Official GDP release:

“Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009, (that is, from the first quarter to the second), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 6.4 percent.

The decrease in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased . . .

The much smaller decrease in real GDP in the second quarter than in the first primarily reflected much smaller decreases in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in private inventory
investment, upturns in federal government spending and in state and local government spending, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a much smaller decrease in imports and a downturn in PCE.”

A few other items:

-Federal Spending up a huge 11%;

-Real personal consumption expenditures decreased 1.2%;

-Smaller decreases were seen in business investment, exports and inventories;

-This is the first time we have had 4 consecutive negative quarters of GDP since record keeping began in 1947;

-Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 8.9%;

-Last Quarter’s GDP was revised down from negative 5.5% to negative 6.4%;

Peter Boockvar notes that GDP fell more than expected as the deflator rose just .2% (vs expectations of a gain of 1%). Had the deflator been in line, REAL GDP would have fallen 1.8%.

Bottomline: An improving, but weak report.

>

Source:
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2009 (Advance Estimate)
BEA, JULY 31, 2009

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Category: Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

241 Responses to “Advance GDP = -1.0%”

  1. dead hobo says:

    Karen,

    Capco is going to be ignored. Uncle Stupid doesn’t want to look like a drooling idiot again for bailing out another insolvent insurer. The true owners will ignore it. Companies like Fidelity will probably continue with the pretense of excess account insurance rather than deal with the truth. GS is just laughing at them. Anyone who is under insured is just going to stand there with wet pants and nobody to care about them.

  2. MRegan says:

    I guess what I suspect is the deal wrt Capco is that something is unspooling and they are having a hard hiding it. There is probably more “not money” in markets today than there was last summer. I don’t know what to say other than learn how to recognize the real ducks among the decoys.
    What happens when the CRE problem reaches critical mass?
    I suspect that cotton as an input into paper money will increase in value.

    You see buying QID for example makes perfect sense at this juncture, unless you are settling the trade in your own money- that is, you hand plus value to the seller who hands you back something with the appearance of plus value. But any security trading in these markets has already been hollowed out. They are holographic images of a coin whose content has be degraded. Nevermind.

  3. Christopher says:

    Nice action on GDX today.
    http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDX

  4. MRegan says:

    Ventana Gold Corp
    (Public, TSE:VEN)

  5. I-Man says:

    Just bailed on SPXU… looks like ole SPX has an afternoon run planned.

  6. AmenRa says:

    @ I-Man

    Not sure yet. It’s having a hard time staying above the 13ema.

  7. I-Man says:

    Also testing the downtrend on the 15 min from yesterdays highs… but I got a sell first, ask later policy going at the moment.

    I love your EMA levels, Ra… are those Fibo’s?

  8. I-Man says:

    Nevermind… dumb question.

  9. AmenRa says:

    @ I-Man

    LMAO. No problem. But yes. I use 13ema for short term (all scales), 55ema for mid tem and 233ema for long term. But in reality I’d use whatever MA that best fits an index or equity. These are what I use for SPX.

  10. I-Man says:

    Those bastards! They got me.

  11. Andy T says:

    deadhobo:

    “I believe you are wrong, sir, about the value of the dollar messing up a HFT algo. ”
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I wasn’t talking about HFT crap. This HFT stuff is actually just a small piece of all the various blackboxes that exist. What I’m referring to is the perceived correlation between the Euro and the SP500, or commodities and the SP500. There are tons of strategies out there that will try to play the lags that exist between two “seemingly” correlated markets….

    i.e.

    if over a 60d period there seems to be some sort of correlation that suggests if the Euro rises 1%, the stocks go up a corresponding 2%….then you can bet there is trading program out there built to take advantage of any lags….so if the Euro rises 1% and the SP500 is flat, there would be a trading signal sent to buy the SP500 and sell the Euro to play those lags (very blunt example for the sake of giving a simple example.) These sorts of things continue until all of sudden there is some breakdown in those correlations…that’s when everything goes apeshit the wrong way….i.e. if the correlation does breakdown you get a bunch computer traded models on the completely wrong side of the market. (fat tail events)

  12. manhattanguy says:

    Patience I-man, Patience. MMs are running up and down and stop losses.

  13. karen says:

    just looked at uup on the weekly chart.. could mean next week is the turn, imo. dollar up, everything else down..

  14. I-Man says:

    Let me guess…

    Now it bounces and runs off of the 50 period MA on the 15 min charts…

    I really am going to sit tight now. Logging out of my account. This tape is psycho.

  15. Andy T says:

    I-Man Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    “I was wondering if they had a certain prevalence at different wave points… but it sounds like more of a secular thing from the way you put it.”

    Traditionally, you would see triangles almost only show up in fourth waves or b-waves…but I’ve seen a lot of examples of a-waves that are triangles….i’ve seen c-waves that finished off in diagonal triangles….we’re seeing a lot more “expanding” triangles as well…those are the real whipsaw moves you can experience….where the five waves get progressively bigger….with the e-wave being a real mofo/ripper….

    It’s becoming more and more difficult…and I must confess that the SP500 pattern from 667 is very, very unusual looking….

  16. I-Man says:

    Nice AT… thats what I was looking for.

    I’m throwing The Best of Bill Withers on the ipod, kickin back, and just watching this thing for the rest of the session.

  17. AmenRa says:

    btw how many banks bite the dust today?

  18. karen says:

    someone needs to tie me up so i stop buying dto.. lol..

    I-man, never listen to me but aren’t you missing some great opportunities here?

  19. Andy T says:

    karen Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 2:46 pm
    just looked at uup on the weekly chart.. could mean next week is the turn, imo. dollar up, everything else down..
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Maybe, but when I look at that DX weekly chart I don’t see anything bullish about that candlestick…on the UUP I guess you could conclude it’s an inverted hammer, but the actual Dollar futures contract does not look the same.

  20. constantnormal says:

    I think you folks are all way too bearish … at least in committing funds to the short side at this point. The markets will not fall in August. But rather in the September to December time frame. More precise than that, I cannot get, as my crystal ball has suffered some indignities over the past 24 months and now wears an eyepatch.

  21. karen says:

    andy, true, true.. but look at uso and gld candles for more hints.. i say dollar up next week.. : )

  22. constantnormal says:

    In the interest of full disclosure, THIS is my crystal ball.

  23. I-Man says:

    I’m not the brave young warrior I once was Mistress… this tape has humbled me.

    Obviously, I still see a great short in the SPX, but I wont commit until I see a confirmed reversal pattern on the daily… or better yet, a lower high in.

    The cleanest trade I see at the moment is a short in crude… I really like the lower high scenario going on in the USO. So there might be some SCO in my future. But the weekly chart scares me a bit… I could see USO trading up to the mid 40s if this current downtrend gets taken out.

  24. DeDude says:

    It’s interesting how this GDP debate has revealed who here at TBP are ideological bears and who are data-driven bears. Some clearly have an “ideological” need to think that the GDP data means that Armageddon is near, although it clearly shows that we are pulling out of the current ressesion (a second dip is still a realistic possibility). I presume those are the same people who have made a wrong bet on the “coming of Armageddon”, and now will go down in flames with that bet because they refuse to be convinced by something as flailing as data. That is the only way to explain the almost hatret they are spewing towards franklin. I mean he may be wrong in his ideology-based interpretation of all the data but he is no worse than all his haters – just spinning it in the opposite direction.

    The data-driven bears on the other hand seems to be asking the question we all should ask ourselves every day: “is it possible that my previous position is wrong”.

  25. AmenRa says:

    Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that the market wants to close the month at 1000 or better? Might have to sell some shorts before the day is over.

  26. karen says:

    constant, one thing about the market, you can play it both ways.. ha ha. i am just cheerful right now because the sun is out, it’s 80 and milagro margaritas at the beach are on the menu after the close.. 75 degree salt water is going to feel blissful, as well.

  27. bubba says:

    Man, you hardcore TA guys are a hoot. What’s so magical about 55 (or 89 or what ever fibonacci number suits you) other than the fact that it’s part of a numerology (which may or may not even be relevant to describing anything in nature).

    OK, let’s be clear on one thing — support/resistance, that part I get (I may even agree that it’s useful) at least there’s a rational explanation. But this fibonacci mumble jumble is just that. There’s no rational reason behind it. Why stop at using it as an EMA indicator? Why not see if you can fit the pattern of up/down days to a fib sequence…makes just as much sense, no? I’m sure if I wanted to I can fit the ball-scratching habits of an average monkey to a fibonacci sequence.

    What makes this type of TA so much worse than astrology is that at least rational sentient beings can all agree that the latter is as useful a prognostication tool as the barking patterns of my deceased pet dog. At best this type of TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy; but if that were it’s only usefulness — again I ask, what’s so magical about a fibonacci number?

  28. constantnormal says:

    @DeDude 3:22 pm

    I put your question to my crystal ball, and it replied “ask again later” — clearly stalling for time, as it is as bamboozled as any mere human.

  29. dead hobo says:

    Andy T Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    What I’m referring to is the perceived correlation between the Euro and the SP500, or commodities and the SP500. There are tons of strategies out there that will try to play the lags that exist between two “seemingly” correlated markets….

    reply:
    ————-
    Then, nevermind. I can get behind that kind of programmed trading. You have programs operating in predictable ways, just faster. Nobody really has a clue about what currencies will really do, and the herd can change direction as quickly as a giant school of fish. These are the kind of people that TA can predict well over the short term, until the school of fish pivots.

  30. Thatguy says:

    Franklin gets what he’s looking for. I picture him smiling to himself anticipating all the bile he will receive when he types in things like “robust GDP data” into the comment box. I mean c’mon -1% GDP robust?!?!? Trolls always appear where there’s plenty of others to feed them. Perma bear or not… don’t feed the troll.

  31. karen says:

    i asked the 8 ball how old i was, reply “no way!” i asked the 8 ball spx to 1000? “my sources say no.” loved it.

  32. Andy T says:

    Maybe so. The CL weekly “looks” like a hangman, but I would much prefer to see a hangman occur after a bigger run into a big peak, not necessarily in this position. Nothing about the daily candlesticks makes me want to be short oil at this point…there’s some kind of freak show stuff going on there…Don’t get me wrong…I hate oil, but I would need to see some sort of five wave bearish move lower show up on the 30-60 minute charts first….it looks like it wants to revisit the highs next week….I hear nothing buy uber-bearish reports from my “fundamental” friends….which means they’re going to get run over some more….

  33. dead hobo says:

    bubba Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    What makes this type of TA so much worse than astrology is that at least rational sentient beings can all agree that the latter is as useful a prognostication tool as the barking patterns of my deceased pet dog. At best this type of TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy; but if that were it’s only usefulness — again I ask, what’s so magical about a fibonacci number?

    reply:
    ———-
    Bubba, my man. On the contrary, your barking dog was probably far more predictable before going on to its celestial reward.

  34. cvienne says:

    Jesus Christ people can’t you see it?

    I’m friggin handicapped today because I’ve spent most of my time between 10:30 and now, picking up a bed frame, driving through a raging thunderstorm (which I thought was going to end up in a tornado)…

    …and I’m out in WVA to conclude the day because the power went out at the house in MD…

    Now I plug in (on the farm), and see all this dilly dallying about for 3 hours…

    Cany anyone see it?

    OK…here was the last post I made before picking up the bedframe…

    @I-Man

    FWIW – That little dip down in the SPX this morning created an interesting triangle…

    - lower border from Last Friday lows (thru the low printed this AM)
    - higher (yesterday’s high thru yesterdays retest)

    The “point” of that triangle would expire Monday at 1:30PM…

    So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…

    If I were a trader, I think I might be inclined to buy that number (because I still think we need to go visit 1008)…and my dates for that are around August 11th or 12th…

    —Now as I type this, some dildo tried to spike PAST my triangle (to no avail as of yet as it got sucked right back to the vortex)…

    Boy, I sure didn’t miss anything today!

  35. I-Man says:

    Oh karen…

    Silver or Reposado?

    Dont forget about ole Don Eduardo, he’s got some good agave too. ;)

  36. Wes Schott says:

    amenra-

    that is my feeling – 1000 at a minimum

    “Wes Schott Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 11:32 am

    …only 12 pts to 1000 on sp500″

    sell into strength and get ready to look out below….

  37. constantnormal says:

    @karen 3:25 pm

    You know, I have done that in the past, and have managed to consistently lose money in both directions. We each have to arrive at a methodology that works for their particular inner workings, allowing them to sleep at night and not get wiped out in the first 2 weeks of trading. For most people, that’s going to be CDs. For others, a devotion to Ben Graham and the endless search for values that nobody else sees. For still others, it is in the search for differential values, and therein lies the game for those who trade both ways. Still others can find patterns in all manner of things, and chart their courses accordingly.

    But in all cases, the thing that matters the most is timing.

  38. cvienne says:

    …as for the dollar Treasury divergence…

    Piece of cake…

    This market is going to hit 1008 on or around 8/11…

    …on or around 8/14 there is going to be a massive crash…

    can I get back to my corn now? (I also have to mow the lawn)

  39. AmenRa says:

    @bubba

    It’s no different than GAAP vs non GAAP, operating earnings vs as-reported-earnings, organic growth vs cost cutting/buy backs, etc. EVERYTHING can be made to fit a position/belief.

  40. I-Man says:

    I was blinded by the darkness cvienne…

    “Aint no sunshine when you’re gone”…

    Just playin. Embarassingly enough… I still dont have my 60 min charts set up. I assume thats where your triangle resides.

  41. dead hobo says:

    God, you daytraders. It’s all up until liquidity is removed. Not before. This could go a long time. A long time. Fundamentals don’t matter. TA doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to match the algo chart of the day.

    If you’re quick like a bunny you might as well buy something and hold with a very tight stop.

  42. jc says:

    Bloomberg radio said we’re rolling into all time record bank bonuses, just had a restranteur say The $4K bottle of wine is back, another caterer said business just exploded in the past 3 weeks. Happy days are here again! Good news for NYS tax receipts and maybe NYC RE has bottomed. Time to sell and getthefuck outta here

  43. karen says:

    Reposado, I-Man. so yummy. market should go red by the close by the way.. just thot i’d throw that out there, for fun..

  44. cvienne says:

    …oh, I suppose I didn’t explain that…

    Treasuries AHEAD of the safety trade (for the 8/14 crash)…

    A 10 and 30 year bond auction is coming in two weeks…Some look at todays yields and want to get AHEAD…

  45. manhattanguy says:

    Agree red by end of day. It’s getting dark in Manhattan ..maybe a tell tale sign of what is coming to the market in the near future.

    I like TBT/TMV..will watch closely for a trade next week.

  46. I-Man says:

    I’ll go KISS on todays close:
    987.

  47. going broke says:

    oops, I was wrong, SPX hit a new HOD. Still holding into next week though. Since yesterdays morning run-up, it’s still in a decline.

    That crystal ball told me the SPX would close below 985…

  48. cvienne says:

    @I-Man

    Go back and read my (10:31) & (10:54) posts…

    As soon as I saw that little 10:02 move on the SPX (which I also posted a comment on), I knew that the day was “channeling” from here on out…

    Of course, everyone else was still parsing GDP at that moment, so they didn’t notice it…But I was DONE parsing GDP as I posted on THAT at (9:01)

    Later, in another thread, BR came out and basically UNDERLINED what I’d said…

    Come on man! :-)

  49. Andy T says:

    bubba Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    Man, you hardcore TA guys are a hoot. What’s so magical about 55 (or 89 or what ever fibonacci number suits you) other than the fact that it’s part of a numerology (which may or may not even be relevant to describing anything in nature).
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    bubba,

    I’m assuming your handle is an accurate description of yourself and your personality. Are you a “bubba?”

    I’m not even going to respond to your assertion that the fibonacci sequence is a bunch of mumbo jumbo, because your statements reveal a huge amount of ignorance. I would recommend using “the google” to do a little research on it first and then come back to us to explain why the Fibonacci Sequence and “phi” (1.618-The Golden Ratio) are a bunch of mumbo jumbo….

    Here’s some links to get you started….

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio

  50. DeDude says:

    bubba; whereas all that numerology is total BS in the context of thinking it is somehow based on some underlying paterns of reality that will always repeat itself in a future reality, it cannot be dismissed completely. Any computer scientist can make a model that completely predicts the past. If you add in enough “layers of complexity” you will end up with a perfect model of the past. However, those models usually get old very quickly and start departing from reality if you don’t update them constantly. But on Wall Street enough investors go to these mathematical gypsies (to get information from their computational crystal ball) that sales and purchases in the real world gets based on them. That means the real world start bending itself towards this mumbo-jumbo numerology, and now it cannot be ignored ;-)

  51. emmanuel117 says:

    Dow will end up 1 point, SPX .01 point.

    CNBC celebrates and suggests you buy or be priced out forever.

  52. cvienne says:

    @DeDude

    Do you wonder if the binding force in atomic structure and the mathematical configuration of complex molecules are result of just a random amount of “DeDudes” out there individually concluding…

    “Hey dude…let’s party”?

  53. AmenRa says:

    Today was a complete mindfuck for day traders.

  54. cvienne says:

    Oh gosh golly wow…

    with 3 minutes to go until the close…

    the SPX just touched the BOTTOM part of my aforementioned triangle…(and bounced)

  55. DeDude says:

    cvienne; no but I don’t use Einstein’s equations to predict if I will have a heart attack next year.

  56. karen says:

    Andy, you are too nice. I’m practicing my “If You Don’t Have Anything Nice to Say, Don’t Say It at All” mantra as well as turning the other cheek.

  57. karen says:

    AmenRa, is that why my head hurts? i thot it was the bottle of red on an empty stomach..

  58. cvienne says:

    MARKET CLOSED…4PM

    triange in tact…GAP down Monday…970-972 support coming at 1:30PM…YAWN

  59. cvienne says:

    @AmenRa (3:58)

    HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY SAY THAT?

    I posted it at 10:31 this morning!

  60. AmenRa says:

    @karen

    Been there done that LOL.

    Anyone notice the run up as the market settles?

  61. cvienne says:

    @DeDude

    “cvienne; no but I don’t use Einstein’s equations to predict if I will have a heart attack next year.”

    You should…at minumum, it allows one to STRESS LESS, therefore minimizing the possibility of said heart attack…:-)

  62. cvienne says:

    OK forget it…

    I’m going to mow the lawn now…

  63. dead hobo says:

    DeDude Says:
    July 31st, 2009 at 3:49 pm

    Any computer scientist can make a model that completely predicts the past.

    reply:
    ———-
    I’d rather just pick up a book or look at wikipedia rather than predict the past. That one is a gimmee.

    Agreed that, in normal times, TA creates self fulfilling prophecies. Also believe that any pattern can be adapted to an existing theory about something. TA people will glomm onto it as proof of concept.

    Also think that HFT excesses makes this market so unique that there is no past frame of reference that applies.

    In a normal world, some numbers do make sense if they provide a graphical interpretation of very current events just as statistical process control provides a frame of reference for normal and abnormal variation.

  64. DeDude says:

    cvienne; on the other hand a huge waste of time to come up with some false prediction, that time could be used a lot more productively on exercising and living healthy ;-)

  65. DeDude says:

    Dead hobo; I agree that the short term can be “graphed forward” for many simpler things. But I think it is very hard to do that for something like the S&P500. It is just being influenced by so many things including government intervention, human psychology and other traders trying to profit on their knowledge of what a specific model predicts (and therefore is likely to get the “true believers” to do).

  66. karen says:

    Gotta luv this headline: Dow has best month since 2002. Better luv it cuz you are going to see it and hear it all weekend…

  67. bubba says:

    @Amenra

    not quite the same. those who tread in this type of “analysis” want to believe that the price action of stocks follows a pattern of numerology (and yes AT I do have a firm grasp of the significance of fib seq.), and that can be used to predict future movements. There’s NO rational basis for this. It’s not the same as basing stock prices using different fundamental metrics. That’s not to say that FA is anymore accurate in market prediction. I once remarked to a freshly minted MBA type whose big on FA (also a big believer in that Efficient Market thingy) proper valuation of any given stock is whatever the last guy paid for it. I got mostly a disdain look.

    @AT
    Let’s make a deal, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you know what you’re talking about when you post, and you extend to me the same courtesy. That way neither one of us will needlessly appear silly. Yes, I’m well aware of the perceived significance of Fib numbers. I may not entirely agree of the significance attributed to it…but surely I am not ignorant of these magical numbers.

  68. I-Man says:

    Move over CV… I-Man called the close at 987… which wasnt that hard, I asked the magic 8ball… :)

    Seriously tho-
    I admire your analysis. I guess I’ll have to play catch up for awhile until I reach your level of greatness.
    (that’s “diet snark”)

  69. DeDude says:

    karen;

    I will raise you one; “Dow ends best July in 20 years”
    (short this rally at your own peril)

  70. Andy T says:

    bubba:

    I guess for some reason I took the following comments from you as intepretation that you thought it was a bunch of crap:

    “But this fibonacci mumble jumble is just that.”
    “I’m sure if I wanted to I can fit the ball-scratching habits of an average monkey to a fibonacci sequence.”
    “What makes this type of TA so much worse than astrology is that at least rational sentient beings can all agree that the latter is as useful a prognostication tool as the barking patterns of my deceased pet dog. At best this type of TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy; but if that were it’s only usefulness — again I ask, what’s so magical about a fibonacci number?”

    These comments seem in contrast to your last comments:

    “and yes AT I do have a firm grasp of the significance of fib seq.”
    “Yes, I’m well aware of the perceived significance of Fib numbers. I may not entirely agree of the significance attributed to it…but surely I am not ignorant of these magical numbers.”

    Your comments earlier suggested incredulity toward the significance of Fib #s and therefore I reached the conclusion you were simply ignorant of the concept. I apologize to you. I might suggest that something that is “perceived” to have significance actually does have significance.

    “Let’s make a deal, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that you know what you’re talking about when you post, and you extend to me the same courtesy. That way neither one of us will needlessly appear silly. ” — Agreed. Have a great weekend.

  71. AmenRa says:

    Well all I’ll say is this: back on 1/31/08 the SPX had a reversal bar on the monthly 3LB (well before all the hell that broke loose later in the year). Don’t know if means anything but we just had another reversal on the monthly 3LB. Say what you want but this is/was one hell of a bear market rally for this to occur. My 2¢

  72. bubba says:

    @Dedude

    Exactly my point. If enough traders use a numerology dictated by the farting habits of a south african baboon colony, then that’s a pretty useful prognostication tool. But somehow I don’t think the Fibo folks would like this comparison so much.

  73. bubba says:

    @AT

    very kind of you AT. rereading my post, I can see how it could have been miscontrued thus. I guess we’ll just agree to disagree on the usefulness of Fibo numbers in market predictions

  74. DeDude says:

    >> But somehow I don’t think the Fibo folks would like this comparison<<

    I know; but today is spit on Fibo day (you know the last Friday of the month), so we shall call them monkey farts and be done with it :-)

    Y’all have a great week-end

  75. Thor says:

    I-man – seriously – how did you call the close? You were the only one who got it even close – Manhattan, why did you think it would close in the red? I’m curious as to how you all make your calls as I’ve noticed that some people tend to be right more than others . . . .

  76. call me ahab says:

    bubba-

    dude- we have these debates regarding the usefulness of TA at the TBP- and your observation-

    ” a self-fulfilling prophecy”

    is something I have alluded to before- but- if everyone’s doing it- maybe it does have some predictive quality- just like a dog with a shock collar knows not to cross a certain line- whether the power is on or not

    dedude-

    franklin is a rube and deserves all negative feedback directed his way- trust me- there are folks on the TBP that have given him the benefit of the doubt- such as B in T and CNBC Sucks- but he inevitably says something that alienates anyone who might try yo defend him- such as – when he said-

    “China is our natural enemy”

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/making-money-on-gm-investment/#comment-182916

    like I said- a rube- check out the following comments once he relayed that gem

  77. Thor says:

    PS – I’m genuinely interesting, not trying to call anyone out or anything . . . .

  78. Thor says:

    Genuinely interestED – Whether I’m at all interstING is still open for debate ;-)

  79. call me ahab says:

    Karen, Karen- wherever you are-

    did you sell your QID before the closing bell today???

    I’m just nosey

  80. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    I can’t speak for I-Man (the call on the close)…and TRUST ME, I ain’t puttin down I-Man no way no how (he’s my brah)…

    But I-man made that post at 3:43 this afternoon (17 minutes to close)…

    I’m feeling the MIGHTY IGNORED today…for at (10:31) and (10:54) I made trading calls on the EXACT pattern that occurred today…(a triangulation – which I’m not going to re-iterate now – go read my comments and decipher it for yourself…You’ll need charts that show 10 – 15 minute ticks)…

    My model was challenged at 3:26 this afternoon (for which I posted a comment at (3;30)…Then it fell back into line…

    Furthermore, I extrapolated my thesis into next Monday (1:30PM to be precise)…So it has further to go for everyone to prove me wrong…

    Whatever…

    I’m no genius…and probably my posts here this afternoon will bring more DISTAIN from TBP populace than anything else…

    But they sure would have made somebody some money today!…

    This while I was mostly doing errands (not even watching the markets…

    Have a good weekend everyone…I know DeDude will because he isn’t bothered with monkey shines like fractals & mathematics…

  81. cvienne says:

    …actually I extrapolated my thesis thru August 11th, then 14th, if anyone is reading…

    But they must not be because the SEEDS for this thesis I’ve been planting for 3 days now…

  82. call me ahab says:

    Thor @ 5:42

    dude- we find you interesting- you don’t have to shill for yourself- LOL j/k

  83. Thor says:

    Cvienne – sorry I missed your earlier call! I give you props for all your calls though so don’t feel left out. I understand the call at 17 minutes before the close, a couple of other people were making calls though and they were off a bit, was just curious if I-man was using a different system than everyone else.

    Ahab – you are too kind!

  84. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    Thanks Thor…

    I realize I’m being a whiny baby here…It probably puts people off more than anything else…

    I’ll just relish in my own miniscule world…

    Nice thunderstorm today (almost tornado)…That always clears the air…There’s till sunlight…gotta go to Autozone to get a trailer hitch rigging for my new truck…Got a boat last week, but it’s stuck there doing nothing at the moment…

  85. Thor says:

    I love T-storms – you’ve lived here though Cvienne, you know we don’t have weather in LA :(

  86. DeDude says:

    OK cvienne; since you are pretty specific on your predictions for the future such as the “need to visit 1008 …dates for that around August 11th or 12th” I will put my money where your mouth is. I normally rebalance on the 18th but sometimes (if strongly nudged) will do it up to a week earlier. So if the visit to 1008 comes on August 10-13 I will rebalance that day. Furthermore, if that move saves me money (S&P ends higher that day than August 18th), I will shock the monkey and refrain from participating in “spit on Fibo Friday” for the next 2 years. If your mouth cost me money I expect you to participate on DeDude and Bubba’s team on next “spit on Fibo Friday”. Deal?

  87. I-Man says:

    Howdy bredren! (as I see the Mistress aint around… unless she’s lurking half drunk off milagro with her laptop from the beach waiting for the start of the good ole west coast sunset party… but I doubt sand is too good for computers… I know it turned my BB screen to an etch a sketch… but tangent…)

    @ CV-

    I admit. I did not give your post the time I should have because I assumed you were looking at a 60min chart, which I dont have at “the cube”, I only have the 5, 10, 15, daily, weekly, and monthly. So I brushed it off because I couldnt connect last friday’s low. Thats my answer for why I didnt “trade” it.

    Obviously, I got bigger issues with not being able to sit tight in a congested tape.

    If peeps aint piping up about how prescient and keen your analytical calls are, its because they are in awe of them… those in the know anyway, I cant speak for bubba. I’m not going to turn a thread into a “CV you are such a badass party” though. I mean that with the utmost respect btw, I’m just shooting straight.

    Further, I think sometimes your theories require so much brainwave to wrap around that some people might just overlook them and not really “draw” the conclusions. (pun intended) Trust me, it takes time and effort to fully comprehend the foresight of your work.

    Also want you to know that I think your calls ARE quite badass… and if I dont immediately “bite” them, as in the spirit of “biting rhymes”… its only because ultimately, I gotta be looking at my own charts… and drawing my own conclusions, which may even be ignorant in the face of yours, but we all got a path to follow, right? Many trails up the mtn, they all lead to the top.

    And off the other thread, you’re more Mad Scientist than Class Clown, fwiw.

    @ Thor:

    Luck bro. Just thought at that point that the daily action in the tape had “doji” written all over it. Indecision, day trading mind-fuckery, as it were. Frustrating, if you did not recognize the larger pattern at work, which CV pointed out very early. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doji

  88. call me ahab says:

    i-man-

    i have to agree re cvienne- saw that same self described remark “class clown”- I don’t think anyone thinks that-

    I think you made an apt description- “mad scientist”- not a TA person- so most definitely can’t keep up with cvienne’s observations-

    so I read them much as child reads a grown up book- repeating the words- with no idea what the fuck they mean-

    but i am trying

  89. cvienne says:

    @I-Man

    Thanks, I’m satisfied…Oh and by the way I’m back from getting my trailer hitch rigging…Don’t have a damn 3/4 inch wrench (stop at 5/8), so I’ll have to get to it tomorrow…

    As for calls…

    All I have to say is one thing…I’m not trying to be a “badass” here…In fact, I have to give out some serious props to: You, AmenRa, ben22, karen, manhattanguy, and “most definitely” Andy T…

    It’s a complex weave of all the insights that I hear from all you guys that I mix into a cocktail (that later becomes a “call”)…

    Hell, ben’s the one who ought to get the props so far (because as we speak, he’s dead in the crosshairs of the one call he made – the one I know of – 965 -1k)…

    I actually, with respect to that, I had it a little wrong…I identified a lot of the moves around the end of June 1st week in July…but I was really thinking 956 was the top…I was fortunate enough to see the error in may ways early before the craziness…I know you don’t want to revisit that…

    I admitted that after 960+ I was in wonderland (and needed a few days to see through the fog – but I’m seeing it a little here)…

    But consider this ESPECIALLY YOU DE DUDE…I don’t mind making small “precise” calls within a narrow trading range, to wit…(10:54) this morning…
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/comment-page-4/#comment-199133

    TEXT – if you’re bored…

    The “point” of that triangle would expire Monday at 1:30PM…

    So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…

    Let’s see…um…MERCY ME…the SPX made a LOW today of 982.85 and a HIGH of 993.18…Sorry I couldn’t narrow that down for you a little…

    Anyway, anything I say is with the caveat FWIW…

    I’m not just pulling these numbers out of my ass…Furthermore, I’m not making any TRADING recommendations, I’m just telling people how I’m seeing the playing field…I trust everyone who reads this blog has enough horse sense to figure out whether or not that means anything to them…

    Many, I’m sure, don’t effing care!

  90. cvienne says:

    @bubba @de dude

    Last comment on the subject…

    Ask yourself how some farmer like me could publish a call like the above referenced one at (10:54AM)…Meaning I started typing it at 10:48AM…

    Answer…technical analysis…

    From having done HOMEWORK, I already knew what the main pressure points were…The first pressure point (downside) was hit at 10:06 and the market reacted…

    It followed a classic ANDY T 5 wave “elliott” until it reached a peak at 10:45…

    So if you understand TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, it “puts you in the ballpark” of what is probably happening…

    I suppose if the “Germans had bombed Pearl Harbor” during the sequence (or if Obama had done a press conference telling everyone how he was going to have a beer with Martha Stewart), then the model would have been blown…

    …but trust me…THERE’S ALWAYS A PLAN B…

    I wonder if Belichick just “wings it” on Sunday?

  91. I-Man says:

    LOL

  92. I-Man says:

    I agree… surriously.

    There will be a downside breakout from the triangle. But short lived I’m afraid. Just a feeling I get. The charts back it up in the high 960s. It’ll be just enough to get alot of shorts giddy. Then a reversal. You can bet your ass I’ll be out of short positions on the reversal this time.

  93. Wes Schott says:

    @cv-

    you are a freak on so many fronts

    a great life

    luv ya man

  94. call me ahab says:

    cvienne-

    Belichick doesn’t wing it- he secretly tapes it-

    so . . . if I knew what GS was going to do- I could always be a winner-

    right?

    by the way- prediction- NE has a even record this year- Chicago-strong play off contenders w/ Cutler- Arizona and my man Warner- Super Bowl win-

    Warner can throw a fucking football- but- needs to work on his cold weather game

  95. bubba says:

    OK cvienne, I’ll bite. Let’s see, you wrote:

    “So I expect a bounce around today between 983 – 993 (and closing)…If none of those boundaries are breached, the market may gap one way or the other on the Monday open…My preliminary expectations would be DOWN, however, I believe SUPPORT would then come in at around 970 (with first support around 972)…”

    This was posted @10:54AM; I’ll be generous and grant you that you started thinking about posting this a good 1/2 hr prior, that brings us to 10:24. Now lets see when did the SPX print the day low of 982.85, oh around 10:10. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d

    man, what foresight…you’ve actually predicted an event that HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED! effing genius! and might I add that in that one sentence you’ve left yourself more outs than is theoretically possible with a hand of texas hold’em.

    TA types like you suffer from a form of psychological adjustment commonly known as SELECTIVE MEMORY.

    “I wonder if Belichick just “wings it” on Sunday?”
    no, he cheats! bad example.

  96. cvienne says:

    @bubba

    I made about 20 effing posts today and you STILL don’t know what I’m saying…

    First one…IMPORTANT…came at (10.02)

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199097

    I took MAJOR NOTE of that move out of the corner of my eye…Because I can type and chew gum at the same time…

    Between 10:04 and 10:22 I made no less that 4 more posts…3 of them were obviously a waste of time because they were to Franklin (as is, probably, THIS post)…The other was to Pat G…

    Then you get my 10:31 post to I-Man…

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199125

    The “triangulation” I was referring to was the 983 number (a number that I “assumed” anyone looking at a chart could see)…Nevertheless, if they were INCAPABLE of seeing it, I SPELLED IT OUT IN BOLD LETTERS in this post later…

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/advance-gdp-10/#comment-199133

    …which was posted at 10:54, but which I started typing a few minutes earlier…

    …even at 3:30 (after having spent 3 hours running errands and not even looking at the markets I logged in and read a bunch of rants and raves about the market doing this or that before the close…I posted my “Jesus Christ people” comment…I’m not even in the mood to find it, you go find the fu**er if you want…

    Do I need to tell you how I cut my grass too?
    I’m not even going to waste my time anymore with this shit…

  97. call me ahab says:

    bubba-

    you absolutely need to apologize to cvienne

    what you miss is that it held true- he made his prediction and- and he said that the SPX would bounce around 983- 993

    he’s not wrong- how could he know that the 982 would be the low- no matter what time earlier in the day it occurred- for example-

    if the spx was @ 995 at 11:00- could you say that it was the low of the day- last I checked- it can still go down further-

    right???

    and as you must know- it topped around 993- around 3:00 to 4:00- so he pegged it from what I can see-

    right???

  98. cvienne says:

    I guess what it amounts to is…

    “We sittin’ here talking ’bout PRACTICE”…(not the game)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exOxUAntx8I

  99. call me ahab says:

    funny shit cvienne-

    it still makes me cringe every time I see Namath drunk on his ass coming on to that female reporter- sad indeed-

    saw that live by the way- unbearable to watch

  100. cvienne says:

    @ahab

    Oh…sorry my man…

    I ‘more than’ kinda agree with you on the Chicago Bears chances this year…

    Let me do my PRE-PRESEASON PICKS (please allow me at least ONE revision before the season kicks off to fall in line with the likes of bubba’s timeframe)…

    AFC EAST – Patriots
    AFC NORTH – Steelers
    AFC SOUTH – Titans
    AFC WEST – Chargers
    AFC WILD CARD – Jets, Dolphins

    NFC EAST – Eagles
    NFC NORTH – Bears
    NFC SOUTH – Falcons
    NFC WEST – 49ers
    NFC WILD CARD – Cowboys, Saints

    SUPERBOWL – Bears – Patriots

    Note: I’m a RAVENS fan…