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	<title>Comments on: Deeply Oversold Bounce, Not Green Shoots</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
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		<title>By: Simon</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190381</link>
		<dc:creator>Simon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:44:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190381</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve been thinking about BR&#039;s 80% long call. Could &quot;cash like&quot; assets be considered long. Is it possible BR has piled into precious metals and miners? It seems unlikely to me at first glance.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been thinking about BR&#8217;s 80% long call. Could &#8220;cash like&#8221; assets be considered long. Is it possible BR has piled into precious metals and miners? It seems unlikely to me at first glance.</p>
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		<title>By: farmera1</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190293</link>
		<dc:creator>farmera1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:03:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190293</guid>
		<description>&quot;You can never underestimate the absurdity of the after-the-fact rationales people come up with to explain and justify market action.&quot;


I especially like the idiots that get on TV and try to explain why the market is up 100 points or down 100 points for the day.  And the answer is in reality:  RANDOM NOISE
By definition there is no explanation (or assignable cause in the lingo of statistics) .

But day after day after day, the fools get up and say the markets went up today because of this or that or what ever.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;You can never underestimate the absurdity of the after-the-fact rationales people come up with to explain and justify market action.&#8221;</p>
<p>I especially like the idiots that get on TV and try to explain why the market is up 100 points or down 100 points for the day.  And the answer is in reality:  RANDOM NOISE<br />
By definition there is no explanation (or assignable cause in the lingo of statistics) .</p>
<p>But day after day after day, the fools get up and say the markets went up today because of this or that or what ever.</p>
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		<title>By: call me ahab</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190247</link>
		<dc:creator>call me ahab</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:24:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190247</guid>
		<description>matt-

thanks for the feedback- you may be right-  not sure myself-  but I guess my bigger question is if the banning of leveraged ETF&#039;s is the next proposal- especially the short variety- as postulated by Jim Cramer</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>matt-</p>
<p>thanks for the feedback- you may be right-  not sure myself-  but I guess my bigger question is if the banning of leveraged ETF&#8217;s is the next proposal- especially the short variety- as postulated by Jim Cramer</p>
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		<title>By: constantnormal</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190235</link>
		<dc:creator>constantnormal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:06:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190235</guid>
		<description>crap.  I posted this in the wrong item.  Apologies to all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>crap.  I posted this in the wrong item.  Apologies to all.</p>
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		<title>By: constantnormal</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190233</link>
		<dc:creator>constantnormal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:04:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190233</guid>
		<description>OK, F411 -- let&#039;s look at the numbers ... (sorry for the formatting, or lack thereof)

                        June  May  April March   Feb   Jan   Dec
NMI/PMI          47.0  44.0  43.7  40.8  41.6  42.9  40.1
Bus Activity     49.8  42.4  45.2  44.1  40.2  44.2  38.9
New Orders       48.6  44.4  47.0  38.8  40.7  41.6  38.9
Backlog Orders   46.0  40.0  44.0  41.0  36.5  37.5  42.5
New Export Ords  54.5  47.0  48.5  39.0  40.0  39.0  39.5
Inventory Sent   67.0  62.5  62.5  60.0  66.5  62.5  65.5
Imports          47.0  46.0  48.5  37.0  39.0  40.5  32.5
Prices Index     53.7  46.9  40.0  39.1  48.1  42.5  36.1
Employment       43.4  39.0  37.0  32.3  37.3  34.4  34.5
Supplier Delivs  46.0  50.0  45.5  48.0  48.0  51.5  48.0

Remember that numbers below 50 represent &lt;b&gt;contraction&lt;/b&gt;, not expansion.

Contracting more slowly does not equal expanding.

We could just as easily see everything turning lower in coming months as higher -- in fact, it&#039;s more likely, due to the deepening problems with defaults and unemployment.  These things do not stimulate demand or confidence.  The best series of numbers in the above set seems to be &quot;Inventory sent&quot;, and an increasing amount of inventory depletion might be bullish for future prospects, but only if demand does not slacken further.  The most bullish item that I see is the Export numbers, which is weakly bullish at best, but in contrast with our past export performance, are rather good.  But given the difficulties that our foreign customers are in, the one-month above-50 performance in Exports is likely to be an aberration rather than the beginnings of a trend.

But pretty much everything else really sucks.  No green shoots apparent.

There.  I looked at, and commented on, the data.  Happy?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK, F411 &#8212; let&#8217;s look at the numbers &#8230; (sorry for the formatting, or lack thereof)</p>
<p>                        June  May  April March   Feb   Jan   Dec<br />
NMI/PMI          47.0  44.0  43.7  40.8  41.6  42.9  40.1<br />
Bus Activity     49.8  42.4  45.2  44.1  40.2  44.2  38.9<br />
New Orders       48.6  44.4  47.0  38.8  40.7  41.6  38.9<br />
Backlog Orders   46.0  40.0  44.0  41.0  36.5  37.5  42.5<br />
New Export Ords  54.5  47.0  48.5  39.0  40.0  39.0  39.5<br />
Inventory Sent   67.0  62.5  62.5  60.0  66.5  62.5  65.5<br />
Imports          47.0  46.0  48.5  37.0  39.0  40.5  32.5<br />
Prices Index     53.7  46.9  40.0  39.1  48.1  42.5  36.1<br />
Employment       43.4  39.0  37.0  32.3  37.3  34.4  34.5<br />
Supplier Delivs  46.0  50.0  45.5  48.0  48.0  51.5  48.0</p>
<p>Remember that numbers below 50 represent <b>contraction</b>, not expansion.</p>
<p>Contracting more slowly does not equal expanding.</p>
<p>We could just as easily see everything turning lower in coming months as higher &#8212; in fact, it&#8217;s more likely, due to the deepening problems with defaults and unemployment.  These things do not stimulate demand or confidence.  The best series of numbers in the above set seems to be &#8220;Inventory sent&#8221;, and an increasing amount of inventory depletion might be bullish for future prospects, but only if demand does not slacken further.  The most bullish item that I see is the Export numbers, which is weakly bullish at best, but in contrast with our past export performance, are rather good.  But given the difficulties that our foreign customers are in, the one-month above-50 performance in Exports is likely to be an aberration rather than the beginnings of a trend.</p>
<p>But pretty much everything else really sucks.  No green shoots apparent.</p>
<p>There.  I looked at, and commented on, the data.  Happy?</p>
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		<title>By: aitrader</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190229</link>
		<dc:creator>aitrader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:55:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190229</guid>
		<description>The green shoots folks have always been irrationally exuberant in my book. We need at least a Q of mediocre to good figures before anyone can start discussing fresh veggies. That said the markets the last 6 months have become remarkably predictable.Nice stuff for quant shops like BR&#039;s.

Oh, and personally I prefer sex. Rationalized or not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The green shoots folks have always been irrationally exuberant in my book. We need at least a Q of mediocre to good figures before anyone can start discussing fresh veggies. That said the markets the last 6 months have become remarkably predictable.Nice stuff for quant shops like BR&#8217;s.</p>
<p>Oh, and personally I prefer sex. Rationalized or not.</p>
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		<title>By: Andy T</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190227</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:51:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190227</guid>
		<description>Left.  You&#039;r reading my mind.  I&#039;m short, and it looks bad, but I have to wait for the 909-914 to add on....maybe we don&#039;t get there, but it&#039;s been such a sharp move lower with no correction, it seem &quot;due&quot; to get some sort of small bounce....If all we get is some sort of pathetic bounce, because we&#039;ve got a real wallop coming, it may not be able to get above 904.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Left.  You&#8217;r reading my mind.  I&#8217;m short, and it looks bad, but I have to wait for the 909-914 to add on&#8230;.maybe we don&#8217;t get there, but it&#8217;s been such a sharp move lower with no correction, it seem &#8220;due&#8221; to get some sort of small bounce&#8230;.If all we get is some sort of pathetic bounce, because we&#8217;ve got a real wallop coming, it may not be able to get above 904.</p>
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		<title>By: matt</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190219</link>
		<dc:creator>matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:36:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190219</guid>
		<description>@call me ahab:

I think that most of the inverse ETFs are using futures, equity swaps, and other derivatives for their positions. Someone correct me if I&#039;m wrong, but that implies (to me) that reinstatement of the uptick rule will have no direct effect.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@call me ahab:</p>
<p>I think that most of the inverse ETFs are using futures, equity swaps, and other derivatives for their positions. Someone correct me if I&#8217;m wrong, but that implies (to me) that reinstatement of the uptick rule will have no direct effect.</p>
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		<title>By: CapitalistCanuck</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190216</link>
		<dc:creator>CapitalistCanuck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:33:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190216</guid>
		<description>cvienne 

Agreed, crude is down $9 from $73 peak 2 weeks ago, we should find support here...lot&#039;s of energy bulls left. I also don&#039;t believe the bulls are ready to roll over yet, S&amp;P should breakout if even for one last ditch effort.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>cvienne </p>
<p>Agreed, crude is down $9 from $73 peak 2 weeks ago, we should find support here&#8230;lot&#8217;s of energy bulls left. I also don&#8217;t believe the bulls are ready to roll over yet, S&amp;P should breakout if even for one last ditch effort.</p>
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		<title>By: cvienne</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/deeply-oversold-bounce-not-green-shoots/comment-page-1/#comment-190215</link>
		<dc:creator>cvienne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=31146#comment-190215</guid>
		<description>@leftback, I-Man, Andy T

On the &quot;high side&quot; now I see the 910 area on the S&amp;P...

Look back to 12/18/08, 12/31/08, 1/9/09, 1/12/09, 5/4/09, 5/26-28/09, 7/2/09...

The chart CLEARLY has been avoiding filling in those areas...I say they need to be filled before we break down and move lower (eventually take out 880)...The S&amp;P will have a week or so to do this with crude bouncing off a technical low, and $$ accumulates in the short end of the YC...

There is also YEN buying (vs. dollar &amp; Euro)...Repaid carry trades?

...IMO, about 2 weeks of dicking around between 883 &amp; 910, then we make the big break down...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@leftback, I-Man, Andy T</p>
<p>On the &#8220;high side&#8221; now I see the 910 area on the S&amp;P&#8230;</p>
<p>Look back to 12/18/08, 12/31/08, 1/9/09, 1/12/09, 5/4/09, 5/26-28/09, 7/2/09&#8230;</p>
<p>The chart CLEARLY has been avoiding filling in those areas&#8230;I say they need to be filled before we break down and move lower (eventually take out 880)&#8230;The S&amp;P will have a week or so to do this with crude bouncing off a technical low, and $$ accumulates in the short end of the YC&#8230;</p>
<p>There is also YEN buying (vs. dollar &amp; Euro)&#8230;Repaid carry trades?</p>
<p>&#8230;IMO, about 2 weeks of dicking around between 883 &amp; 910, then we make the big break down&#8230;</p>
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