It appears that Bank Failures are accelerating, at least according to this chart from Ron Griess of The Chart Store:
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Feb 18th totaled 351k, 4k less than expected but the prior week was revised up by 3k to 351k. The 4 week average did fall to 359k from 366k, the lowest since Mar '08. Continuing Claims fell by 52k to the lowest since Aug '08. Also, Extended Benefits fell a net 69k. Bottom line, the data still points to a labor market that continues to improve however lumpy the process feels for many. ...
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July 28th, 2009 at 6:48 am
If there were 25 in ’09 and now the number has nearly tripled in ’09 to 64. At this rate there will be 164 in ’10, 419 in ’11, 1,074 in ’12, 2,749 in ’13, 7,037 in ’14, 18,’014 in ’15 and the 46,117 in ’16 would wipe all the banks in the US and then some.
So load up on US CDS that pay off in euros, yen, pesos …anything but Federal Reserve notes. The end is nye
July 28th, 2009 at 6:54 am
Never extrapolate into infinity!
July 28th, 2009 at 7:02 am
[...] Bank failures accelerating. (TBP) [...]
July 28th, 2009 at 7:28 am
Barry,
Why does there seem to be what amount to spam links almost every comments section? Example is:
“Breakfast Links: Housing Bottoms, Car Wars & Pigs in the Hamptons « The Reformed Broker Says: ”
The comment itself has no content, but just seems to be a way to get people to another site. While some of our regular posters’ user names link to their own sites, they leave comments of substance.
July 28th, 2009 at 8:05 am
Look on the bright side…they used GREEN for the bars…
July 28th, 2009 at 8:08 am
@VennData
If you get bored waiting for the recovery, at least we know you’re capable of wiling away the hours calculating Pi to the “n to the 10th” digit…
July 28th, 2009 at 8:33 am
“Number of banks,” what about the volumn of their combined assets/liabilities compared to “94, or “32? Is this really an apples to apples comparison when in reality this time around the FED has propped up the mega banks with gazillions???
July 28th, 2009 at 8:35 am
If you assume that bank failures will continue at the average rate of the the first half, you get about 100 bank failures this year. My guess is that bank failures are going to accelerate as CRE losses hit home among the small to mid-sized banks. So we could end up with in excess of 150 failures this year : using the average number of failures for the last 4 weeks (4.75) during the remaining 21 weeks of this year yields an estimated 100 failures in what’s left of 2009 – and that assumes that the failure rate doesn’t increase further.
July 28th, 2009 at 8:38 am
@JustinTheSkeptic: I agree that it would be more meaningful to look at the share of failed banks’ assets as a percentage of the banking system’s total assets. I don’t know how easy it would be to construct a time series for this stretching back to 1929. Moreover, historical comparison would be complicated by off balance sheet assets, which have increased tremendously over the last 20 years or so due to the rise of securitisation.
July 28th, 2009 at 8:53 am
BB and Turbo Tim have circled the 19 TBTF wagons and everybody outside is shit outta luck. GMAC was granted perpetual life but not GM, amazing.
July 28th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Not really much of a surprise. The surprise — if there is one — is that there are not a whole lot more banks that are dying, and I attribute this to the demise of mark-to-market accounting, which is doubtless leaving lots of dead banks aimlessly roaming the prairies, howling at the moon as the deep winter of CRE default approaches.
If one drives the velocity of money to zero, economic activity eventually ceases, and the smaller banks are the canaries in the coal mine.
This is why we have the unceasing happytalk “strategy”, with green shoots prouting everywhere, when in rality, NOTHING HAS CHANGED. We still have basically the same people (GS, JPM, etc) running the same scams (CDS, HFT, etc) using unlimited leverage, with the American taxpayer taking the hit for their mistakes. The intent is to sucker in the sideline money, and to convince the consumer that it’s OK to spend like it’s 2007 once again.
However, despite the misleading financial news propaganda, they sheeple see all around them the signs of their fellow sheeple being eaten alive via foreclosure, layoffs, evaporation of retirement funds, soaring health care and education costs, and they are not about to move away from their stretegy (really, the only course availble to them) of paying down debt and cutting expenses, which only reduces the movement of money in the system.
If we had seen a REAL* stimulus, instead of the nonsense that masqueraded as one, the administration might have a chance (only a chance) at success, but in reality, the only thing that is going to change things is for the old corrupt business practices to be swept away, and a new era of transparency to be ushered in. But transparency is the Last Thing on Earth that our political leaders and their bankster masters, want to see.
Eventually, the creeping slowdown will start causing larger banks to seize up, climbing all the way to the ones most deserving of dissolution. It’s just a pity that they will be the last ones to go, rather than the first. So much needless destruction.
(*REAL stimulus = one that funneled money to the bottom of the economic pyramid via infrastructure spending and the like, rather than wasting it in the myriad ways that it was deployed)
July 28th, 2009 at 11:05 am
@ Mike in Nola 7:28 am
I have come to the conclusion (without the aid of actual data) that these are a perverse form of advertising sold by TBP in order to help maintain the site. Kinda like the (much more innocuous) text ads one finds on the right side of Google search results.
July 28th, 2009 at 11:50 am
I’m sure we will all be shocked, shocked if the findings bear out what we all know:
Speculators Played Key Role in Oil Price Hike: Chilton
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32183731
July 28th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
So till now 64 banks failed this year.
Out of these 64, 36 banks had failed in 3 states only.
Georgia -> 16
Illinois -> 12
California -> 8
Now if go into more details you can find that California has the most number of big bank failures, while Georgia has most number of medium sized bank failures.
For California, there are 8 failures this year with total 13 banks failed since 2008.
Of this 13 failures , 8 banks were with the assets of more than $1 billion.
4 medium sized banks with assets between $100 million and $1 billion.
And only 1 small bank with assets less than $100 million.
http://portalseven.com/finance/Failed_Banks_State_Wise.jsp?state=CA
Now if go into more details you can find that California has most number of big bank failures.
For Georgia, there are 16 failures this year with total 21 banks failed since 2008.
Of this 21 failures , 3 banks were with the assets of more than $1 billion.
And remaining 18 medium sized banks with assets between $100 million and $1 billion.
http://portalseven.com/finance/Failed_Banks_State_Wise.jsp?state=GA
For Illinois, there are 12 failures this year with total 13 banks failed since 2008.
Of this 13 failures , 8 banks were with the assets between $100 million and $1 billion.
And remaining 5 small sized banks with assets less than $100 million.
http://portalseven.com/finance/Failed_Banks_State_Wise.jsp?state=IL
July 28th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
[...] failures in 2009. From the Chart Store via The Big Picture. [...]