Art Cashin on Secular Cycles
Art Cashin has been on a floor broker on the NYSE for UBS for as long as I can remember. His daily missives on CNBC are the highlight of their broadcast day.
“Back On The Cycle – David Rosenberg, formerly chief economist at Merrill Lynch and now at Gluskin Sheff was a guest host on CNBC’s Squawkbox this morning. During the discussion he alluded to an 18 year cycle in the market. Not to quibble but many traders have thought of it as the 17.6 year cycle. Here’s how I outlined it back in May 2002: Yesterday, as the elders were being asked about the hiding place of the great Bull Market one of the fogeys mentioned the “near 18 year cycle.” Like the fat and lean years, it refers to so-called “easy” times to make money in the market versus times requiring much harder work. The fogeys suggested it was near 18 years because it was approximately 17 years, 7 months. For ease of explanation to the juniors, one of the fogeys decimalized the number as 17.6 years so they could use their calculators. He then postulated this example – Let’s say the markets topped out in about February 2000. Let’s call that 2000.2. Subtract 17.6 and your back in about July 1982 (1982.60). The Dow was around 900. So you could see why those were a fat (easy) 17 years. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around January of 1965 and the Dow is around 900. (Yup – just like 1982.) Many twists and turns in those 17 years. Lots of chances to make money. But you had to work for every penny. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around May of 1947. The war is over. The Dow is around 170. Lots of prosperity ahead. Take away 17.6 and you are back around Sept of 1929 and the Dow is around 350. He began to go on. The juniors had had enough. Folks don’t like to hear that you can do well only if you do your homework everyday. Having lived through two of those cycles, we can attest to the work cycle.”
Great stuff.
July 8th, 2009 at 8:28 am
Lefty:
They beat us to it:
http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/2004954.html
California IOUs may become investment vehicles
….We just should have moved faster…
July 8th, 2009 at 8:31 am
Doug Short has a nich chart showing this
http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend
July 8th, 2009 at 8:35 am
Art Cashin was in the presence of The Great CNBC Sucks recently and Art didn’t even know it. The Great CNBC Sucks is like a financial ninja. But you are right, Ritzy, Art is a highlight of the CNBC broadcast day.
I should add – giving credit where credit is due – that some of those CNBC hour-long specials are good. The David Faber special on Madoff that has been replayed a few times was engrossing and masterful. The Great CNBC Sucks is not a total dick to CNBC.
And Ritzy, I loved your comment yesterday about “a brief lesson for those who don’t manage money for a living” and not being able to “sit on our hands and miss a 75% or even a 40% rally” (http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/sp-falls-to-2-month-lows/#comment-190855). There is “blog reality” and “making a living and staying credible reality”. We all get a bit hyperbolic on this blog, but professional finance doesn’t really work that way.
July 8th, 2009 at 8:52 am
Well then it’s agreed – see you guys back here in September 2017!
July 8th, 2009 at 8:58 am
Very Martin Armstrong-esque of him.
We don;t bottom until 2011 the earliest and it will get ugly!
July 8th, 2009 at 9:02 am
time to start selling volatility
July 8th, 2009 at 9:02 am
The problem with this is that the pension system is based on everyone deserving an above average investment advisor. And everyone should do their homework so as to beat the index.
The reality is that no matter how hard most work, a few will make money and the majority will lose.
From a bottom up approach, you can always make money but from the top-down, the system is failing the people.
The entire Ponzi retirement scheme is a farce. How can a system thrive long term when it is built on shaky foundations.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:04 am
@curbyourrisk
“Very Martin Armstrong-esque of him”
Certainly the correlation is there…
July 8th, 2009 at 9:15 am
I just looked at a maximum time span chart of the S&P 500 on yahoo and I didn’t see not stinking cycles of any kind. Perhaps the word ‘cycle’ has a secret meaning that only applies to magic charts and the entrails necessary to make full sense of them.
Please, for the edification of all, ask Mr Cashin or anyone else who is familiar with charts based on stock market astrology to exactly explain what happens in the cycle, what drives it, and perhaps include a standard deviation or two regarding something that is factually measurable. Also, please explain if market manipulation programs like GS’s former one have any impact on said cycles. Or if asset bubble driven commodity markets and the regulation that permits them are a cycle driven event.
We can ignore stock market pump economics for now as it might be a thing of the past, for now anyway. However, if the pump returns, then the explanation of the magical mystical mystery of the cycle should at least mention it. How do Pavlov’s computers and the clever programmers required to make said computers buy the stocks the programmers are selling fit in to the cycle?
Apparently, the stock market is an example of secular Creationist Theory. There is no free will or
independence allowed. What you see is predestined, with only the most superficial aspects possible allowed to make each day look a little different. (Since March 2009, I would agree on that point.)
Stock Market Astrologers! …. Unite and Explain. Only you know our fate.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Have believed this to be true since our “Secular Bear” began. Not so much smart, as was an active investor from 1963 on and “experienced” that Secular Bear…ie, one of the “old fogies”! Interestingly, too many were then years too late in reentering the equities market after the Secular Bull began in 8/82. Also of interest, for those like self unable to “time” the Markets’ cyclical bulls and bears within, there were SOME Money and Mutual Fund managers who did very well during those bleak “17.6 years, so CAN do fine while awaiting 2017 and the ability to return to “Buy and Hold”.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:27 am
If Ed Wood and The Amazing Criswell were alive today, I suspect Criswell would be a prolific chartist and Ed Wood would switch from movie making to being a pundit of finance and transcribe Criswell’s efforts as books on investment.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Why is every level considered a technical level? First it’s 900 on the S&P then it’s 880. Oh wait, maybe it’s the 200dma. I have to stop watching the MSM.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:36 am
AmenRa Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Why is every level considered a technical level? First it’s 900 on the S&P then it’s 880. Oh wait, maybe it’s the 200dma. I have to stop watching the MSM.
reply:
————–
They do it to keep the rubes coming back. When I was but a young bum, a popular ice cream parlor used to go crazy everyone said today was their birthday. All employees would drop what they were doing, run over to the birthday boy or girl and sing Happy Birthday like their lives depended on it. They would always announce the celebrant’s name and announce their ‘Very Special 52nd Birthday’ or whatever the age of the moment was.
Just as every birthday was a very special birthday, so goes the very special technical levels worshiped by pundits and astrologers. Thanks to Mr Cashin, as of now, the don’t even have to be integers.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Secular bear/bull markets make sense to me but I see no reason why they all have to be 17.6 years in length. Sure, the pattern fits decently enough for US markets but what about for the rest of the world? They don’t show the same history. So my opinion is generational dynamics is real which can create investment generational dynamics and thus stock bull/bear secular markets. Saying they all last exactly 17.6 years goes too far though.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:45 am
@dead hobo
I know I know. I just think it’s funny. I guess they figure they have to keep the retail investor from bailing on the market.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Martin Weiss has been beating the market-cycle-theory drum lately, even hosting a guy on what amounts to an internet info-mercial that runs a foundation originally set up by the Hoover Administration to try and make sense of what was happening in the Great Depression.
His cycle theory is very close to the 17.6 years of Cashin. He sees twenty year cycles, and expects stocks to bottom in about 2010/11. He recommends long gold/silver and shorts through inverse ETF’s like DOG, but makes the weasle point that there will be many contrary trends within the big one. For example, going long gold right now is not a good intermediate strategy.
Whether his reasoning is correct, I think his big picture view of trends is. The next leg down is coming. (Perhaps it has already started, what with GS’s proprietary market manipulation, er, trading software, coming under scrutiny because of its purported theft.)
The video is here: http://weiss.streamlogics.com/June30-12pm/
It’s not directed at traders, but at what LB might call Investools. I’m not a trader, but try to get the big trends right. It mostly just affirmed what I had already concluded.
July 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
” dead hobo Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 9:27 am
If Ed Wood and The Amazing Criswell were alive today, I suspect Criswell would be a prolific chartist and Ed Wood would switch from movie making to being a pundit of finance and transcribe Criswell’s efforts as books on investment.”
too funny……
July 8th, 2009 at 10:02 am
Are any financial pundits around today who are to financial punditry as Ed Wood was to movie making? Name some names and explain yourself.
July 8th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Probably has to do with Sun Spots…
July 8th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Just got back from my fantastic 5 day vacation in Upstate NY. Oh all my shorts are looking great. I am going to open some $AA shorts later today. I have a feeling they will disappoint again. There is a correlation between Alcoa results and quarterly market performance.
BTW, the Head and Shoulders pattern I saw last week was dead on. Although some people on this board disagreed with me.
July 8th, 2009 at 10:09 am
A quality hip-hop post from Macro Man this morning.
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/07/californias-bust.html
LB is ahead on his bounce trade in energy stocks from yesterday, at least to this point.
SPX 880 intact, dead hobo’s views of technical traders notwithstanding…
England v Australia match us nicely poised this afternoon in Cardiff. LB brings you ALL the news.
July 8th, 2009 at 10:13 am
manhattanguy Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 10:07 am
BTW, the Head and Shoulders pattern I saw last week was dead on. Although some people on this board disagreed with me
comment:
—————
I saw it too and wondered it it would prognosticate a multi month drop. Contrary to what might be implied by my disgust for magic charts, this type of analysis makes perfect sense. Elementary psychological insights can easily explain it, especially when augmented with a basic understanding of current events and common economics.
July 8th, 2009 at 10:27 am
“Folks don’t like to hear that you can do well only if you do your homework everyday. ” -from the post
And, yes, Art Cashin is one of the Best.
July 8th, 2009 at 10:29 am
it is easy to go back in time and come up with patterns- similar to the old television special “Chariot of the Gods” which looked at Egyptian hieroglyphics to prove that we were visited by astronauts from another world- that in fact-
the earth was populated by aliens- and that the the dimensions of the the great pyramid show a startling relationship to Pi- but I would imagine that if one were so inclined they could find relationships and patterns by examining anything at all- and then make an observation- however- the observation is based on historical data and does not portend the future- but maybe-
if enough people believe- for instance- that market crashes occur only in October- then a crash will most likely occur in October
July 8th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Is he sure it wasn’t 17.5932 years? I love his sense of humor.
July 8th, 2009 at 10:57 am
@dead hobo
“Just as every birthday was a very special birthday, so goes the very special technical levels worshiped by pundits and astrologers. Thanks to Mr Cashin, as of now, the don’t even have to be integers.”
I don’t want to sound like I’m worshipping at the technical altar, but technical analysis is how we map out behavior…
When you’re driving your car, I’m sure if you wanted to you could just 4 wheel it across lawns & playgrounds to get to your destination…Or you could stop at intersections, yield right of way, and prevent a lot of wrecks that way…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:00 am
I’m sure we’re all familiar with ‘correlation does not imply causation,’ i.e. “correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other, though it does not remove the fact that correlation can still be a hint, whether powerful or otherwise” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation). Perhaps this concept is too simplistic, but is sure seems like it might fit here. That aside, I’ve never found a reason to keep the idiot box ON once Cashin has his piece in the morning.
July 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Big moment for the pump team here…
Oh the suspense…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:15 am
@I-Man
“Big moment for the pump team here…”
My take is that there are some pretty big positions being unloaded in crude right now (duh – look at the charts)…
I still think we’ll get a bounce, but not until those positions are fully absorbed…
IMO – the ’significance’ of this is more down the line…meaning, one last minor cruise up, but the TOP is in for ‘09…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:16 am
The e-mini has wiped out all of the overnight pump action. Guess the fear of a bad earnings season is starting to settle in.
July 8th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Cmon Left… this is way more exciting then that cricket shit…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Wow – that was a pretty interesting flip in the markets
July 8th, 2009 at 11:28 am
The IMF said China will lead the recovery. But China is dependent on exports (mainly to the U.S.). If the US consumer is cutting back on purchases how can China lead a recovery?
July 8th, 2009 at 11:33 am
There goes 880, we’ll see what happens on a closing basis. I-Man, both events are equally THRILLING.
Look at the 5-year yield now, I guess Treasuries were not dead after all…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:34 am
AmenRa – They can’t, and I don’t think they will. I think a great deal of China’s “miracle” is built on a house of cards that will soon start falling apart. One thing to note – very little (is any) information coming out of the Chinese government about the health or growth of their economy can be trusted as factual.
July 8th, 2009 at 11:37 am
cvienne Says:
July 8th, 2009 at 11:15 am
My take is that there are some pretty big positions being unloaded in crude right now (duh – look at the charts)…
reply:
—————-
Agreed. The fast speculator oil money is running for the door now that the world is going to make them illegal.
The best way to fix the US economy is to fix the way commodity bubbles are built and make it impossible to use oceans of money and index funds to pump the price. Once oil lowers and looks stable, people will feel safe and start to spend. Then the recovery will begin, slowly, but it will be a real green shoot followed by a lot more growth. Plus, the fast money might even end up in real Investment.
About charts, those that are graphical interpretations of current behavior that it can be easily explained by something real, I’m for it. Especially if it is supported by a pattern of behavior. Magic multi-period cycles are sucker bait.
July 8th, 2009 at 11:46 am
@dh
The only thing is…I’m actually playing for a “bounce” in crude here…
Very temporary – I think it’ll take foot pretty soon…There were huge volume spikes at 9:30 & 10:30…
11:30 not showing the same so maybe the position is unwound & the shorts will cover…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:49 am
actually there was a minor spike at 11:30 but I think it got parceled into 3 blocks…
July 8th, 2009 at 11:52 am
You know, it’s funny…
Traders on TBP look at the S&P below 880 and “goosebumps” abound…
Yet the average Joe Schmo is at his workplace, or somewhere, and CNN is on in the background and they see the DOW down 18 points and it doesn’t seem like such a big deal…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Time cycles…
One of the things about time cycles in markets/commodities is that they are better at predicting “lows” and are useless for predicting “highs.” So, “IF” there was an 18 yr cycle, then it would be better are getting you on low points….not saying there is such a thing…just saying that’s the way cycle practitioners would approach it.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Yeah… whats that Dylan quote?
“You dont need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”
July 8th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Whoa. yen went into face-ripper-offer mode today….seems a little overdone at the moment. 108.70 is the 61.8% retrace so should see some sort of slow down about now…..
July 8th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Kudos to cvienne for calling the post-4th of July BBQ sell-off extremely accurately. Nice going. LB is also playing for a bounce in crude, will use ERX and RSX as vehicles, maybe WFT.
“Yet the average Joe Schmo is at his workplace, or somewhere”
Johhny Retail will take a while to realize he is underwater on his purchases of C and BAC from Brian the Broker.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
LB – Yes, props to CV, I’ve been waiting patiently for this week ever since he made the call.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
Kudos to CV you have been spot on thus far. I’m just hoping you are right about the bounce back to 910. I need to see 900 to break even on SSO. I am stilling holding on until I hear Alcoa report, it should set the tone for earnings season…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
The daily 3LB reversed (had a turnaround bar) on 7/2. I’m still waiting on the weekly 3LB to confirm. The daily may begin trending before the weekly confirmation though. My 2¢
July 8th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
@lefty@Thor
Thanks –
You know something lefty…I’m only looking at the following with casual interest, but GLD just broke under FIBO support from its April low to it’s June high…
That tells me that the DEFLATION story is valid…Govvie away AT WILL gentlemen!
July 8th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
@CC
“I’m just hoping you are right about the bounce back to 910″
Be careful, if this market sells off too much, that line is gonna move a little (right now it’s in the 901-909 range, and nudging down)…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Yes, we may indeed be on the proverbial slope of hope. If that slope extends below 800 I’d think that folks will start getting quite anxious again. Folks seemed rather sanguine when the market sauntered down that way in Feb, until it got below 741, the previous low. Then the sweat started to run.
That strong conviction out there that the worst is behind us, and the market should stay in a “trading range” above 850 or so, will lead to many average folks feeling quite “betrayed” yet again. Will we see a real revulsion this year?
July 8th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Any bounce now aint going back to 910… 900 maybe… but if this accelerates at all, I’m prone to cap a bounce to 888 or 880.
We’ll see though… I certainly wouldnt want to hinge hope on any good news coming out of AA… but I’ve been wrong enough before.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Brian the Broker….that’s funny Lefty. One my buddies, who happens to be a broker, was talking about how much money he made on BAC…..He was the same guy telling me that “No way we go back to the lows ‘cuz the recession is over this year. Every economist says so!”
July 8th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Dollar is pretty flat as well, so this sell off is not due to dollar strength. If we get some real dollar strength, then…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Every “on the half hour”, 9:30, 10:30, 11:30, 12:30, large volumes of the USO are being dumped…
We’ll see how long this continues…
July 8th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Same thing in XLF and IYR
July 8th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
All – as OT says the dollar is flat, oil is falling, gold is falling, the markets are all falling . . .is it unusual for most of these things to all fall at once?
July 8th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
@ I-Man
AA whisper number is (.40) with consensus at (.36). If the whisper is taken out and weekly claims comes in worse than expected then look out below tomorrow.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
@cvienne
Not just USO, I see the same in UCO..Oil speculators (longs) are unloading their investments. I expect a bounce but it won’t last long. Looks like my AA short call worked out well.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Thor. The dollar is actually stronger against all currencies except the Yen. Because of how strong the Yen is, it’s making the DX look “flat”….
All things falling at once is not “unusual.” See last year for important examples. It’s all one market most of the time….that’s why “diversification” is B.S.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
@ Ra:
Trends have a way of presaging the news… so I wouldnt be surprised at all to see that.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
@ Thor:
When it happens like this… it smells like “deleveraging”.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Thor
The psychology has turned, it seems. Overwhelming the correlations that seemed to be driving the show. For now anyway.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
@cvienne, I was just dwelling on the govvies this morning, feeling bad that I had missed the recent, pretty dang strong, rally.
Sounds like I need to cowboy up.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
@I-Man
My FXP is up 13% in 2 days…& I’m not selling…I’m waiting for a pullback then ADD
July 8th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Andy, rarely does anyone say “diversification is B.S.” but it is very true.. and it is he root of portfolio theory. Not mine, of course. : )
July 8th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Unless they want to take this thing down to 957 tomorrow, we made the bottom of a pretty generous channel already (with 7 days to go before opex Friday)
July 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Yay! We have a Mistress sighting! Where ya been?
July 8th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Covered my shorts, bought some $FAS and $UCO for a trade with tight stops. I smell a bounce.
July 8th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
“we made the bottom of a pretty generous channel already”
See the same channel…maybe we consolidate or bounce a smidge with some “surprisingly” good numbers from AA? Yen looks like it got stopped for now into the big 61.8 retrace…so may be we consolidate now for 24 hours….Not seeing anything out here that makes me want to cover shorts, but I find it difficult to add on at this moment….888 should now be short term resistance for any bounce….any break of 888 next 24-48 hours would surprise/confuse me a bit….
July 8th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
I-Man, you know I’m a market junkie.. and we seem to have a market again..
July 8th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
@Andy T
“See the same channel”
It puts a .618rt back up at 908.73…If you want to see something else I see connect the May 1st low to today’s low…Top of THAT is the 5/29 low on the same degree of slope…
It would point you right at 907 on 7/22 (Tuesday after options expiry)…What’s interesting also about that date is that the 931 retest of 956 came in on the 14th day…
931 – July 22…14 days…
Too symmetrical?
July 8th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
“Fate, it seems… is not without a sense of irony.”
-Morpheus, The Matrix
July 8th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
cvienne
What, a H&S isn’t enough for you? You need a double top too?
July 8th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
BAC off 10% on the day…
“Hello, Brian? Is Brian in? What’s that? Gone fishing? Well, it’s about the BAC he sold me… hello.. hello.. hello?”
Don’t bet against surprisingly “less bad” numbers from AA tonight, “beating the Street” and sparking a rally.
July 8th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Oops, disregard, I read your post wrong. I see now you’re looking for more right shoulder that would make the H&S symmetrical, right?
July 8th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
@OT
I never did like H&S…
My head isn’t screwed on straight…:-)
Besides, with 7 days to go until OPEX, there’s plenty of clowning around to do!
July 8th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Yeah, AA will probably be “BTE”.
July 8th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
@OT
If you want to look at H&S…Once could make the case that today was the right shoulder of 4/17…
People view inkblots in different ways…
I’m not optimistic about the next 3 months in this market, but I don’t see that just because we went under 880 it’s time to get all giddy shorting…
July 8th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Lot’s of call volume on the $10 strike for AA…
July 8th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Wow. 3.33% on the 10-year, for sure there will be some profit taking on that tomorrow and a flow back in to stocks.
Andy, WTF with the JPY:USD? Tokyo is not going to like that move when trading opens there.
July 8th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
@CC
I’m not funnin’ with you here CC, but I’m just chuckling out loud to myself…
LADIES & GENTLEMEN, THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF THE ENTIRE PLANET RESTS SQUARELY IN THE HANDS OF THE ALCOA NUMBERS! PLEASE…TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS…
lol
July 8th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
danm,
Every aspect of our tinker toy economy is ponzied to the hilt. I
July 8th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
@lefty
It’s all that yen carry that was spun into oil profits now going back into pictures of the emperor…
July 8th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
This H&S is something I’m paying attention to on the periphery, but to be honest there was so much blathering about this morning on CNBC that I’m doubting it will play out so easily…
July 8th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
@Andy agreed. Yahoo has been reporting this play in various columns since last week….
July 8th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
@Andy T
Look, the H&S to pay attention to is going to be the REVERSE H&S that’s going to form it’s right shoulder on about July 23rd in the 903-910 range…
July 8th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
left. yen looks like a sell. Not sure what happened today with that parabolic type move…obviously some huge stops hit, but let’s face it…japan is in a shambles and there’s no way that export driven economy is going to allow that kind of move in the Yen. I’m expecting a lot of chatter from BOJ tonight/tomorrow….
July 8th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
That’s where ALL THE MARBLES are going to spill out…
July 8th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
The TRAN is trying to hold 3000. The rails have really gotten hit the last couple of weeks, and commodities looking a lot like last July. I thought they might be able to prop up this garbage heap, but its really looking iffy.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
what say we re YCS as a short term play?
July 8th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Andy: Agreed, we may hear the BoJ jawboning about more QE. CV may be right – forced carry trade unwind on oil. Crude is off its lows here, at least a little. Govies have been zooming, the 5-year being the sweet spot in the belly.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
I dont know about that Ahab…
Maybe a one or two day trade.
These guys think the yen is a sell… when I look at it, I see one of the healthiest uptrends around. (Weekly timeframe) If the yen decides to go parabolic again like it did the last time the shit hit the fan and we had a big carry trade unwind, then you could get hit with the freightrain on YCS.
Better to own some FXY on a retest of this breakout at 105-106 IMO than to dick around with a countertrend play.
Just my two cents.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Some miners, for example, SLW and HMY, are looking attractive at these levels, both close to three-month lows.
That looks good for LB to dick around with a countertrend play.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
iman/lback-
thx for the feedback
July 8th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Oh I’d be dicking around with countertrend plays if I had the time to monitor them uninterrupted and had the capital to play with.
I know you’re qualified Left- no offense intended. I’m just position trading for awhile.
Anytime Ahab- you da man.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
whats up all, been busy today.
we broke 870, I’m with LB and some others above on AA tonight. It’s earnings season, not revenue season.
the 965-1k call looks to be dead at this point, we could get a bounce here, maybe 920-930 tops.
ZSL is @ 10.42!
July 8th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
I think I’ll skim a little off the top here on TLT and let it rest a few days
July 8th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
$TBT and $TMV looks like on fire sale…tempted to get some for a trade
July 8th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
@manhattanguy,
I’m curious, why would you short treasuries if you really thought that H&S pattern was playing out? Just thinking a short term trade?
LB has been developing this idea over the last month and today it shows up in the think tank today:
The rollover in the stock market and large drop in commodity prices certainly brought out the buyers as risk aversion trumped inflation concerns, $ weakness, government finances and quantitative easing.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
The running of the bulls has commenced. The 10yr is down 173bps (-5.00%) and the 30yr is down 146bps (-3.3%). Say what you want but the traders are heading for the underground bunkers.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
@LB
SLW huh?
What? is the Cricket match on “tea break” and that tea serving set got you thinking about silver?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
@ben22 – yes, just for a short term trade. I haven’t initiated any positions. But they both seem oversold imo. But I am watching them closely against $AA earnings after market close and tomorrow’s sale of 30 year bond.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I hate to leave the party, but I gotta go…
Happy Trading!
July 8th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
The England v Australia game was nicely balanced at the end of the day, rather like the market here is between dollar bulls and bears. I was just thinking that the dollar bears are due for a few days in the ascendancy.
If LB was going to play that trade with leverage, the gold/silver miners would be the way to go, although we also have some ERX. We haven’t touched these stocks for months and they are starting to look a little more tempting. TBT also looks good here for a few days.
I-Man: No worries, LOL. Earlier in the day, the conversation on the trading desk at Schadenfreude had in fact turned to the precise question of why exactly we were dicking around with a counter-trend trade when we could be making money like I-Man. Luckily this is a small trade, and not of the kitchen sink variety.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
LB – how come you’ve started referring to yourself in the third person?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
The I is rubbing off on him…
I-Man thinks.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
SLW might not be a bad idea right here as a countertrend play.
I know Frizzione was looking for a pullback before adding to her ZSL position. Silver has gotten killed recently so probably a good chance at making money on a quick trade in SLW.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
LB is inordinately fond of mimicry, Thor, and will frequently adopt the literary habits of those he admires.
- for example, Mark E Hoffer, our stylist, par excellence – when it comes to, among other things, punctuation. Or one could EASILY imagine a HOMAGE to our gentleman farmer and exercise GURU, cvienne.
In this case, LB has clearly adopted the slightly pretentious style of the well-known blogger Macro Man, a Yank who runs a fund in London, while LB is a Brit in New York. The symmetry appeals to LB, as does the bearish outlook and Macro market focus of MM.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Thor,
LB does that from time to time. I think it’s funny.
LB and Karen,
Were you guys hanging out the last few days, you both mysteriously went away at the same time?
Karen, nice job on the gold short, at least, I think you were doing that if I remember correct.
680???
July 8th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
LB – HAH! I’ve watched your style of posting closely since I’ve joined here so I knew there was a reason. I just couldn’t figure it out on my own. Thanks!
July 8th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I’m long MacroMan… dude is hilarious.
Also long MEH, with, comma, for, emphasis.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
” I just couldn’t figure it out on my own. Thanks!”
Are you Thor you couldn’t figure it out?
@ben: Nothing so interesting to report, LB has been carousing in the city with some fellow countrymen this week, culminating in a rather drunken karaoke episode last evening that left LB vowing never ever to drink again.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
ben22, i’m not away at all, just not posting.. yes, let my gold short go today but missed about .30 also let my dto go yesterday missing more than a few pts today, but it was still an excellent trade all in all. bot a lot today.. erx, rsx, sso, nvda…
July 8th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
PPT looks a little weak today…weight of the world and all…
SRS looks like it may be ready to commence liftoff.
Good point on the USD ….EU is QEing more than us…
There goes my JPY50 prediction for this year…LOL
Back to School Sales might be the next boot to the retail liver.
Does anyone know how to knit anymore?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Heh….maybe I spoke too soon…
July 8th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
@Christopher
Looks like the pump has begun. I’m assuming they don’t want a close below 880 (come hell or high water).
July 8th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
I wonder if the Mistress would offer us a candle on the USD? Looks like a downtrend into the close…..
July 8th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
karen-
NVDA?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
LB, i can’t get a $usd print until an hour or so after the close… UUP daily chart is still okay, nothing ominous just an indecision day with no serious negative divergence that i can see..
btw, notice our time stamps above.. couldn’t have accomplish that if we’d tried, lol.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Karen,
you were active today it sounds like. I missed more than .30 on the silver short, oh well, it was still a gain. Would also like to hear your thoughts on the dollar, I’m still bullish on it.
LB @ 3:38,
lol, had a night like that with wine about 5 months ago and haven’t been able to touch any since.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
ben! 5 months with no wine?! i’d be dead. : )
okay, so, it looks to me as tho the $ can still move up from here. oh, definitely, a close below 80.35 would change my mind.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Wine hangovers are proof that there really is a Hell.
“drunken karaoke”….is there any other kind??
July 8th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Intra-day double bottom at SPX 870, trying to close at SPX 880, which would be constructive in the short term. Odd that the market would make a beeline for 880, you have to laugh at this stuff, really.
Ben: LB was fortunate to miss the moonwalking episode, having left by that time. Some of the “Limeys” involved in the entertainment stayed out all night until the Aussie bar opened at 6am. LB needs his beauty sleep, however.
LB is feeling considerably less of a knob now that most of his dicking-around counter-trades are well in the green. Go ahead, hate on LB, you know you want to.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Me too. I drink at least a glass of wine every day.
As I expected we had a nice bounce later in the afternoon. I expect this to continue tomorrow early morning. Still holding my $FAS and $UCO longs. Watching TBT and TMV closely.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Oooh, Alcoa trading suspended.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Karen,
I’m more of a vodka drinker plus I agree with Christopher, I don’t think I ever had a hangover like that one.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
emmanuel117 – really? What does that mean?
July 8th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Could mean alot of things… trade imbalance, big unanticipated news, too many big lots trying to be moved around, etc.
One of those things that you dont know until its over, and then its usually too late to do anything about.
One thing is for certain… IT SUCKS when its something you own. Nothing worse than uncertainty and not being able to act on it.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Does anyone know how one could find the daily indices price at 3:00pm?
I’d love to see a chart of the last market hour going back at least 10 years.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
headline-
“Alcoa Loss of 26 Cents a Share Excluding One-Time Items Is Better Than Expected”
BTE- wow- never heard that before
July 8th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/05/late-day-rallies-spx-and-vix.html
Interesting.
Here’s today’s VIX.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#symbol=^VIX;range=1d
July 8th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
lb, I-Man,
Thanks for the Smile~
~~
to y’all believers of “in Vino, veritas”, best to be puttin’ up a # of Cases– sooner, rather than later..
~~
ben22,
you were asking about Ag, yesterday..
for me, below U$D 15, I accumulate Physical on a regular basis–obviously, the lower the Price, the Better.
in the Paper Mkts, for Same, was Stopped out in the upper 14’s, when it broke thru some key dma -s..
haven’t been active, that way, since..
remember, when this came up earlier, I was ‘hoping it gets driven back into the 8’s..’–for, you know, There’s Money to be Made –(be apprised, not all Mints are owned by the USG)
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/apprised
see also:
http://www.hardtimestokens.com/DanielWebster.html for starting vector..
July 8th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
@ Left:
That shit had me laughing so hard I had to post it to my facebook page!
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/07/californias-bust.html
July 8th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
@I-Man:
It’s July, got to enjoy the Silly Season through Labor Day, before it all gets Serious again in Red October™.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Vice Chairman JPMorgan says re the recovery-
“I do think we’re on the right track, but what has to happen now is Republicans, Democrats, private sector, people on the Hill, people in the White House, as Americans we all have to work together,” said Miller. ”
what nonsense- absolute meaningless statement- may as well have said we have to give it 110 percent- it’s not about us- it’s about the team-
work together? Pulease- that’s laughable- and if we work together- what he really means- is- what can we Americans do to further the interests of JPMorgan
July 8th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
AA announced Q2 results BUT did not give expectations for the rest of the year. That seems like a warning sign.
Probably explains why the Treasury announced the “fraudulent” PPIP before the market closed today.
July 8th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
@MEH,
Thanks for the comments. I figured if you were buying it would be the physical. Certainly there will be money to be made in the 8’s.
July 11th, 2009 at 11:25 am
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