Comments on: Relationship between the 2/10 & SPX http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:43:00 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: jc http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178458 jc Mon, 01 Jun 2009 23:41:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178458 The biggest industrial company in the country fails and we celebrate with a 220 pt rally. Everything is"the bottom". The biggest industrial company in the country fails and we celebrate with a 220 pt rally. Everything is”the bottom”.

]]> By: seneca http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178442 seneca Mon, 01 Jun 2009 22:43:51 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178442 Doesn't everyone know that, by and large, a steep yield curve is BULLISH for stocks and a flat yield curve is BEARISH? Where's the puzzle? The yield curve is steepening and stocks are rallying. That's the way the markets are supposed to work! To see this relationship, you need decades of data, not the 9 years shown in the chart. Doesn’t everyone know that, by and large, a steep yield curve is BULLISH for stocks and a flat yield curve is BEARISH? Where’s the puzzle? The yield curve is steepening and stocks are rallying. That’s the way the markets are supposed to work! To see this relationship, you need decades of data, not the 9 years shown in the chart.

]]> By: Mike C http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178436 Mike C Mon, 01 Jun 2009 22:23:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178436 @I-man <i>just in case you’re implying from my statement that I’m in some kind of “gloom and doomster” club. OR that you’re assuming that I’ve been a bear and short this whole time.</i> I was not, and I apologize if it came across that way. That said, I read enough of the comments on an ongoing basis to know there is definitely a "gloom and doomster" club here. I remember them saying S&P 300-400 was just around the corner when we dropped below 700. Like I said before, bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. You gotta know when to take some chips off the table. We'll get there on this bullish run as well but the S&P is still not ridiculously expensive on any sort of normalized valuation along what Hussman, Grantham, Shiller does. Frankly, the people looking at a trailing multiple on earnings or a forward on 09 have no idea on valuation whatsoever. The value of the S&P doesn't come from 1-year's earnings but all the future earnings over the next couple of decades. Are S&P earnings really going to stay at 08-09 levels for the next 30 years? There are some people thinking they are doing some incredibly incisive valuation analysis to come up with their 400 target which is just as nonsensical as the bulls in 07 looking at a multiple of peak earnings. One of my favorite monthly reads out today: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Shorter version: Don't stand in the way of a freight train. @I-man

just in case you’re implying from my statement that I’m in some kind of “gloom and doomster” club. OR that you’re assuming that I’ve been a bear and short this whole time.

I was not, and I apologize if it came across that way. That said, I read enough of the comments on an ongoing basis to know there is definitely a “gloom and doomster” club here. I remember them saying S&P 300-400 was just around the corner when we dropped below 700. Like I said before, bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. You gotta know when to take some chips off the table.

We’ll get there on this bullish run as well but the S&P is still not ridiculously expensive on any sort of normalized valuation along what Hussman, Grantham, Shiller does. Frankly, the people looking at a trailing multiple on earnings or a forward on 09 have no idea on valuation whatsoever. The value of the S&P doesn’t come from 1-year’s earnings but all the future earnings over the next couple of decades. Are S&P earnings really going to stay at 08-09 levels for the next 30 years? There are some people thinking they are doing some incredibly incisive valuation analysis to come up with their 400 target which is just as nonsensical as the bulls in 07 looking at a multiple of peak earnings.

One of my favorite monthly reads out today:

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Shorter version: Don’t stand in the way of a freight train.

]]> By: I-Man http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178421 I-Man Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:21:42 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178421 @ Mike C: And since those are my words amigo- let me just qualify them by saying that I was not short this thing until April 29th... just in case you're implying from my statement that I'm in some kind of "gloom and doomster" club. OR that you're assuming that I've been a bear and short this whole time. As per: "It is one thing to “be wrong”. It is another to be stubborn and “stay wrong”... I couldnt agree more... but have I been proven wrong... with conviction? Decidedly, No. Not trying to call you out- but if you use I and I words to make a point, you ought to just check the context of the I that spoke them. Bless. -I-Man @ Mike C:

And since those are my words amigo- let me just qualify them by saying that I was not short this thing until April 29th… just in case you’re implying from my statement that I’m in some kind of “gloom and doomster” club. OR that you’re assuming that I’ve been a bear and short this whole time.

As per:

“It is one thing to “be wrong”. It is another to be stubborn and “stay wrong”…

I couldnt agree more… but have I been proven wrong… with conviction? Decidedly, No.

Not trying to call you out- but if you use I and I words to make a point, you ought to just check the context of the I that spoke them.

Bless.
-I-Man

]]> By: I-Man http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178416 I-Man Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:07:23 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178416 What kind of bothers me about that hammer AT is the absence of volume... kind of glaring. You still hanging with that DTO Karen? I've been watching it for a short term long entry... that Ahmadinejad Call still has me gunshy tho. I think the Israelis are getting ready to throw a punch, but thats just speculation of course. Question is... are they going to throw a punch before or after crude corrects 10%? What kind of bothers me about that hammer AT is the absence of volume… kind of glaring.

You still hanging with that DTO Karen? I’ve been watching it for a short term long entry… that Ahmadinejad Call still has me gunshy tho.

I think the Israelis are getting ready to throw a punch, but thats just speculation of course. Question is… are they going to throw a punch before or after crude corrects 10%?

]]> By: Mike C http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178413 Mike C Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:02:37 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178413 <i>We’ll probably be carried out on our shields while you are being paraded as the Victorious Queen of the Reinflation Bubble of 09.</i> Just for the record, I'm in the "bear market rally" camp and don't think this is the beginning of a multi-year bull like 03-07, but I suspect this thing is going to run longer and higher then some of the gloom and doomsters could have ever anticipated, and many who were sitting on nice profits in late Feb/early Mar will indeed be carried out on their shields bemoaning government and Fed "manipulation". It is one thing to "be wrong". It is another to be stubborn and "stay wrong" http://www.minyanville.com/articles/USO-VIX-spx-SPY-bull-bear/index/a/22872/from/home http://www.minyanville.com/articles/bearish-STOCKS-equities-spx-QQQQ-SPY/index/a/22881 http://www.minyanville.com/articles/rally-dollar-Fed-VIX-spx-SP500/index/a/22862 We’ll probably be carried out on our shields while you are being paraded as the Victorious Queen of the Reinflation Bubble of 09.

Just for the record, I’m in the “bear market rally” camp and don’t think this is the beginning of a multi-year bull like 03-07, but I suspect this thing is going to run longer and higher then some of the gloom and doomsters could have ever anticipated, and many who were sitting on nice profits in late Feb/early Mar will indeed be carried out on their shields bemoaning government and Fed “manipulation”. It is one thing to “be wrong”. It is another to be stubborn and “stay wrong”

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/USO-VIX-spx-SPY-bull-bear/index/a/22872/from/home
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/bearish-STOCKS-equities-spx-QQQQ-SPY/index/a/22881
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/rally-dollar-Fed-VIX-spx-SP500/index/a/22862

]]> By: Onlooker from Troy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178412 Onlooker from Troy Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:02:31 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178412 Let's hear it for the hammer! Dollar rally-bring it on! What's more American than that? Let’s hear it for the hammer! Dollar rally-bring it on! What’s more American than that?

]]> By: karen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178410 karen Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:57:27 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178410 Andy, the tail is plenty long here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p83612926006 and this is the ino chart that looks rather stalled to me: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1&w=1&t=c&a=50 it's been a cr*p shoot.. and 66 didn't cap crude.. Andy, the tail is plenty long here:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p83612926006

and this is the ino chart that looks rather stalled to me:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1&w=1&t=c&a=50

it’s been a cr*p shoot.. and 66 didn’t cap crude..

]]> By: karen http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178406 karen Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:50:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178406 Andy, look at UDN as well. the $usd candle I'd call a bullish hammer... and taking the last 3 together.. seems like a stalled pattern... it has been a long run down for the dollar... the uup candle could turn into a morning star if we get an up day tomorrow. it's gotta be a tired trade... like crude which further flayed me alive today, lol. Congrats to DL on his OIH : ) Andy, look at UDN as well. the $usd candle I’d call a bullish hammer… and taking the last 3 together.. seems like a stalled pattern… it has been a long run down for the dollar… the uup candle could turn into a morning star if we get an up day tomorrow. it’s gotta be a tired trade… like crude which further flayed me alive today, lol.

Congrats to DL on his OIH : )

]]> By: leftback http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/relationship-between-the-210-spx/comment-page-2/#comment-178404 leftback Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:41:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=27928#comment-178404 AT: Hope you're right about the hammer bottom, because LB's bottom was certainly hammered today. G'night, all. AT: Hope you’re right about the hammer bottom, because LB’s bottom was certainly hammered today.
G’night, all.

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