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	<title>Comments on: Asian Officials Push Back Against Savings Glut Theory</title>
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	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: Von Mises is saying &#8220;We Still Don&#8217;t Get It!&#8221; &#124; The Brothers Austrian</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-190099</link>
		<dc:creator>Von Mises is saying &#8220;We Still Don&#8217;t Get It!&#8221; &#124; The Brothers Austrian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-190099</guid>
		<description>[...] I caught this on the Big Picture Blog [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] I caught this on the Big Picture Blog [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Mike in Nola</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-190034</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike in Nola</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 19:58:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-190034</guid>
		<description>Snickers:

I see what you&#039;re talking about in terms of advancing China&#039;s independence. That was the point of the Great Leap Forward, etc. The problem has come about because the current leaders now seem to think the means (export economy) is the end. They still don&#039;t see that they had to change the model at some point. They are still trying to promote the same export model now with various subsidies and currency manipulation. As Hugh Hendry pointed out in the interview linked last week, the USD/Yuan exchange rate rose just before the crash last year and has remained practucally glued at the same level since, unlike every other major currency. 
Michael Pettis writes extensively from Bejing about the Chinese economy. http://mpettis.com/

Francois T: I&#039;m not saying give our government a pass. I think I mentioned that at the beginning of my dissertation. What I am saying is that it takes two to tango when it comes to huge surpluses that occur voluntarily, as opposed to colonial systems.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Snickers:</p>
<p>I see what you&#8217;re talking about in terms of advancing China&#8217;s independence. That was the point of the Great Leap Forward, etc. The problem has come about because the current leaders now seem to think the means (export economy) is the end. They still don&#8217;t see that they had to change the model at some point. They are still trying to promote the same export model now with various subsidies and currency manipulation. As Hugh Hendry pointed out in the interview linked last week, the USD/Yuan exchange rate rose just before the crash last year and has remained practucally glued at the same level since, unlike every other major currency.<br />
Michael Pettis writes extensively from Bejing about the Chinese economy. <a href="http://mpettis.com/" rel="nofollow">http://mpettis.com/</a></p>
<p>Francois T: I&#8217;m not saying give our government a pass. I think I mentioned that at the beginning of my dissertation. What I am saying is that it takes two to tango when it comes to huge surpluses that occur voluntarily, as opposed to colonial systems.</p>
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		<title>By: Thor</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-190024</link>
		<dc:creator>Thor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:58:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-190024</guid>
		<description>So let me get this straight - most of the growth in the US over the last decade was fueled by debt, one could argue that this would be a similar description for the EU. China&#039;s growth was built on manufacturing and exports. To who? To us, and to the EU, that&#039;s who. So if our growth, ie; our CONSUMPTION was built on a debt bubble, then the manufacturer that filled the need of hit consumption was being expanded by demand built on DEBT. Explain the disconnect here . . . .What I fail to see mentioned is how China&#039;s expansion was in great part due to our debt bubbles. You cannot disconnect these two facts. 

Most growth across the entire planet over the last decade was built on a debt bubble. There is no way you can completely detach China&#039;s growth from this fact. We deflate, they deflate. They are not going to be able to increase internal consumption enough, at a fast enough pace, to offset the decrease in exports that is coming.

Lastly - Barry, why on Earth are you quoting Chinese officials in the first place? You hold no punches when it comes to accusing (quite rightly) our own officials with obfuscation of the truth - somehow information and statistics coming out of a communist totalitarian government is treated as valid?  Please.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So let me get this straight &#8211; most of the growth in the US over the last decade was fueled by debt, one could argue that this would be a similar description for the EU. China&#8217;s growth was built on manufacturing and exports. To who? To us, and to the EU, that&#8217;s who. So if our growth, ie; our CONSUMPTION was built on a debt bubble, then the manufacturer that filled the need of hit consumption was being expanded by demand built on DEBT. Explain the disconnect here . . . .What I fail to see mentioned is how China&#8217;s expansion was in great part due to our debt bubbles. You cannot disconnect these two facts. </p>
<p>Most growth across the entire planet over the last decade was built on a debt bubble. There is no way you can completely detach China&#8217;s growth from this fact. We deflate, they deflate. They are not going to be able to increase internal consumption enough, at a fast enough pace, to offset the decrease in exports that is coming.</p>
<p>Lastly &#8211; Barry, why on Earth are you quoting Chinese officials in the first place? You hold no punches when it comes to accusing (quite rightly) our own officials with obfuscation of the truth &#8211; somehow information and statistics coming out of a communist totalitarian government is treated as valid?  Please.</p>
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		<title>By: Blissex</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-190010</link>
		<dc:creator>Blissex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 16:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-190010</guid>
		<description>&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/i&gt;«&lt;i&gt;for a given capacity determines its utilization.&lt;/i&gt;»

And that is the approach of Keynes -- it is mostly centred on utilization of existing capacity rather than growing the capacity itself.

Even if Keynes wrote quite a lot about the issue of capacity, or capital development, most famously that it is driven by &quot;animal spirits&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>«<i>for a given capacity determines its utilization.</i>»</p>
<p>And that is the approach of Keynes &#8212; it is mostly centred on utilization of existing capacity rather than growing the capacity itself.</p>
<p>Even if Keynes wrote quite a lot about the issue of capacity, or capital development, most famously that it is driven by &#8220;animal spirits&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Blissex</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-190009</link>
		<dc:creator>Blissex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 15:59:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-190009</guid>
		<description>«&lt;i&gt;The fact is savings -&gt; investment -&gt; production -&gt; consumption; it’s not the other way around.&lt;i&gt;»

BOTH are true. savings -&gt; ... -&gt; consumption is the long term foundation that creates capacity; consumption -&gt; ... -&gt; savings is what happens in the short term and for a given capacity determines its utilization.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>«<i>The fact is savings -&gt; investment -&gt; production -&gt; consumption; it’s not the other way around.</i><i>»</p>
<p>BOTH are true. savings -&gt; &#8230; -&gt; consumption is the long term foundation that creates capacity; consumption -&gt; &#8230; -&gt; savings is what happens in the short term and for a given capacity determines its utilization.</i></p>
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		<title>By: danm</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-189989</link>
		<dc:creator>danm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-189989</guid>
		<description>I guess we would need to differentiate cause and blame.

Yes, the Chinese contributed to the imbalance but can the Americans blame them?  No, because each country should be defending its own interest and always expect that another country could to turn on them.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess we would need to differentiate cause and blame.</p>
<p>Yes, the Chinese contributed to the imbalance but can the Americans blame them?  No, because each country should be defending its own interest and always expect that another country could to turn on them.</p>
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		<title>By: danm</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-189983</link>
		<dc:creator>danm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:43:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-189983</guid>
		<description>For a nation that thrives on the illusion of control, it’s ironic that the US would blame China.

China will do what China thinks is good for China , not what the US thinks is good for China.

And Americans who blame Chinese are complete idiots because that means they actually believe that nations will do what is good for trade before doing what is good for their leaders or their own country.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For a nation that thrives on the illusion of control, it’s ironic that the US would blame China.</p>
<p>China will do what China thinks is good for China , not what the US thinks is good for China.</p>
<p>And Americans who blame Chinese are complete idiots because that means they actually believe that nations will do what is good for trade before doing what is good for their leaders or their own country.</p>
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		<title>By: danm</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-189982</link>
		<dc:creator>danm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:38:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-189982</guid>
		<description>For a nation that thrives on the illusion of control, it&#039;s irnoci that it would blame China.

China will do what China thinks is good for China , not waht The US thinks is good for China.

And Americans who blame Chinese are complete idiots because that means they actually believed that all nations wold do what is good for trade before doing what is good for their leaders or their nation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For a nation that thrives on the illusion of control, it&#8217;s irnoci that it would blame China.</p>
<p>China will do what China thinks is good for China , not waht The US thinks is good for China.</p>
<p>And Americans who blame Chinese are complete idiots because that means they actually believed that all nations wold do what is good for trade before doing what is good for their leaders or their nation.</p>
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		<title>By: BSNEATH</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-189979</link>
		<dc:creator>BSNEATH</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:09:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-189979</guid>
		<description>It wasn&#039;t a savings glut, it wasn&#039;t irresponsible borrowers, it wasn&#039;t Brenton Woods, it wasn&#039;t CRI, it wasn&#039;t Federal Reserve  interest rate policies.

It was the actions of Investment Bankers, both directly and through governmental influence.  Very smart people with self-centered ambitions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It wasn&#8217;t a savings glut, it wasn&#8217;t irresponsible borrowers, it wasn&#8217;t Brenton Woods, it wasn&#8217;t CRI, it wasn&#8217;t Federal Reserve  interest rate policies.</p>
<p>It was the actions of Investment Bankers, both directly and through governmental influence.  Very smart people with self-centered ambitions.</p>
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		<title>By: How the Common Man Sees It</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/asian-officials-push-back-against-savings-glut-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-189969</link>
		<dc:creator>How the Common Man Sees It</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31032#comment-189969</guid>
		<description>It is amazing how two pundits can stand on different sides of the economic elephant with one seeing a tiny rope and another seeing a big gray wall.  It wasn&#039;t a savings glut. It was a fiat currency printing glut brought about by unnaturally low interest rates worldwide. That caused too many dollars to chase too few goods which drove the price of &lt;i&gt;everything&lt;/i&gt; up to unsustainable levels. We now here sit on this mountain of money and debt. No one wants to move and the holders of the debt &lt;i&gt;especially&lt;/i&gt; don&#039;t want us to move lest the assets start sliding down the slippery money slope. The only problem is no one has any more money to either take the assets off the money pile or push them higher in value. So we all sit here. The governments of the world continue to print. The rest of us muddle through paying and praying off debt and saving money as fast as possible hoping the Joker doesn&#039;t dump that can of gas on the whole lot and light the match</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is amazing how two pundits can stand on different sides of the economic elephant with one seeing a tiny rope and another seeing a big gray wall.  It wasn&#8217;t a savings glut. It was a fiat currency printing glut brought about by unnaturally low interest rates worldwide. That caused too many dollars to chase too few goods which drove the price of <i>everything</i> up to unsustainable levels. We now here sit on this mountain of money and debt. No one wants to move and the holders of the debt <i>especially</i> don&#8217;t want us to move lest the assets start sliding down the slippery money slope. The only problem is no one has any more money to either take the assets off the money pile or push them higher in value. So we all sit here. The governments of the world continue to print. The rest of us muddle through paying and praying off debt and saving money as fast as possible hoping the Joker doesn&#8217;t dump that can of gas on the whole lot and light the match</p>
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