“Somebody in government predicting lower initial claims for the next two weeks”

initial claims today were reported lower…

What a BEAUTIFUL THING the 4 day workweek does…

Near the end of the Roman Empire, there were something like 255 out of 365 days a year dedicated as ‘holidays’ to go to the Colisseum and be entertained with Gladiator fights…What a WONDERFUL thing that does to quell the rising unemployment angst…

Dig your timing outlook. One note, saw an articles on CNBC this morning. Somebody in government predicting lower initial claims for the next two weeks due to seasonal adjustments of some kind. May prop us up past OPEX.

Very entertaining!

@oblom
“I’d say we are looking for at least 9 month of deflationary winds”…

I’m with you on that…I even think you got the timeframe correct…It could perhaps go longer, but something tells me that Larry Summers is the next Fed Chief…I think THAT alone will kill the dollar…So all the INFLATIONISTAS will get their hats handed to them for the balance of ’09 while we all hang out in Govvies, and then when they’ve given up and started crying “deflation”, we’ll pick up their shares…

@Capitalist Canuck
“I’m thinking about buying some FAS 9 calls tomorrow. JPM/BAC and GS all reporting next week”

I wrote something to I-man the other week that outlined several points, one of them was that I didn’t have any sense AT ALL with respect to banks…So personally, I don’t see a point in jumping in front of the bank reporting…I’d rather wait until AFTER they report and fade the move…

Here’s the thing: If the stocks pop on fishy reporting, they’ll come back to earth…If they DON’T DO ANYTHING on what seems to be correct news, then you’ll know that the game is up and you’d better start seriously positioning yourself for the fall FALL…If they drop, wait out the drop, let them come back, THEN fade them…

The bottom line (the way I see it), is this…Since 956, the S&P is reversing HARD off of tops, yet sputtering and coughing when it hits support levels…Moreover, the support levels always seem to get hit a few trading days before EVENTS (like end of quarter, or opex)…It tell s me that this market is going DOWN when nobody is looking…perhaps August, with major support beginning to be broken as early as the end of July…

Oil is “almost” in bear mode as it is closing in on 20%…Even gold can’t break $1,000 (and I don’t think will) for ’09…

The move to the YEN was very fast…That screams “carry trade” speculation in commodities back into pictures of poets & bacteriologists (or whoevers face is on the Yen these days)…And did everyone see how well the TBill auction went?

So I think we have one more shot to take a peek over 900 while the recent “unwindings” back and fill and the banks report whatever the hell they want…but after that………….

http://swamplot.com/just-couldnt-say-goodbye-ottos-back-from-the-edge-of-the-market/2009-07-08/

Why stop at $10,000 a month? Make it a million dollar lump sum per family and you have an instant boom economy with money left over to pay those pesky credit card bills! Then give each family a Cadillac Escalade, courtesy of Government Motors…that’s creating American jobs.

I’m a deflationist too…but I’m just not concerned that the banks aren’t lending, it’s the markets natural response. The REAL credit crises is for unqualified borrowers – I think we all agree to that. The credit report today showed fewer people using credit and more are paying down debt, I suppose it’s a bad thing in this type of economy…I forgot what the point was…I’m outta here, hope we see a positive jobs report tomorrow or I won’t be taking vacation in August lol

You’re probably correct about the economics; but it’s all about the politics.

Benefit the few at the expense of the many.

That, to a large extent, is what government is all about.