Advance GDP = -1.0%
Official GDP release:
“Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009, (that is, from the first quarter to the second), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 6.4 percent.
The decrease in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased . . .The much smaller decrease in real GDP in the second quarter than in the first primarily reflected much smaller decreases in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in private inventory
investment, upturns in federal government spending and in state and local government spending, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a much smaller decrease in imports and a downturn in PCE.”
A few other items:
-Federal Spending up a huge 11%;
-Real personal consumption expenditures decreased 1.2%;
-Smaller decreases were seen in business investment, exports and inventories;
-This is the first time we have had 4 consecutive negative quarters of GDP since record keeping began in 1947;
-Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 8.9%;
-Last Quarter’s GDP was revised down from negative 5.5% to negative 6.4%;
Peter Boockvar notes that GDP fell more than expected as the deflator rose just .2% (vs expectations of a gain of 1%). Had the deflator been in line, REAL GDP would have fallen 1.8%.
Bottomline: An improving, but weak report.
>
Source:
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2009 (Advance Estimate)
BEA, JULY 31, 2009
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
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July 31st, 2009 at 8:38 am
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/pdf/gdp2q09_adv_fax.pdf
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009,
(that is, from the first quarter to the second), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau
of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 6.4 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page
3). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
August 27, 2009.
July 31st, 2009 at 8:41 am
Apologies for the cross post … this was down so far I don’t think anyone would have seen it.
—————————————————————————————————————–
gregh Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 12:31 am
i’m not sure what to make of the cars issue.
Reply:
———–
http://www.autoobserver.com/2009/04/goldman-ups-its-2009-car-sales-forecast.html
Excerpt
———-
Goldman Ups Its 2009 Car Sales Forecast
April 23, 2009
Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast for 2009 new vehicle sales from 10 million to 11 million.
******************************
Now, do the math:
250,000 sales * 52 weeks = 13,000,000 annualized rate.
10,500,000 / 52 = 202,000
Implication: a $3500 – $4500 guaranteed trade in on top on massive discounting brought about 50,000 additional sales to the dealers.
-OR-
$1,000,000,000 /50,000 = $20,000 => Uncle Stupid paid about $20,000 per car for the marginal increase in business this week. News reports state he wants to overpay for even more cars.
Economically speaking, Uncle Stupid would have created a better economic effect if he bought the cars outright and gave them away.
Assume a cost of $15,000 per car
$1,000,000,000 / $15,000 = 66,666 cars.
Add 66,666 to the estimated 202,000 sales that would have occurred anyway and the total for the week exceed the actual total by about 18,666 cars. This alternate approach would have reduced inventories even further, added more to the manufacturer contribution margin, potentially put people back to work sooner or given those working something to do, and maybe spurred additional sales.
July 31st, 2009 at 8:43 am
I’ll have you know BR…That since I’ve officially not watched CNBC for months now (and I’m becoming increasingly tired of Bloomberg as well)…
(Kind of what it must have been listening to Seabiscuit – War Admiral) on a radio…
You…man…are my first link source for getting this data…I appreciate the timeliness in getting it on the wire…
July 31st, 2009 at 8:45 am
@dh
What raised my eyebrows was the “double taxation” aspect of this program…I’m going to have to look into that a little more…
July 31st, 2009 at 8:48 am
My first observation on the GDP numbers are that Treasuries are rallying…
July 31st, 2009 at 8:51 am
BR stated:
An improving, but weak report.
reply:
———–
Not really, YTD GDP is .9% lower due to the revision. Even if expectations were met for the current quarter, YTD GDP would be down .5% or .7%, depending on the expectations you are reading. How is any part of that good? That’s like saying the fire in someone’s hair went out just before they hit the ground from the cliff top. Yes, the lack of fire improved the situation from a certain perspective.
Given the numbers you printed above, all of the GDP increase was due to government spending. (Welfare payments, essentially)
July 31st, 2009 at 8:55 am
if labor is part of GDP, how is it that the GDP isn’t down more considering we have almost 20% unemployment? and along with the mandatory furlough days? and incomes cuts to go with it?
July 31st, 2009 at 9:01 am
BR, I’m not smart enough to track this through, but maybe you can figure it out or pass it along to someone who can.
China is said to be spending like crazy to expand credit in China. Basically, reports seem to say that a Chinese credit bubble is forming because of loans being made to create excess capacity. When their credit bubble explodes, how will that affect their purchases of US debt? I suspect it would cause them to buy less credit and cause UST rates to explode. This would have an adverse downstream effect on the people of the US and, later, the rest of the world.
Comment? Any details to refute an error in an assumption or details to scare the crap out of anyone who reads this?
July 31st, 2009 at 9:01 am
What’s interesting to me was that the IMPORT/EXPORT quotient was a contribution (which was expected), yet the wat in which that came in was unexpected…
Meaning:
Imports decreased (expected)
Exports decreased more than expected (unexpected)
This basically tells you a few things.
- The ROW isn’t consuming either
- The weak dollar didn’t seem to provide much help in that matter
- Our consumption had to be even WEAKER to make that reading the way it was under those auspices
Now factor in 2nd derivatives, such as oil, and to me it paints a picture of incredible stagnation…
July 31st, 2009 at 9:02 am
dh, not sure that cash for clunkers was ever going to do much for car sales. every thing i had heard about said it would be ending about week after it started (not sure but i don’t think it lasted even that long). mainly because most tradeins are worth more than 4500 to begin with (unless its really in bad shape or old) and the dealer can resell the tradein. they can’t resell the clunker it has to be crushed after they get it. could it have been done better? maybe vouchers for those with older cars and really bad gas mileage with a certain income level. not sure that it would have been that much better though. but the impact of cars on the economy isn’t small. and the idea of them buying the car might have worked, but nobody would have supported that
July 31st, 2009 at 9:06 am
@dh
Marc Faber was on an interview on Bloomberg just yesterday saying he figures Chinese GDP to be more in the 3% range instead of the 7-8% “published” numbers…
He attributes that to weakened demand by ROW for Chinese made goods…
Sure it will have an effect on the purchase of US debt going forward, but the Chinese still have to play the game of keeping what they hold from getting routed…
That’s the dance…
What it mostly means to me is that the Government better start realizing quickly that spending trillions in stimulus is going to be very hard to fund…Which will cause other problems…Pick your poisin…
July 31st, 2009 at 9:07 am
CV, not sure the dollar is that weak. because if it was, you would expect all the importer to the US to devalue their currencies ASAP to avoid loses.
and i am not sure who is buying since the consumer (aka workers) certainly have no reason to buy any thing at this point.
if the feds hadn’t pushed money into the economy it would have been much worse
and is stagnation or deflation thats happening?
July 31st, 2009 at 9:12 am
WTF? Bottom line “improving”? More like- less craptacular than 1Q but still pretty craptacular.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:18 am
We seem to be at the point where the smallest lull in our descent is glommed onto as if it would somehow magically alter the outcome of having jumped into the abyss in the first place. Instead of hitting the ground at 200 mph, we’ll now hit it at 198 mph. That’s good!
GDP (receding as it is) is the least of our worries. A more important fact was that reported by BR yesterday: SPX Earnings. Clearly, we are in a new bubble. The psychology of the current level of enthusiasm for investment in stocks — despite the fact that that those stocks have virtually no chance of holding the value invested — parallels the insanity we witnessed during the housing bubble.
A simple question: If not earnings (or capital improvements, or new products/services, or new business paradigms), what is driving the increase in stock prices?
This is the question Madoff’s “clients” should have been asking themselves.
We are witnessing another Ponzi scheme, and as soon as the bottom of the pyramid stops expanding, all hell will break loose.
On a side note, “GDP” is an inappropriate concept once a negative rate of growth has begun. We now have Gross Domestic Loss (GDL).
July 31st, 2009 at 9:28 am
@willid
Dollar not weak?
The DX hit (what was at the time) the lowest reading of the year during the quarter…and it was substantially lower quarter over quarter vs. Q1
July 31st, 2009 at 9:30 am
maybe i’m naive but isn’t less bad a sign that eventually things will continue to get less bad and then eventually good …??? i’m not saying you should try and catch a falling knife but … from what i’ve seen we go through this every recession… and things often get better a lot faster than most people think just like things get a lot worst a lot faster than most people think.
it’s always the ‘end of the world’ and always ‘the worst recession since the great depression’ until people wake up and realize there is no new paradigm… i’m not typically an optimist but is it really that hard to see the light at the end of tunnel???
July 31st, 2009 at 9:30 am
@willid3
“if the feds hadn’t pushed money into the economy it would have been much worse”
—
Yeah – for GS & JPM & overall “poll numbers”…not sure about anything REAL
July 31st, 2009 at 9:32 am
“Better than expected” though………again!! Party on!
July 31st, 2009 at 9:36 am
@mtl
The light is always dimmest the moment before it turns PITCH BLACK…
It’s not that nobody is an optimist, it’s simply that we haven’t faced reality…
We are artificially propping up numbers with dollars we don’t have (and borrowing from tomorrow to pay for)…
Ask yourself…if you had a $10,000 visa balance, car payments, rent or mortgage payments, etc. and you suddenly realized that you lacked the cash flow to pay for them, what then, if an offer came in the mail for a shiny new $20,000 VISA card (which you could write checks off of)…
You’d immediately feel happier right? It gives you “x” more months of cash flow…But then what if your hours get cut back at work…The balances & interest payments keep getting larger, etc.
Get the picture…All we did when we “rolled over” our elected officials in Washington was to “roll over” our credit card balances…
So you tell me when it’s going to get better…
July 31st, 2009 at 9:42 am
mtl Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 9:30 am
maybe i’m naive but isn’t less bad a sign that eventually things will continue to get less bad and then eventually good …???
reply:
———–
In an average world, absolutely. In this world, everything appears to be a spin calculated to separate you from your money. Less bad is used to imply ‘great’ and offered with hope to convince you to give your cash to commissioned financial sales people. It’s used to deceive, not inform. The spin is also insulting and obvious, which makes me angry when I hear it. If it were on the fringes, I would ignore it. Since it has become mainstream, it just makes me want to buy food and put it in the basement since so many are fooled by so obvious a manipulation. Lies become truth. Scamsters become liquidity providers. It’s doublespeak.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:44 am
Let the panic buying continue. Nevermind reality, folks.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:46 am
hobo:
Yup.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:50 am
“cash for clunkers 2″ ought to come out just in time for everyone to buy a worthless FIAT with some worthless fiat…
Imagine that…by the time we get to “cash for clunkers 10″…you’ll be trading in a clunker FIAT to buy a new clunker FIAT, with some clunker fiat currency…
I love the ingenuity of this country!
July 31st, 2009 at 9:53 am
@Mannwich
The reality is that the bulls have been right and the bears have been wrong. None of the bearish bogeymen have turned out to be real: the 20% unemployment number, the double dip, hyperinflation, the “bond vigilantes,” etc… have all proven to have existed only in the paranoid minds of the pessimists.
I don’t put Barry in that camp, but I do note that he’s been saying “It’s bad, but not as bad as I thought it would be…” over and over and over and over again since the President’s policies began taking hold in March.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:55 am
Isn’t the less bad news just a sign of deflation in the horizon. Feudal times here we come.
Just want to ask you guys about the bonuses distributed with TARP money.
CEOs knew they were going to get caught, but had plenty of time to put the money away.
Even if they’re prosecuted, they’ll keep the dough.
There are news that they dropped their shares too.
Do you think they paid themselves before the house burns down knowing the situation is worse than reported.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:01 am
Franklin – I think wise people sold the market yesterday.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:02 am
Whoa!
Did eveyone just see the hammer get put down on futures?
July 31st, 2009 at 10:04 am
@manhattan
The market is not the economy.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:04 am
Thanks Franklin –
I copied your (9:53) so I can refer the link back to you on a later date…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:05 am
“The market is not the economy.”
Yes, that’s why one is not reflecting the other. If it did, S&P won’t be trading at infinity times earnings.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:06 am
…and I’m not talking about the MARKETS, I’m talking to the “lag” effect of what bad economic policy holds forth…
The present numbers are still only a reflection of HOPE
July 31st, 2009 at 10:07 am
@manhattanguy
How do you know that traders didn’t anticipate this robust GDP number? Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:08 am
Interesting…
We just breached yesterdays gap support…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:12 am
Franklin – Markets got ahead of fundamentals. As Barry pointed out, a lot of the benchmark has been lowered to make numbers seem good. I won’t believe it until I see consistency in numbers. I am in the camp of Double dip recession. Remember first time UE claims is still going up. Very few employers are hiring. Markets are propped up to give hope to people and employers. Sorry it won’t work.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:13 am
@franklin411:
>How do you know that traders didn’t anticipate this robust GDP number?
Robust? -1% is NOT robust… Did you not notice the negative sign in front?
HCF
July 31st, 2009 at 10:14 am
@ HCF:
Hey, in la la land… -1% GDP IS robust… dont you know where we are bro???
July 31st, 2009 at 10:14 am
Franklin –
Do you really think there are traders running around the floor with orders reacting to the friggin GDP numbers?
If you have learned ANYTHING over the past months…The market “run-up” is mostly just quant algos calling up stocks to riduculous levels…The money fronted to settle those trades comes from the US taxpayer by way of Lloyd Blankfein & Jamie Dimon who PAID for that priveledge by making huge donations to your boy at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave…
You really don’t think it was $10 checks do you?
The problem is, now that the crisis SEEMS to be abating, they’re just going to have to manufacture another crisis to get people all scared again and make them believe the government is there to solve all their problems…
I’m sure Rahm will come up with one…And there are enough fools around to still believe…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:15 am
frankie:
You ignore cost/debt moving forward. Repayment is deferred. Think of our current situation in terms of an honest balance sheet. I don’t think we’re heading in a less dangerous or less costly or damaging position.
I remember when the spending on the war in Iraq was a bone of contention (wasn’t long ago). Those numbers are now considered quaint when compared to what we’ve spent on the banks and auto manufacturers.
That said, I don’t believe you don’t see this for yourself (what with your teacher’s ken for critical thought, and all), as the deficiencies we face are fairly obvious. You are/have become a shill. A Party man. A deliverer of propaganda. You are a bagboy, sent ’round to . . .
Nevermind.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:16 am
Good bye recession, hello depression. If I’m not mistaken, 4 consecutive negative quarters of GDP marks the latter. Wonder what the 2Q GDP number would have really looked like without USG spending being up 11%? Re: Clunkers, USG just found another $2B to add to the program. Japan and China are you listening?
July 31st, 2009 at 10:18 am
The 2Q estimate is measured from the revised first Q which was revised down .9%, so without that revision GDP would have been off -1.9% greater than the anticipated -1.5%.
Also 2008 was revised down -.7% which seems like a lot for the full year.
These gove numbers are always revised down, we get a sunny headline number which grabs the headlines and then the sad truth dribbles out in downward revisions
July 31st, 2009 at 10:18 am
@I-Man:
LOL… Yeah, I forgot where we are. I’ll be sure to brake for unicorns on the way home…
=)
HCF
July 31st, 2009 at 10:19 am
@Marcus
We’ve established that I don’t care how much borrowing we do. I only care about how much borrowing we do to fund spending on what. For instance, Boeing borrowing to finance massive bonuses for its CEOs = bad borrowing; Boeing borrowing to finance the development of the 787 = smart borrowing.
@HCF
GDP contracted at -5.5% in the prior quarter. This quarter it contracted -1% — 5.5 times better than the prior quarter. And as Peter Boockvar points out, the prospects for a return to growth next quarter are excellent.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/chicago-manufacturing-pmi/
July 31st, 2009 at 10:19 am
Pat G:
Hell, it took TPTB 6 quarters to admit recession.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:22 am
@Pat G
“Preliminary Depression”…Remember, the numbers are just the first estimates…Once they realize the implications, they’re sure to find a way to squeeze it to ZERO to avoid the stigma…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:25 am
@MA
The USG won’t come out and officially declare it a depression although were there, especially after all the bailout money they’ve spent in a pretext to stop us from getting there in the first place.
@cvienne
You’re probably right but we all know better.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:25 am
Looks like we got the 50 period MA and 20 period MA sandwich going on on the SPX 15 min chart…
Wonder which one will win out?
I say if the 20 becomes resistance again and and we break support of the 50, we see 960 again rather quickly.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:28 am
I might add, a move down to 960 from here corresponds rather nicely with a touch of the 20 day SMA on the daily charts…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:30 am
Consumer spending can only go one way with the number of jobs being lost and people running out of benefits & extensions.
I believe the gov and MSM have beenspinning the numbers to goose consumer confidence to slow down consumer savings. Thats how I see it from my grassy knoll
July 31st, 2009 at 10:31 am
@I-Man
I don’t know I-Man
that little dipsy doodle in the SPX, to me, was a seek & destroy for stops…Support came in off a trendline off of last Fridays (965) low…
We may now be in a triangulation between that, and yesterdays high…It’s almost a perfect equilateral…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:34 am
To borrow a reader comment from elsewhere in the blogosphere:
“GDP doesn’t tell me much about whether the economy is structured properly. For instance, if we all borrowed a boatload of money and spent it on domestically-produced flat screens, car leases and Mickey Ds, GDP would flash: great!
But if we stayed out of debt and saved, with such savings being lent to borrowers who only invested in high-IRR-projects, then GDP would flash: danger!”
GDP is a very faulty way to assess the health of the economy, especially when used in isolation. which is what is done all too often. If half the country burned down and we had to rebuild, GDP would be on fire. But what would it really say about our economic health? Especially if we had to borrow yet more money to do so, building debt to yet more dangerous and onerous levels. A loose yet apt analogy I think, is to companies’ operating earnings, not as-reported. And completing ignoring the balance sheet. Absurd.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:38 am
@jc
They were all abuzz about the continuing claims number falling the other day but what they failed to point out (the obvious); was that number’s decline was due to unemployment beneficiaries exhausting their benefits. Now, what do they turn to in order to support themselves? Crime?
July 31st, 2009 at 10:44 am
franklin411 Says:
“Boeing borrowing to finance massive bonuses for its CEOs.”
____________
Boeing? How about the banks? You miss the point.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:50 am
hope you are all sitting down, i bot qid and dxd..
July 31st, 2009 at 10:50 am
“How do you know that traders didn’t anticipate this robust GDP number?”
gee can’t wait until we get to the more robust number of ZERO- good times will be here again-
franklin- sometimes I think you are a put-on- a class project of the comedy club at some University-providing never-ending laughter to the perpetrators
July 31st, 2009 at 10:52 am
Pat G The MSM excels in finding the pearl in the swill,even if the pearl is faux. Gary Shilling sums it up very well how can consumer spending be anything but down with all the lost jobs and increasing consumer savings?
July 31st, 2009 at 10:54 am
@I-Man
FWIW – That little dip down in the SPX this morning created an interesting triangle…
- lower border from Last Friday lows (thru the low printed this AM)
- higher (yesterday’s high thru yesterdays retest)
The “point” of that triangle would expire Monday at 1:30PM…
So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…
If I were a trader, I think I might be inclined to buy that number (because I still think we need to go visit 1008)…and my dates for that are around August 11th or 12th…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:55 am
@Marcus
The bank bonuses are a legacy of the past administration–like Iraq and Afghanistan. They were not part of the President’s agenda.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:55 am
the new Karen = big growling bear?
July 31st, 2009 at 10:55 am
Karen – that’s the right move.
I read on Blogosphere that GDP was really -1.9%? They shoved -.9% into the first qtr. to keep us from freaking out.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:58 am
@franklin411:
>GDP contracted at -5.5% in the prior quarter. This quarter it contracted -1% — 5.5 times better than the prior quarter
Less bad != good
Let’s say you get in a massive car accident and lose 5.5 pints of blood (and somehow don’t die right away). On the way to the hospital, you lose another pint of blood. Is this positive news? NO!
I agree that less bad is better than horrendous, but we need context on everything. The economy as a whole is still going in the negative direction: GDP, home prices, car sales, unemployment. I’m certainly not saying the economy will never recover (because it certainly will), just that the positive spin on not so great numbers is propaganda driven.
The first step to recovery is admitting that we have a problem!
HCF
July 31st, 2009 at 10:59 am
LOL Mistress…
I am sitting down. I should be sitting on my hands… because I said I would sit tight today… but I just took a little bite of SPXU… dont plan on holding it over the weekend either.
Heck, the way my stops are on these day trades, I might only have it for another 5 minutes.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:00 am
>>The reality is that the bulls have been right and the bears have been wrong. None of the bearish bogeymen have turned out to be real: the 20% unemployment number, the double dip, hyperinflation, the “bond vigilantes,” etc… have all proven to have existed only in the paranoid minds of the pessimists<<
Although I think we can call off the 20% unemployment prediction with high certainty, the double dip and hyperinflation is still realistic. We are still not having any signs of robust growth driven by sustainable consumption based on real growth in income for the consumer class.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:00 am
@jc
Agree totally. And to think I thought the Spin-Doctors were a group of musicians.
@manhattanguy
Are you suggesting that our beloved USG would manipulate the GDP number? lol
July 31st, 2009 at 11:04 am
dedude-
by 1980′s metrics- we are already at 17% unemployment-
maybe if that keep manipulating how its factored- we will have full employment at all times- just ignore the vagrants squatting in empty homes
July 31st, 2009 at 11:11 am
Any bets the 2Q GDP gets revised down like the 1Q and 2008? Both revised down a lot more that the 2Q “surprised” to the upside.
After a few Qs of imaginary improving unemployment, home sales and GDP we’ll be swamped by waves of reality
July 31st, 2009 at 11:12 am
@ahab
But it looks “less bad” at 9.5%.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:13 am
I’ve read alot of commentaries this a.m. and most seem have a strong “odor” that this is just another inventory re-balancing type of recession. It is not. This is a post bubble credit contraction and it will last for several more years until the credit binge is flushed out and sustainable consumption and production are again in balance.
P.S. thank god for strong govt spending. Little wonder why all the attention paid to Treasury auctions.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:13 am
@jc
“Any bets the 2Q GDP gets revised down like the 1Q and 2008″
You can bet your home on that.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:13 am
dead hobo @ 8:41
Since when did GS become that oracle of eternal wisdom and knowledge of the future. Should we try to go back and look at some of the predictions that they made about the stock marked 1-2 years ago? You have to wait for the actual monthly sales of July and August to come out before you can give any estimate of the effects of this program.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:14 am
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2009/07/chart-of-day-is_31.html
Numbers, I love them.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:14 am
karen
Just a nibble, or a sizable bite? Just wonderin’
I’m so tempted, but am a bit averse yet. I know, that’s what getting burned by going too early does to you; makes you skittish just when you should be more aggressive.
I thought we’d see much more reaction to the upside by the BTE GDP number. It is doing that sideways thing now though, which has presaged more upside all too many times recently.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:17 am
call me ahab;
I think franklin was talking about people predicting a U3 of 20%, that is at least what I am using when I predict that we will hit 11% this year and top out at 12% next year.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:18 am
onlooker, 1k shares each, so that would be a nibble. i’m more interested it dto at the moment..
July 31st, 2009 at 11:23 am
Heard on BBC Radio, European unemployment reached 9.4 percent in June. They expect 12% in 2010. Worst affected is Spain with 18.1%.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:24 am
I-Man… widen your stops!
my stop for BGZ is 26.70, might hold until Mon-Tue. They’re sure trying to keep this pig of a market elevated on the less bad news is good news! SPX has already printed the HOD for today IMO.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:30 am
going broke-
tough taking investment advice from a dude called “going broke”- LOL
j/k
July 31st, 2009 at 11:32 am
…only 12 pts to 1000 on sp500
July 31st, 2009 at 11:56 am
Sup with gold?
July 31st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Whoa. Someone released the Euro bulls today….screaming. You would have to consider a break of 1.433 a “breakout”….it’s possible the “fourth wave” we’ve been watching actually concluded this morning as this is the sort of “thrust” one normally associates with completing a triangle….very overbot at this moment, and of course it’s all got a weird feel to it, but you have to respect that kind of sharp move higher….
July 31st, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Am I the only one getting a little tired of triangle patterns?
July 31st, 2009 at 12:15 pm
1,000 shares of DTO is a “nibble”?
July 31st, 2009 at 12:16 pm
i said 1k shares each of dxd and qid.. my dto position is a secret… lol
July 31st, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Karen – clearly I know almost nothing about the stock market, and clearly I haven’t had my second cup of coffee, please ignore anything you see from me in the future before 10:00am ;-)
July 31st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Thor, if you ignore anything you see from me after 5, i’ll ignore anything i see from you before 10.. try starbucks french roast beans in a french press, 3/4 cup beans to one cup of coffee.. you’ll wake up fine.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Tresuries are up, $ down? Makes no sense…
July 31st, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Deadhobo, on t-bill rates. My guess would be that if what you mentioned did happen, the U.S. would be the beneficary of a “flight to safety” from everyone around the world, and rates would go down.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:28 pm
I-Man Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Am I the only one getting a little tired of triangle patterns?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Triangle patterns of all shapes and forms are by far the most common set up for markets last few years….contracting and expanding triangles are becoming more and more common ….not sure what’s driving that phenomenon….perhaps it’s the markets way of making things more difficult….
July 31st, 2009 at 12:30 pm
oh my.. i don’t think usd holders like the ramifications of our fed, treasury, and congress… but why are yields down? bond prices up and dollar down.. hate to see what the dollar would look like if bonds sold off as well..
July 31st, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Interesting that the stock market didn’t even flinch up with the drop in the dollar. Divergence? Exhaustion?
Or just delayed reaction yet to come? Bizarro world continues.
But hey, that homebuilder index is on fire today!
July 31st, 2009 at 12:37 pm
The comments on this site used to be useful. Now comments are littered with slap fights between Franklin and his posse of haters. If I were Barry I would ban the lot of you for constantly ruining the comments.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Thanks for the observations AT…
I was wondering if they had a certain prevalence at different wave points… but it sounds like more of a secular thing from the way you put it.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Onlooker from Troy Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Interesting that the stock market didn’t even flinch up with the drop in the dollar. Divergence? Exhaustion?~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The divergence is fascinating indeed!
At some point that phenomenon of DX getting trashed and stocks going up had to diverge….at some point the game had to run its course…in order to screw up the computer based strategies based on the Euro/SP500 correlation….it’ll be interesting to see if this is the beginning of the end to that one….
July 31st, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Dollar collapse is helping rally in Oil. We have a new lows in UUP for the year.
“Interesting that the stock market didn’t even flinch up with the drop in the dollar. Divergence? Exhaustion?”
I believe Distribution started yesterday.
July 31st, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Andy T Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 12:42 pm
.at some point the game had to run its course…in order to screw up the computer based strategies based on the Euro/SP500 correlation….it’ll be interesting to see if this is the beginning of the end to that one….
reply:
————-
I believe you are wrong, sir, about the value of the dollar messing up a HFT algo. I doubt any algo wonders about the dollar. Ever. All these programs want to do is sell to you at the highest price and buy at the lowest price, preferable both sides within a couple of seconds or less.
It’s all momentum driven trading, a fraction of a second at a time. Behavioral fiance is far far far more relevant than economics. Algos are written by programmers, none of which are really very smart outside of programming. Ask one about economics and you will get either a blank face or an angry and dismissive response, I believe. Programmers are highly focused and very controlling people. Economics doesn’t matter. It’s all about the increment.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:01 pm
karen Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 10:50 am
hope you are all sitting down, i bot qid and dxd..
————————————————————-
“You don’t know the power of the dark side!”
Darth Vader
July 31st, 2009 at 1:06 pm
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/07/31/capco-wtf/
Sell signal?
July 31st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Interesting stuff re: liquidity flows:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
It’s clearly a factor, but I’m really not sure how to use it though, as it seems to be very much a coincidental indicator. I suppose if you saw a divergence it would be telling.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:10 pm
MRegan
Just another ponzi-ish set up. With the USG as the ultimate back stop. Moral hazard galore.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Capco is scaring me.. as is the XHB.. how much more stupid can the market get? or is it just a function of too many dollars? i do think we will see further distribution and smart money flight to safety today.. lots of data coming out next week..
July 31st, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Next time you hear Obama speak, see if you can figure out the code word/phrase for “pump the market”.
I’m still waiting to see if SPX takes out the low needed for a reversal in the daily trend. Still looks like a close above the 55ema on the weekly is in the cards (for now). I’ve given up trying to out guess the market and just let the prices tell me where the market wants to go. Eventually the market will realize its error and correct. That day I’ll be “all in” :)
July 31st, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Karen,
Capco is going to be ignored. Uncle Stupid doesn’t want to look like a drooling idiot again for bailing out another insolvent insurer. The true owners will ignore it. Companies like Fidelity will probably continue with the pretense of excess account insurance rather than deal with the truth. GS is just laughing at them. Anyone who is under insured is just going to stand there with wet pants and nobody to care about them.
July 31st, 2009 at 1:42 pm
I guess what I suspect is the deal wrt Capco is that something is unspooling and they are having a hard hiding it. There is probably more “not money” in markets today than there was last summer. I don’t know what to say other than learn how to recognize the real ducks among the decoys.
What happens when the CRE problem reaches critical mass?
I suspect that cotton as an input into paper money will increase in value.
You see buying QID for example makes perfect sense at this juncture, unless you are settling the trade in your own money- that is, you hand plus value to the seller who hands you back something with the appearance of plus value. But any security trading in these markets has already been hollowed out. They are holographic images of a coin whose content has be degraded. Nevermind.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Nice action on GDX today.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDX
July 31st, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Ventana Gold Corp
(Public, TSE:VEN)
July 31st, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Just bailed on SPXU… looks like ole SPX has an afternoon run planned.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:19 pm
@ I-Man
Not sure yet. It’s having a hard time staying above the 13ema.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Also testing the downtrend on the 15 min from yesterdays highs… but I got a sell first, ask later policy going at the moment.
I love your EMA levels, Ra… are those Fibo’s?
July 31st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Nevermind… dumb question.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:34 pm
@ I-Man
LMAO. No problem. But yes. I use 13ema for short term (all scales), 55ema for mid tem and 233ema for long term. But in reality I’d use whatever MA that best fits an index or equity. These are what I use for SPX.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Those bastards! They got me.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:45 pm
deadhobo:
“I believe you are wrong, sir, about the value of the dollar messing up a HFT algo. ”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I wasn’t talking about HFT crap. This HFT stuff is actually just a small piece of all the various blackboxes that exist. What I’m referring to is the perceived correlation between the Euro and the SP500, or commodities and the SP500. There are tons of strategies out there that will try to play the lags that exist between two “seemingly” correlated markets….
i.e.
if over a 60d period there seems to be some sort of correlation that suggests if the Euro rises 1%, the stocks go up a corresponding 2%….then you can bet there is trading program out there built to take advantage of any lags….so if the Euro rises 1% and the SP500 is flat, there would be a trading signal sent to buy the SP500 and sell the Euro to play those lags (very blunt example for the sake of giving a simple example.) These sorts of things continue until all of sudden there is some breakdown in those correlations…that’s when everything goes apeshit the wrong way….i.e. if the correlation does breakdown you get a bunch computer traded models on the completely wrong side of the market. (fat tail events)
July 31st, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Patience I-man, Patience. MMs are running up and down and stop losses.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:46 pm
just looked at uup on the weekly chart.. could mean next week is the turn, imo. dollar up, everything else down..
July 31st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Let me guess…
Now it bounces and runs off of the 50 period MA on the 15 min charts…
I really am going to sit tight now. Logging out of my account. This tape is psycho.
July 31st, 2009 at 2:52 pm
I-Man Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
“I was wondering if they had a certain prevalence at different wave points… but it sounds like more of a secular thing from the way you put it.”
Traditionally, you would see triangles almost only show up in fourth waves or b-waves…but I’ve seen a lot of examples of a-waves that are triangles….i’ve seen c-waves that finished off in diagonal triangles….we’re seeing a lot more “expanding” triangles as well…those are the real whipsaw moves you can experience….where the five waves get progressively bigger….with the e-wave being a real mofo/ripper….
It’s becoming more and more difficult…and I must confess that the SP500 pattern from 667 is very, very unusual looking….
July 31st, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Nice AT… thats what I was looking for.
I’m throwing The Best of Bill Withers on the ipod, kickin back, and just watching this thing for the rest of the session.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:08 pm
btw how many banks bite the dust today?
July 31st, 2009 at 3:08 pm
someone needs to tie me up so i stop buying dto.. lol..
I-man, never listen to me but aren’t you missing some great opportunities here?
July 31st, 2009 at 3:11 pm
karen Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 2:46 pm
just looked at uup on the weekly chart.. could mean next week is the turn, imo. dollar up, everything else down..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Maybe, but when I look at that DX weekly chart I don’t see anything bullish about that candlestick…on the UUP I guess you could conclude it’s an inverted hammer, but the actual Dollar futures contract does not look the same.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:17 pm
I think you folks are all way too bearish … at least in committing funds to the short side at this point. The markets will not fall in August. But rather in the September to December time frame. More precise than that, I cannot get, as my crystal ball has suffered some indignities over the past 24 months and now wears an eyepatch.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:20 pm
andy, true, true.. but look at uso and gld candles for more hints.. i say dollar up next week.. : )
July 31st, 2009 at 3:21 pm
In the interest of full disclosure, THIS is my crystal ball.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I’m not the brave young warrior I once was Mistress… this tape has humbled me.
Obviously, I still see a great short in the SPX, but I wont commit until I see a confirmed reversal pattern on the daily… or better yet, a lower high in.
The cleanest trade I see at the moment is a short in crude… I really like the lower high scenario going on in the USO. So there might be some SCO in my future. But the weekly chart scares me a bit… I could see USO trading up to the mid 40s if this current downtrend gets taken out.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
It’s interesting how this GDP debate has revealed who here at TBP are ideological bears and who are data-driven bears. Some clearly have an “ideological” need to think that the GDP data means that Armageddon is near, although it clearly shows that we are pulling out of the current ressesion (a second dip is still a realistic possibility). I presume those are the same people who have made a wrong bet on the “coming of Armageddon”, and now will go down in flames with that bet because they refuse to be convinced by something as flailing as data. That is the only way to explain the almost hatret they are spewing towards franklin. I mean he may be wrong in his ideology-based interpretation of all the data but he is no worse than all his haters – just spinning it in the opposite direction.
The data-driven bears on the other hand seems to be asking the question we all should ask ourselves every day: “is it possible that my previous position is wrong”.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that the market wants to close the month at 1000 or better? Might have to sell some shorts before the day is over.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm
constant, one thing about the market, you can play it both ways.. ha ha. i am just cheerful right now because the sun is out, it’s 80 and milagro margaritas at the beach are on the menu after the close.. 75 degree salt water is going to feel blissful, as well.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Man, you hardcore TA guys are a hoot. What’s so magical about 55 (or 89 or what ever fibonacci number suits you) other than the fact that it’s part of a numerology (which may or may not even be relevant to describing anything in nature).
OK, let’s be clear on one thing — support/resistance, that part I get (I may even agree that it’s useful) at least there’s a rational explanation. But this fibonacci mumble jumble is just that. There’s no rational reason behind it. Why stop at using it as an EMA indicator? Why not see if you can fit the pattern of up/down days to a fib sequence…makes just as much sense, no? I’m sure if I wanted to I can fit the ball-scratching habits of an average monkey to a fibonacci sequence.
What makes this type of TA so much worse than astrology is that at least rational sentient beings can all agree that the latter is as useful a prognostication tool as the barking patterns of my deceased pet dog. At best this type of TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy; but if that were it’s only usefulness — again I ask, what’s so magical about a fibonacci number?
July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm
@DeDude 3:22 pm
I put your question to my crystal ball, and it replied “ask again later” — clearly stalling for time, as it is as bamboozled as any mere human.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Andy T Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 2:45 pm
What I’m referring to is the perceived correlation between the Euro and the SP500, or commodities and the SP500. There are tons of strategies out there that will try to play the lags that exist between two “seemingly” correlated markets….
reply:
————-
Then, nevermind. I can get behind that kind of programmed trading. You have programs operating in predictable ways, just faster. Nobody really has a clue about what currencies will really do, and the herd can change direction as quickly as a giant school of fish. These are the kind of people that TA can predict well over the short term, until the school of fish pivots.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Franklin gets what he’s looking for. I picture him smiling to himself anticipating all the bile he will receive when he types in things like “robust GDP data” into the comment box. I mean c’mon -1% GDP robust?!?!? Trolls always appear where there’s plenty of others to feed them. Perma bear or not… don’t feed the troll.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:29 pm
i asked the 8 ball how old i was, reply “no way!” i asked the 8 ball spx to 1000? “my sources say no.” loved it.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Maybe so. The CL weekly “looks” like a hangman, but I would much prefer to see a hangman occur after a bigger run into a big peak, not necessarily in this position. Nothing about the daily candlesticks makes me want to be short oil at this point…there’s some kind of freak show stuff going on there…Don’t get me wrong…I hate oil, but I would need to see some sort of five wave bearish move lower show up on the 30-60 minute charts first….it looks like it wants to revisit the highs next week….I hear nothing buy uber-bearish reports from my “fundamental” friends….which means they’re going to get run over some more….
July 31st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
bubba Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm
What makes this type of TA so much worse than astrology is that at least rational sentient beings can all agree that the latter is as useful a prognostication tool as the barking patterns of my deceased pet dog. At best this type of TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy; but if that were it’s only usefulness — again I ask, what’s so magical about a fibonacci number?
reply:
———-
Bubba, my man. On the contrary, your barking dog was probably far more predictable before going on to its celestial reward.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Jesus Christ people can’t you see it?
I’m friggin handicapped today because I’ve spent most of my time between 10:30 and now, picking up a bed frame, driving through a raging thunderstorm (which I thought was going to end up in a tornado)…
…and I’m out in WVA to conclude the day because the power went out at the house in MD…
Now I plug in (on the farm), and see all this dilly dallying about for 3 hours…
Cany anyone see it?
OK…here was the last post I made before picking up the bedframe…
—
@I-Man
FWIW – That little dip down in the SPX this morning created an interesting triangle…
- lower border from Last Friday lows (thru the low printed this AM)
- higher (yesterday’s high thru yesterdays retest)
The “point” of that triangle would expire Monday at 1:30PM…
So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…
If I were a trader, I think I might be inclined to buy that number (because I still think we need to go visit 1008)…and my dates for that are around August 11th or 12th…
—Now as I type this, some dildo tried to spike PAST my triangle (to no avail as of yet as it got sucked right back to the vortex)…
Boy, I sure didn’t miss anything today!
July 31st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Oh karen…
Silver or Reposado?
Dont forget about ole Don Eduardo, he’s got some good agave too. ;)
July 31st, 2009 at 3:31 pm
amenra-
that is my feeling – 1000 at a minimum
“Wes Schott Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 11:32 am
…only 12 pts to 1000 on sp500″
sell into strength and get ready to look out below….
July 31st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
@karen 3:25 pm
You know, I have done that in the past, and have managed to consistently lose money in both directions. We each have to arrive at a methodology that works for their particular inner workings, allowing them to sleep at night and not get wiped out in the first 2 weeks of trading. For most people, that’s going to be CDs. For others, a devotion to Ben Graham and the endless search for values that nobody else sees. For still others, it is in the search for differential values, and therein lies the game for those who trade both ways. Still others can find patterns in all manner of things, and chart their courses accordingly.
But in all cases, the thing that matters the most is timing.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:34 pm
…as for the dollar Treasury divergence…
Piece of cake…
This market is going to hit 1008 on or around 8/11…
…on or around 8/14 there is going to be a massive crash…
can I get back to my corn now? (I also have to mow the lawn)
July 31st, 2009 at 3:35 pm
@bubba
It’s no different than GAAP vs non GAAP, operating earnings vs as-reported-earnings, organic growth vs cost cutting/buy backs, etc. EVERYTHING can be made to fit a position/belief.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:35 pm
I was blinded by the darkness cvienne…
“Aint no sunshine when you’re gone”…
Just playin. Embarassingly enough… I still dont have my 60 min charts set up. I assume thats where your triangle resides.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:37 pm
God, you daytraders. It’s all up until liquidity is removed. Not before. This could go a long time. A long time. Fundamentals don’t matter. TA doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to match the algo chart of the day.
If you’re quick like a bunny you might as well buy something and hold with a very tight stop.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Bloomberg radio said we’re rolling into all time record bank bonuses, just had a restranteur say The $4K bottle of wine is back, another caterer said business just exploded in the past 3 weeks. Happy days are here again! Good news for NYS tax receipts and maybe NYC RE has bottomed. Time to sell and getthefuck outta here
July 31st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Reposado, I-Man. so yummy. market should go red by the close by the way.. just thot i’d throw that out there, for fun..
July 31st, 2009 at 3:40 pm
…oh, I suppose I didn’t explain that…
Treasuries AHEAD of the safety trade (for the 8/14 crash)…
A 10 and 30 year bond auction is coming in two weeks…Some look at todays yields and want to get AHEAD…
July 31st, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Agree red by end of day. It’s getting dark in Manhattan ..maybe a tell tale sign of what is coming to the market in the near future.
I like TBT/TMV..will watch closely for a trade next week.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
I’ll go KISS on todays close:
987.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
oops, I was wrong, SPX hit a new HOD. Still holding into next week though. Since yesterdays morning run-up, it’s still in a decline.
That crystal ball told me the SPX would close below 985…
July 31st, 2009 at 3:45 pm
@I-Man
Go back and read my (10:31) & (10:54) posts…
As soon as I saw that little 10:02 move on the SPX (which I also posted a comment on), I knew that the day was “channeling” from here on out…
Of course, everyone else was still parsing GDP at that moment, so they didn’t notice it…But I was DONE parsing GDP as I posted on THAT at (9:01)
Later, in another thread, BR came out and basically UNDERLINED what I’d said…
Come on man! :-)
July 31st, 2009 at 3:47 pm
bubba Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Man, you hardcore TA guys are a hoot. What’s so magical about 55 (or 89 or what ever fibonacci number suits you) other than the fact that it’s part of a numerology (which may or may not even be relevant to describing anything in nature).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
bubba,
I’m assuming your handle is an accurate description of yourself and your personality. Are you a “bubba?”
I’m not even going to respond to your assertion that the fibonacci sequence is a bunch of mumbo jumbo, because your statements reveal a huge amount of ignorance. I would recommend using “the google” to do a little research on it first and then come back to us to explain why the Fibonacci Sequence and “phi” (1.618-The Golden Ratio) are a bunch of mumbo jumbo….
Here’s some links to get you started….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio
July 31st, 2009 at 3:49 pm
bubba; whereas all that numerology is total BS in the context of thinking it is somehow based on some underlying paterns of reality that will always repeat itself in a future reality, it cannot be dismissed completely. Any computer scientist can make a model that completely predicts the past. If you add in enough “layers of complexity” you will end up with a perfect model of the past. However, those models usually get old very quickly and start departing from reality if you don’t update them constantly. But on Wall Street enough investors go to these mathematical gypsies (to get information from their computational crystal ball) that sales and purchases in the real world gets based on them. That means the real world start bending itself towards this mumbo-jumbo numerology, and now it cannot be ignored ;-)
July 31st, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Dow will end up 1 point, SPX .01 point.
CNBC celebrates and suggests you buy or be priced out forever.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:55 pm
@DeDude
Do you wonder if the binding force in atomic structure and the mathematical configuration of complex molecules are result of just a random amount of “DeDudes” out there individually concluding…
“Hey dude…let’s party”?
July 31st, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Today was a complete mindfuck for day traders.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Oh gosh golly wow…
with 3 minutes to go until the close…
the SPX just touched the BOTTOM part of my aforementioned triangle…(and bounced)
July 31st, 2009 at 3:59 pm
cvienne; no but I don’t use Einstein’s equations to predict if I will have a heart attack next year.
July 31st, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Andy, you are too nice. I’m practicing my “If You Don’t Have Anything Nice to Say, Don’t Say It at All” mantra as well as turning the other cheek.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
AmenRa, is that why my head hurts? i thot it was the bottle of red on an empty stomach..
July 31st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
MARKET CLOSED…4PM
triange in tact…GAP down Monday…970-972 support coming at 1:30PM…YAWN
July 31st, 2009 at 4:03 pm
@AmenRa (3:58)
HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY SAY THAT?
I posted it at 10:31 this morning!
July 31st, 2009 at 4:04 pm
@karen
Been there done that LOL.
Anyone notice the run up as the market settles?
July 31st, 2009 at 4:05 pm
@DeDude
“cvienne; no but I don’t use Einstein’s equations to predict if I will have a heart attack next year.”
You should…at minumum, it allows one to STRESS LESS, therefore minimizing the possibility of said heart attack…:-)
July 31st, 2009 at 4:05 pm
OK forget it…
I’m going to mow the lawn now…
July 31st, 2009 at 4:08 pm
DeDude Says:
July 31st, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Any computer scientist can make a model that completely predicts the past.
reply:
———-
I’d rather just pick up a book or look at wikipedia rather than predict the past. That one is a gimmee.
Agreed that, in normal times, TA creates self fulfilling prophecies. Also believe that any pattern can be adapted to an existing theory about something. TA people will glomm onto it as proof of concept.
Also think that HFT excesses makes this market so unique that there is no past frame of reference that applies.
In a normal world, some numbers do make sense if they provide a graphical interpretation of very current events just as statistical process control provides a frame of reference for normal and abnormal variation.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:09 pm
cvienne; on the other hand a huge waste of time to come up with some false prediction, that time could be used a lot more productively on exercising and living healthy ;-)
July 31st, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Dead hobo; I agree that the short term can be “graphed forward” for many simpler things. But I think it is very hard to do that for something like the S&P500. It is just being influenced by so many things including government intervention, human psychology and other traders trying to profit on their knowledge of what a specific model predicts (and therefore is likely to get the “true believers” to do).
July 31st, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Gotta luv this headline: Dow has best month since 2002. Better luv it cuz you are going to see it and hear it all weekend…
July 31st, 2009 at 4:32 pm
@Amenra
not quite the same. those who tread in this type of “analysis” want to believe that the price action of stocks follows a pattern of numerology (and yes AT I do have a firm grasp of the significance of fib seq.), and that can be used to predict future movements. There’s NO rational basis for this. It’s not the same as basing stock prices using different fundamental metrics. That’s not to say that FA is anymore accurate in market prediction. I once remarked to a freshly minted MBA type whose big on FA (also a big believer in that Efficient Market thingy) proper valuation of any given stock is whatever the last guy paid for it. I got mostly a disdain look.
@AT
Let’s make a deal, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you know what you’re talking about when you post, and you extend to me the same courtesy. That way neither one of us will needlessly appear silly. Yes, I’m well aware of the perceived significance of Fib numbers. I may not entirely agree of the significance attributed to it…but surely I am not ignorant of these magical numbers.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Move over CV… I-Man called the close at 987… which wasnt that hard, I asked the magic 8ball… :)
Seriously tho-
I admire your analysis. I guess I’ll have to play catch up for awhile until I reach your level of greatness.
(that’s “diet snark”)
July 31st, 2009 at 4:43 pm
karen;
I will raise you one; “Dow ends best July in 20 years”
(short this rally at your own peril)
July 31st, 2009 at 4:50 pm
bubba:
I guess for some reason I took the following comments from you as intepretation that you thought it was a bunch of crap:
“But this fibonacci mumble jumble is just that.”
“I’m sure if I wanted to I can fit the ball-scratching habits of an average monkey to a fibonacci sequence.”
“What makes this type of TA so much worse than astrology is that at least rational sentient beings can all agree that the latter is as useful a prognostication tool as the barking patterns of my deceased pet dog. At best this type of TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy; but if that were it’s only usefulness — again I ask, what’s so magical about a fibonacci number?”
These comments seem in contrast to your last comments:
“and yes AT I do have a firm grasp of the significance of fib seq.”
“Yes, I’m well aware of the perceived significance of Fib numbers. I may not entirely agree of the significance attributed to it…but surely I am not ignorant of these magical numbers.”
Your comments earlier suggested incredulity toward the significance of Fib #s and therefore I reached the conclusion you were simply ignorant of the concept. I apologize to you. I might suggest that something that is “perceived” to have significance actually does have significance.
“Let’s make a deal, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you know what you’re talking about when you post, and you extend to me the same courtesy. That way neither one of us will needlessly appear silly. ” — Agreed. Have a great weekend.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Well all I’ll say is this: back on 1/31/08 the SPX had a reversal bar on the monthly 3LB (well before all the hell that broke loose later in the year). Don’t know if means anything but we just had another reversal on the monthly 3LB. Say what you want but this is/was one hell of a bear market rally for this to occur. My 2¢
July 31st, 2009 at 4:53 pm
@Dedude
Exactly my point. If enough traders use a numerology dictated by the farting habits of a south african baboon colony, then that’s a pretty useful prognostication tool. But somehow I don’t think the Fibo folks would like this comparison so much.
July 31st, 2009 at 5:03 pm
@AT
very kind of you AT. rereading my post, I can see how it could have been miscontrued thus. I guess we’ll just agree to disagree on the usefulness of Fibo numbers in market predictions
July 31st, 2009 at 5:16 pm
>> But somehow I don’t think the Fibo folks would like this comparison<<
I know; but today is spit on Fibo day (you know the last Friday of the month), so we shall call them monkey farts and be done with it :-)
Y’all have a great week-end
July 31st, 2009 at 5:40 pm
I-man – seriously – how did you call the close? You were the only one who got it even close – Manhattan, why did you think it would close in the red? I’m curious as to how you all make your calls as I’ve noticed that some people tend to be right more than others . . . .
July 31st, 2009 at 5:41 pm
bubba-
dude- we have these debates regarding the usefulness of TA at the TBP- and your observation-
” a self-fulfilling prophecy”
is something I have alluded to before- but- if everyone’s doing it- maybe it does have some predictive quality- just like a dog with a shock collar knows not to cross a certain line- whether the power is on or not
dedude-
franklin is a rube and deserves all negative feedback directed his way- trust me- there are folks on the TBP that have given him the benefit of the doubt- such as B in T and CNBC Sucks- but he inevitably says something that alienates anyone who might try yo defend him- such as – when he said-
“China is our natural enemy”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/making-money-on-gm-investment/#comment-182916
like I said- a rube- check out the following comments once he relayed that gem
July 31st, 2009 at 5:42 pm
PS – I’m genuinely interesting, not trying to call anyone out or anything . . . .
July 31st, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Genuinely interestED – Whether I’m at all interstING is still open for debate ;-)
July 31st, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Karen, Karen- wherever you are-
did you sell your QID before the closing bell today???
I’m just nosey
July 31st, 2009 at 6:14 pm
@Thor
I can’t speak for I-Man (the call on the close)…and TRUST ME, I ain’t puttin down I-Man no way no how (he’s my brah)…
But I-man made that post at 3:43 this afternoon (17 minutes to close)…
I’m feeling the MIGHTY IGNORED today…for at (10:31) and (10:54) I made trading calls on the EXACT pattern that occurred today…(a triangulation – which I’m not going to re-iterate now – go read my comments and decipher it for yourself…You’ll need charts that show 10 – 15 minute ticks)…
My model was challenged at 3:26 this afternoon (for which I posted a comment at (3;30)…Then it fell back into line…
Furthermore, I extrapolated my thesis into next Monday (1:30PM to be precise)…So it has further to go for everyone to prove me wrong…
Whatever…
I’m no genius…and probably my posts here this afternoon will bring more DISTAIN from TBP populace than anything else…
But they sure would have made somebody some money today!…
This while I was mostly doing errands (not even watching the markets…
Have a good weekend everyone…I know DeDude will because he isn’t bothered with monkey shines like fractals & mathematics…
July 31st, 2009 at 6:16 pm
…actually I extrapolated my thesis thru August 11th, then 14th, if anyone is reading…
But they must not be because the SEEDS for this thesis I’ve been planting for 3 days now…
July 31st, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Thor @ 5:42
dude- we find you interesting- you don’t have to shill for yourself- LOL j/k
July 31st, 2009 at 6:34 pm
Cvienne – sorry I missed your earlier call! I give you props for all your calls though so don’t feel left out. I understand the call at 17 minutes before the close, a couple of other people were making calls though and they were off a bit, was just curious if I-man was using a different system than everyone else.
Ahab – you are too kind!
July 31st, 2009 at 6:42 pm
@Thor
Thanks Thor…
I realize I’m being a whiny baby here…It probably puts people off more than anything else…
I’ll just relish in my own miniscule world…
Nice thunderstorm today (almost tornado)…That always clears the air…There’s till sunlight…gotta go to Autozone to get a trailer hitch rigging for my new truck…Got a boat last week, but it’s stuck there doing nothing at the moment…
July 31st, 2009 at 6:43 pm
I love T-storms – you’ve lived here though Cvienne, you know we don’t have weather in LA :(
July 31st, 2009 at 7:19 pm
OK cvienne; since you are pretty specific on your predictions for the future such as the “need to visit 1008 …dates for that around August 11th or 12th” I will put my money where your mouth is. I normally rebalance on the 18th but sometimes (if strongly nudged) will do it up to a week earlier. So if the visit to 1008 comes on August 10-13 I will rebalance that day. Furthermore, if that move saves me money (S&P ends higher that day than August 18th), I will shock the monkey and refrain from participating in “spit on Fibo Friday” for the next 2 years. If your mouth cost me money I expect you to participate on DeDude and Bubba’s team on next “spit on Fibo Friday”. Deal?
July 31st, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Howdy bredren! (as I see the Mistress aint around… unless she’s lurking half drunk off milagro with her laptop from the beach waiting for the start of the good ole west coast sunset party… but I doubt sand is too good for computers… I know it turned my BB screen to an etch a sketch… but tangent…)
@ CV-
I admit. I did not give your post the time I should have because I assumed you were looking at a 60min chart, which I dont have at “the cube”, I only have the 5, 10, 15, daily, weekly, and monthly. So I brushed it off because I couldnt connect last friday’s low. Thats my answer for why I didnt “trade” it.
Obviously, I got bigger issues with not being able to sit tight in a congested tape.
If peeps aint piping up about how prescient and keen your analytical calls are, its because they are in awe of them… those in the know anyway, I cant speak for bubba. I’m not going to turn a thread into a “CV you are such a badass party” though. I mean that with the utmost respect btw, I’m just shooting straight.
Further, I think sometimes your theories require so much brainwave to wrap around that some people might just overlook them and not really “draw” the conclusions. (pun intended) Trust me, it takes time and effort to fully comprehend the foresight of your work.
Also want you to know that I think your calls ARE quite badass… and if I dont immediately “bite” them, as in the spirit of “biting rhymes”… its only because ultimately, I gotta be looking at my own charts… and drawing my own conclusions, which may even be ignorant in the face of yours, but we all got a path to follow, right? Many trails up the mtn, they all lead to the top.
And off the other thread, you’re more Mad Scientist than Class Clown, fwiw.
@ Thor:
Luck bro. Just thought at that point that the daily action in the tape had “doji” written all over it. Indecision, day trading mind-fuckery, as it were. Frustrating, if you did not recognize the larger pattern at work, which CV pointed out very early. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doji
July 31st, 2009 at 7:33 pm
i-man-
i have to agree re cvienne- saw that same self described remark “class clown”- I don’t think anyone thinks that-
I think you made an apt description- “mad scientist”- not a TA person- so most definitely can’t keep up with cvienne’s observations-
so I read them much as child reads a grown up book- repeating the words- with no idea what the fuck they mean-
but i am trying
July 31st, 2009 at 8:28 pm
@I-Man
Thanks, I’m satisfied…Oh and by the way I’m back from getting my trailer hitch rigging…Don’t have a damn 3/4 inch wrench (stop at 5/8), so I’ll have to get to it tomorrow…
As for calls…
All I have to say is one thing…I’m not trying to be a “badass” here…In fact, I have to give out some serious props to: You, AmenRa, ben22, karen, manhattanguy, and “most definitely” Andy T…
It’s a complex weave of all the insights that I hear from all you guys that I mix into a cocktail (that later becomes a “call”)…
Hell, ben’s the one who ought to get the props so far (because as we speak, he’s dead in the crosshairs of the one call he made – the one I know of – 965 -1k)…
I actually, with respect to that, I had it a little wrong…I identified a lot of the moves around the end of June 1st week in July…but I was really thinking 956 was the top…I was fortunate enough to see the error in may ways early before the craziness…I know you don’t want to revisit that…
I admitted that after 960+ I was in wonderland (and needed a few days to see through the fog – but I’m seeing it a little here)…
But consider this ESPECIALLY YOU DE DUDE…I don’t mind making small “precise” calls within a narrow trading range, to wit…(10:54) this morning…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/comment-page-4/#comment-199133
TEXT – if you’re bored…
The “point” of that triangle would expire Monday at 1:30PM…
So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…
—
Let’s see…um…MERCY ME…the SPX made a LOW today of 982.85 and a HIGH of 993.18…Sorry I couldn’t narrow that down for you a little…
Anyway, anything I say is with the caveat FWIW…
I’m not just pulling these numbers out of my ass…Furthermore, I’m not making any TRADING recommendations, I’m just telling people how I’m seeing the playing field…I trust everyone who reads this blog has enough horse sense to figure out whether or not that means anything to them…
Many, I’m sure, don’t effing care!
July 31st, 2009 at 8:41 pm
@bubba @de dude
Last comment on the subject…
Ask yourself how some farmer like me could publish a call like the above referenced one at (10:54AM)…Meaning I started typing it at 10:48AM…
Answer…technical analysis…
From having done HOMEWORK, I already knew what the main pressure points were…The first pressure point (downside) was hit at 10:06 and the market reacted…
It followed a classic ANDY T 5 wave “elliott” until it reached a peak at 10:45…
So if you understand TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, it “puts you in the ballpark” of what is probably happening…
I suppose if the “Germans had bombed Pearl Harbor” during the sequence (or if Obama had done a press conference telling everyone how he was going to have a beer with Martha Stewart), then the model would have been blown…
…but trust me…THERE’S ALWAYS A PLAN B…
I wonder if Belichick just “wings it” on Sunday?
July 31st, 2009 at 8:43 pm
LOL
July 31st, 2009 at 8:51 pm
I agree… surriously.
There will be a downside breakout from the triangle. But short lived I’m afraid. Just a feeling I get. The charts back it up in the high 960s. It’ll be just enough to get alot of shorts giddy. Then a reversal. You can bet your ass I’ll be out of short positions on the reversal this time.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:02 pm
@cv-
you are a freak on so many fronts
a great life
luv ya man
July 31st, 2009 at 9:07 pm
cvienne-
Belichick doesn’t wing it- he secretly tapes it-
so . . . if I knew what GS was going to do- I could always be a winner-
right?
by the way- prediction- NE has a even record this year- Chicago-strong play off contenders w/ Cutler- Arizona and my man Warner- Super Bowl win-
Warner can throw a fucking football- but- needs to work on his cold weather game
July 31st, 2009 at 9:39 pm
OK cvienne, I’ll bite. Let’s see, you wrote:
“So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…”
This was posted @10:54AM; I’ll be generous and grant you that you started thinking about posting this a good 1/2 hr prior, that brings us to 10:24. Now lets see when did the SPX print the day low of 982.85, oh around 10:10. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d
man, what foresight…you’ve actually predicted an event that HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED! effing genius! and might I add that in that one sentence you’ve left yourself more outs than is theoretically possible with a hand of texas hold’em.
TA types like you suffer from a form of psychological adjustment commonly known as SELECTIVE MEMORY.
“I wonder if Belichick just “wings it” on Sunday?”
no, he cheats! bad example.
July 31st, 2009 at 10:18 pm
@bubba
I made about 20 effing posts today and you STILL don’t know what I’m saying…
First one…IMPORTANT…came at (10.02)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199097
I took MAJOR NOTE of that move out of the corner of my eye…Because I can type and chew gum at the same time…
Between 10:04 and 10:22 I made no less that 4 more posts…3 of them were obviously a waste of time because they were to Franklin (as is, probably, THIS post)…The other was to Pat G…
Then you get my 10:31 post to I-Man…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199125
The “triangulation” I was referring to was the 983 number (a number that I “assumed” anyone looking at a chart could see)…Nevertheless, if they were INCAPABLE of seeing it, I SPELLED IT OUT IN BOLD LETTERS in this post later…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199133
…which was posted at 10:54, but which I started typing a few minutes earlier…
…even at 3:30 (after having spent 3 hours running errands and not even looking at the markets I logged in and read a bunch of rants and raves about the market doing this or that before the close…I posted my “Jesus Christ people” comment…I’m not even in the mood to find it, you go find the fu**er if you want…
—
Do I need to tell you how I cut my grass too?
I’m not even going to waste my time anymore with this shit…
July 31st, 2009 at 10:19 pm
bubba-
you absolutely need to apologize to cvienne
what you miss is that it held true- he made his prediction and- and he said that the SPX would bounce around 983- 993
he’s not wrong- how could he know that the 982 would be the low- no matter what time earlier in the day it occurred- for example-
if the spx was @ 995 at 11:00- could you say that it was the low of the day- last I checked- it can still go down further-
right???
and as you must know- it topped around 993- around 3:00 to 4:00- so he pegged it from what I can see-
right???
July 31st, 2009 at 10:42 pm
I guess what it amounts to is…
“We sittin’ here talking ’bout PRACTICE”…(not the game)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I
July 31st, 2009 at 10:55 pm
funny shit cvienne-
it still makes me cringe every time I see Namath drunk on his ass coming on to that female reporter- sad indeed-
saw that live by the way- unbearable to watch
July 31st, 2009 at 10:59 pm
@ahab
Oh…sorry my man…
I ‘more than’ kinda agree with you on the Chicago Bears chances this year…
Let me do my PRE-PRESEASON PICKS (please allow me at least ONE revision before the season kicks off to fall in line with the likes of bubba’s timeframe)…
AFC EAST – Patriots
AFC NORTH – Steelers
AFC SOUTH – Titans
AFC WEST – Chargers
AFC WILD CARD – Jets, Dolphins
NFC EAST – Eagles
NFC NORTH – Bears
NFC SOUTH – Falcons
NFC WEST – 49ers
NFC WILD CARD – Cowboys, Saints
SUPERBOWL – Bears – Patriots
Note: I’m a RAVENS fan…
July 31st, 2009 at 11:03 pm
@cvienne
“I’m not even going to waste my time anymore with this shit…”
this much we can agree on. good luck to you sir, but I don’t suppose you’d need it.
@ahab
hey, believe what you want to believe.
@ all you TA aficionados
Let’s assume, for argument sake that among the millions of market participants, AT and cvienne were the only two that execute their trades base on the “golden ratio rule”, would the overall price action follow fibonacci numerology?
and if your answer is yes, what’s the rational basis for this? simple question folks.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:31 pm
well, I travel all day and I see that things are getting just a little heated at TBP. I missed all the action today but a quick few thoughts on fib. #’s.
Fib #’s aren’t perfect in predicting the stock market, nothing is, but certainly extremely important, to discount them would be a mistake imho. I also think it’s wrong to say “if everyone is using them” those that do say that are skeptical so they probably aren’t using it to make investment choices, therefore, everyone isn’t using it. If everyone were in fact using it, I doubt we would continue to see it continue to show up as much as it does.
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
George Bernand Shaw
We are surrounded by phi and the Fibonacci sequence everywhere from the breeding patterns of rabbits, family trees of bees, phyllotaxis, and logarithmic sprials which can be seen in sunflowers, seashells, whirlpools, hurricanes and giant spiral galaxies among other things. Even the pattern that a peregrine falcon takes to hunt prey follows a logarithmic spiral.
In looking at the Fibonacci sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987…. u can see the relation to phi
1/1 = 1.000000
2/1 = 2.000000
3/2 = 1.500000
5/3 = 1.6666666
fast forward
233/144 = 1.618056
377/233 = 1.618026
610/377 = 1.618037
987/610 = 1.618033
As you go farther and farther down the sequence, the ratio of two successive fibonacci numbers oscillates about and comes closer and cloer to the Golden Ratio.
If you believe that markets are driven by social mood, as I do, then I find both the fibo #’s and phi more than relevant to the stock market. If so many things in nature, and the universe, can reveal this sequence why would we assume social mood would not generally follow these patterns. Anyone following these numbers on a regular basis will find that they show up too often to be written off.
This is not directed at anyone in particular, just my thoughts on it, that’s it. I could write for days about phi, I have had an obsession with it for some time.
In closing:
All the thoughts of rabbits are rabbits.
July 31st, 2009 at 11:31 pm
Actually –
(Not that anyone is listening at this point)…
But I just had a chance to test the “wind variables” (which might alter the previous MONDAY 1:30 call)…
New dynamics in play…(higher degree of variability)
The TIME factor has now been bumped forward to Tuesday at 11:00AM…
Most likely call – (still 972 – probably more like 971 and change)
2nd most likely…same time, 962…
3rd most likely…976
July 31st, 2009 at 11:35 pm
@ben
Thanks ben…
NOT because I think you’re trying to agree with me…I hold no illusions thereof…
Simply…
Just for pointing out (publishing) the mathematics that you just did…If it happened to kindle interest in anyone, I suggest they follow that instinct…
July 31st, 2009 at 11:43 pm
cvienne-
49ers will not win the NFC West-
first off- who is the QB going to be???- and don’t lay all all your hopes on Singletary as head coach- I see indecision and frequent QB changes on the horizon-
as far as the Cardinals- Warner is injured- but probably able to play and Leinart is back up- they are a lock for the West
July 31st, 2009 at 11:49 pm
@cvienne,
I can agree with both you and bubba. At the end of the day shouldn’t the question about fibo in the markets be less about whether or not it works and more about why it happens? That’s the interesting part for me.
I think he is trying to just say that he’d prefer other ways to figure out an appropriate investment strategy. Fine, I don’t see anything wrong with that, nor do I find a thing wrong with people that want to try to plot price points on charts to help determine support or resistance using fibo’s.
For me, I think fibo and phi are important.
To each his own.
Besides, people have argued about this in relation to the market for decades. I find the arguments between creationists and evolutionists on this subject far more interesting. Take this quote found in Mysterium Cosmographicum, from Kepler, a more than brilliant man imho, and one that added much to the discussion on The Golden Ratio:
“the mathematical things are the causes of the physical because God from the beginning of time carried within himself in simple and divine abstraction the mathematical objets as prototypes for the materially planned quantities.”
July 31st, 2009 at 11:49 pm
what’s the matter guys, you don’t like my Oakland Raiders?
July 31st, 2009 at 11:56 pm
can i even show my face here?! I-Man, i am not drunk on Milagro now. switched to a cab when the sun ducked behind the clouds.
ahab, i posted on another thread that i did not sell, only in the money a few hundred and it was just a starter position anyway..
August 1st, 2009 at 12:03 am
@Ben
You are a voice of calm reason (except with regards to the RAIDERS)…Actually, I took you for an EAGLES fan…
@Ahab
You’re probably right about the Cardinals…That was the ONE division that I was trying to be a little “speculative” with my pick…I’ll tell you though…I’m going to stick by it for now…I believe in Mike Singletary…Don’t ARI & SF play in the 1st week?
@karen
Thank god someone with CLASS has entered this thread…Actually most have some degree of class, but I am so clearly without, it requires an exceptionally potent pH on the other side of the litmus to help register the balance…
August 1st, 2009 at 12:07 am
@ben
Ben – and in the end this is getting all blown out of proportion…It’s not like I have a room full of lit candles that I retire to which worships at the altar of FIBO…
It’s simply something I use to keep me focused on larger trends (and – as the case was today – tune out NOISE – which I’d expressed yesterday that I thought the stupid ass preliminary GDP number was going to be)…
August 1st, 2009 at 12:07 am
“All the thoughts of rabbits are rabbits.”
HA! That’s funny, and I’m not even sure why. :)
Such simple and innocent creatures, I guess. And there’s that famous bunny love too.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:12 am
@ben
re: NOISE
I mean ben…I was exactly the THIRD poster on the very thread you are reading here…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199061
I swear…I have a PHOBIA nowadays about turning on the TV and listening to business news channels…(CNBC & now even Bloomberg)…I can’t do it…
Listening to ANY TV commentator on any business news subject clouds my head…
August 1st, 2009 at 12:19 am
Karen-
thanks for posting- always welcome to jump in no matter the subject at hand-
was just wondering if QID was a quick in and out or something you feel comfortable holding a few days-
thanks for putting my frenzied mind at ease
August 1st, 2009 at 12:19 am
@cvienne,
@Ben
You are a voice of calm reason
Lol, my wife might disagree. I can have an awful temper, especially during Monopoly. Also, franklin bothers the hell out of me for some reason and I’m not always calm in response to him, no matter how hard I try to just ignore his crap. When it comes to the markets though, I try to stay cool at all times and I’m pretty good with that at least.
In any event, I appreciate your posts man, like I-man, not trying to turn this into a cvienne love fest but you have made some real nice calls. None of us are always right. My target has been hit,, little bit of skill, lot of luck. In the short term I’m just as up in the air as anybody else at this moment, but like Karen, I’ve been buying shorts all week and slowly adding to my dollar position. Uno was all over MCO puts, that trade has been money thus far, but I’m not having any success with the others, namely FXP on which I’m feeling that steel I-man and lefty have been talking about. While I’m not sure where we go, with all the stuff I look at what I see is that the probability is not way on my side to make money on the long side, couple that with the seasonality that we will face in Sept/Oct period and I’m o.k. starting to bite on some shorts here while holding some cash and one long that I added this week, that’s all I’ve got left on the long side. I like trying to identify bigger trends rather than daily movements, I’m not a day trader and prefer to hold positions for at least a few months at a time unless I’m stopped out or just need to take profits. I’m watching every day, just not trading, though lately, like a lot of people, I’ve been more active.
As for the Raiders. My dad liked them when I was a kid so I liked what he liked. I really miss watching the games with him. When I was in the sixth grade I had the coolest Raiders jacket ever, which I got for a Christmas present, at least I thought it was the coolest. I route for Philly since I’m so close now but I’ll always be a Raiders fan first and a PSU fan second. Also, it’s hard to route for McNabb, you’d think after all these years in the league he could calm himself down before a game.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:23 am
sorry Karen, I didn’t mean to say you were buying shorts all week,but that you were buying them, and so am I, though, I probably paid more for some of mine.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:25 am
you fellows are chatty tonight.. where are the GFs, the wives, the whatevs? lol
August 1st, 2009 at 12:27 am
karen
my wife is in bed,we had a nice delayed flight today from philly to cleveland, as a result, we made it to cleveland just in time to see our connector leaving for erie, without us on it of course. thanks philly airport, always a pleasure.
it’s been a long day, but I hardly ever sleep, so this is nothing new.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:34 am
and in the end this is getting all blown out of proportion…It’s not like I have a room full of lit candles that I retire to which worships at the altar of FIBO…
LOL. Yes you do, admit it. You spiral some of the herbs from your garden around your body and chant don’t you.
j/k
August 1st, 2009 at 12:35 am
b22-
McNabb is on or he’s off- end of story-
that TO feud- what a show- and then the TO love fest for Romo- another show-
must have been McNabb and TO were butting heads back at Philly- but the way OT bagged him- shit- that was low-
Philly fans suck by the way
August 1st, 2009 at 12:36 am
@ben
I’m not bustin’ on you for the Raiders…
I was actually VERY MUCH a Raider fan for the few years they were in Los Angeles…(cause I lived there from ’82 to about ’93)…
Actually…cvienne & the Raiders share some common characteristics…We’re both ARROGANT CLOWNS & have a certain MYSTIQUE (“Just win baby!)…
Actually ben…on a kinda serious note…I want to bring your attention to something (that I don’t really want to publish here online so much – nothing illegal or immoral – just something I think you’d be interested in…actually I’M SURE you’d be interested in)…You need to know this before August 14th…Is there an indiscreet way I could pass this info to you?…
@karen
No GF’s…just the tractor & the wine
August 1st, 2009 at 12:37 am
listen to this! my favorite song! http://perezhilton.com/2009-07-31-the-kings-of-leons-unusual-success-story
it’s better on the original recording “only by the night”
the follow up song is “be somebody” but every song on the recording is fantastic.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:40 am
@ben
“LOL. Yes you do, admit it. You spiral some of the herbs from your garden around your body and chant don’t you. j/k”
:-) Come on Man!
August 1st, 2009 at 12:41 am
cvienne,
I’m getting ready to change this addy anyway so I suppose no harm in having you send it here or posting here. Don’t ask, I literally set this e-mail up in the 10th grade when I was listening to a lot of DMB and just never changed it.
seekupanemotion@yahoo.com
August 1st, 2009 at 12:43 am
karen,
I’ve seen KOL in concert 3 times. Unfortunately the last one showed me that now that Kings are mainstream too many tools go to the shows. They are awesome live, been a big fan for years.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:45 am
@ahab
Are you a Redskins fan? Gotta be :-) (hate for Philly)
…but remember, ben’s a RAIDER fan…(but you can HATE him for the ’83 Superbowl…what was it? 32-9? I’m not even “clusty’n” I’m trying to dredge it from memory)…
Actually I was the biggest Redskin fan you could imagine growing up…(Sonny, Billy, Larry Brown, Charley Taylor, Roy J. ,Chris Hanburger, Pat Fischer, et al)…The feeling left me when Joe Gibbs retired the first time…and Dan Snyder bothers me…
August 1st, 2009 at 12:46 am
I’d highly recommend
because of the times and aha shake heartbreak if you’ve only got the new one.
the first major album was good but the second and third above are on a different level.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:47 am
@ben
OK – I’m going to e-mail you a link to something I think you’ll be somewhat fascinated by…
FWIW
August 1st, 2009 at 12:49 am
cvienne,
I’ll keep an eye out for it.
I’m out now peeps. Good luck to everyone next week, I’m here in Erie for a few days then off to Chicago for some more fun.
August 1st, 2009 at 12:57 am
@ben
I just sent it…
August 1st, 2009 at 12:59 am
cvienne-
I’ve been to FedEx field a time or two- tough to follow the Redskins last several years- Snyder has ADHD and can’t keep the same head coach in place for a year or two- and I knew that Gibbs part II would not end well-
you and I may differ on this- but I think he should have toughed it out with good ol’ Norv- fired after a winning season no less-for Shottenheimer who lasted a year- who lost 6 straight games- who was subsequently fired for- Spurrier- who was a colossal joke-
it’s been tough-
big fan of Kurt Warner since the Rams days- so latched on to his career and have followed him ever since- last year was the best I could have hoped for- even after the heartbreak loss to Pittsburgh
outside of that- big on Chicago- that’s where my family’s from- Cutler should work out well there
August 1st, 2009 at 1:03 am
@ahab
The Bears are my pre-season pick to go to the Superbowl for the NFC…
August 1st, 2009 at 1:26 am
ben ben ben ben ben
fibonacci #s, while having very interesting MATHEMATICAL properties, are alas overated and has very little real verifiable application outside of the mathematical realm. Ditto for the so called golden ratio. see this for starter:
http://www.amazon.com/Golden-Ratio-Worlds-Astonishing-Number/dp/0767908163
And those breeding rabbits….it was a “thought experiment” to illustrate the MATHEMATICAL PROPERTIES of the fibonacci sequence.
as for the so called “arguments” between creationists and evolutionists…there’s really no argument to speak…one is base on blind faith the other on a series of testable and proven hypothesis
good night
August 1st, 2009 at 1:31 am
I’ve seen the golden ratio pop up in writings by M.A. I’m more into trying to figure out the trend. Anything that I believe can give me an early warning is what I use. Now can someone explain trading using VWAP?
August 1st, 2009 at 8:25 am
bubba,
I’d suggest you take your own advice, believe what you want to believe and leave it at that.
August 1st, 2009 at 8:30 am
oh and bubba,
in that book you suggest, which I have owned for a few years, starting on page 96 livio introduces the fibo sequence with the rabbit breeding example, and funny you rip the creationist debate as well seeing as how he has also written a book called:
Is God A Mathematician?
did you actually read that book?
August 1st, 2009 at 10:02 am
okie, well that clears it up for me. it would make sense that you’re also into creationism. there’s no point “arguing” any further.
but can we at least agree that rabbits do not breed according to the fibonacci sequence? no living creature for that matter does this. think about it for a second. It was Fibonacci’s THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. geez.
August 1st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Why the hostility bubba? What does it matter to you? geez
August 1st, 2009 at 1:39 pm
@OT
yeah, ok I’m the bad guy for trying to inject some rationality into a “debate”
August 1st, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Hail to the redskins, hail victory, braves on the warpath… Fight, for old DC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1zJeGf-gpc
August 1st, 2009 at 2:30 pm
bubba,
we’ll just continue to go our seperate ways how about, like I said above, use whatever works for you in the markets, if it’s not TA, fine.
I’d suggest in the future when you are trying to prove a point, you don’t link to a book that goes against what you are trying to tell us or to use an author that does not agree with your argument. You never read that book did you? It helps explain the back tracking you did with AT above.
August 29th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
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