10 Links
I keep getting carried away with the daily clickage/linkfest. Today, its only 10 links for Wednesday:
• Foreclosures Are Often In Lenders’ Best Interest Government initiatives to stem the country’s mounting foreclosures are hampered because banks and other lenders in many cases have more financial incentive to let borrowers lose their homes than to work out settlements, some economists have concluded. (Washington Post)
• The war being waged on the TARP watchdog’s independence (Salon)
• Stephen Roach writes: I’ve been an optimist on China. But I’m starting to worry (FT)
• UBS’ Andy Lees is giving away for free his book on fixing the crisis: The Credit Crunch – Treating the disease rather than the symptoms
• Study Finds Underwater Borrowers Drowned Themselves with Refinancings (WSJ Development)
• Quant Paul Wilmott asks if we are Hurrying Into the Next Panic? (NYT)
• New Wrinkle in Health-Care Debate (Barron’s)
• Madoff: Can’t Believe I Got Away with It (ABC)
• Prof. Gates’ Unconstitutional Arrest (Forbes)
• Uranium Ore (Amazon) The reviews are hilarious . . .
I like the new strategy: Limit myself to no more than 10 of the most interesting and off the beaten path links each day.
Rather than being comprehensive, force myself to just 10.
Thoughts?
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July 29th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Limiting it to 10 links is a good idea imo.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Adhering to a strict 10 link limit needlessly complicates the decision-making process, imo. any number up to a baker’s dozen is good.. i really look forward to the linkfests, btw. thank you.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Here’s a view for you:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20Dark%20Years%20Are%20Here.pdf
July 29th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
More on Goldman’s influence:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/business/29pensions.html
July 29th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
I’m going to suggest some Ireland related reading for those interested in “Bad Banks”, government intervention, and asset valuation after a property bubble, I recommend the following presentation, given by an economist to the Green Party (who are a minority party in government here).
Background: To prevent nationalisation of any more Irish banks the government has established the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) who will buy loans off the banks books. However the valuation is where it gets interesting – they are looking at buying them at a 20-25% discount, using a model that utilises “long-term economic value” which is non-descript nonsense and means they can make it up. JPM (and anyone with common sense) is estimating 35-50% impairment, although that could well be conservative. Oh and the government is buying “good” loans too. Which is non-sense as they are selling bonds to buy good assets, so require a decent return just to breakeven!
Summary: Irish tax payer getting screwed.
Presentation: http://www.karlwhelan.com/IrishEconomy/gp-presentation.pdf (the first two slides are a dummies guide to assets, it gets good then)
For those interested the author of the presentation blogs at http://www.irisheconomy.ie
July 29th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Back from a round of 9 holes. Gorgeous day here. Green shoots for Mannwich.
Looks like I got back in time for the final hour pump. Perfect timing to watch computers trading with each other replay the same thing every day over and over again. Ground Hog Day in the summer.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Looks O’s own doctor finds the health care plan greatly lacking……pretty telling. These times call not for incrementalism but real leadership, but our politicians only care about one thing – re-election.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/29/obamas-doctor-presidents_n_246870.html
Ahab is right. The only real way to fix the health care system is to cut out the for-profit insurers, the parasitic middle men who are stealing from the country to the tune of billions and at great detriment to our health.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
BR,
I don’t mind the longer threads with more than 10 links, I just won’t read them all. I’d rather you pick out what catches your eye and the readers can decide what to skip over. If more people like 10 or less though, I guess you just go with that.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,638981-2,00.html
Recession Robs Spain’s Youth of Jobs and Hope
…..”But last year, after the summer holidays, the real estate market’s gigantic bubble burst. The same banks that had recently been handing out mortgages with abandon were now only reluctantly granting credit for building projects, and interest rates were skyrocketing. There are now a million vacant apartments. Likewise, people who piled up debt now have to pay off the absurdly inflated original price of their properties rather than the substantially lower current value. Many of them can no longer afford their loan payments. Of course, they would love to sell off their properties, but no one is buying.”
July 29th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
I don’t mind the comprehensive set of links. Your top 10 might not appeal to me on a given day, but something in your top 15 or 20 might.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
So we will know which ten you think most germane and relevant, why not list your daily Top Ten, followed by as many other “minor” links as have struck your fancy.
July 29th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Arbitrary. The electrons are “free”, or at least very low cost :) . Let ‘er rip, I say. Whatever’s appropriate. Folks can pick and choose and make their own choices about how much time they have.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
“The only real way to fix the health care system is to cut out the for-profit insurers, the parasitic middle men who are stealing from the country to the tune of billions and at great detriment to our health.”
Indeed, and check out the hospital administrator salaries while you are at it. Wall Street numbers for local bean counters always raises a few eyebrows, eh? LB should be able to pay B in T directly to saw his leg off.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Mannwich @ 3:52
“The only real way to fix the health care system is to cut out the for-profit insurers, the parasitic middle men who are stealing from the country to the tune of billions and at great detriment to our health”
Problem is, if you cut out all the insurers, you’ve got just the government as the insurer. If Medicare is the model, there’s a lot wrong with it. The payments by Medicare to physicians are often ludicrously low… the only way that the physicians can survive is by overcharging people with private insurance to compensate. Many doctors won’t take Medicare at all. So yes, a single-payer system could potentially cut costs, but the quality would suffer considerably. People who are currently uninsured might well be better off under a single-payer system than they are now. But people who have insurance that they are reasonably happy with (people such as myself) would be worse off.
I don’t have any specific data on health insurance companies. But is it really true that their profit margins are really so much higher than insurers who operate in other markets?
July 29th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Let’s go with a minimum of 20 links. Your links are very helpful ! If were not interested in the topic, then just scroll away.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
@DL: Former United Health CEO DOCTOR Bill McGuire made over $1 Billion in his reign at the company. I think your question is answered right there. The insurers are making money hand over fist denying coverage to people everywhere, even ones that thought they had coverage.
So you mean to tell me we can’t take some of the best models out there (however flawed they are, they do work better than ours does for the MANY), put our own twists on them and call them our system, and one that works better than what we’ve got now? Sorry but I don’t buy it.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
DL-
you are right in many ways- but-
if it is to happen anyway- let’s don’t have a slopped up system that caters to the insurers at the behest of the insurance lobby-
all that will happen then is higher payroll taxes to cover expanded medicare/medicaid coverage to cover the uninsured and employer mandates requiring insurance- thereby strenghtening the insurer’s hand- with higher premiums to cover statutory requirements that there are no pre-exisiting condition exclusions and that it is portable-
what a collosal mess that would be-
single payer or forget it
July 29th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Mannwich,
My question pertains to profit MARGINS, not to what one person made. (I think that in the case you’re referring to there was back-dating of options).
………………………………………………
This link makes the argument that insurance company profit margins are very slim:
http://www.joepaduda.com/archives/000025.html
(There may be contrasting analyses out there, however).
……………………………
Everyone, of all political stripes, agrees that the health care system is “broken”. I just think that for Obama personally, issues like cost and quality are best put off until after the next presidential election.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
@ahab: It seems our policies must involve high complexity, much like our tax code. That complexity is the only thing keeping more people from being unemployed (e.g. tax accountants).
July 29th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
@DL: I understand what you’re saying but what actual utility do the insurers play in our health care system other than siphoning off big cash for themselves at everyone else’s expense?
By the way, even without the options backdating, McGuire still made about $500-$700MM+ while CEO at United Health Group while finding creative ways to stiff their policy holders and providers.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Mannwich,
Rather than getting into a complex analysis, I’ll agree that insurance companies do stiff a lot of people. (But they’re not all bad).
But how ever we change the system, there are going to be a lot of “winners and losers”, even among ordinary “Joe six packs”.
July 29th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Jimmy Fallon on proposed Health Care legislation HR 3200:
http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/clips/hr-3200-infomercial-72409/1138951?dst=nbc|widget|NBC%20Video&__source=nbc|widget|NBC%20Video
July 29th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
mannwich says-
“It seems our policies must involve high complexity, much like our tax code. That complexity is the only thing keeping more people from being unemployed (e.g. tax accountants).”
undoubtedly- with complexity you will always need the expert to help you thorugh the process-
without complexity maybe there will be too many people sitting around with nothing to do
July 29th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
I vote for the full link dump. I usually cut down the ones I click through based on subject matter, and your summary.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
McGuire for Treasury Secretary!! If I’m not mistaken United Health is the only supplementary Medicare carrier that AARP endorses. But hey, I wouldn’t endorse either.
I love these two: “Foreclosures Are Often In Lenders’ Best Interest…some economists have concluded.” And “Study Finds Underwater Borrowers Drowned Themselves with Refinancings” Really?? And it only took them this long to figure that out. Yep, I agree with many of the others, expand the link fest and I’ll choose what I want to read. Thank you…
July 29th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
No green shoots for Vegas or leveraged-up-to-their-eyeballs-due-to-going-private-at-top-of-the-market Harrah’s……
This was a well run company before they were buried in debt in this private equity deal.
http://www.casinojournal.com/Articles/Newsletter/BNP_GUID_9-5-2006_A_10000000000000632757?from=email
July 29th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Dan Boren (D-Oklahoma): I am against a public option because I have to protect the health insurance companies in my state.
Wow. Just wow.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
@Okie: At least he’s being honest about it. I give him points for that. The others are thinking the same thing. They’re just savvy and slimy enough to not actually say it. Might as well say it because everyone knows it anyway.
July 29th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Interesting links….the quant professor doesn’t say it directly, but you know he’s thinking it…there is trouble brewing with these High Frequency/Algo Trading strategies….These algo trading programs will sell as quickly as they buy, but there is a interesting dynamic with stocks, as opposed to other traded assets: most people are long. Unlike commodity futures, where there’s an equal number of longs and shorts, with stocks people are mostly just long. So, if for some reason the tide turns lower, and these rapid-fire algo’s start zapping the stocks instead of juicing them, it could get a bit vicious. I’m sure these programs helped along the dramatic collapse last year.
The underwater homeowners link was interesting and definitely counter to the prevailing sense one gets watch MSM. The only way the american sheeple could tolerate handing out this much money is with something that sounds like a good story….”we were so unfortunate…we bought at the wrong time and now we have a problem. Please help.” Reading this story, you don’t get that sense at all….a lot of these folks with problems bought several years ago, but by levering up their homes to buy crap they didn’t need, they drowned themselves….
July 29th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
@DL:
Just wait until you have a serious illness or injury and your health insurer says “rescission” on you.
Words You Won’t Hear in a (Single Payor) System
July 29th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
“government insurance”….
We already have that. It’s called TRICARE.
It’s an excellent plan that seems to work great for military, and gov personnel.
It’s not the goldplated stuff that Congress gets…but its a very good system.
When we go to doc we get statement a few weeks later….with amount doc claimed…and amount Tricare paid. Often they are more than 200% apart. I suspect Tricare doesn’t get defrauded too much.
This whole healthcare thing pisses me off frankly.
This nation doesn’t need healthcare. It needs jobs.
It needs someone to stand up to the banksters who are plundering our future.
The fucking barn is on fire….and O is worrying if the livestock inside has been fed and watered.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Limiting oneself to 10 of anything a day works: drinks, women…lol
July 29th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Christopher:
We needs jobs, too. But our healthcare system is also making us uncompetitive as it has driven up costs beyond to the point that they are pricing American products out of the market. So fixing healthcare is part of the jobs equation.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Frankly, I find it interesting (and sad) that the whole issue of health care is even adjudicated by a body (Congress) that has the health care plan maybe in the world. How can they even come close to empathizing what the average person goes through in dealing with their own care when their plan doesn’t even remotely resemble that of 90%+ of this country? Maybe they should be required to have the same plans as the rest of us? If that were the case, I can guarantee you that things would change dramatically…….but probably for THEM and their own friends.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
…that has the BEST health care plan…..
July 29th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
I never read lists of a certain number of things. I find it saves a great deal of surf time…
July 29th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Respectfully Okie Lawyer, I’m sure you know a lot more about the nuts and bolts of the issue than I.
But I can promise you that More Government is not the answer.
I don’t believe that rising healthcare costs are the root of the joblessness issue. I don’t think that is provable. I think the problem is rooted in greed, stupidity, and debt….whatever order you prefer.
Yes. Healthcare costs are rising.
Yes. The health insurance industry is rife with waste, fraud, and abuse.
Yes. It should be addressed.
But it is not a Political Issue. That is what is has been made now.
Politics as Usual.
And nothing will get fixed.
Sorry man….long week already….don’t mean to vent.
I voted for the guy…but he is really pissing me off.
I thought he was smarter than all of this.
July 29th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Another on BB’s Exit Strategy:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/28/news/economy/bernanke_fed_inflation.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009072908
July 29th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
@Christopher: THIS government (and its people) may not be the answer, but other gov’t's and its people have come up with decent, if flawed, better systems than ours. It’s all about collective will of the people. We don’t have it. Until we get it, nothing will change. Probably needs to be more anguish and pain for enough people to get there. We’re a long ways off.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Any link Barry wants to post is okay with me.
Eliminating the for-profit insurers is the key to success.
Corporations are terrified of this prospect. In many cases people are chained to a job because of health
benefits. If people were allowed to quit their jobs and still retain their health care, it would cause a tremendous upheaval in the work place. A flexible workforce would vastly hasten any nascent economic recovery.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
“It needs someone to stand up to the banksters who are plundering our future.
The fucking barn is on fire….and O is worrying if the livestock inside has been fed and watered.”
poetic my friend- poetic- couldn’t agree more
July 29th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Around 10 for the weekdays is fine, but it would be nice if you could go deep on the weekend :)
July 29th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
@Daffy: Excellent observation. Health care outside of the employer might actually increase bargaining power for employees in a round about way. Perhaps that is what they’re afraid of – they don’t want to loosen the chains. Once that happens, many who are terrified of losing their healthcare if they leave, will be able to demand more in terms of salary, bonus, perks, etc.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
@Manny “We’re a long ways off.”
I was reading today where extended unemployment benefits will end for 500K in September and another 1.5M in December. These were the folks who started collecting at the end of 2008. Which means that the next (much larger) wave will start rolling off between January and March of 2010.
That’s another 2M plus. So, perhaps we’re (not) a long ways off after all.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
The key is for me to be efficient and focused — the top10 does that.
It becomes a puzzle, keeping it tight.
I can always use rhe comments for the surplus.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
And if anyone ever confirmed how completely and totally stupid they really are it’s Barney Frank threatening banks that are continuing with foreclosures.
I suppose he’d rather the govt pass a bill covering all delinquent mortgage payments from TARP.
On the other hand I’d rather see that than GS and AIG on the dole. Doesn’t say much.
But Frank as of today really needs to get bounced and soon.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
mannwich says-
“Once that happens, many who are terrified of losing their healthcare if they leave, will be able to demand more in terms of salary, bonus, perks, etc.”
good observation
July 29th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Excellent points all.
I think the root question is if “life, liberty, pursuit of happiness” includes healthcare.
If so….then the for-profit insurers are bloated ticks that needs to be set afire on the end of a pin.
If not….then this is all bullshit. Just Politics as Usual. That is what I see happening now.
July 29th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
A link for the link threads….Thanks Barry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sADa7d5vwKE
July 29th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
@Manny
What did ya shoot?
July 29th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Daffyorbugs:
The key word you might be looking for is “portability.” If you can take your healthcare (and your retirement pension, for that matter) with you, it vastly increases your bargaining power. In the short run, I don’t think it matters much, as high unemployment is depressing the bargaining power of workers. However, in the long run it will help.
July 29th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
as Christopher opined-
if health care is a public benefit- a right- then insurers need to be cut out of the mix- the profit motive needs to be removed-
so if it is not government run- then- don’t slop it up any more than it is already- by increasing the insurer’s hand by mandating employer provided coverage-
will only insure that nothing is changed and that costs are not contained- an added layer of expense
July 29th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
@BR
You don’t have to worry about being focused…You already are my friend…I actually like a lot of the stuff on the right (in the Think Tank column) to express a view…
@Andy T
“there is trouble brewing with these High Frequency/Algo Trading strategies”
My thoughts exactly…In fact, the only thing that has been preventing me from LOSING A FORTUNE during this bear rally has been the notion that algo’s are in control…There is NO WAY IN HELL that a rational human mind would conjure up trading patterns as we have seen the past 5 months (parts of it YES, but the TOTALITY, no)…
It’s ALIEN…and ALIEN means “programmed”…
Fortunately, they still have time and vectors on their side…but I have been beginning to notice quite a lot of what I call MIRROR PATTERNS…It’s like someone took the the old “punch card” program from June 1st to June 11th, and plugged it into the system on July 23rd…or…the move off of 869 was the same as the move off of the March 6 lows…
What does it portend?
Well, sooner or later, even the algos are going to run out of real estate (to call this thing higher)…2nd, some HUMANS are going to start to see the repetitive patterns and when the time & capital are right they’re going to BREAK them…
What will happen?
Well, just imagine to what a pilot might have to do if an electrical storm shorts out his on board navigation system…
Hopefully the trusty “Otto” will be ready to be inflated…
July 29th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
to follow on andy’s and cvienne’s observation on “flash trading”-
“Goldman algo strategy splits an incoming block trade into smaller (child) components, these orders will first be advance-exposed to Goldman’s own prop strategies which get a “first look” (no pun intended) at the order flow to dispose of as they desire. Additionally, due to the flashing advance window, Goldman implicitly knows in advance of a potential spike in order flow – in other words if there is a size buyer or seller of any given particular stock – an incalculable edge in today’s market, allowing one to potentially take”
from ZH
sounds pretty fair I guess
July 29th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
my last comment should be labeled [snark]- also last line was left out-
“advantage (frontrun) of forced buyins and unwinds and major block trades.”
undoubtedly
July 29th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
@ahab
Kid Dynamite is going to slam you for that!
Put on your raincoat…
IMO…If you’re curious…I don’t really effin’ care (Note: don’t read that in a way that makes me sound pissed off at you or anyone else – I’m not, I’m just making a comment)…
Anyway…I’ve stated this before, I’m not really concerned whether or not high freqs are frontrunning or not, or gaining an advantage…SURE, I’m a little jealous…But what the hell? I don’t think that there is a business out there that SOMEONE doesn’t have a marginal advantage…
Nominate whatever you choose…
- The Patriots have their videocameras
- Politicians have their grease
- Athletes have their steroids
- Good looking female execs have their sex appeal
- Minorities have quotas
Personally, I don’t mind playing in a “rigged” game as long as I know the game is “rigged”
That’s why I love the game of golf (as a player)…Do you realize that I once lost a tournament by a shot because I had to call a penalty on myself? I swear, nobody would have ever known (it was a minor ball movement that occurred while I was sweeping away a pine needle)…But that’s what you do…
If you DON’T (charge yourself with a penalty)…You can’t sleep so well…You’re sick to your stomach…
July 29th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
cvienne-
I get you- but-
if it’s rigged- why would someone want to play?
how do I compete against all odds- and expect to make my reasonable assumptions pay out?
tough call there
July 29th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
@ahab
I swear ahab…
Everything in life is all about surviving ON THE MARGIN…
If a person can’t survive ON THE SLIMMEST MARGIN, he/she is not cut out for survival…
Know THAT biosphere…Understand THAT biosphere and a complex organism can survive…Occasionally PROSPER…
All that I really see when I see an economic downturn (as we are experiencing) are a bunch of fools who never understood the concept of surviving on the margin…
I’m not a big WB fan, but I love some of his witty comments…One of my favorites is…
“When the tide goes out, you see who’s swimming without a bathing suit”
Anyway, trading isn’t any different…Heck, if you need some inspiration, read Sun-Tzu’s “The Art of War”…That helps prepare ANYONE for the myriad of enemies they may face…
July 29th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Barry, if you’re asking people to validate YOUR feelings about doing a list of 10, well, I think somebody didn’t do his daily affirmation today and is should-ing all over himself.
Here are my ten responses to whether you should do lists of ten:
10. Whateva! I do what I want! (Cartman)
9. 1010 (binary 10 is even ten-ier!)
8. I think you should offer to sell your 10 so that I can front-run TBP readers, buy for 10.01, and sell it back to them for 10.01 and a liquidity bonus (sorry, KD)
7. Add 1 thru 10 and you get 55. Add 5+5 and you get 10. FREAKY!
6. To keep it fresh, generate a random number from 1 -12 and do that many. Then cut or add more to get to 10. Then ask yourself what the fuck you’re doing.
5. One of the ten has to come from one of those random blog page generators.
4. One of the ten has to be a functioning link to the Erin Andrews peephole videos.
3. It is really hard to generate lists of 10, isn’t it?
2. December used to be the tenth month.
1. We support you in whatever you choose, Barry.
July 29th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
On health-care:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-scary-reason-healthcare-cant-be-reformed-2009-7
July 29th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
I know I’m late to this party, but as many links as catch your eye so long as you give a one line read as to what it’s about ( I read the zero hedge one from yesterday would love for C G or any of their on air talent to draft a cogent reply) I go back to the old days when the weekend linkfest was the highlight/ Or maybe Friday Night Jazz.
July 29th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
@markd
I gotta say that BR’s been slacking on the Friday Night Jazz lately…The TRIBE has been trying to pick up the slack, but it can end up WHO KNOWS WHERE…
I mean…last week I was puttin’ on Lynrd Skynrd & The Strolling Bones (um – Rolling Stones)…so there is clearly mahem in Margaritaville…
July 29th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
@ Andy T 5:58 pm
You don’t have to have a lot of experience with large, complex automated systems that handle millions of transactions a day (or in this case, probably billions) to see the wisdom in this quant’s essay.
But it helps. An old saw is that when you start handling millions of transactions daily, it doesn’t take very long before impossibly rare coincidences (that have been discounted simply because they are SOOO unlikely) begin to occur with disturbing regularity, courtesy of the combinations of millions of situations that occur in millions of sequences. As anyone who maintains large complex IT systems for a living knows, there is always a bug or two left in the works. Good software is peppered with comments to the effect of, “this should be impossible”, followed by logic that deals with the impossibilities in the best way possible that preserves the larger system integrity. I betcha the higher-level algorithms that coordinate the strategies of the lower-level programs in these sophisticated high-speed market manipulating systems have none of these sort of fail-safes, that attempt to recognize the impossible situations and get out alive.
I can easily predict the nature of the coming failure — it will be one that involves a weakness of escalating increasingly unlikely risk by pursuing exponentially greater profits. And like all such systems, it will work perfectly — right up to the point where it doesn’t, at a point just a little way into The Twilight Zone.
July 29th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
@cn
WOW
That’s EXACTLY what I’ve been thinking but you expressed it very well (and therefore should be given thanks for the dirty work)…
I actually think that WHEN the time approaches, the false unnatural-ness of the patterns will be visible to the HUMAN eye…
Kinda of like when you see a woman with FAKE BOOBS…You’re like, “ooh – do I really want to grab onto those things”?
July 29th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
I’m gonna keep it light tonight……1) Celebrity websites to boycott Megan Fox on August 4 http://www.popeater.com/movies/article/megan-fox-media-blackout-news/593937?icid=main|main|dl7|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.popeater.com%2Fmovies%2Farticle%2Fmegan-fox-media-blackout-news%2F593937
and “Barack Urkel” starring in “Economy Matters” http://contraryriches.blogspot.com/2009/07/economy-matters-starring-barack-urkel.html
July 29th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
investorinpa has hit the motherlode of LMAO- quick image attached-
http://scottthong.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/obamurkelecon.jpg
July 29th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
oh by the way= thx for the link
July 29th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
It seems to me that the HFT/Algo dyad is an instrument, and that it is more useful to have an idea of what the goals are rather than the means. They can’t hide all their moves (and sometimes evidence of hiding tells you more than knowing the secret itself). If they are providing 70% of the trades, they are revealing too much.
Additionally, the presence of so much ‘not liquidity’ is meaningful. It is like a pond full of decoy ducks-the way they bob on the surface just isn’t kosher. Find the ponds where the ducks behave like ducks.
As far as links go, I recommend a brief interview with that Lakshman Achuthan:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ae8p1Bzzqdjk
Regarding healthcare, in Puerto Rico there was 2007 case before their Tribunal Supremo (Rodriguez Ruiz v. Hosp. San Jorge)- immunity was conferred on a doctor from a malapractice suit because he was considered to be an employee of the Commonwealth in his capacity as a consulting physician while participating in a UniPR program. Now, HC under the govt would have funny consequences. You see, a change in structural context will not eliminate the deeply predatory nature of many of our fellow citizens. It would merely reshape it.
July 29th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
People don’t realize how tenuous their coverage is in an economy with increasing unemployment.
FWIW, health insurance was a big reason for the exodus from NOLA after Hurricane Katrina. Many people had lost jobs that supplied health insurance, like my wife’s. We could have replaced it through the bar association, for, say $2500/mo with about a 5k deductible., so she came over to Houston for a job with insurance. From what I read and heard, this was a big factor in the middle class emigration; they couldn’t just hang around to wait for recovery while burning through assets. If there hadn’t been a need to go elsewhere for insurance the recovery probalby would have worked better because of the presence of more skilled workers.
As it was, those on medicaid/medicare were able to stay because they don’t have to worry such things. So you wound up with a bigger percentage of the disabled or poor.
Another affect was on the local hospitals that survived the storm. The shortage of health care meant treatment of many many people through ER’s, which meant the hospitals were forced to treat the uninsured under the law. The other problem was that the hospitals had to increase pay to attract staff back, but didn’t get increased payments from the government to offset the increased costs. This almost caused some of the private non-profits to go under, including the oldest hospital in the City.
Another variation was a friend’s case. Self employed with a wife who taught at Tulane which provided health insurance. She learned she was laid off via email and they replaced the coverage through the bar association at a high price for awhile but had the same problem of it costing a fortune. She finally managed to land a job with an outfit in D.C. She gets to work from home one week/month and flies home most weekends. During the weeks in DC she has to share some less than desirable living quarters.
Don’t feel smug if you have insurance, you are a pink slip or natural disaster away from hell.
July 29th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Mike-
Thanks for the notes on that issue in the New Orleans context.
I am not against reform- I am interested in a radical restructuring of how healthcare happens in the US. My interest in noting the PR case was to identify one of those points of paradox- the doctor was involved in something called “Plan Intramural Universitaria de Práctica Médica” and its focus was (I believe) to attend to the HC needs on at risk populations. The issues surrounding costs, pricing, compensation and recourse as well as harmonizing a plan with the deep structure of the legal system in the US are mind-boggling. The rhetoric being bandied about by the sociopaths in NoVa and environs is sickening and is designed to lead us away from any meaningful action on HC. Regardless of the final system’s design, if fundamental changes in behavior aren’t forthcoming, what’s the point?
July 29th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
Reviewing the last couple of paragraphs in the Paul Wilmott op-ed piece “Hurrying Into the Next Panic?”, it strikes me that with the bulk of the trading — or at least a very large fraction of it — coming courtesy of automated systems, we may have already entered that state where the bulk of the trades are very short-term in nature, escalating volatility (regardless of whatever the VIX measures) and preparing for some magnificent positive-feedback swings.
Well, I wonder if we are not on the brink of a renaissance of buy-and-hold as a worthwhile strategy. If true, I totally missed the ascendancy of trading as the strategy for Everyman.
Hopefully, it’s not too late to begin planning for The Next Big Thing. Time to crack open the Ben Graham texts and re-acquaint myself with value.
July 29th, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Coming soon to your town, New York’s finest, er homeless:
Some homeless with one-way tickets out of New York head to Louisiana
http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/some_homeless_with_oneway_tick.html
Just what a city that isn’t even half recovered from the last disaster needs.
I suppose The Big Apple is trying to follow the China model of exporting it’s way to affluence :)
July 29th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
between “cn” & “Mike in NOLA”
we’ve had some pretty poignant posts (hope I didn’t spit on you there Neidermeyer) this evening…
It’s late, so hopefully they will not abandon themselves into the electron ether…
I appreciate your comments…
July 29th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Hear, hear Mike! We absolutely need to decouple health insurance from employment/employers. There are so many things wrong with it and so many ways it causes problems. Whatever we do, we really must address this problem with HC. Unfortunately, it appears that we are not headed that way. Unbelievable. They’re gonna screw this thing up big time trying to thread their way through all the influential interests.
Just so aggravating. And I’m a lucky one with coverage as a military retiree. But I just see so much tragedy coming for those without insurance in the next few years as this grinds on.
As Mike put it: “Don’t feel smug if you have insurance, you are a pink slip or natural disaster away from hell.”
Amen
July 30th, 2009 at 8:24 am
I concurr with Ben22 among others. List whatever catches your fancy with a brief description. We can filter to follow what we want. Thanks for the effort, some of your links are fascinating.
July 30th, 2009 at 11:05 am
@ Barry Ritholtz 7:36 pm
The key is for me to be efficient and focused — the top10 does that.
… and a major reason we come here is for YOUR take on what is most germane and relevant, the links to what you consider wheat and not those you have winnowed out as chaff.