Unemployment Friday
By Barry Ritholtz - June 12th, 2009, 1:30PM
I continue to hear pundits overstate that “Employment is a lagging indicator.”
Yes, in the aggregate, that is true. But if you drill down into all of the employment data, you can find elements that lead (temp Help, Hours worked) or are Coincidental (Continuing Claims, Wages).
Here are some recent Employment Charts that show the state of the employment market, with an emphasis on the leading aspects.
Verdict: Not very good.
>
Temporary Help:
A major leading indicator of future hiring.
>
Employment, Hours (CES)
>
Its even more dramatic when you just look at only private employers:
>
Lastly, there are the continuing claims, which shows no signs of abating:
Continuing Unemployment Claims
via Calculated Risk
>
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
June 12th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
all these charts look brutal
June 12th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
some how i am not surprised.
but since the labor dept includes non-income things like benefits as wages, thus inflating them, and making them look better than they are.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
David Rosenberg had a chilling take on declining work week hours last Friday:
[I]f companies had held hours worked constant in May instead of cutting them, to achieve the total labour input they achieved last month would have required — get this — a 927,000 payroll cut. ‘Green shoot’ indeed.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
BR lamented:
I continue to hear pundits overstate that “Employment is a lagging indicator.”
comment:
——————-
Doesn’t is just burn your ass that a lot of lazy, ignorant, dittoheads with good personalities don’t need to know much about anything to be successful in the field of high finance or financial reporting. They just appear to need to know the words of the trade.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
TZ-
I read that as well- can’t rememeber what site I was on- Zero Hedge possibly- it’s a shame that any thorough analysis of the economic data that is spewed out doesn’t get widely reported
June 12th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
While I can’t say that I understand the concept completely, the Indications Of Interest for SPY and IWM, as reported on ZH, imply that there will be a significant pump this afternoon when the ETF turns these into actual stock purchases. Can anyone explain the IOI in more detail?
June 12th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
When green shoots and not green poops, finally are in front of the economy for real, the charts on this one are going to look unlike any other. I heard Larry Summers say, “what this administration wants to accomplish is for the generation 40 years hence not to even be talking about 20008 in their history books,” (paraphrase). I got news for hime, they will be talking about 2008, “09, “10, “11, “12… for centuries.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
The stock market maybe getting better, but the economy still blows.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
I find it indicative of the times and the worst of our problems that the people at the top are wringing concessions out of their employees left and right: fewer hours, pay cuts, furloughs without pay, while they continue their current obscene compensation plans.
And the employees have to take it because the choice is ……
Let’s hear it again for “globalization”.
ANd this goes hand in hand with the shrinking private investment in the US. Companies are only investing capital in foreign countries where there is cheap labor and favorable tax treatment.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
alfred Says-
“Companies are only investing capital in foreign countries where there is cheap labor and favorable tax treatment.”
and that is it in a nutshell- tough issue to tackle because it is in the company’s best interest and the interest of shareholders to maximize margins- how to resolve outide of devaluation of the $-
tough indeed
June 12th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
I continue to hear pundits overstate that “Employment is a lagging indicator.”
Those are the people that “know” the bull market is here. This helps them prove it.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Alfred,
DD is making employees take 10 days without pay this summer. Mandatory. I can tell you the clients I work with there aren’t happy, and they sure as hell aren’t spouting off about green shoots.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Alfred – ANd this goes hand in hand with the shrinking private investment in the US. Companies are only investing capital in foreign countries where there is cheap labor and favorable tax treatment.
I’ve thought about this a lot – how and why was the decision made for us to open all of the factories and poor all this money into China? Why not Mexico? We could have killed a bunch of birds with one stone on that one. Improve the overall economy of our neighbor, create jobs there to help with the illegal immigration there, not have to worry as much about the cost of shipping (via gyrating oil prices), on and on and on. Was labor really that much cheaper in China than it is/was in Mexico?
June 12th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
poor should have been pour – sorry
June 12th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Looks like they started the pumping early today. I wonder if yesterdays selling during the last hour got them a little nervous.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
The spread between continuing claims and initial claims seems to be scarily out-of-proportion to prior cycles. What does that mean in terms of spending and consumer credit (let alone human suffering) if a large percentage are still unemployed when insurance expires?
June 12th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
alfred/ahab, but we were sold (told) that globalization was all about the cheap products.
what they neglected to mention
was that our incomes would collapse because you are now competing with some one in Vietnam. and it teh cost only you are competing on.
nor did they mention that these cheap products would come with ‘extras’, like components of anti-freeze in food and drugs, or lead on toys. among others!
but just think of the cheap stuff you can buy now!!!
June 12th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
rationall – good question. I wonder what’s going to happen when unemployment insurance starts running out for all these people who can’t find jobs.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Barry, I have been watching “hours worked” closely for a few months now, because it reveals additional aspects of slack in the labor market that are not measured by claims – for example, firms closing on the weekends or for weeks at a time, or furloughing workers or switching full-time to part-time – things that we are all seeing happening around us every day.
In addition I like it because either it is too obscure or too difficult for the guvmint information control centre to be able to edit. It is never reported in MSM so it’s a tree that falls in the forest most of the time.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
willid-
I’m with you willid- just don’t know the answer- outside of $ devaluation- which would prompt companies to come back to the USA – lower standard of living regardless – might be some other ideas out there- but that’s all i got
rationall/thor-
unemployemnt can always be extended beyond the 39 weeks currently allowed- but assuming mass unemployment and expiration of unemployment benefits- then-
welfare and food stamps
June 12th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Please Barry–not on a Friday!
June 12th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
AMTD off line… Blankfein and Dimon must be underneath the desk pulling out wires….
June 12th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
saw this on CR. don’t read it unless you are sitting down
http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/2009OutlookFinal_Long.pdf
June 12th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
thor- I realized that part of the answer is probably that benefits are extended for many more weeks now than in prior cycles which would cause a bigger buildup. But I haven’t dug in to try and quantify the difference. Anybody know where I can get that spoon-fed to me?
June 12th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
dead hobo @ 2:22
All you’d need is a little bit of charm, and you too could be an overpaid economist.
(Then again, maybe a lot more charm).
June 12th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Whoa… the negativity on this blog… Digital TV, Cash for Clunkers, Bailouts for BBJs will turn things around.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Wesbury has charm?
Wonder where cvienne and MEH are? I had some options questions going into next week.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
DL Says:
June 12th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
dead hobo @ 2:22
All you’d need is a little bit of charm, and you too could be an overpaid economist.
(Then again, maybe a lot more charm).
reply:
—————-
Whay I may lack in charm I try to make up for in good looks.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
It’s not a lagging indicator if the unemployment numbers are increasing in big numbers, is it? How can it be? We haven’t had this much unemployment in all time, so I think the pundits are a bit too complacent in assuming we’re in the midst of a recovery. Either that, or they’re addicted to stupid pills.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
@Hobo: We can see that from here. Like a movie star.
The only recovery is in stupidity and InvestTools confidence levels.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
VennData Says:
June 12th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Whoa… the negativity on this blog… Digital TV, Cash for Clunkers, Bailouts for BBJs will turn things around.
comment:
——————-
Bailouts for what??? I understand the mechanics but I don’t understand the economics in this context. Your idea would definitely goose employment.
June 12th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
BR, you should do a piece on who is more helpful to the economy in times like these; those who get down and dirty into the facts or those that just spew green poops? I would guess although a bit counter intuitive, that providing the masses with the truth, creates the greater benefit. If you take child rearing as an example, is it the parent who pampers the child the one who produces the best adult equipped to embrace adulthood? Why is it that people would rather blow smoke up the perverbial assess of the masses, then to tell them the truth so that this downturn can get on the right track more quickly? If ever there was a time for a third party to join in our political circus, now it that time!
June 12th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
the spam shit is a show- I wonder why BR hasn’t blocked that IP address- unless they’re using a new one each time- irritating-
*** FYI- “ifellicantgetup” = spam***
June 12th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
There it is. Final few minutes pump going into the weekend. It appears the market will never be allowed to go down again for the foreseeable future. Time to buy with leverage.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Can somebody explain the temp help thing a little more please? I thought that declining temp help would be a good thing. For example, my company used to take in new entry level employees in batches essentially every month. Now they are taking in more interns and people from temp agencies rather than full timers. So this is an increase in temporary help at my company which is a bad thing because they choose temp help over full time employee to save on benefits and whatnot.
Similarly, does temp help ever decline at the same time that the overall unemployment picture is getting better?
June 12th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
@JohnDoe: Employers are usually hesitatant to hire full-time employees w/bene’s during a recession and even during the first stages of a recovery, so they usually ramp up on hiring temps right before a recovery is about to hit or in the early stages of one and then they start with bringing back full-timers or converting temps.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
justin Says-
“Why is it that people would rather blow smoke up the perverbial assess of the masses”
because people like Ron Paul and Ralph Nader can’t get elected
June 12th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
JohnDoe Says:
June 12th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Can somebody explain the temp help thing a little more please?
reply:
————-
If temp help is declining AND regular help is declining then all employment is declining. Temp help will increase before regular help because they are easier to get rid of if troubles occur.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Posner has no skin in the game listen:
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/06/richard_posner_1.html
June 12th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
call me ahab Says:
June 12th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
justin Says-
“Why is it that people would rather blow smoke up the perverbial assess of the masses”
reply:
———–
Maybe this is another part of VennData’s employment project. Part of the BBJ initiative.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
mannwich-
dead hobo laid it out- some decent advice- stay in cash- the game is rigged- and I don’t think anyone in positions of power gives a shit if it is widely suspected-
they’re trying to pump any asset class they can- and stocks are the easiest at the moment
June 12th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
The problem with the temp help indicator is that Japan has never converted most of their temps from their decades long malaise. Their are Temp Nation now. I think almost a third of all employees are temps in Japan. The U.S. could be headed in that direction or we’ll also just “work” as unpaid “interns”.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
@ahab: I’ve been riding the emerging markets wave, so I haven’t gotten hurt recently after getting clobbered a number of weeks ago. I’m basically neutral to partially long equities at this point, but am sitting on a bunch of cash right now too. Mostly just watching and taking a lot of time away during the day. Went for long bike ride today. Got back and the market had barely moved from when I left. I’ve been pretty bored lately and am hoping this continues throughout the summer. I’ll just get the heck out of my dungeon more and come back in September for a reprisal of last year.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
LB could use a pair of interns at Schadenfreude since the Swedish twins left.
If there is a change of government in Iran we could see a brief but sharp fall in oil and a boost to the $.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
I wouldn’t worry about silly things like jobs and unemployment…
We’re heading for a post-scarcity economic condition, BR. Government is going to invest in a bunch of new technology that’s going to create food and energy with magical nano/green technological innovations, which means nobody will need to actually work in the future. The new head of the DOE is commissioning major investment in new engine technology that will run on baby kisses and pixie dust….we will no longer be reliant on oil.
This is all going to work out great…I’m sure of it. – AT
June 12th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
call me ahab Says:
June 12th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
mannwich-
dead hobo laid it out- some decent advice- stay in cash- the game is rigged- and I don’t think anyone in positions of power gives a shit if it is widely suspected-
comment:
—————
Thank you for your support. Why play in a game with cheaters? You can’t beat them. Especially if the house is on their side. Just wait. Nothing can defy gravity forever.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
@ahab: It’s sophisticated spam. A few of them blend in b/c they are generically worded.
@willid at 3:30 pm: Thanks for the link. I’ll echo the same refrain I think a lot of people here will say. It’s not an industrial depression (although global industrial production is off horribly right now); it’s a RE asset bubble/credit crisis. Thus the supernova-sized federal deficit/Fed balance sheet. And thus the reason why RE is down more than in the GD but industry isn’t. To the point where I don’t even know why CFR feels the need to comment that industrial production numbers aren’t as bad as in the GD. Makes me wonder whether they get it.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Willid3:
BLS does not include benefits in earnings data: “Averages of hourly earnings differ from wage rates. Earnings are the actual return to the worker for a stated period; rates are the amount stipulated for a given unit of work or time. The earnings series do not measure the level of total labor costs on the part of the employer because the following are excluded: Benefits, irregular bonuses, retroactive items, payroll taxes paid by employers, and earnings for those employees not covered under production worker, construction worker, or nonsupervisory employee definitions.”
I think there are a few random items like a car allowance that are counted, but the usual benefits like health care are not included.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
@LB (3:46)
Just got in in time to see the afternoon pump…
I was getting a new internet connection installed…
June 12th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
AT Says-
“The new head of the DOE is commissioning major investment in new engine technology that will run on baby kisses and pixie dust….we will no longer be reliant on oil.”
about time- see what happens when the government takes over technology- breakthroughs!
June 12th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
TZ-
what is the point exactly- to generate clicks on the linked site- how does one get compensated- i.e where is the money generated?
June 12th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
@AT
The DOE was formed on August 4, 1977 by the Carter Administration under the guise of REDUCING OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL…
It is now a Cabinet level agency with a $26.4 billion budget (with over 16,000 federal and 100,000 contractors)…
And how did reducing our dependency on foreign oil turn out?
I can’t wait to see how running GM goes…
June 12th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
@lb(3.46) – it’s funny you said Iran elections will not have any effect on oil when I said the same thing yesterday.
Anyways, in Iran both leading parties are claiming victory..oh boy not the hanging chad situation again :)
June 12th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
@manhattanguy: Maybe they could an election reality show involving a four-way run-off, including endless court challenges, with Franken-Coleman and the Iranian candidates? We in Minny still have only one Senator representing us. That might actually be a positive considering those two numbskulls.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
cvienne Says:
June 12th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
I can’t wait to see how running GM goes…
reply:
————-
Cars with 5 wheels are very safe. Cars with only 4 will cost a little extra to subsidize health care.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Cvienne Says-
“The DOE was formed on August 4, 1977 by the Carter Administration under the guise of REDUCING OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL…”
and lets not forget the Dept of Education- established 1980- they’ve done a pretty bang up job- what they do exactly I have no clue- but I’ll tell you what they haven’t done- improved education- should be abolished
June 12th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
@ahab: I always just assume the links are to porn sites or worse.
@cvienne: I think Carter was sincere about reducing dependence on foreign oil, a “downer” anti-consumer message that Ronnie flipped on him to great success as part of “Morning in America,” if you’re old enough to remember back that far.
People forget that there were a lot of PSAs on TV in the 70s after the Embargo about driving 55 to maximize gas mileage under the national speed limit requirement of the Emergency Highway Energy Conservation Act of 1974 signed by Tricky Dick, if you can believe it. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=4332
June 12th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
mannwich-
why don’t they just do another election- I’ve wondered why that hasn’t been thrown out there as an option
June 12th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
@LB
Re: “Wonder where cvienne and MEH are? I had some options questions going into next week.”
I’ve gotta check out again in a minute here my friend so I’m just doing a drive by…
I can’t believe you’re asking ME about options so I don’t know what’s on your mind…All I can say is this (If I’m away when you read this)…
Look at the WEEKLY CHART on the S&P (you can look at the NASDAQ too if you want)…I see 12 out of the last 14 weeks as black candlesticks…The only two red candlesticks on the weekly chart were May opex week and the “week after” April opex…Although 4/13, 14, 15 (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday) traded down after hitting a high near the end of the previous week…
I’m not saying anything, just a simple observation…
June 12th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
@ahab: Who’s going to pay for it? I don’t want to fund it with our tax dollars. Coleman should just give up. If the roles were reversed the GOP would be all over the Dem to “do the right thing for MN/the country”, blah, blah, blah……
If Coleman wants a political future here in Minny (rumor has him running for governor, which is laughable), he should have given it up a long time ago. The people have lost patience, even many folks who voted for him, and will not take kindly to these shenanigans if he tries to run for office again.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
@ahab
Are you singing PINK FLOYD on a Friday afternoon?
“We don’t need no ed-u-cation”…
June 12th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
TZ-
55 mph was a joke- no-one drove that slow- that’s why CB’s and radar detectors became popular-
sure pumped up the coffers in the States and local jurisdictions with speed traps
June 12th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
@Manny
Re: We in Minny still have only one Senator representing us. That might actually be a positive considering those two numbskulls.
Manny, the “positive” side is that it keeps the SNL writers employed…
June 12th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
sbailey, if they aren’t covering benefits (which is what i was always told….but you know that goes some one reports a rumor and before long every one thinks its true!). then how do wages go at odd times? i don’t think i have ever been where wages could or would go up at any other time than January or mid year. But they seem to show them go up (on occasion) at any other time too. and other than some one getting a new job (like now???????????!!) I don’t see it happening
June 12th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
The Brad Setser article is worth a glance about where treasuries are going..
“Total US borrowing by the non-financial sector (annualized) was under $1.4 trillion in the first quarter — down from $1.9 trillion in calendar 2008 and $2.5 trillion in calendar 2007. In the first quarter, Americans borrowed less, at an annualized rate than they did in 2003.
…” Firms and households combined to reduce their borrowing by a bit less than $200 billion ($184.1 billion). To put that in perspective, households and firms borrowed over $2 trillion in 2006. That is an epic fall.”
June 12th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
mannwich-
sorry dude- I haven’t been following it- but I was thinking all the legal wrangling cost a boatload too- that was my only point- that a new election may have been cheaper
June 12th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
@Transor
Re: I think Carter was sincere about reducing dependence on foreign oil…
I don’t disagree with you there…All I’m really referring to is the “law of unintended consequences”…
I think we’ll find that out sooner or later when we look back on this GM situation (& Chrysler too for that matter)…
It’s useless for me to argue about it though…The die has been cast…
June 12th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
If this keeps up, borrowing will be 50% of 2007 levels in 2009…
Who would have ever believed it?
June 12th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/06/12/just-who-bought-all-the-treasuries-the-issued-in-late-2008-and-early-2009/#more-5624
Just who bought all the Treasuries the issued in late 2008 and early 2009?
June 12th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
B in T @ 4:58-
about time- maybe we can start acting like reasonable, thoughtful and thrifty human beings again- instead of spoiled, decadent, wasteful people we have become
June 12th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
@Transor
…and to add to that
Sure I remember those days…I was still a teenager, but I remember the gas lines after the Arab oil embargo…I remember “odd/even” license plates for fill-ups…
I remember how the CB radio craze partly got started after that 55 MPH law (as people used to use the CB’s to look out for “smokies”)…
Again…
My only point is this…A LOT CAN HAPPEN after the USG gets involved with trying to “fix” something (even if they “think” it 4 a good cause)…
Hell, Carter himself, I think was the first one to install solar panels on the roof of the WH (I’d have to check my facts)…And back then, “nukes” weren’t a problem because 3 mile island didn’t occur until 1979…
For a myriad of reasons, this country eventually got over the “embargo”, decided to Rock the Casbah, and the oil party continued…
I’m pretty sure that 90% of the “justifications” to spend money today will be looked upon 30 years from now and seem to be ridiculous…Can you imagine carter “crapping his pants” if, back in ’77, someone told him that the DOE would require this kind of budget to keep in operation?
June 12th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
“@lb(3.46) – it’s funny you said Iran elections will not have any effect on oil when I said the same thing yesterday.”
Was that me? Probably a misunderstanding. I am not arguing with you, I agree in the short term. I do think crude is mainly all about the dollar, medium term.
June 12th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
cvienne….
Please don’t taunt me into going off on a Libertarian rant here….
I’m so disgusted with the size and scope of the government….the Departments of Energy, Agriculture, Education, Health and Human Services, Interior, Homeland Security should all be abolished poste-haste. Either that, or they should at least relocate these departments around the country so that all the cities can enjoy the taxpayer largesse that funds these behemoths.
The way I see it…we probably need: the DoD, the DoJ….and ummmm….maybe that’s about it.
June 12th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Leftback – I agree, I don’t think that news, or reality, or anything else right now has an affect on oil, It’s on it’s own wild ride right now. Wonder how high it’s going to end up and whether it’ll come crashing down again
June 12th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
@cv: I would have to say in all honesty that, other than the weekly petroleum report at EIA, I don’t really know what the hell DOE does.
June 12th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Here’s my sign for a reliable economic turnaround: When Jim Cramer joins the ranks of the unemployed. That will be an awesome leading indicator.
June 12th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Worse than that if truth were told…
http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2009/0709miller.html
Excerpt
The Real Unemployment Rate Hits a 68-Year High
Comparing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “U-3” and “U-6” rates.
By John Miller
Although you have to dig into the statistics to know it, unemployment in the United States is now worse than at any time since the end of the Great Depression.
From December 2007, when the recession began, to May of this year, 6.0 million U.S. workers lost their jobs. The big three U.S. automakers are closing plants and letting white-collar workers go too. Chrysler, the worst off of the three, will lay off one-quarter of its workforce even if it survives. Heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar and giant banking conglomerate Citigroup have both laid off thousands of workers. Alcoa, the aluminum maker, has let workers go. Computer maker Dell and express shipper DHL have both canned many of their workers. Circuit City, the leading electronics retailer, went out of business, costing its 40,000 workers their jobs. Lawyers in large national firms are getting the ax. Even on Sesame Street, workers are losing their jobs.
Charts at site
See also great Ticker today.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1117-Heads-In-The-Guillotine.html
June 12th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
Unemployed life :)
Laid-Off: A Day in the Life
http://www.oddtodd.com/index2.html
June 13th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
For those taht want to read it all, I found a copy of David Rosenberg’s take on declining work week hours (june5):
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/6846932/Coffee-with-Dave_060509
June 14th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Is there a problem with “continuing claims” in that the number is greatly depending on how many weeks people are allowed to continue claiming unemployment support before they are kicked out of the system ?
It seems to me that a great jump may occur simply as a result of allowing people to stay on unemployment support for a longer period.