Comments on: Pending Home Sales Index Rises

By: Roll Call: More of the same | New York Real Estate

Roll Call: More of the same | New York Real Estate — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:19:48 +0000

[...] Home Sales Up for Three Months in a RowBarry Ritholtz begs to differ and he has good reason to. Leave it to the NAR to focus on the wrong portion of their own data: As we have seen since Housing [...]

By: JusTryinTaMakeIt

JusTryinTaMakeIt — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 21:55:09 +0000

I downloaded the March Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted raw data, and did a little analysis. It shows only yellow weeds and no green shoots. Specifically, the drop in prices for the 3 months ended March was the largest since the index began in 1987! In the first quarter prices dropped 5.8%. If that rate continues prices would drop 21.4% in 2009. That’s on top of a 19.2% drop in 2008. December 2009 prices would be at the level they were in July 2001. In the first quarter the rate of decline accelerated in 17 of the 20 municipal areas covered. The only areas that showed a slower decline were San Diego, Los Angeles, and DC (I guess the unemployment situation is less severe in the latter!). Meanwhile, the annual(ized) rate of decline in New York went from 9% in 2008 to 19% in 2009 (Boston was similar), Seattle went from 13% in 2008 to 23% in 2009. Atlanta, Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago showed steep increases in the rates of decline. And meanwhile Las Vegas and Phoenix continued to decline at annual rates over 30%. Nationally we are headed for July 2001 price levels by the end of the year. That means that most people who bought a house in the last 8 years have lost equity (some investment!!!). And Las Vegas is headed toward values last seen eighteen years ago, in 1990!

By: leftback

leftback — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 21:14:44 +0000

CNBC is trying to f*** the shorts, that’s what they are up to.

By: Mike in Nola

Mike in Nola — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:54:15 +0000

On a slightly related note, I see that the CNBC site is trying to pump up REIT’s. I suppose the theory is that now tha money is flowing freely again they can refinance all those malls and shoppers will come back.

By: bart

bart — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:29:38 +0000

The NAHB opportunity index beats the NAR one for usability & reality by well over a country mile.

http://www.nahb.org/page.aspx/category/sectionID=135

By: Jim C

Jim C — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:22:56 +0000

The reasons it is good to see rising existing home sales include
1) It means people are more open to spending money
2) It means more people will soon be upgrading/fixing up their house (two homes sold on my house this month, the sheer number of trucks I’ve seen there replacing carpet, painting, etc, is amazing).

No, it doesn’t mean sound the all clear, we are still in a recession until the job number goes positive for a few months (in my opinion, at least), but it is a hopeful sign, aka green shoot.

By: Mr Objective

Mr Objective — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:30:17 +0000

Another option for fading the currency moves is to put in a couple stink trades for tonight. (with an appropriate stop behind that) This does seem like a juncture where the $ *could* reverse course.

By: leftback

leftback — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:29:54 +0000

Andy: Thanks for the warning.

Here is Mish on dollar sentiment. The chart shows what should be a strong support level just below USD 78:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/speculative-bets-against-dollar-highest.html

By: Groundhogday

Groundhogday — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:29:19 +0000

The pending sale issue has been discussed extensively on the Seattle Bubble Blog. So far, there is no sign of a resulting surge in closed sales. Pendings are up but many of these are short sale offers (rejected by banks), can’t close due to financing problems, and/or are contingent upon the sale of another home.

Again: no sign of a YOY increase in closed sales outside of markets inundated with dirt-cheap foreclosures (LV, LA, Phoenix, FL, etc…)

By: Mike in Nola

Mike in Nola — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:10:45 +0000

I sure hope the dollar drops some more and interest rates keep going up for purely selfish reasons:

1. My wife’s current 403b doesn’t allow buying individual bonds or cd’s, so 18 months ago I parked a good chunk in some triple A Euro bonds which had done well for several years in other accounts. Snce they were 99% governments, I figured they were safe and would rise when central banks started cutting rates. Well, you know what happened to the exchange rate last year. The fund has been rallying a lot and I hope ot be able to bail at close to parity before the next $ squeeze and maybe get a US Intermediate to long fund to play off the falling rates.

2. Can get riskless CD’s that pay a decent rate in our other IRA’s.

3. High rates wll crash stocks and commodities back to reality and make my short bets look good. Screw the cheerleaders and those who are cheerled.