According to estimates, the US economy shed 520k non farm jobs in May, the 7th straight month above 500k but the smallest job loss of the 7. The unemployment rate though is expected to rise to 9.2%, the highest since Sept 1983, from 8.9% in April as the US economy needs to generate at least 125k jobs per month before a reversal in the unemployment rate is seen. The U6 unemployment rate, which includes part time workers who want full time and those no longer looking but would take a job if offered, was at 15.8% in April. With initial claims stabilizing at around the 625k level, the ADP May # falling 532k and a slight improvement in the employment component of the ISM services index, there is little reason for today’s # being much worse than expected (although will still be weak) but predicting govt data is never easy. Canada’s jobs report was weaker than expected with the level of unemployed at the highest since Mar ’98.

Category: MacroNotes

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