestions on how j6p plays a “Bank Holiday”?
I’m just going on RUMOR here…But rumors such as this tend to “prick my ears up” as to operations (personal operations of my stash & holdings)…
I’m all ears on this (so AHAB & u other threaders, chime in)…First I’d heard about it was yesterday…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
@ahab–” it will get you all the cash you could want”
How??
June 26th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
but I would happily be the one who pulls the lever that drops the trap door- to allow the bankers to “stretch from a rope” as oft quoted by hoffer
June 26th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
@ahab
First thing I did…NO LIE, TODAY…was pull $20k cash out and stick it in the safe…Better SAFE than sorry, I suppose…
I’m kinda low key, so $20k could get me thru 2-3 months easy…karen would run out after a purse or two though
June 26th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
pat g-
should have had my [snark] label on- but the joke is- with a gun – you take from those who have $$$- regardless of your penniless state- you would be able to acquire what you need
June 26th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
cvienne,
the Fees are Atrocious, and it puts on the wrong side of “Inflation Risk” equation..and as + most RevMtg ‘brokers’ are the kind of degenerates that were pushing ’sub-prime’ & ‘Alt-Opt’ Mtgs.
http://www.lifeandhealthinsurancenews.com/News/2007/12/Pages/Hearing-Links-Reverse-Mortgage-Problems-To-Annuities.aspx?utm_source=13826&utm_medium=redirect&cmpid=redirect
June 26th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
@MEH
Absolutely! They’re running out of schmucks to rape…why not prey on the elderly?
June 26th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
cvienne-
LMAO- that’s about it- a purse or two
June 26th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
I have heard on these very threads recently that the elderly are not to be trifled with
June 26th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
@MEH
But here’s the thing…
I had my mom do a FULL CASH OUT reverse back in January…
I told her to twiddle around for a month while the market bottomed out…She put a third of that into equities in March and has rode the rally…It’s all back in CD’s now…In about a week (I suppose), she’ll go 1/3rd short equities, 1/3 long dollar, & 1/3rd long TLT…Hang onto that until Red October…re-assess…
So the ATROCIOUS fees have already been paid…She’s positive on the rest…She’s playing with the HOUSES money a couple of points above their margins for the duration…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
@ahab
Got it!! I’m more in cvienne’s camp as I have the cash. I have the armor to protect it too. Including my trusty M16 from a long time ago.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
@Pat G.
I still don’t own a gun yet…Probably the ONLY West Virginia property owner in that category…
If necessary, I suppose I’ll take steps…I hope I’m not too late on THAT…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
pat g-
no kidding- if it gets bad- I mean tin foil hat bad- best be able to defend yourself, your family and your property- because the police won’t be coming to help-
remember the LA riots- the police just split town- with the Korean grocery store owners- tough people- defending themselves against the onslaught –
the moral of the story is you have to rely on yourself always
June 26th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
LB also has currency available outside of the bank, including currency of another country. Most of mine is in my brokerage account at TD or at Vanguard, however, which seems safe enough.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
@Pat G…
Even better than the CASH…I have the CORN…
Which brings up the eternal question…
In a Mexican standoff what wins? The cash? the corn? or the gun?
I’m guessing THE GUN so I guess I’m fucked
June 26th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
i remember those riots. the ones where the cops couldn’t get organized fast enough to stop them. and then marines or was the army or the national guard showed up. and the gangs we rumored to be ‘getting ready’. but that was all for show. they didn’t have any chance. hard to deal with the military when they are experts at killing and you are just a civilian with a gun. any gun.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Past G, cv, ahab -
if you live in a state where everybody has guns
do you really need one?
everything is already effectively being policed, by uncertainty – does he or doesn’t he – most do – proceed w/ great caution
June 26th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
@cvienne
You can always get a gun. You just may have to pay a little more for it. Supply and demand. My bet is that most Mountaineers probably have more than one. Afterall, I got two hands…..
June 26th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
cvienne,
that’s fine, at least she has good counsel. though, why not do a cash-out refi?
though, to your point about “more schucks to Rape”, RevMtgs are The new game in town.
if 44 was up for any kind of “Change” he’d offer USTreas- backed CDs, direct from the Post Office, to those with a MediCare card..
One Giant looting Orgy..the Vikings would be Impressed..
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/impressed
June 26th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Most people don’t buy with cash, they borrow…I think R Timm has a point with:
“If you were able to sell at the peak, rent, and have already purchased a place when rates were below 5%… do tell. I believe most will have either sold too early or will buy too late. It takes dumb luck to accurately peg the exact top of a bubble as by definition the prices are irrational.”
That’s not say if you have 400,000 cash, you shouldn’t wait, you should…but hey, if you have 400,000 cash to play with you are in the top 0 .3% of the nation and already owned before the bubble.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
@ahab
LA Riots…
I was living in LA at the time (but those were my ‘world travelling’ days, so I happened to be in Denmark when the whole thing went down)…
I remember flying into LAX during the aftermath and the whole sky was just SMOKE on the approach to the runway…Pretty friggin bizarre!
June 26th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
i was in orange county and my dad was in santa monica at the time. needless to say i didn’t go visit for a couple of weeks
June 26th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
@pat g @wes
Maybe I’ll just paint me up the end of a broomstick…or stick a thumb & forefinger into my jacket pocket (vis-a-vis Kevin Costner in “Field of Dreams”)…That ought to scare ‘em away…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
cvienne,
what you may care to consider is to get a concealed carry permit, whether you use it or not, if your Jurisdiction requires it.
those things are going to going Extinct.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
“That’s not say if you have 400,000 cash, you shouldn’t wait, you should…but hey, if you have 400,000 cash to play with you are in the top 0 .3% of the nation and already owned before the bubble.”
Not necessarily. Some of us live in the capital of financial insanity, where few could really afford the prices they paid for houses and apartments. Now almost no-one can, and this is just the beginning of the readjustment.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
sorry guys, but this is too funny…..TZ is way cool.
Transor Z Says:
June 26th, 2009 at 11:40 am
wtg, TZ
Hey Mark, you know you’re my favorite frighteningly informed cryptically posting libertarian mofo, right?
June 26th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
@MEH
“if 44 was up for any kind of “Change” he’d offer USTreas- backed CDs, direct from the Post Office, to those with a MediCare card..”
Don’t laugh…that’s kinda how they roll in Italy…
Do you see? I lived there for a dozen years…(so I’ve already seen the script of what 44 is doing)…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
@MEH
You know, Leroy Kelly (the famous Cleveland Browns running back was #44), so from here on out, 44 gets the name “Leroy”
June 26th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
leftback – really? is that a correct statistic?
June 26th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
@ahab
I hear you. I got caught up in the ‘67 riots in Detroit. Your moral has always been my standard for living.
@cvienne
Bringing cash or corn, like a knife to a gunfight probably isn’t going to work very well for you. I’d suggest a Glock.
@Wes
Absolutely!! Because just about everyone in this carry and conceal state has one.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
@S Brennan
That’s the trouble with this country (or ‘blessing’ as the case may be)…
There are too many MOST PEOPLE…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Cvienne – I’m dying to know who you are. Did you or do you know Tony Horton or Debbie Seibers? Take a look at my employers website and tell me if you know any of those people. http://www.beachbody.com
June 26th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
cvienne,
Leroy Kelly never gets enough play. Jim Brown was great, though, Kelly knew how to tote that ’skin, and Block like a Lineman, like very few others..
June 26th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
@cvienne 7:44pm
I totally agree! Money talks and BS walks. I have saved thousands of dollars because I had cash. It puts you in a whole different bargaining position. Plus, those three little words in life make me smile: Paid In Full.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Thor -
u bustin’ cv’s chops or what?
June 26th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
@Pat G
“Bringing cash or corn, like a knife to a gunfight probably isn’t going to work very well for you. I’d suggest a Glock.”
Actually, I must confess…The farm I bought in WVA was a distressed property that I got for a song and paid a bunch of old tax liens on…
There was property ON the property…and I found a ‘not so old’ glock in one of the cabinets in the cellar…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
Wes – how do you mean bustin’ his chops? No not at all, we just work in very similar industries so might know some of the same people
June 26th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
glock in the drawer it’s a half past four……
June 26th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
@Thor
Don’t know the tramps (’er, ‘um, professionals)…
I’m pretty old school in this…
It’d kinda like be asking Miles Davis if he knew Kid Bow Wow or something…
June 26th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Thor-
cool, that is actually what i assumed given my understanding of you
sweet…
something in common – with a very interesting person
June 26th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
no offense though, Thor…SERIOUSLY
June 26th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
Heh, fair enough.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
some more EZ-Weekend reading:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/25/online-global-warming-study-censored-by-epa/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/25/source-inside-epa-confirms-claims-of-science-being-ignored-by-top-epa-management/
June 26th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
I didn’t take offense cvienne, not at all. I don’t actually work with any of these people, I’m one of the guys who takes care of the network. They’re just the “talent”. In any case, there’s no derogatory comment you could make about any of them that I probably wouldn’t agree with. They’re LA at it’s worst.
June 26th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
cv -
caps lock “off ” is also a possible position for that key on your computer
so are shift keys, which i try to ignore like some kinda asshat – so one asshat to another….
like we say in cycling – nobody wants to be told how to ride their bike…
June 26th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
@Thor
I’ll keep looking through the site though (I just got past the first page)…
With six degrees of separation & all, something is bound to click…
You have to understand something…I (and about a half dozen others STARTED this business)…I actually owe thanks to Jane (Fonda)…I trained Madonna, Kurt Russell, Goldie, Paula Abdul, Faith Ford, Jane Leeves, and many others back in the day…
I walked away when the zombies started infiltrating and cutting in on my margins for producing crap (just like ANY OTHER business)…
June 26th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
MEH-
you’re preaching to the choir- I think environmentalism would do itself a great favor by preaching the pluses of a clean environment- clean water- clean air- food free from GMO’s -
it’s an easy sell and gets the same result- global warming- I just don’t buy it
June 26th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
Cvienne – Yeah, I hear ya – P90X is actually really good though. I’ve worked out most of my adult life and some of the workouts on there are difficult, even for someone like me. Besides, it’s very lucrative crap, we sell about 3 million a week in P90x alone.
June 26th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
@ahab
remember back in the 70’s?…Environmentalism was the “ecology” movement…their loga was the same fucking one that Microsoft later stole to use for its browser…
When oil tanked back to $10 a barrel, the movement was toast…
…and back then they were talking about the coming ICE AGE
June 26th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
@Thor
I sold 8 million of my own videos (remember those)…rang the register and never looked back…
\\
June 26th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
cvienne-
i do remember- but I’m all about a clean environment- meaning clean air- clean water- GMO free food- food free from artificial additives-
when I was a kid- the highways were littered with trash- everyone threw there trash out the window while they were driving- just the way it was- and the river in Cleveland- can’t remember the name- caught on fire-that’s some seriously dirty river-
so the laws that came into effect to combat this have worked- ans it is an easy sell to Americans- because we all want clean air and clean water and healthy food
June 26th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
@ahab
Make it PROFITABLE and it’ll happen…
Until then, we all have to create our own cubicles…
You know? there’s a company (in Canada, I think) called w2 energy…I think it’s WTWO…
Seems they have machines that turn garbage into energy (even tires), with zero CO2 emissions…I don’t know much about it, but I remember this girl I know who runs a bar telling me about someone who told her about it…
Anyway…if it’s all TRUE? Why isn’t 44 all over that?
June 26th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
from Zerohedge-
the Republican’s appear to be saying exactly what people want ot hear
“The Republican plan will be designed to ensure that (1) the government stops rewarding failure and picking winners and losers; (2) taxpayers are never again asked to pick up the tab for bad bets on Wall Street while some creditors and counterparties of failed firms are made whole; and (3) market discipline is restored so that financial firms will no longer expect the government to rescue them from the consequences of imprudent business decisions. The Republican plan seeks to return our regulatory system to one in which government policies do not promote moral hazard, and insolvent financial firms are permitted to fail rather than become wards of the state.”
I’m impressed- finally- someone saying something that makes sense
June 26th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
@ahab
Their campaign contributions just got shot to shit…
June 26th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
@ ahab & MEH
Interesting theory on the moderation of global warming:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2058273530743771382
BTW there’s additional commentary about the Nigerian / Gazprom deal on Zero Hedge.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/gazprom-and-state-of-nigeria-create-jv.html#disqus_thread
June 26th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
cher cvienne –
when i work out with weights at the gym and then drive home – i am an aggressive driver
when i ride my road racing bicycle for 3 hours and then drive home – i am a mellow driver
please analyze/advise…..
June 26th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
stillaway-
still watching that ridiculously long video- will relay my thoughts- I am skeptical- because you can trump up the global warming argument by saying- yes it is cooler- but that is because of global dimming- so the dimming argument will always help the warming argument in all circumstances-
my point is only- that if we sell the clean air and clean water ideal- we achieve the same results as the demands of the global warming folks-
we’re all happy- and if it stops global warming great- but I am happy that I have a clean environment
June 26th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
@still-back
It took about 35 minutes of the video to get to about the 3rd sentence of the article…
June 26th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
@wes
“when i work out with weights at the gym and then drive home – i am an aggressive driver
when i ride my road racing bicycle for 3 hours and then drive home – i am a mellow driver”
—
It is impossible for me to do a blood analysis of your metabolic system – but I would suggest the following based on logic…
Working out with weights produces a small rise in testosterone levels (which can result in aggresive behavioral patterns)…IMO – it shouldn’t be so great as to make you more aggressive driving a car, but individuals can react in variable ways…
“Cycling” – let me be specific – “3 hours” of cycling CANNOT be done using predominately anaerobic pathways for energy production (which would give out after about 45 minutes)…Therefore, you are using AEROBIC pathways (zone 2 ATP production which utilizes oxygen & fatty acids via the krebs cycle)…It’s essentially a ‘cleaner’ fuel burn which tends to result in a better sense of euphoria for various reasons which include endorphine effect and anti-oxidization vs. free radicals…It can even reduce PAIN & fatigue due to lactic acid/pyruvic acid conversions (basically saying you “feel less pain” so you “feel better”)…
I’m not saying either is BETTER (each has its merits with respect to overall function)…but it explains the way it makes you “feel”…
June 26th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
Ahab-
Agreed on the clean air and water. I too, remember the flaming Cuyahoga River. I think it was the only river in the nation to a have fire department patrol boat.
As far as global warming, I don’t have an informed opinion as I haven’t done any serious reading on the subject.
I remembered seeing the video several months ago and thought it was interesting. (Shit, some other pending environmental disaster to worry about.)
June 26th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Let’s see…where is the spending to get us out of the recession/depression coming from?
Not from the new 6.9% savings rate….
Not from higher energy taxes…assuming this thing goes into law…
Not from the unemployed and the increasing underemployed…
Not from newspapers…
Not from car dealers…
Not from realtors…
Not from new college hires…
Not from families with college students with higher tuitions…
Not from retirees with smaller nest eggs…
Not from truckers…
Not from airlines…
…..Maybe from renters?
June 26th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
@Bruce
“where is the spending to get us out of the recession/depression coming from?”
Come on Bruce…Even FRANKLIN knows the answer to that question…
The spending is going to come from OBAMA
June 26th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Anybody else following this?
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/sec-needs-your-feedback.html
Don’t know what it will amount to, but . . . pass the popcorn and the freedom fries, bitches.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCYr8TWAGn0&feature=related
June 26th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Yes, I wonder if Mr. Obama really thinks this transfer of spending from the consumer as private spending to the government/taxpayer as public spending is going to work. My impression, as you know cvienne, is that this is foolhardy, and I think the democrats could suffer hugely in the 2010 mid-terms. Frankly, I’d like to see the population put in fiscal conservatives of either party, but I know that is too much to hope for.
Goodnight. Very long week.
June 26th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
@Transor: I’ve been following it as well. If there’s anything to it, then this party is definitely just getting started. Pull up a chair, grab a coke and some sour patch kids. This could get interesting.
June 26th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
a little sultry, a little skin, should be OK for FNJ sorry for the late post had to buy a pair of pants that fit
http://www.mtvmusic.com/pierces/videos/400156/turn_on_billie.jhtml
June 26th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
@Manny: You buy I’ll fly. Hold my seat.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Taibbi’s article in Rolling Stone making waves. Goldman’s already put out a statement on it (see Zero Hedge)…..
http://www.scribd.com/doc/16763183/TaibbiGoldmanSachs
June 26th, 2009 at 11:36 pm
Oh, my! just opened up my Rolling Stone mag, “From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulations since the Great Depresion–and they’re about to do it again”
June 26th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
@karen: That was the article above that I just posted. Goldman has already issued a statement on it. It seems they’re worried, otherwise why even bother with making any public statement?
Very well researched and written in a way that even We the Sheeple can understand…..that is if they’re paying any attention, which is no certainty, as we know.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/bernankes-pr-offensive/#comment-162419
June 26th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
Jeff, it was your post that prompted me to open the magazine… I brought the mail in late.. and the cover was the Jonas Brothers (repulsive!)
June 26th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
Wow, great post Transor. How long can this crap continue without a true backlash?
June 26th, 2009 at 11:48 pm
@karen: The Jonas Brothers on Rolling Stone? Yuk. Matt Taibbi and Rolling Stone (a so-called music magazine) having to the fill the void on serious reporting in the financial services industry? We are truly in Bizarro never-never-land.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
CNBC Sucks made one of the best statements yesterday: “It’s early yet.”
We’re all such news junkies here I think we forget we’re only 8 months into the bubble collapse. I know I do.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
Will the article be back-burned on Michael Jackson’s death? Incredible coincidence… a 3 celebrity death week spanning decades of fans..
June 26th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
@Transor: I reminded my wife that this thing is going to play out in what seems like excruciatingly slow motion. We’re so used to things happening so quickly. This one is going to drain us all in some fashion by the time it “ends”.
Pull up a chair, no a recliner. It’s going to take a while to sort through this debacle.
June 26th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
BTW, pg 19 of the Rolling Stone is an article entitled “Michael Jackson’s Troubled Comeback [:] the singer’s upcoming 50 concerts will make him rich again-if he holds up”
June 27th, 2009 at 12:26 am
Regina Spektor on Letterman next . . . she’s my gf. Gotta go. Have a great weekend.
June 27th, 2009 at 12:37 am
Boy, I missed a lot.
On the issue of renters not getting notice, there is now a federal law requiring bona fide tenants to get 90 days notice before they can be kicked out in a foreclosure on any “federally related” mortgage. See Sec. 701 of
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=111_cong_public_laws&docid=f:publ022.111.pdf
There are also similar laws in some cities to protect tenants. Houston has one. It’s passage was prompted by an incident during the past year when the rental agents of an apartment complex tried to skip out in the middle fo the night with all the rents (must have been a lot of cash payers) because the complex was being foreclosed on. The tenants caught them and the agents had to be protected by the police.
karen: Re the celebrity deaths and the GS story.
Just shows the power of GS and how far GS will go to protect itself
Speaking of GS, anyone see this on Zero Hedge? Don’t know if its correct, but contains an interesting graphic showing GS’s interest rate swap exposure. Pretty scary if it’s right.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/q1-bank-trading-only-interest-rate.html
June 27th, 2009 at 12:48 am
Also, did anyone notice Peter Boockvar’s not that today’s volume was the lowest since Jan 2, which he doesn’t mention, but a look at the S&P chart shows it was an intermediate top before the slide down to the LB Bottom™
And, the VIX is the lowest since the Friday before Lehman blew up.
Coincidence?
June 27th, 2009 at 1:20 am
>> First thing I did…NO LIE, TODAY…was pull $20k cash out and stick it in the safe…Better SAFE than sorry, I suppose…
Wow, cvienne. Maybe I *will* drop by one of these days…
“Oh, that’s a lovely painting on the wall. And the frame, too! Mind if I take a closer look??”
Kidding, of course…