Historically, Commercial Real Estate lags Residential by about 2 years. Here is what the past 10 years look like:
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Geez, today seems to be all about RE.
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Source:
The CRE disaster
Rolfe Winkler
Reuters, July 23rd, 2009
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/07/23/the-cre-disaster-comparing-with-residential/
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Signs continue that European markets are getting tired. The Spanish and Italian stock markets, big beneficiaries of the sharp decline in their bond yields over the past few months are falling to the lowest since Feb 1. The European bank index is at a 1 1/2 week low after earnings reports from Commerzbank and Credit Ag (RBS bouncing although reporting weaker than expected earnings) were disappointing. This market action is in spite of the German IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 7 month high coming in a touch above expectations and Italian consumer confidence which bounced more than...
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July 24th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
That looks like a V-bottom to me. V as in VERY NASTY.
July 24th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Barry, both you and your fusion team has called this bottom very nicely back in March. Congratulations!
If you don’t mind, do you think this is a new bull, or is it ready to top out and at what point?
Many Thanks!
July 27th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Look at the 15 year chart. Another 15% to drop if it doesn’t overshoot. With rising unemployment and lower incomes it might. In which case, perhaps another 25%. Then how will Cramer explain how his bottom call was really all about saving us money?
July 27th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
LOOK OUT FOR THE CLIFF!!!!! Ooops. too late. How’s is the fed going to fix the CRE situation given the acute collapse looming on the horizon. They’ve been really kicking this can down the road. But looks to me like the rocks below are rapidly approaching.
July 27th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
It would appear to me that the BROWN line is the terrain, and the BLUE line is Wil E. Coyote…
July 27th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
…in need of an ACME jetpack…that WORKS…soon!
July 27th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Reversion to the mean (which is not really visible on the charts) can be a real bitch. And as many have observed before, means don’t get to be means unless the actual reversion overshoots as much on the downside as it did on the upside.